Racing Chat - Monday Sept 28th

[BillyHills]

Best bets 

Nap: 130 H: Quanah 4/1 Betvic

Nb: 745 Nc: Great Colaci 7/2 bet365

EW: 300 H: Donnochies Girl 11/2 bet365

 

 

[yossa6133]

3:00 Hamilton El Naseri. Becoming a cliff horse for me as I've backed it a couple of times. No show last time at Beverley when stepped up in trip and steps up in trip again tomorrow. Should be on a really good mark now off 69 on his 2 year old form. Interesting that it's already been nibbled at in the betting despite poor recent form. One more chance at 10/1!

 

slightly better effort, at least came with a run but faded in the last few hundred yards. No more chances!

Edited September 28, 2020 by yossa6133

[Villa Chris]

Double 10/1(lost)

Archaeology(Hamilton)

Senior Citizen(Newton Abbot)

Bath , 2.50

Princess Power 13/2(Lost)

Hamilton , 3.30

Princes Des Sables, 11/2(lost)
 

Newton Abbot 3.40(placed)

All Yours e/w 8/1

 

Edited September 28, 2020 by Villa Chris

[roger2256]

Dilemma on which one to nap but decided on 

14.30 Ham Ayr Poet 9/4 b365

( won well at the same venue last week )

Others considered. 

17.50 Bath 

Tattenhams  9/2 pp

( napped and won well for me last week at the same meeting as above )

17.20 Bath

Precisely 9/2 b365

( already backed in from 11/2 ,upped in distance 7f to 10f and Buick booked , hmmm ) 

Buick could have a good day at bath ,          6 rides so will risk  a tenner.

 20 x 50p trebles 

[The Equaliser]

One Trixie today:

3.00 Ham Donnachies Girl £1.20 win at 7/1
3.10 NAb Winter Getaway £2 win at 4/1
5.20 Bath Precisely £2 win at 4/1

£1 win Trixie = £4 = poss return of £278.50

Other bet

5.20 Bath Biotic 70p win at 12/1

Following top Jockeys and apprentices now. Easier to find, let's hope not easier to lose money.  Lots of other selections but no time to list here

Multiples = £4

Singles = £5.90

Total = £9.90

=============================================================================================================

Only one winner so my Trixie failed = -£4.00 = a balance c/fwd of £662.69 (£800 Bank)

My singles winner paid £9.20 after a rule 4 deduction of 10p in the pound.  This showed a profit of £3.30 and my balance c/fwd is now £228.77 (£400 Bank)

I am fairly certain that my latest approach of focussing on top in form jockeys and apprentices is going to pay off.  Apart from backing Will Buick's Precisely I also backed Hollie Doyles Devils Roc and Georgia Dobie's Lady Elysia at 15/2.  I noticed that Phil Dennis had got two winners this evening so I took a punt on Star Cracker at 14/1 in the last.  I knew that Phil Dennis would be bouyed up by his two previous succeses and although that Zebulon had him well beaten previously I suspected that the 5lbs penalty may be the undoing of him.

HAPPY DAYS ARE HERE AGAIN.............. 

 

Edited September 28, 2020 by The Equaliser
Results update

[Bathtime For Rupert]

1.00 Hamilton - 1pt win Clieves Hills @ 12/1 Bet365

Market suggesting maybe not one for today but James Bethell's horses are running well and this one comes from a talented family. Virtually all of her half siblings have been nice types and the vast majority won either first or second time out. Will need further in time but 50% of Bethell's 2 year olds have been in the first three when running at Hamilton and could go well on debut.

1.30 Hamilton - 1pt win Ventura Flame @ 8/1 Bet365

They set it up for Economic Crisis last time out and I think with a slightly more conservative pace up front, Ventura Flame can go very well today. Continues to slide down to an attractive mark and improved for a more positive ride last time. Best form has come from a prominent sit and if getting a handy position from a good break, should go well off a now lowly mark.

2.10 Newton Abbot - 1pt e/w Dan Gun @ 18/1 PP

This is a poor race and whilst Dan Gun has been well held so far this season, there have been excuses. Presumably needed the run first time up, had next to no chance at the weights in a claiming hurdle next time out and led for a long way last time. Has stopped quickly which is a concern but this drop in trip can help and in a weak race, has at least proven himself previously under similar conditions. 

2.20 Bath - 1pt e/w Leto The First @ 14/1 Bet365

Rod Millman's charge is well drawn to attack here from stall 2 and this one has plenty of pace. Will relish the drop back to the minimum trip from 6f having shown an element of promise despite racing freely over that trip. Hollie Doyle on board and should be able to finish his race off better now down to a sharp 5f and didn't have much of a chance at the weights in a seller last time. Blinkers on too today. 

3.00 Hamilton - 1pt e/w Donnachies Girl @ 7/1 Bet365

Well drawn to attack here and I'm hoping she makes this more of a test than last time when going a steady pace in front and was just outpaced by the front two in the end. Stays this trip well so I'd be keen to see this made more of a test as I think they'll struggle to get past her if so. Is a course and distance winner and looks sure to go well so appeals at an each wide price.

