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Racing Chat - Saturday 7th November


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It is the final day of the Melbourne Cup carnival at Flemington with 2 G1's on the card as well as UK and Irish interest. I have 5 bets there and a couple in Sydney at Rosehill.

Flemington R4 (3.15am)

I like Right You Are in this contest who looks a progressive horse. He is 1st up, but he is 2/2 over 1600m and has won 4 of his 7 starts. Indeed he has never finished outside of the first 3. I really like his 2nd to Persan two starts back and that horse finished 5th in the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday. This looks a good starting point for him.

Right You Are @ 9/4 with Bet365

Flemington R5 (3.55am)

The Queen Elizabeth Stakes sees plenty of horses who didn't make the cut for the Melbourne Cup run over 2600m. I think it can go the same way as the Cup as well as Joseph O'Brien's Pondus looks to have an excellent chance. He ran a huge race in the Bendigo Cup having been drawn in 15 and passing the 400m marker he still only had 3 behind him. To finish a short head 2nd to the winner was a huge effort and he can go one better. I am also going to have a small e/w bet on Chapada who I think is the leading home contender. He won the Herbert Power 2 starts back and I thought he ran well in the Caulfield Cup where the jockey admitted he went too soon on him. 

Pondus @ 11/8 with William Hill

Chapada e/w @ 10/1 with Betfred

Flemington R6 (4.35am)

If Nature Strip wins this I am going to be fuming, but I just can't tip him up again on the back of the Everest run. He does have a good record at Flemington and maybe he wasn't quite over his issue ahead of the run in the Everest, but it was a disappointing effort. Instead I am going with Bivouac who was 2nd in the Everest and the form has worked out really well as you would expect. He won the Newmarket over course and distance earlier in the year and he looks the one to beat.

Bivouac @ 23/10 with Bet365

Flemington R7 (5.15am)

Competitive G2 for the mares and I am going to go with Toffee Tongue. She has only won once, but that came in the G1 Schweppes Oaks at Morphettville in May. She was keen in the Caulfield Cup last time, but the time before she was only beaten a short head to Verry Eleegant in the Turnbull and she should be involved in the finish here.

Toffee Tongue @ 13/2 with Betfair

Flemington R8 (6am)

The 2nd G1 on the card is the Mackinnon Stakes and as much as I like Mugatoo's claims I am going to side with Arcadia Queen who was one place behind him in the Cox Plate last time. Neither had a great run during the race, but Arcadia Queen nearly fell 1000m from home and without that I think she would have finished in front of Mugatoo. Prior to that she had returned to form when beating Russian Camelot to win the Caulfield Stakes. Melody Belle was 2nd in this last year, but had been out of form prior to going back to New Zealand. She won two G1's last month though so seems to have found her form again and will be a danger.

Arcadia Queen @ 2/1 with Bet365

Rosehill R5 (4.15am)

This looks a good race for Stockman who has finished 1st or 2nd on 7 of his 10 starts. He thrives on a heavy track which he looks certain to get and was a fast finishing 2nd over 1400m here last week. The 7 day back up shouldn't be a concern as he won off a 9 day back up in May and the step up in trip will suit.

Stockman @ 15/8 with William Hill

Rosehill R8 (6.20am)

I put Greek Hero up last week but he was scratched on the morning of the race. As I mentioned last week he raced on the wrong side of the track on his last start in June and the form is strong as well. The slight concern is the trip, but I still think he is capable of going close and is one to follow going forward.

Greek Hero @ 15/2 with Bet365 (Has been scratched again)

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Time to get some xmas spending money.   

315 donc november hcap 

Rhythmic intent 313

Tulip fields  310 

Massively wide open 23 runner hcap ....but these 2 are a fair few points ahead and huge prices....will need some extreme luck but could the xmas bonus be coming ??

Rhythmic intent 10pt ew 22/1 7places sky

Tulip fields 10pt ew 12/1 7 places sky

 

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335 winc badger silver trophy

Just a sting 288

Cobra de mai 285

Sizing at midnight 285

These 3 are a few points ahead of next horse and decent prices so I'll play all 3 ...and doubles with above race 

Just a sting 10pt win 8/1 betv

Cobra de mai 10pt win 16/1 betv

Sizing at midnight 10pt win 16/1 betv

6x 2pt doubles with above race 

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1255 donc 

Tomfre   312 

Kynren   310

These 2 are a bit clear .....kynren has been quiet for a while but conditions suit today and he usually picks up a race like this .....

Tomfre won a,shade cosily last time so could be more left in tank 

Tomfre 10pt win 5/1 sky 

Kynren 10pt win 9/1 b365 

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All prices Bet365:

12.40 Wincanton - 2pts win Keep Moving @ 13/2

Won this race well last year off just 2lbs lower and has had excuses since. Ran okay when shaping as if needing the run at Exeter last time but ought to be a different proposition this afternoon and there's market support suggesting he can land this for the second year running. 

