Racing Chat Saturday15th May

[yossa6133]

7:20 Uttox, Hills priced this up early and have Wye Aye at 4/1, which seems generous if you can get on with them! Won last 2 chases doing handsprings despite not really settling last time at Newcastle. Back over hurdles off 107 (rated 120 over fences now, and last racing post rating was 124). Doesn't always work out switching back to hurdles but obvious chance if adapting.

[The Brigadier]

An interesting days racing and here’s my thoughts on the days ITV televised races in chronological order:-

 

1.50 Newbury

The ground was on the definite soft side on Friday and with more showers forecast it wouldn’t be the greatest shock were the ground to ride quite testing today. Andrew Balding is in terrific form and his Tactical looks the most likely winner here dropping back in trip having won the Free Handicap over 7f last time. My concern with him is the fact that he flopped a couple of times as a juvenile on soft ground and under a 3lb penalty I’m against him. The obvious threat to him is the Godolphin runner Creative Force who’s won two Newmarket handicaps this season, both on fast ground and he too has questions to answer on this ground. I’ll take on the pair of them with last years Super Sprint winner at the track in Richard Hannon’s Happy Romance who although not ideally suited by soft ground himself just may get away with it here and at the prices is a tentative selection.

 

HAPPY ROMANCE 1 point win @ 6/1 Paddy Power

 

2.05 Newmarket

Ed Dunlops’s superbly bred John Leeper, one of my 20 to follow, for the season was ultra impressive on his re-appearance at Newcastle when well supported. He was way back at half way and came through to make some nice horses from big yards looked like selling platers. This is a big step up in class but with breeding of Frankel out of Snow Fairy he was always going to be fast tracked into pattern company. His future entries tell you how much his connections rate him as he is entered in the English and Irish Derbies, Coral Eclipse as well as the King Edward VII stakes at Royal Ascot. Named after the trainers illustrious father John he can put himself in the frame for some bigger targets by taking this. I’m hoping his price will drift as he seems rather too short currently compared with the likes of 106 rated Chester Vase third Fancy Man and Tasman Bay who’s Newbury third to Dante winner Hurricane Lane  and Dee Stakes runner up Maximal looking top form.

 

JOHN LEEPER 2 points win @ 6/4 Bet365

 

2.25 Newbury

Al Aasy was mightily impressive when running away with the Group 3 John Porter Stakes on his re-appearance when well backed. He’s got winning form on soft ground and will be hard to beat here. His main danger is the 2019 St Leger winner Logistic but things haven’t gone to plan for him since and by all accounts has plenty of issues. He’s also got an absence to overcome and I’m just hoping that he does run here (there’s rumours that he will miss this if further rain arrives) as he will make the market for the exciting William Haggas trained selection. Hes the days Nap bet.

 

AL AASY 4 points win @ Evens William Hill

 

2.40 Newmarket

Sometimes in racing you see a horse that blows you away and you just know that you’ve seen a quality racehorse. Such was the case when Jane Chapple-Hyam’s Awtaad filly made her debut at the Craven meeting here. She scooting clear coming out of the dip to put 7 lengths between herself and the remainder. That form hasn’t worked out particularly well but you can only win what’s in front of you and her shrewd trainer was very complimentary about her afterwards. She’s been given some fancy future entries recently and can take this race en route to Group company.

 

BELLOSA 3 points win @ 7/4 William Hill

 

3.00 Newbury

The London Gold Cup has thrown up many decent future Group performers in the past including Defoe, Headman, Al Kazeem and Time Test. This years renewal looks well up to standard with plenty of promising three year olds. None more so than the Sir Michael Stoute trained Bay Bridge who impressed when running away with a 5 runner novice stakes event at Newcastle in April (well beaten 3rd won handicap since). He’s been allotted a mark of 90 and that could be very attractive. Interestingly he’s the only horse in the field of 11 who has a future group entry. He was put in the Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot only a fortnight ago, surely a tip in itself. There are plenty of potential dangers from big stables but I’m sticking with the Ryan Moore ridden colt.

