Racing Chat - Friday 5th February

[kroni]

Alkaraama @ 2/1 Jebel Ali 11:15

Firnas @ 15/8 Jebel Ali 12:15

prices Bet365

 

[cannotbebeat]

Had a real disaster of a day (Thursday). Keeping it simple today.

2.30 Catterick Gypsy Lee Rose 100/30 Paddy power £20

4.05 Catterick Donladd 2/1 Paddy Power £20

Good luck all and me CNBB.

[alancraik]

todays top rated selections


CATTERICK 14:00 Dadsintrouble 9/1 e/w 3 Places

CATTERICK 14:30 Carrolls Milan 11/5 win

CATTERICK 15:00 Ripper Roo 10/11 win (nb # 16)

[Zilzalian]

For those who like to back a fav (which i don't) 12:15 at Jebel Ali Firnas put a standout time in last time out and 15/8 is an unbelievable price to me. 99 points (a wheel barrow jobby) win in this quarter.

[Zilzalian]

Just now, Zilzalian said:

For those who like to back a fav (which i don't) 12:15 at Jebel Ali Firnas put a standout time in last time out and 15/8 is an unbelievable price to me. 99 points (a wheel barrow jobby) win in this quarter.

I will add-by my book should be odds on (4/6?)

[The Equaliser]

1.00 Catt Homme Public £7 win at 2.82 = £12.49 profit if win.  Looks to be the best bet of the day.  Has to beat Tinnahalla and Warrent as main rivals but looks too good for them on paper at least

2.30 Catt Looked at this handicap by accident.  However only 6 runners but at least 4 of them could win it.  I would love to know how experts get a value price in handicaps when the horses are meant to cross the line together.  I used to think that 7/2 would be a value price but there are so many handicap races these days with very short price favourites that I am totally confused as to a good minimum price to take

3.00 Catt Barrichello looks to be the very best on paper.  It has to be a concern that Ripperroo is odds on to win this event.  Therefore taking 11/8 about my selection seems to indicate a risk for profit that is not worthwhile

1.50 Chep Grumpy Charley is odds on here.  Real Stone has a chance of reversing placings with this one one on better weight terms and I don't think that Brewers Project is out of it either.  Cant back the favourite and dutching Real Stone and Brewers Project for a total stake of around £9.50 looks too risky with Grumpy Charley a possible winner so I will pass on the race

2.50 Chep Young Buck is 4/6 so I'll leave it to the experts who can make money on 60% shots of winning

4.50 Chep Leboswki is at a best price of 13/8 to win this race.  I reckon that it has at least 3 other live contenders so taking a 40% price about a horse that has a 25% chance of winning isn't my idea of value.

May have a look at the All Weather tracks later if I can find the time

Good luck everyone today

 

 

 

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, Zilzalian said:

I will add-by my book should be odds on (4/6?)

And that my friends is why I don't like backing favs.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

All prices Bet365:
 

12.40 Lingfield - 1pt e/w Warnes Army @ 14/1

1.00 Catterick - 1pt e/w El Jefe @ 25/1

1.30 Catterick - 1pt e/w Silver In Disguise @ 8/1

2.10 Lingfield - 1pt e/w One Day @ 16/1

2.20 Chepstow - 2pts win Big Nasty @ 6/1 (is just a huge, fairly slow plodder but this c&d will suit on heavy ground so pretty sweet on this one)

3.30 Catterick - 1pt e/w Acdc @ 12/1

3.50 Chepstow - 1pt e/w Sirop De Menthe @ 20/1

4.05 Catterick - 1pt e/w Gold Runner @ 11/1

[ipswich45]

Newcastle - all prices Bet365
1615   1 Union Spirit     5/1      8th
1645   3 Imperial Command   5/2    WON
1715   10 Dramatista     5/1   5th
1745   3 Pop Favourite    9/2   4th
1815   2 Chookie Dunedin   13/2  6th
1845   5 Seeking Perfection   3/1 WON 9/2
1915   1 Be Proud      9/4  4th

Edited February 5, 2021 by ipswich45
results being added

[roger2256]

Feb +6.5

1pt level stakes win only 

14.30 Cat Lucca Lady 33/1 Lost

15.50 Che Bean in Trouble 8/1 Lost

18.00 Dun Lilandra 7/2  Lost

Prices as of now b365 

-3

Feb +3.5

Edited February 6, 2021 by roger2256
Result

[Tedthewolf]

3.50 Chepstow- I always have a look at Pipe trained runners at this track he has one out today and i give  it a real good e/w chance down to a C4 on a very handy mark and a 5lb claimer on top EAMON AN CONIC 14/1 4 places bog or 12/1  5places not bog. Horse not in form Trainer not in form but happy to take a chance at what i think is very fair odds.

