Racing Chat - Saturday 2nd May

[Darran]

Thursday should have been all about studying the form and writing the preview for Cheltenham's Hunter Chase night, one of my favourite days of the year. Instead I spent it looking at Morphettville, Sandown and Randwick! Hopefully that work can still be profitable and it is certainly jump racing weather in Australia at the moment and we are looking at heavy ground at Morphettville and Sandown. It has been a bit better in Syndey though and I reckon by race time it will be either a Soft 5 or Good 4 at Randwick. I will start in Adelaide where the Autumn Carnival there steps up another notch with two G1 races on the card. I have 3 bets at Morphettville, 4 bets at Sandown and 4 bets at Randwick (they are racing on the Kensington track and Bet365 have it as Kensington).

Morphettville R6 (6.16am)

Garner is the main pick in the G2 Euclase Stakes. He was really impressive when taking a Listed Race here a couple of weeks ago over 1100m. He was ridden off the speed that day and finished with great effect. The time before when 2nd at the start of April he had to make an early move and he was caught late on. He handles a soft track well so hopefully he will handle a heavy track which is an unknown. He had Xilong back in 4th that day and although it was her 1st run in 7 weeks it is hard to see her reversing form. She did beat him by 5L over course and distance 2nd up last prep, but at these weights I think Garner can make the score 2-1 here.

I will be having a small e/w saver on Broadwayandfourth who runs here in a G2 instead of going to Sandown for a handicap. She didn't run too badly the G1 Coolmore at the Melbourne Cup Carnival in November and has run well in both starts this prep, the first of which came on heavy ground. Last time she came home in the 2nd fastest last 200m of the day at Caulfield and this step up to 1200m is ideal. She looks over priced at double figures.

Garner @ 15/8 with William Hill, Betfred and Betway

Broadwayandfourth e/w @ 11/1 with BetVictor

Morphettville R7 (6.56am)

The 1st of the G1 is the Schweppes Oaks and I think Chris Waller holds in the key here. I put up Betcha Flying last week when she won at Flemington and I was tempted again, but I am going to back the other two Waller trained runners in Toffee Tongue and Nudge. Toffee Tongue has finished 2nd on her last 4 starts now and is actually still a maiden, but it is clear she is a very good horse. She has bumped into Colette the last twice, first of all in a G3 over 2000m at Randwick and then the week after in the ATC Oaks over 2400m. Both were on heavy ground so that isn't a concern and I am not worried about her dropping back to 2000m either. For me that is the best form in the race and the fact we know she handles testing ground is crucial.

Nudge also ran in the ATC Oaks last time and finished 4th. She was 3rd in the G1 Vinery Stud at Rosehill over this trip the time before and that was a very good effort. The drop down to this trip will suit and she looks in very good form at the moment.

Affair To Remember is the favourite at the moment and she is looking fairly progressive. She won a BM64 at Sandown a month ago over 1600m and then was an unlucky 3rd at Caulfield last time over the same trip. It looks like she will handle the step up to 2000m, but she doesn't have the G1 form the two picks have so I am happy to take the Waller pair.

Toffee Tongue @ 11/2 with Betfair

Nudge e/w 15/2 with William Hill, Betfred and Betway (all 4 places)

Morphettville R9 (8.15am)

R8 is the feature race on the card and I was tempted by Sunlight as I think she is the best horse in the race. She doesn't have a great draw though and the heavy ground is an unknown so at the prices I will leave her. The 2yo Away Game who I put up the other week when she won only has to carry 47kg, but 2yo don't have a great record in G1 weight for age races in Australia and she has been on the go for a while now.

I do have a bet in the last race though. Jungle Edge is 9 and is having his 79th start, but I like his chances here. He has never won on a good track all 17 wins have been on soft or heavy ground. He will love ground conditions here and he was in good form in Sydney prior to coming last in the G1 Galaxy last time in March. He has very rarely missed the frame on a heavy track so he should go close here.