 

BAY BRIDGE 3 points win @ 4/1 Betfred

 

Newmarket 3.15

A competitive 17 runner handicap over 6 furlongs that is always worth following. A confident selection is the Eve Johnson Houghton trained Jumby who went into plenty of trackers when desperately unlucky when failing to find a run in a decent handicap over course and distance won by Creative Force at the Craven meeting back in April. He can run off of the same mark here and with William Buick taking over from Charlie Bishop looks sure to run a massive race. His recent Group 1 entry in the Commonwealth Cup augurs well for the future and although favourite he can take this. Bickerstaffe is the other runner here who has a future Group entry (Commonwealth Cup) and maybe the best of the rest.

 

JUMBY 3 points win @ 3/1 Bet365

 

3.35 Newbury

This year’s Lockinge has attracted a decent field of 12 and a very short favourite in the John and Thady Gosden trained Palace Pier who will be hard to beat but is priced accordingly at around the 4/6 mark. He should win but with Paddy Power paying 4 places at a fifth the odds it’s worth picking one to play each way. With the ground riding on the slow side its maybe worth a speculative small stakes each way bet on the Simon & Ed Crisford trained Century Dream who’s two from three at the track, loves the mud and has won first time up before . On official ratings he actually only has 9lb to find with the warm favourite and can be backed at a decent price. If it did rain further overnight I would be inclined to back him in the ‘without fav’ market each way as he does look overpriced especially if the ground went very soft. James Doyle rides.

 

CENTURY DREAM 1/2 point each way @ 18/1 Paddy Power 1/5th odds 1234

1 point each way (without Palace Pier market) 11/1 1/5 odds 123 Bet365

 

 

 

[Algeria business strategy]

Barney's Bay EW @ 12/1

15.15 Newmarket - Heed Your Hunch At Betway Handicap Paying 6 places instead of 4 Win

Tamborrada EW @ 5/1 15.00 Newbury - London Gold Cup - Paying 4 places instead of 3 Win

French De Guye EW @ 28/1 19.50 Uttoxeter - Paying 4 Places instead of 3 Win

Charlie Arthur EW @ 7/1 20.35 Doncaster

Lucky15 each way. £0.15 = £4.50.

[Hotspur88]

1105 Nantes Al Halwa 11/10

1725 Auteuil Lord Chart 11/4

1105 Al Halwa & 1725 Lord Chart 7/1 win double 

 

1330 Newmarket Before Dawn 15/8

1405 Newmarket Fancy Man 9/4 (very annoying as was given John Leeper two days ago and was then given Fancy Man first thing from my other contact. I have decided to side with my better contact and back Fancy Man 9/4)

1535 Newbury Century Dream 22/1 e/w (was told to have a small go on this if the rain continued to fall)

Been given two more which are both quite short but been told to wait on the weather so I'll add those depending on the forecast later this morning. 

 

[Bathtime For Rupert]

All prices Bet365:

1.35 Thirsk - 1pt e/w Lezardrieux @ 10/1

2.10 Thirsk - 1pt win Rum Runner @ 7/1

2.45 Thirsk - 1pt e/w Another Batt @ 12/1

3.00 Newbury - 1pt e/w Oz Legend @ 15/2

3.15 Newmarket - 2pts win Jumby @ 3/1

4.30 Thirsk - 1pt e/w Sin E Shekells @ 20/1

4.45 Newbury - 1pt e/w Plantadream @ 8/1

[roger2256]

May -1

1 pt level stakes win only 

19.20 Utt Wye Aye 11/4 b365 

[cannotbebeat]

Thirsk

1.00 Diamond Pearl 2/1 - Lost

1.35 Boundless Power 7/5 - Lost

3.20 Auriferous 15/8 - Lost

3.55 Commanche Falls 9/5 - Lost

Bangor

1.40 Furius De Ciergues 15/8 - Lost

2.50 Armattiekan 13/8 NR

Newbury

1.50 Creative Force 9/4 - Won 9/4

2.25 Logician 13/8 - Lost

4.10 Sea Empress 13/8 - Lost

Newmarket

1.30 Before Dawn 2/1 - Lost

4.25 Mellow Magic 6/4 - Lost

Lots of small doubles not going big today.

Good luck all CNBB.

That lot makes terrible reading. Was not expecting so many losses.

