Racing Chat - Thursday Aug 20th

[BillyHills]

Decent racing on Thursday

A look at the handicaps at York and Chester

245 York

 

1pt EW Another Touch 50/1 bet365
1pt EW Doccumenting 20/1 Betfair
 

455 Chester

1pt EW Gabrial The Wire 10/1 bet365
1pt EW King Ragnar 12/1 bet365

 

630 Chester

1pt EW Brad The Breif 9/1 bet365
1pt EW Lincoln Park 12/1 bet365

 

 

 

[Striker]

Good luck

1.45 York-Bellissime

First ever run and its in a Group 2!

But I understand that she is naturally talented...so

Each Way @ 33-1 [Four places] Betfair

[calva decoy]

2 hours ago, Striker said:

Good luck

1.45 York-Bellissime

First ever run and its in a Group 2!

But I understand that she is naturally talented...so

Each Way @ 33-1 [Four places] Betfair

I've had a couple of quid at 25's to win with sky bet who are paying cash back if 2nd , 3rd , 4th or 5th dependent on amount of runners in race , good luck , Ryan & Stott had nice 2yr old winner at Beverley on Tuesday Roman Encounter , was 20's Monday night sp of 8/1 same silks as Tinochio who runs in the 2.15.

[calva decoy]

Well after last week's heatwave good ol' Windsor is abandoned with a waterlogged course........ good ol' British weather..... some things don't change ?

[BillyHills]

16 hours ago, Striker said:

Good luck

1.45 York-Bellissime

First ever run and its in a Group 2!

But I understand that she is naturally talented...so

Each Way @ 33-1 [Four places] Betfair

 

 

First time out Fillies in Group 2 races have a 10% strike rate so the price is ok at least

[Trotter]

I usually do my selecting the night before so I don't notice the ups and downs of the market leading up to the race

But something has caught my eye !

The 1.30 at Leopardstown....... a 2yo race for horses that haven't run, so obviously no form to go. Really you've only got breeding, connections and the market to go off

Last night the O'Brien runner, Song of Peace,  was put in at 6/4 favourite

He's now drifted out to 10/3 and the big market mover is Cosmic Vega, now favourite

All unraced horses, no form ...... will the market have it right ?

1.30 Leop - Cosmic Vega at 9/4 Laddies

 

 

[The Equaliser]

Once more into the breach:  Two Trixies today

1.45 Yk Sacred 2/1
2.45 Yk Top Rank 3/1
4.25 Ches Wrenthorpe 5/1
£1 win Trixie at £1 = £4 v £126.00

4.55 Ches Revitch 3/1
5.25 Ches Spanish Moon 6/4
6.00 Ches Spright 6/4
£1.50 win Trixie at £1.50 = £6 v £76.87

Other bets:

2.15 Yk Uncle Jumbo 50p ew at 7/1

2.45 Yk Top Rank £1 win at 3/1
2.45 Yk Walhaan 50p ew at 16/1

3.15 Yk Alpanista 50p ew at 40/1
3.15 Yk One Voice 50p ew at 11/1
I would Love to win this one

3.45 Yk Gold Wand 50p win at 4/1

 

 

 

 

3.45 Yk Albaflora 50p win at 9/2
3.45 Yk Award Scheme 50p ew at 6/1

4.20 Yk Basilicata 50p ew at 12/1
4.20 Yk Bonnyrigg 50p ew at 11/2

4.50 Yk Dancing Vega 50p ew at 9/2
4.50 Yk Anna Nerium 50p ew at 9/1

4.25 Ches Wrenthorpe 50p ew at 9/2
4.25 Ches Orvar 50p ew at 5/1

4.55 Ches Revitch £1 win at 3/1
4.55 Ches Gabrial The Wire 50p ew at 6/1

Total multiples = £10

Total Singles = £15

Total bets = £25

This is my idea of having a fun packed day watching the racing.

Good luck to all

=============================================================================================

SUCCESS ?

Not before time is it that I finally get a full Trixie since lock down.  One thing that this has taught me is to avoid Trixies at the big festivals even if the favourites look nailed on to win.  It is simple logic really.  All the trainers entering horses for the big races are trying to strain every sinew of their horses so as to try and get black type and good prize money for their horses.  I think from now on I will even drop down to class four events at the smaller meetings if necessary so as to avoid all the stiff competition against my selections.

Anyway, the Trixie at Chester paid £76.88 and after deducting total multiple stakes of £10 the net profit on the day was £66.88.  The balance now C/Fwd is £752.56 (£800 Bank)

It was also a fun packed day for my singles bets. They only managed a £3.14 profit but I watched loads of entertaining racing.  The balance C/Fwd is £324.77 (£400 Bank).

More good quality racing tomorrow at York but no Trixies for me despite the likes of Battaash running 

 

 

 

 

Edited August 20, 2020 by The Equaliser
Results Update

[The Equaliser]

7 minutes ago, Trotter said:

I usually do my selecting the night before so I don't notice the ups and downs of the market leading up to the race

But something has caught my eye !

The 1.30 at Leopardstown....... a 2yo race for horses that haven't run, so obviously no form to go. Really you've only got breeding, connections and the market to go off

Last night the O'Brien runner, Song of Peace,  was put in at 6/4 favourite

He's now drifted out to 10/3 and the big market mover is Cosmic Vega, now favourite

All unraced horses, no form ...... will the market have it right ?