Jungle Edge @ 7/2 with William Hill, Betfred and Betway

Sandown R2 (3.30am)

This looks a 2 horse race between Duke Of Plumpton and Shot Of Irish and I am with the former. The heavy ground won't be an issue as he won on it in New Zealand back in October and he made a winning start to his Australian career a month ago when winning at Echucha. That was only a BM70 at a country track so he steps up into a stronger race here, but he looked really good when winning that day and there should be more to come. Shot Of Irish is very consistent and has won 6 of his 20 starts. He ran well enough last time at Caulfield which was his first run in just under 2 months. He has won 3 times in heavy ground so that won't be an issue, but for me Duke Of Plumpton looks a horse who could go continue to go through the grades.

Duke Of Plumpton @ 21/20 with Bet365

Sandown R6 (6.05am)

An interesting race this featuring horses who started their lives in the UK and it is two of them I am putting up. Starcaster looks likely to go off favourite and he was trained for a couple of seasons by Hughie Morrison before going to Jedd O'Keefe for a couple of starts a year ago. He won on his final start for him at York's Dante meeting when an impressive winner off 82. Reading O'Keefe's quotes after the race he suggests that there is every chance he will improve with age and gelding him seemed to have improved him as well. That race was on good to firm ground though and although he did win on good to soft it was only a 4 runner race at Chepstow. He has had 3 starts in Australia two last year when running well enough at Caulfield and Flemington and then this prep he was a winner at Geelong in a BM84 last month. That was over 1700m and going up to 2100m should suit, but I there has to be a question mark about a heavy track for him so I am going to pass him over.

Surrey Thunder gets to carry the same weight as Starcaster in this, but if it was run in this country the ex Joseph Tuite runner would have to give him 12lbs. As his rating of 104 would suggest Surrey Thunder was running in good races and he was 5th in the German Derby last year. He also ran pretty well against Addeybb in the Rose Of Lancaster last year. After that he won a Listed Race at Clairefontaine. He has gone to Chris Waller's yard and has run well enough over trips short of his best in his first two starts up in Sydney this prep. He also had excuses as he didn't get a clear run 1st up and 2nd up he finished lame. Testing ground isn't an issue and up to 2100m I think he has a good chance. 

I mentioned Midterm last week as a horse who could have run well in Vow And Declares race, but he came out of that. He isn't a prolific winner, but he ran really well to come 2nd in the Easter Cup at Caulfield last time and he handles testing ground. He's never one to go over board on and he was a 100/1 shot last time, but I am happy to take a small e/w chance on him in this.

Surrey Thunder @ 7/1 with Betfair

Midterm e/w @ 17/2 with William Hill and BetVictor

Sandown R8 (7.25am)

Mystery Love should be the one to go off favourite and she has won 4/6 and bolted up at Caulfield 1st up. The concern for me though is testing ground so I am going to take a couple against her. Barthelona looks set to peak after two good runs so far this prep. 1st up he was beaten a short head at Bendigo, before flying home at Caulfield last month where his final 200m was the 2nd fastest of the day. He disappointed last prep, but those two runs this prep suggest he is back to his best. He will have no worries about the track.

Anjana is the other one I like. She has been highly tried at times and two of her last 5 runs have been in G1 company. Her last run was decent especially given she was found to have an issue after the race at Caulfield. I think she is a good horse and she won her only start on heavy. With blinkers going on for the first time I am hopeful she can put in a big performance.