Edited May 15, 2021 by cannotbebeat

[The Equaliser]

Not much time to look today

4.30 Thirsk Leo Davinci £2.50 win at 11.00 (matched) Absolute dream £2.50 at 10.00 (um 8.4) and cover bet on Hijacked (HD) £2 at 3.55.  In very good form but has a lot of weight.  Poss £7 staked.  Will check back later on Absolute Dream's odds.  The market plays all kinds of tricks. May have to accept lower odds but we will see

7.50 Uttox Ever So Cool £5 win at 5.1 = £20.09 if it wins.  Hopefully another winner for the Skelton duo.  Much favoured in all the main sporting press, haha.

 

Edited May 15, 2021 by The Equaliser
UPDATE

[azzybear]

sundance kid 2.15 sounds of springs 3.05 

[The Equaliser]

31 minutes ago, azzybear said:

sundance kid 2.15 sounds of springs 3.05 

Many thanks for your contribution but is it possible to put a brief description for the track in future e.g. Ban & Nav. so it is easier for interested members to check out your selections.  

[azzybear]

you can check them on atr site and decide your own opinions of them they will give you all you need to know many thanks

[MCLARKE]

Flat selection

Newmarket 5.00

SAAHEQ 7/2

[Hotspur88]

3 hours ago, Barnes1882 said:

1105 Nantes Al Halwa 11/10

1725 Auteuil Lord Chart 11/4

1105 Al Halwa & 1725 Lord Chart 7/1 win double 

 

1330 Newmarket Before Dawn 15/8

1405 Newmarket Fancy Man 9/4 (very annoying as was given John Leeper two days ago and was then given Fancy Man first thing from my other contact. I have decided to side with my better contact and back Fancy Man 9/4)

1535 Newbury Century Dream 22/1 e/w (was told to have a small go on this if the rain continued to fall)

Been given two more which are both quite short but been told to wait on the weather so I'll add those depending on the forecast later this morning. 

 

Bad start with the first French coming 2nd. 

Few more for today, slightly behind as been sorting out the new job so odds may now be different....

1350 Newbury Tactical 9/4

1425 Newbury Al Aasy 11/8

1515 Newmarket Jumby 3/1

[MCLARKE]

A quick look at the trends for the London Gold Cup Handicap at Newbury.

58 ran less than 36 days ago and only 2 won. This leaves just 2, TAMBORRADA and BAY BRIDGE.

Not much else so I'll stick with these, BAY BRIDGE is best priced 11/4 with BET VICTOR so I'll back this each way as they are offering 4 places. 

TAMBORRADA is available at 13/2 with UNIBET.

[cannotbebeat]

5.35 Doncaster Eloquent Dancer 85/40

7.20 Uttoxeter Wye Aye 100/30

7.50 Uttoxeter Ever So Cool 3/1

Good luck all CNBB. Help me Rhonda help, help me Rhonda.

Edited May 15, 2021 by cannotbebeat

[Offramp]

TBH, I followed two people here which gave me

JOHN LEEPER

AL AASY

BAY BRIDGE

LEO DAVINCI.

That was @TheBrigadierand @theequaliser.

I did a Lucky15 EW and it came out as (in order) W W W Place. Total result about 3-1.

[Wildgarden]

805 doncaster music society 6.6

835 doncaster little india 10.0

matchbook

[Wildgarden]

2 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

805 doncaster music society 6.6 2nd

835 doncaster little india 10.0 nowhere

matchbook

nearly profit -2

Edited May 15, 2021 by Wildgarden

[The Equaliser]

13 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Not much time to look today

4.30 Thirsk Leo Davinci £2.50 win at 11.00 (matched) Absolute dream £2.50 at 10.00 (um 8.4) and cover bet on Hijacked (HD) £2 at 3.55.  In very good form but has a lot of weight.  Poss £7 staked.  Will check back later on Absolute Dream's odds.  The market plays all kinds of tricks. May have to accept lower odds but we will see

7.50 Uttox Ever So Cool £5 win at 5.1 = £20.09 if it wins.  Hopefully another winner for the Skelton duo.  Much favoured in all the main sporting press, haha.

 

RESULTS UPDATE

Hollie Doyle won on Hijacked so my bet on Leo Davinci got scuppered as it came second.  At least Ever So Cool won for me. This resulted in a net profit of £20.19 on the day and my new balance is now £922.00 (Bank £1056.22)

I was overwhelmed by all the great jockeys out at Newbury today.  Should have had faith that William Buick would produce some winners which he did.

Only two UK meetings tomorrow, Tom Marquand has some interesting rides at Ripon.