12.55 Doncaster - 1pt e/w Firmament @ 25/1

Backed this one last time over c&d and he went well for a long way on heavy ground and the slightly better conditions today will suit. Enjoys this track and with a slightly more conservative ride looks capable of getting involved here at a big price.

1.00 Aintree - 1pt e/w General Custard @ 10/1

Jumped a bit novicey on chasing debut after a long absence at Wetherby last time but could be a different proposition now with that under his belt. Needs to avoid the dreaded bounce but hopefully he can be ridden handier today as he gets the trip well. Mark looks appealing on novice hurdling form and if attacking his fences today, should hold sound claims.

1.30 Doncaster - 1pt e/w Ostilio @ 13/2

Dakota Gold will find this harder to dominate and I think the all round pace of Ostilio can see him prevail this afternoon. Plenty of form over 7f and a mile but has the speed to lie up with these and I can see him outstaying them late on so long as holding an early pitch. Good chance at the weights and ought to give a good account of himself.

1.35 Aintree - 2pts win Golan Fortune @ 11/2

Market support is there after this one ran a very promising race over a trip shorter than ideal on his reappearance at Cheltenham a couple of weeks back. Has ideal conditions here, is on a winnable mark and ought to go very well indeed.

1.50 Wincanton - 1pt e/w The White Mouse @ 12/1

Very interesting runner for Lucy Wadham as it looks well handicapped on novice form - winning a dual with Oscar Rose which reads well and was in the process of running a big race when clipping heels and coming down in a hot handicap when last seen. That was a while ago now but won its hurdling debut after a break and early market signals are quite promising. 

2.05 Doncaster - 1pt e/w Born With Pride @ 12/1

Still lightly raced and has a big chance on any of her form over this sort of trip. Hasn't finished off her races over further and it may just be that she doesn't stay and these conditions look spot on for her. Won on debut on heavy, ran okay despite having things go wrong in the hot Berlin Tango race at Kempton and ran a solid race over 1m4f behind Wonderful Tonight in France a couple of starts back. 1m2f on soft looks ideal and has a solid chance on ratings if bouncing back.

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12 hours ago, Tedthewolf said:

Two Irish horses running in Britain tomorrow  

1.30 Donny- SON OF REST 11/1 bet365 e/w bog 1/5 3 places

1.35 Aintree- EIGHT AND BOB 7/1 e/w 4 places 1/5 not bog

November Handicap 

INDIANAPOLIS 22/1 e/w not bog 7 places 1//5

Son Of Rest my pick in today's NAP , will love the ground 3 wins all on soft & 4 placed efforts from 19 starts , let's hope Marmite Man Spencer is on a good day .

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23 minutes ago, calva decoy said:

Son Of Rest my pick in today's NAP , will love the ground 3 wins all on soft & 4 placed efforts from 19 starts , let's hope Marmite Man Spencer is on a good day .

Yeah for me spence on top is a big worry don't like his riding at all i really like  Molis Memory in the race before this one but  a measley 11/2 with  him on top just can't bring myself to back it so went e/w on Edbury instead.

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 4 races worth rating @ Donny
image.png.2716fd699e81b6dc8408ac3324a1be59.png

12.55
Revich 7pts ew @ 17
Punchbowl Flyer 9.95pts ew @ 12
1.30
No bets
2.05
Chamade 12pts ew @ 10
Moll Davis 9.95pts ew @ 12
3.15
Torcello 7pts ew @ 17
Strawberry Rock 4.10pts @ 29
100pts staked @ Skybet no BOG
1 winner profit
3 placed money back ish (depending which 3 place )

Edited by Valiant Thor
Formatting
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1-35 AINTREE PORTRUSH TED

Portrush Ted has relatively few miles in the clock but in all of his completed starts he has finished inside the first two places. He has won on his seasonal debut for the last three seasons, so Warren Greatrex clearly has no problems getting him fit and ready to race. He has prior experience of winning at this track having landed a Grade 2 bumper where some decent types were well and truly beaten including Amoola Gold, Mister Fisher, Al Dancer and Harambe. Adrian Heskin once again takes the reins and he knows this nine-year-old inside out. Likely to be prominent from the outset and racing in the familiar colours of the McNeill Family, Portrush Ted is likely to make his presence felt.

1-50 WINCANTON CILL ANNA

Paul Nicholls has won this twice with decent mares in recent years including If You Say Run and Violin Davis. Cill Anna was a little slow to come to hand last season but she eventually found the winning habit when winning a mare’s novice hurdle at Warwick last December. She followed that up with a seven length defeat of Miss Honey Ryder over this course and distance before she was raised in grade to contest a listed race at Doncaster back in February. Harry Cobden was on her that day and despite coming under a ride 2 from home, the pair kept on in game fashion to see off the attentions of Ziggy Rose and Aimee De Sivola. With the promise of further improvement to come, this exciting five year old has stamina in abundance and her rivals will know they have had a race today.