Barthelona e/w @ 15/2 with Betfred (William Hill are 7/1 with 4 places)

Anjana e/w @ 9/1 with William Hill 4 places

Sandown R9 (7.55)

Annother ex UK horse lines up here in the shape of Buffalo River. He had 4 starts for John Gosden in 2018 winning the last of them. He looked a promising horse at the time and he has built on that promise in Australia. He has won 4 of his 5 starts all on soft or heavy ground as it was last time at Caulfield. The only tie he didn't win was in the Silver Eagle at Randwick in October and given that was his only run of that prep I am guessing all wasn't right that day. He won over course and distance in June and he is likely to try and make all the running. He looks a good horse and is more than capable of winning again

Buffalo River @ 11/10 with everyone

Randwick R2 (3.15am)

Yonkers and Amitto are the two I like here. Yonkers backs up having finished a length 3rd to Welsh Legend who re-opposes here. I think he can reverse the form at these revised weights. That was his first run for six weeks and he had to work hard early on so the fact he was able to stay on gamely for 3rd was pleasing to see. They pulled clear of the rest and with that run under his belt he is capable of going two places better. 

Amitto looks an improving horse and only once has she finished out of the 1st 2 on 8 starts. She has won her last 2 starts and the Warwick Farm performance last time was a good one given she had to come from last to first and was still only 6th 400m from home. She was comfortable at the line and she looks up to winning a race like this.

Yonkers @ 15/4 with Betfair

Amitto @ 11/4 with William Hill

Randwick R3 (3.50am)

Jailbreak is the one I like in this race. Toro Toro did finish 2 places in from over 1200m here last month, but I think Jailbreak can reverse the form. He ran the join fastest last 200m of the day in that contest and that suggests that stepping up to 1400m will be ideal for him. Toro Toro had been prominent the whole way and Jailbreak would have beaten him had the race been over this trip. Jailbreak also has a better draw than he had on that occasion. 

Jailbreak @ 3/1 with Bet365

Randwick R6 (5.45am)

Rocha Clock and So Taken are my two against the field in the this BM78. Rocha Clock made her first start in a G3 here over 1400m last month and she didn't really give herself much of a chance as she was keen out in front. That combined with a lack of a recent run meant she had nothing left in the home straight and she only beat a couple home. Her trainer stated after that race that she would be ridden quieter this time around which should mean a much better performance back in a handicap.

So Taken also drops in class having been in a BM88 last time. She will be held up and will be looking to finish fast. She didn't get a run at all in that race a couple of weeks ago. Indeed she didn't get a clear run until 120m so had no real chance of winning the race. Up in trip to 1300m, which she is 2/2 over, will be ideal and if she gets the breaks she will go close.

Rocha Clock @ 9/4 with Betfair & BetVictor

So Taken @ 9/2 with everyone

Randwick R7 (6.25am)

Godolphin's Hilo is the horse I like in this contest. He is a 3yo going back into all aged handicap company, but I really liked his two runs in 3yo Listed Race's the last twice. I thought he did enough early to make the running last time and the form of that race is strong with Indy Car winning and Icebath finishing 2nd. He won over course and distance 3 starts back in a BM70 and that was a good effort. This is a BM88 but he is clearly a progressive 3yo.

Hilo @ 23/10 with Bet365

[Winning Heart]

Horse Form https://www.irace.com.sg/2020/04/30/free-irace-magazine-for-macau-may-2/

 

[BillyHills]

Concentrating on Randwick and Ascot in Australia

Gufstream, Tampa and Oaklawn (Arkansas Derby) later

431 As: Miss Frost
705 R: Bandersnatch
711 As: Fabergino
750 As: Amelias On Fire

1pt Yankee

 

EW bet
505 R: Miss Invincible 12/1 betvic
945 A: Alpha Sky 9/1 bet365

 

 

[notanotherdonkey]

No bets today on a tricky day and no good betting just for the sake of it.Good Luck and Stay safe#

[Swaning]

Tampa Bay Downs

5:20 9   ELUSIVE RO  
5:55 8   CHECOTAH 
7:29 2   CATSOUTOFTHEBAG  
8:01 4   FIELD LETTERS 
8:33 1   ENGLISH LAUGHTER 
9:05 2   LUCKY RUNS NORTH 
9:37 8   SAYYIDA AL HURRA 

Gulfstream

6:15 6   NACHO PAPA  
7:46 5   VALDOCCO  
8:17 7   ONE HOT DRAMA 
8:48 12  NOTSOSUBTLE 
9:21 6   GUMP  
9:53 14  DREAM MARIE 
10:25 3  NETWORK EFFECT 
10:57 8  PROVEN STRATEGIES 
11:29 4  BRITESIDEOFTHEROAD 

[Darran]

5 winners and an ew 2nd to wake up to this morning. Will be back for the 8 race jumping card at warrnambool on Tuesday morning.