3.40 Newton Abbot - 1pt e/w Can You Believe It @ 8/1 Bet365

Benefited from wind surgery in recent runs and his 2nd two starts back reads well being a progressive type. Couldn't quite back it up last time up to 3 miles but has been given a break since and the drop in trip looks a good move. Stays this distance well and still looks plausibly handicapped on recent form now freshened up again. 

[Villa Chris]

20 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Double 10/1(lost)

Archaeology(Hamilton)

Senior Citizen(Newton Abbot)

Bath , 2.50

Princess Power 13/2(Lost)

Hamilton , 3.30

Princes Des Sables, 11/2(lost)
 

Newton Abbot 3.40(placed)

All Yours e/w 8/1

 

35 points out, 15 points returned. -20 points loss on the day .

[Bathtime For Rupert]

4 hours ago, Bathtime For Rupert said:

1.00 Hamilton - 1pt win Clieves Hills @ 12/1 Bet365

Market suggesting maybe not one for today but James Bethell's horses are running well and this one comes from a talented family. Virtually all of her half siblings have been nice types and the vast majority won either first or second time out. Will need further in time but 50% of Bethell's 2 year olds have been in the first three when running at Hamilton and could go well on debut.

1.30 Hamilton - 1pt win Ventura Flame @ 8/1 Bet365

They set it up for Economic Crisis last time out and I think with a slightly more conservative pace up front, Ventura Flame can go very well today. Continues to slide down to an attractive mark and improved for a more positive ride last time. Best form has come from a prominent sit and if getting a handy position from a good break, should go well off a now lowly mark.

2.10 Newton Abbot - 1pt e/w Dan Gun @ 18/1 PP

This is a poor race and whilst Dan Gun has been well held so far this season, there have been excuses. Presumably needed the run first time up, had next to no chance at the weights in a claiming hurdle next time out and led for a long way last time. Has stopped quickly which is a concern but this drop in trip can help and in a weak race, has at least proven himself previously under similar conditions. 

2.20 Bath - 1pt e/w Leto The First @ 14/1 Bet365

Rod Millman's charge is well drawn to attack here from stall 2 and this one has plenty of pace. Will relish the drop back to the minimum trip from 6f having shown an element of promise despite racing freely over that trip. Hollie Doyle on board and should be able to finish his race off better now down to a sharp 5f and didn't have much of a chance at the weights in a seller last time. Blinkers on too today. 

3.00 Hamilton - 1pt e/w Donnachies Girl @ 7/1 Bet365

Well drawn to attack here and I'm hoping she makes this more of a test than last time when going a steady pace in front and was just outpaced by the front two in the end. Stays this trip well so I'd be keen to see this made more of a test as I think they'll struggle to get past her if so. Is a course and distance winner and looks sure to go well so appeals at an each wide price.

3.40 Newton Abbot - 1pt e/w Can You Believe It @ 8/1 Bet365

Benefited from wind surgery in recent runs and his 2nd two starts back reads well being a progressive type. Couldn't quite back it up last time up to 3 miles but has been given a break since and the drop in trip looks a good move. Stays this distance well and still looks plausibly handicapped on recent form now freshened up again. 

Small profit with Ventura Flame winning at 9s and Donnachies Girl 2nd.

Little play at Newcastle this evening:

6.15 Newcastle - 1pt e/w Million Reasons @ 17/2 Bet365 (Shaped pretty well at Kempton when the mile trip looked a bit far and also on pedigree. Should come on for that run and enjoy the drop in trip)

6.45 Newcastle - 3pts win Arnold @ 11/4 Bet365 (Drifted out to a very backable price - looks primed to win with some luck in the run back down to 5f)

7.15 Newcastle - 1pt win Najib @ 6/1 Bet365 (Should find this easier to lead all the way than at Hamilton recently. Off a decent mark with conditions to suit)

7.45 Newcastle - 1pt win Ishebayorgrey @ 6/1 Bet365 (Break seemed to do it good when running well over 6f here last time. Back up to 7f will suit and off a fair mark).

[roger2256]

17 hours ago, roger2256 said:

Dilemma on which one to nap but decided on 

14.30 Ham Ayr Poet 9/4 b365

( won well at the same venue last week )

Others considered. 

17.50 Bath 

Tattenhams  9/2 pp

( napped and won well for me last week at the same meeting as above )

17.20 Bath

Precisely 9/2 b365

( already backed in from 11/2 ,upped in distance 7f to 10f and Buick booked , hmmm ) 

Buick could have a good day at bath ,          6 rides so will risk  a tenner.

 20 x 50p trebles 

3 winners for Buick and an excellent return

[roger2256]

Thanks for all the likes  guys , its appreciated. 

Edited September 28, 2020 by roger2256
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