Tennis Tips - November 5 - November 11

[CzechPunter]

[Grass Cash]

@CzechPunter @opole @ all

Do you guys see any dogs in the Slovakia Challenger event ? I am seeing some things.. but I would like to hear your opinions first.. Because I will post challenger picks later probably.. maybe i can be more accurate , and we can win more money if i hear your guys thoughts first thank u .. last week my results are very good in India to open the thread.. this week .. maybe I will need a little bit of help because the prices for the players I like to bet are not as high this time 

If I remember correctly bratislava courts are much faster indoors that we're seeing in paris.. almost twice as fast.. maybe I could be wrong.. also some opinions could help with this but i prefer to hear leans on players winning their first round matches as underdogs potentially

Edited November 4, 2018 by money44

[opole]

Yes. Bratislava is really fast. Paris is relatively slow, they slowed it down over the years.

I like Horansky to beat Baghdatis.

Horansky is playing at home and has played a very good second half of the season with some really good performances on solid level.

Baggy should be happy about starting the off season...

[CzechPunter]

Honestly don't see all that much right now.

Quentin Halys to beat Simone Bolelli at 2.03 with Pinnacle

I'd have Halys as the favourite here, not Bolelli. Home conditions + the Frenchman managed to win their only previous meeting not that long ago. 1.80 would be fair imo.

Filip Horansky to beat Marcos Baghdatis at 3.00 with BetVictor

Horansky might not be the most trustworthy players indoors, but he played well in Moscow and should be pumped up for a home tournament. Baghdatis failed against Olivetti last week, not being sharp at all in the decider from what I can gather, and Horansky is going to play his heart out. He's not the favourite, but the odds look worth taking.

[Grass Cash]

37 minutes ago, opole said:

Yes. Bratislava is really fast. Paris is relatively slow, they slowed it down over the years.

I like Horansky to beat Baghdatis.

Horansky is playing at home and has played a very good second half of the season with some really good performances on solid level.

Baggy should be happy about starting the off season...

I initially am thinking about Horansky also.. most of his good results were on clay courts.. this is completely different, and he has never met Bags before.. who is the better player. Probably i'm going to steer clear off this one.. Bacchinger is a player I don't believe in, and he loses alot. Lucas Klein another player from Slovakia has some interesting results this year including a routine straight sets win over Horansky 6-3, 6-4 indoors. He's also 6'4 and probably has a huge serve.. I may be on this one later. There's a couple more matches.. I personallly think Horansky is a trap to lose. 

[Grass Cash]

Horansky also plays defensively which could play right into marcos hands and let him take control of the points

[opole]

I think a defensive player is probably the worst matchup for Baghdatis right now as he made a lot of easy errors recently.

[Grass Cash]

You guys can find something better than Horansky. Clearly better player is Marcos.. Horansky is not a rising star on tour or a good indoor player.. and he has lost first round in this tournament almost every year with very poor results .. only sneaking by a lower ranked player in 2014. 

[Grass Cash]

1 hour ago, opole said:

I think a defensive player is probably the worst matchup for Baghdatis right now as he made a lot of easy errors recently.

I think a defense of player like this is the perfect type of guy to get Marco’s back on track in the win column. Allowing him to get into a groove and maybe the indoor surfaces will also help him he had a carpet match would be a good practice match for this tournament

Edited November 4, 2018 by money44

[opole]

Horansky played Bratislava only in 2016, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010 and 2009. 

2016 he lost to Medvedev in the first round after winning three matches in qualifying.

He also has a very tight loss to De Schepper in 2013 who was a durable player at this time especially indoors.

You can't compare his results from 2014 or 2010 with 2018 where he had some big wins and results on a high level although it was on clay most of the time.

Horansky is a very good player imo who can easily beat Baghdatis here.

I mean come on...Baghdatis lost to Albano Olivetti last week. Olivetti is one of the worst players i have ever seen on that level. Apart from the serve Olivetti has NOTHING.

Edited November 4, 2018 by opole

[Grass Cash]

Olivetti has good results at indoor tournaments, and this was marcos first indoor tournament.. I am trying to save you here Opole because I'm not sure why you think Horansky is a talented player.  He's not going to win just because its in Slovakia... take a look at the guy i recommend .. there is also better odds on Klein to win.. Bacchinger loses all the time.. he plays outdated style 

@opole

[Grass Cash]

if you have to bet horansky .. you can insure the action with 72% on horansky and 28 % klein , and you will take no loss on the two matches if one of them wins, and you can still profit big if horansky wins if you have to do it 

[Grass Cash]

And also the loss to Medvedev in 2016 .. this is not the same Russian player.. he is still very young and improving at that time.. and indoor surface is not his best either... Medvedev great on outdoor hardcourt, grasscourt

[opole]

Did you watch the match vs Olivetti? Baghdatis was horrendous apart from solid serving but you can not even name that as a factor as Olivetti is a complete disaster in terms of returning. Olivetti is CRAP. The guy only can serve. It was absolutely awful how Baggy was dominated in the rallies by such a bum like Olivetti.

Baggy usually struggles vs. good movers on court and Horansky is a good mover. 

Horansky looked really good in Moscow. He was serving well there, playing aggressive tennis and mixed things up (serve & volley). Was a good approach. If he shows up like that and Baggy plays like last week Horansky will beat Baggy.

I think Bachinger will beat Klein quite comfortably. Klein is all serve and ballbashing, nothing spectacular. If he has a good day he is dangerous but normally he is making too many errors. Furthermore he is facing a very, very solid Bachinger who is in decent shape recently and looked good for two or three months now although he didn't win every match. Odds are not catching my eyes and looking quite fair as i doubt Klein has more than 30-35% here.