[calva decoy]

Five £4 Win Singles ( been rubbish with multi's just lately )

520 Tampa - MALIO'S 3/1 Sky 

704 Oak P - TEMPT FATE 5/1 Coral 2nd

729 Tampa - CATOUTOFTHEBAG 7/2 Sky Non Runner

736 Oak P - BANK 11/4 Coral 1st

810 Oak P - BANKIT 3/1 Coral 2nd

Staked : £20

Returns : £19

Edited May 2, 2020 by calva decoy
Results update

[Nigwilliam]

Just one ew for me

GP 9.53. La Rusia  25/1.   4pl.     Unpl.

Edited May 3, 2020 by Nigwilliam
Result

[Trotter]

Bit of an odd one at Oakland tonight

It's the Grade One Arkansas Derby ...... but it's split into 2 Divisions

So they have 2 Arkansas Derbies ........ strikes me as very odd for a grade one race

It's inconceivable that the Epsom Derby would be split into two divisions and we'd ahve two Derby winners that year ... I'm guesing there must be some kind of ballot system in the event of having 50 entries so they get the number down to the maximum field size for the track

[Trotter]

Blimey, there's 10 non runners (so far!) in the 6.27 at Tampa Bay

This American racing is a bit of a farce ..... ?

[BillyHills]

14 minutes ago, Trotter said:

Blimey, there's 10 non runners (so far!) in the 6.27 at Tampa Bay

This American racing is a bit of a farce ..... ?

Having some horrific weather at the moment, and a lot of horses are only declared on certain surfaces. If they go on dirt the turf horses pull out!!

Nightmare

[roger2256]

Few good nap prospects today , 

Gulfstream

18.45 Or'effice    8/13

20.17 Loriloupies    3/1

21.53 Envoutante  2/1

22.25 Network Effect 6/4

Tampa  Bay

17.20 malios  2/1

17.55 Publisist  2/1

18.50 One more drink 6/4

35 x 20p 4fold 

25p ew roll up 

£7.50 stake 

 

[BillyHills]

Tonight

Think the 2 favourites should win the Arkansas Derby's

1129 Charlatan
1243 Nadal

Its about a 3/1 Double

 

1019 Op: Fearless
1025 Gp: Network Effect
848 Gp: Positive Phil

1pt Trixie

 

 

[kroni]

going for a lucky 15 at Oaklawn Park again, that is a strange one @trotter having 2 division derby

£0.66 e-w lucky 15 Ladbrokes

Storm The Court @ 12/1 - 00:43 Oaklawn Park

Warrior's Charge @ 9/1 - 00:04 Oaklawn Park

Anneau D'Or @ 11/1 - 23:29 Oaklawn Park

Two Thirty Five @ 7/1 - 20:10 Oaklawn Park

[Darran]

4 hours ago, Trotter said:

Bit of an odd one at Oakland tonight

It's the Grade One Arkansas Derby ...... but it's split into 2 Divisions

So they have 2 Arkansas Derbies ........ strikes me as very odd for a grade one race

It's inconceivable that the Epsom Derby would be split into two divisions and we'd ahve two Derby winners that year ... I'm guesing there must be some kind of ballot system in the event of having 50 entries so they get the number down to the maximum field size for the track

It is because it should have been the Kentucky Derby tonight and as it won't be run until September they have allowed more horses to run in this and split it into two.