 

[The Equaliser]

2 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

1.00 Catt Homme Public £7 win at 2.82 = £12.49 profit if win.  Looks to be the best bet of the day.  Has to beat Tinnahalla and Warrent as main rivals but looks too good for them on paper at least

2.30 Catt Looked at this handicap by accident.  However only 6 runners but at least 4 of them could win it.  I would love to know how experts get a value price in handicaps when the horses are meant to cross the line together.  I used to think that 7/2 would be a value price but there are so many handicap races these days with very short price favourites that I am totally confused as to a good minimum price to take

3.00 Catt Barrichello looks to be the very best on paper.  It has to be a concern that Ripperroo is odds on to win this event.  Therefore taking 11/8 about my selection seems to indicate a risk for profit that is not worthwhile

1.50 Chep Grumpy Charley is odds on here.  Real Stone has a chance of reversing placings with this one one on better weight terms and I don't think that Brewers Project is out of it either.  Cant back the favourite and dutching Real Stone and Brewers Project for a total stake of around £9.50 looks too risky with Grumpy Charley a possible winner so I will pass on the race

2.50 Chep Young Buck is 4/6 so I'll leave it to the experts who can make money on 60% shots of winning

4.50 Chep Leboswki is at a best price of 13/8 to win this race.  I reckon that it has at least 3 other live contenders so taking a 40% price about a horse that has a 25% chance of winning isn't my idea of value.

May have a look at the All Weather tracks later if I can find the time

Good luck everyone today

 

 

 

Possibly a mistake at 2 out cost Homme Public the race.  Very annoying.

3.10 Lin Insightful £2 win at 10.0 = £17.64 profit if it wins.  Greystoke is favourite at around 2/1.  This could run very well with Tom Marquand on board.  I'm taking a bit of a flyer  on Insightful with Hollie Doyle aboard for a first time out win.  However, I would rather risk £2 than £6 with the possibility of a greater profit

5.45 Nc Gioia Cieca is 5/4 favourite for a promising 6th in its previous race.  Has at least 3 other live contenders to beat so I'll let it win at that price

6.45 Nc Looks like a very interesting race.  Kratos looks to be the best but I can't help wondering why it hasn't been out sooner than when it last raced and won.  Not as if class 5 novice stakes are hard to find on the all weather over the winter is it?  As If By Chance is dropping back to 6f presumably in the hope that it will last home better than at 7 furlongs.  I am trying to get £3 on at 5.1 = £12.05 profit if matched and wins.  Currently 4.3 but I will hold out and try to save myself a £1 on stake money.  I'm hoping that the first two in the betting will help to push out my selection in price.  This horse seems to hold just as good a chance as the front two imo.

Possible total stakes now at £12

 

 

 

 

[MCLARKE]

A tough day so far for my AW high draw selections with both 2nd, including Lord Halifax, such is racing, sigh.

One in the 7.15 at Newcastle, BUNIANN at 3/1.

[Wildgarden]

615 newcastle Daniels flyer Ew 6-1 most

[Wildgarden]

43 minutes ago, Wildgarden said:

615 newcastle Daniels flyer Ew 6-1 most

Nowhere

[The Equaliser]

6 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

A tough day so far for my AW high draw selections with both 2nd, including Lord Halifax, such is racing, sigh.

One in the 7.15 at Newcastle, BUNIANN at 3/1.

Unlucky Michael, looks like you need top add in "nose" measurements for your AW qualifiers ?

Edited February 5, 2021 by The Equaliser

[The Equaliser]

8 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Possibly a mistake at 2 out cost Homme Public the race.  Very annoying.

3.10 Lin Insightful £2 win at 10.0 = £17.64 profit if it wins.  Greystoke is favourite at around 2/1.  This could run very well with Tom Marquand on board.  I'm taking a bit of a flyer  on Insightful with Hollie Doyle aboard for a first time out win.  However, I would rather risk £2 than £6 with the possibility of a greater profit

5.45 Nc Gioia Cieca is 5/4 favourite for a promising 6th in its previous race.  Has at least 3 other live contenders to beat so I'll let it win at that price

6.45 Nc Looks like a very interesting race.  Kratos looks to be the best but I can't help wondering why it hasn't been out sooner than when it last raced and won.  Not as if class 5 novice stakes are hard to find on the all weather over the winter is it?  As If By Chance is dropping back to 6f presumably in the hope that it will last home better than at 7 furlongs.  I am trying to get £3 on at 5.1 = £12.05 profit if matched and wins.  Currently 4.3 but I will hold out and try to save myself a £1 on stake money.  I'm hoping that the first two in the betting will help to push out my selection in price.  This horse seems to hold just as good a chance as the front two imo.

Possible total stakes now at £12

 

 

 

 

RESULTS UPDATE

My main bet lost today which was a pity but at least I was right about Kratos despite it being backed into 8/15 favourite!!  I wasn't clear above about my selections but I backed Seeking Perfection for a profit of £12.05.  This means that my balance is now £551.40 (£500 Bank)

A couple of interesting graded races at Sandown tomorrow along with a few good races at Wetherby, assuming the meeting goes ahead.