I did not bet on Horansky yet. I am not convinced either but i think this might be the best bet in Bratislava for R1.

[Grass Cash]

ok thats fine , and what is your opinion on the Klein - bacchinger match.. I have never heard that Baghdatis struggles against good movers.. no i did not watch the match vs olivetti

but i do think players have bad matches, and look completely different when u bet on them the next match @opole

Edited November 4, 2018 by money44

[Grass Cash]

I can tell you i'm watching a little bit of tape on Klein, and i'm impressed with his groundstrokes.. i assume his serve is good also ... haven't seen yet 

[Grass Cash]

19-23 +24.31 units

Lukas Klein to beat Matthias Bachinger @ 3.55 with Heritage

I have read report that German is taking several med timeouts in his last match, and serving very poorly.. I've also seen video of final vs simon in Metz. German's fitness looked questionable there also.. maybe he is tired.. Home Slovak player advanced to the R16 of this tournament last year, and he should be able to again with an opponent tailored for him to defeat. 

 

[opole]

i just checked my stats since my comeback here in october and i am shocked about the numbers...

Total bets: 19

Won: 11

Void: 0

Lost: 8

Staked: 63.5 Units

Back: +81.92 Units

Yield: 129%

[AlicanteDream]

Timea Bacsinszky to win against Alize Cornet. Relying on the previous meeting between these two.

[Grass Cash]

10 hours ago, AlicanteDream said:

Timea Bacsinszky to win against Alize Cornet. Relying on the previous meeting between these two.

Good luck I have no clue who will win it scares me to bet against cornet in France.  Hope your win tho

[opole]

ITF Colina

Ivania Martinich vs. Fernanda Labrana 

=> Fernanda Labrana @ 3.27 Pinnacle stake: 3/10

Labrana was Top 50 junior player, competed on the highest international level there and then decided to switch to go to college. Texas signed her last year: https://texassports.com/news/2017/11/27/womens-tennis-signs-chilean-standout-fernanda-labra-a.aspx

Now she is playing for Texas, going into her second year and playing some pro tournaments from time to time.

Martinich is 25 years old, was never ranked higher than 692 and is average imo. She had a couple of bad losses this year and she hasn't played for almost 1,5 months now.

I think this is pretty equal matchup. 

[opole]

ATP Next Gen Finals

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Jaume Munar

=> Jaume Munar @ 6.45 5dimes stake: 2/10

Just a try. Tsitsipas played a lot recently. Quarterfinal Tokyo, Third round in Shanghai, won Stockholm, reached the semifinal in Basel. I think he ran a bit out of gas in Paris last week vs Dzumhur as he looked gassed. I don't know how much he has left for that tournament in Italy. Last year a couple of players were playing with 50-60% there as it is more an exo tournament than a real one. The tournament also has some special rules as it is played under Fast 4 tennis rules. So it might be a special tournament wit own rules maybe. 

 

[Grass Cash]

27 minutes ago, opole said:

ATP Next Gen Finals

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Jaume Munar

=> Jaume Munar @ 6.45 5dimes stake: 2/10

Just a try. Tsitsipas played a lot recently. Quarterfinal Tokyo, Third round in Shanghai, won Stockholm, reached the semifinal in Basel. I think he ran a bit out of gas in Paris last week vs Dzumhur as he looked gassed. I don't know how much he has left for that tournament in Italy. Last year a couple of players were playing with 50-60% there as it is more an exo tournament than a real one. The tournament also has some special rules as it is played under Fast 4 tennis rules. So it might be a special tournament wit own rules maybe. 

 

I don't like the way stefanos has been serving, and his recent results not impressive.. could be a chance here I agree .. Great call

[Grass Cash]

Who is this Caruana playing De MInaur in the Next gen finals ?

[CzechPunter]

A somewhat random wildcard that will probably try to just ball-bash his way to glory.

[Grass Cash]

Alexander Zverev to win ATP World Tour Finals @ 10.00 with Heritage

I have also insured this action with low stakes on Anderson, Fognini, and Isner. I will probably cover the whole field behind Alexander with insurance bets before the tournament actually starts.. But I won't place on Djokovic or Federer. 

We have super talented player here. I believe he is fitter than some other players in the draw. For example.. Djokovic looks very worn down in Paris Finals when Khachanov take title there. 

 

[CzechPunter]

@money44 Fognini? A substitute to win?

Fiona Ferro to beat Pauline Parmentier at 2.83 with Pinnacle

I have to play this at 2.83. Parmentier is rarely a reliable favourite and Ferro has been in a decent form recently, so I'd have her as only a small underdog here. The 0-3 H2H record is bothering me a bit, of course, but Ferro has improved a lot over the last year and their most recent meeting took place in 2016.

[Grass Cash]

19-24 +23.31 units 

John Isner to beat Novak Djokovic @ 7.1 with Pinnacle

Kei Nishikori to beat Roger Federer @ 3.97 with Pinnacle

@CzechPunter It's just to cover my action. I don't actually believe fognini will win.. but I don't think Djokovic will win either and the odds on Fogs are 66/1.  I have been wrong before but I like to bet based on value, and insure my bets with additional chances to cover no losses. So the Fognini play is not official here, because I don't list it in bold. 

There is lots of times when big money underdogs win, and we see no chances for this prior to the event starting.. This is example with Fognini

Edited November 6, 2018 by money44
fognini odds mistake , fixed

[CzechPunter]

But the problem is that Fognini might not even start?

@opole Those are some truly impressive stats, even though the number of bets is obviously fairly small. Keep up the good work, it's much appreciated by everyone here!

[Grass Cash]

I don't know that Fognini is questionable to play .. i just assumed he is a part of the event .. don't worry @CzechPunter I don't risk much on this