1.30 Leop - Cosmic Vega at 9/4 Laddies

 

 

I think I would stick with Song Of Peace at the higher price.  Razdan looks interesting.  Good luck anyway

[Bathtime For Rupert]

1.45 York - 1pt e/w Santosha @ 7/1 Bet365

Favourite looks short to me here - Queen Mary form doesn't look anything special and by Exceed And Excel, any cut remaining in the ground a potential negative too so will take her on. I'm surprised at Santosha's price considering she has arguably the best form in the book, can lie up handy if using the same tactics as last time and handles any give in the ground that may still be there. Can't really knock her form so if continuing in the same vein should be placed at the very least.

2.15 York - 3pts win Devious Company @ 7/4 Hills

Just struggling to get this one beat to be honest - all of his form has worked out well, he's clearly ahead of these on figures and should have the class to hold them at bay. Does drop back down to 6f so plausible he could get outspeeded by one but he's a prominent racer over 7f so hard to see him being unable to go with them any excess stamina can come into play at the death. 

2.45 York - 1pt e/w Mutamaasik @ 16/1 Bet365

Top Rank looks progressive but I'm always happy to take on a horse significantly up the weights going up in class, especially at the prices. I just wonder if some of those who've run well in top handicaps so far this year have reached the ceiling of their handicap marks so I'm going to look at the bigger prices here. I think Mutamaasik is interesting today having run a blinder at Royal Ascot, finishing first in his group and wasn't disgraced back there last time out. I wonder if he'll prove better over a mile - certainly bred to enjoy it on pedigree - and I also think the slightly easier ground today will help him as he's proved vulnerable to speedier individuals over 7f on quick ground. Flat tracks clearly suit, has blinkers on for the first time today and hasn't been hammered in the weights like some of those at the head of affairs so will go with him at an each way price.

3.45 York - 2pts win Albaflora @ 9/2 Bet365

Stayed on well to see off a couple of good rivals on debut over 1m2f - now rated in the 80s and 90s - and backed that up with a good effort here over the same trip behind Rose of Kildare last time out, getting outpaced before staying on again for second late in the day. There's plenty of stamina in the pedigree and she runs like 1m4f will be her ideal trip so has plenty going for her here. Rose of Kildare ran a good race at a big price behind Ghaiyyath yesterday, beaten less than 8 lengths, and Albaflora comes here with a big chance in my eyes.

4.20 York - 1pt e/w Star of Orion @ 9/1 Bet365

A bit disconcertingly weak in the market but on form I think Star of Orion has a huge chance here. Did everything wrong at 18/1 on debut but still managed to win, beating a decent horse into second. Gave 6lbs to a decent field on second start and separated two useful horses that day when finishing second - only narrowly beaten by a horse who is now rated in the 100s (giving it 6lbs) and was comfortably ahead of a horse now rated 84. Runs off 92 today and looks to have plenty in its favour so despite the lack of market support, will stick by it.

4.50 York - 1pt e/w Anna Nerium @ 9/1 Bet365

Typically runs in group races and has done so with credit for a long while now without getting her head in front all that often. Ran a good race at Goodwood behind One Master two starts back and chased home the favourite in a 4 runner race at Salisbury last time. A mark of 102 is definitely not beyond her when things fall for her and she'll enjoy the easier ground today than the rattling fast conditions she's raced on the last twice. Has just edged down the weights slightly and now in easier company with conditions to suit, I can see a big run.

[Trotter]

2 hours ago, Trotter said:

I usually do my selecting the night before so I don't notice the ups and downs of the market leading up to the race

But something has caught my eye !

The 1.30 at Leopardstown....... a 2yo race for horses that haven't run, so obviously no form to go. Really you've only got breeding, connections and the market to go off

Last night the O'Brien runner, Song of Peace,  was put in at 6/4 favourite

He's now drifted out to 10/3 and the big market mover is Cosmic Vega, now favourite

All unraced horses, no form ...... will the market have it right ?

1.30 Leop - Cosmic Vega at 9/4 Laddies

 

 

Yeah ..... continued to shorten down to 7/4 and won by a couple of lengths

[Tedthewolf]

2.45 york Walhaan 16/1 Whats the story 30/1 e/w 5places 1/5 on both 

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, Trotter said:

Yeah ..... continued to shorten down to 7/4 and won by a couple of lengths

Very well done

 

[Striker]

22 hours ago, Striker said:

Good luck

1.45 York-Bellissime

First ever run and its in a Group 2!

But I understand that she is naturally talented...so

Each Way @ 33-1 [Four places] Betfair

Ran very well to finish 6th as walked out of the stalls, which you can not afford to do in this class. Quite confident horse would have placed if breaking on terms

She needs further but is a horse to put in your tracker

[Trotter]

11 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

I think I would stick with Song Of Peace at the higher price.  Razdan looks interesting.  Good luck anyway

Razdan ran well ..... travelled strongly and just ran out of it in the last half furlong. Beat the O'Brien horse comfortably

looks a sure fire future winner though his odds next time might be short

[MCLARKE]

On 8/19/2020 at 8:53 PM, calva decoy said:

I've had a couple of quid at 25's to win with sky bet who are paying cash back if 2nd , 3rd , 4th or 5th dependent on amount of runners in race , good luck , Ryan & Stott had nice 2yr old winner at Beverley on Tuesday Roman Encounter , was 20's Monday night sp of 8/1 same silks as Tinochio who runs in the 2.15.

For these types of offers you are better sticking with the favourite, especially if the odds are relatively low.