3-35

WINCANTON DANNY WHIZZBANG Danny Whizzbang has won on his seasonal reappearance for the last two years since joining Paul Nicholls and this solid three-mile chaser will bid to get off to a wining start here. Genuine good to soft ground seems to suit him perfectly well and following another bout of wind surgery, there should be every reason to expect further improvement today. Paul Nicholls has won this race for the last three years but it is notable that he landed it with an up and coming sort in Give Me A Copper last year. Stablemate Present Man has to lumber top-weight yet again and pulled up in this race last year so that is off putting. This lightly raced seven-year-old is open to further progression and under a very much in-form Harry Coben, the duo look the ones to beat.

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17 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

1255 donc 

Tomfre   312 

Kynren   310

These 2 are a bit clear .....kynren has been quiet for a while but conditions suit today and he usually picks up a race like this .....

Tomfre won a,shade cosily last time so could be more left in tank 

Tomfre 10pt win 5/1 sky 

Kynren 10pt win 9/1 b365 

Tomfre wins but have to admit if firmament had stayed straight on the far side he would have won easily .....but he didn't lol 

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2 hours ago, Bathtime For Rupert said:

All prices Bet365:

12.55 Doncaster - 1pt e/w Firmament @ 25/1

Backed this one last time over c&d and he went well for a long way on heavy ground and the slightly better conditions today will suit. Enjoys this track and with a slightly more conservative ride looks capable of getting involved here at a big price.

 

 

Sooo unlucky there BTFR not to get the win ran a cracker great e/w price you got.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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One Trixie today

1.30 Don Brando  (KS) £2 win at 4/1
2.05 Don Freyja (BC) 9/2
3.15 Don Sam Cooke 11/2

One £1 win Trixie = £4 v poss return of £274.50

One really great thing about using ratings is that one cuts the number of selections to look at down to truly manageable proportions.

However, when I see William Buick defy the ratings as he did by winning on Sir Benedict at 6/1 by a nose and a nose I do sigh a little.  Pity he won't win the title, his strike rate is far better than Oisin Murphy.  He is definitely the man to follow next year 🙂 

£4 on multiples & £2 on singles

Back later hopefully

Brando blew the start what a bummer

2.05 Don Freyja £2 win at 9/2

3.15 Don Sam Cooke £1 win at 11/2
3.15 Don Surrey Pride £1 win at 10/1
3.15 Don Dash Of spice £1 win at 12/1

3.45 Don With Respect £1 win at 7/1
3.45 Don Lord Oberon £1 win at 12/1
3.45 Don Praxeology £1 win at 18/1

3.35 Win Present Man £1 win at 8/1
3.35 Win Potterman £1 win at 11/1

= £4 multiples

= £12 on singles

= Total £16

May come back later with some more later, getting the taste for it again

=================================================================================================

Well I guess that it was no surprise to have a blank day with so many and such competition.  Maybe if I was in America I could claim that they all won in reality and that I should sue the bookies 🤣

Potterman was only beaten by a short head and traded at 1.02 in running so that was a bit unlucky.

Multiples loss = £4.  Balance c/fwd is now £617.69 (£800 Bank)

Singles loss = £12 Balance c/fwd is now £146.24 (Bank £400)

Three jumps meetings in the UK later so that may be interesting 

 

 

Edited by The Equaliser
Results Update
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23 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Time to get some xmas spending money.   

315 donc november hcap 

Rhythmic intent 313

Tulip fields  310 

Massively wide open 23 runner hcap ....but these 2 are a fair few points ahead and huge prices....will need some extreme luck but could the xmas bonus be coming ??

Rhythmic intent 10pt ew 22/1 7places sky

Tulip fields 10pt ew 12/1 7 places sky

 

Omg  rhythmic  was plum last halfway through thought he had no chance and finished 2nd ...given too much to do ....fantastic run ew money ....approx 60pts returned 

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22 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

335 winc badger silver trophy

Just a sting 288

Cobra de mai 285

Sizing at midnight 285

These 3 are a few points ahead of next horse and decent prices so I'll play all 3 ...and doubles with above race 

Just a sting 10pt win 8/1 betv

Cobra de mai 10pt win 16/1 betv

Sizing at midnight 10pt win 16/1 betv

6x 2pt doubles with above race 

Gutted ....sizing at midnight coming with a strong challenge 3 out and fell .......he was looking strong 

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4 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:

 4 races worth rating @ Donny
image.png.2716fd699e81b6dc8408ac3324a1be59.png

12.55
Revich 7pts ew @ 17
Punchbowl Flyer 9.95pts ew @ 12
1.30
No bets
2.05
Chamade 12pts ew @ 10
Moll Davis 9.95pts ew @ 12
3.15
Torcello 7pts ew @ 17
Strawberry Rock 4.10pts @ 29
100pts staked @ Skybet no BOG
1 winner profit
3 placed money back ish (depending which 3 place )

image.png.bde1664d11d1e1c3e85aaf752e895711.png
Staked 100pts
Returned 157.36pts (11.24pts @ 10/1 as some odds had changed between posting and placing bets)  :ok
  image.png.b9ff56abcf3700c2f893c546ffb5bb7f.png

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