CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - November 5 - November 11

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@CzechPunter @opole @ all

Do you guys see any dogs in the Slovakia Challenger event ? I am seeing some things.. but I would like to hear your opinions first.. Because I will post challenger picks later probably.. maybe i can be more accurate , and we can win more money if i hear your guys thoughts first thank u .. last week my results are very good in India to open the thread.. this week .. maybe I will need a little bit of help because the prices for the players I like to bet are not as high this time :beer

If I remember correctly bratislava courts are much faster indoors that we're seeing in paris.. almost twice as fast.. maybe I could be wrong.. also some opinions could help with this but i prefer to hear leans on players winning their first round matches as underdogs potentially

Edited by money44

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Yes. Bratislava is really fast. Paris is relatively slow, they slowed it down over the years.

I like Horansky to beat Baghdatis.

Horansky is playing at home and has played a very good second half of the season with some really good performances on solid level.

Baggy should be happy about starting the off season...

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Honestly don't see all that much right now.

Quentin Halys to beat Simone Bolelli at 2.03 with Pinnacle

I'd have Halys as the favourite here, not Bolelli. Home conditions + the Frenchman managed to win their only previous meeting not that long ago. 1.80 would be fair imo.

Filip Horansky to beat Marcos Baghdatis at 3.00 with BetVictor

Horansky might not be the most trustworthy players indoors, but he played well in Moscow and should be pumped up for a home tournament. Baghdatis failed against Olivetti last week, not being sharp at all in the decider from what I can gather, and Horansky is going to play his heart out. He's not the favourite, but the odds look worth taking.

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37 minutes ago, opole said:

Yes. Bratislava is really fast. Paris is relatively slow, they slowed it down over the years.

I like Horansky to beat Baghdatis.

Horansky is playing at home and has played a very good second half of the season with some really good performances on solid level.

Baggy should be happy about starting the off season...

I initially am thinking about Horansky also.. most of his good results were on clay courts.. this is completely different, and he has never met Bags before.. who is the better player. Probably i'm going to steer clear off this one.. Bacchinger is a player I don't believe in, and he loses alot. Lucas Klein another player from Slovakia has some interesting results this year including a routine straight sets win over Horansky 6-3, 6-4 indoors. He's also 6'4 and probably has a huge serve.. I may be on this one later. There's a couple more matches.. I personallly think Horansky is a trap to lose. 

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You guys can find something better than Horansky. Clearly better player is Marcos.. Horansky is not a rising star on tour or a good indoor player.. and he has lost first round in this tournament almost every year with very poor results .. only sneaking by a lower ranked player in 2014. 

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1 hour ago, opole said:

I think a defensive player is probably the worst matchup for Baghdatis right now as he made a lot of easy errors recently.

I think a defense of player like this is the perfect type of guy to get Marco’s back on track in the win column. Allowing him to get into a groove and maybe the indoor surfaces will also help him he had a carpet match would be a good practice match for this tournament

Edited by money44

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Horansky played Bratislava only in 2016, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010 and 2009. 

2016 he lost to Medvedev in the first round after winning three matches in qualifying.

He also has a very tight loss to De Schepper in 2013 who was a durable player at this time especially indoors.

You can't compare his results from 2014 or 2010 with 2018 where he had some big wins and results on a high level although it was on clay most of the time.

Horansky is a very good player imo who can easily beat Baghdatis here.

I mean come on...Baghdatis lost to Albano Olivetti last week. Olivetti is one of the worst players i have ever seen on that level. Apart from the serve Olivetti has NOTHING.

Edited by opole

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Olivetti has good results at indoor tournaments, and this was marcos first indoor tournament.. I am trying to save you here Opole because I'm not sure why you think Horansky is a talented player.  He's not going to win just because its in Slovakia... take a look at the guy i recommend .. there is also better odds on Klein to win.. Bacchinger loses all the time.. he plays outdated style 

@opole

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Did you watch the match vs Olivetti? Baghdatis was horrendous apart from solid serving but you can not even name that as a factor as Olivetti is a complete disaster in terms of returning. Olivetti is CRAP. The guy only can serve. It was absolutely awful how Baggy was dominated in the rallies by such a bum like Olivetti.

Baggy usually struggles vs. good movers on court and Horansky is a good mover. 

Horansky looked really good in Moscow. He was serving well there, playing aggressive tennis and mixed things up (serve & volley). Was a good approach. If he shows up like that and Baggy plays like last week Horansky will beat Baggy.

I think Bachinger will beat Klein quite comfortably. Klein is all serve and ballbashing, nothing spectacular. If he has a good day he is dangerous but normally he is making too many errors. Furthermore he is facing a very, very solid Bachinger who is in decent shape recently and looked good for two or three months now although he didn't win every match. Odds are not catching my eyes and looking quite fair as i doubt Klein has more than 30-35% here.

I did not bet on Horansky yet. I am not convinced either but i think this might be the best bet in Bratislava for R1.

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ok thats fine , and what is your opinion on the Klein - bacchinger match.. I have never heard that Baghdatis struggles against good movers.. no i did not watch the match vs olivetti

but i do think players have bad matches, and look completely different when u bet on them the next match @opole

Edited by money44

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19-23 +24.31 units

Lukas Klein to beat Matthias Bachinger @ 3.55 with Heritage

I have read report that German is taking several med timeouts in his last match, and serving very poorly.. I've also seen video of final vs simon in Metz. German's fitness looked questionable there also.. maybe he is tired.. Home Slovak player advanced to the R16 of this tournament last year, and he should be able to again with an opponent tailored for him to defeat. 

 

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10 hours ago, AlicanteDream said:

Timea Bacsinszky to win against Alize Cornet. Relying on the previous meeting between these two.

Good luck I have no clue who will win it scares me to bet against cornet in France.  Hope your win tho

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ITF Colina

Ivania Martinich vs. Fernanda Labrana 

=> Fernanda Labrana @ 3.27 Pinnacle stake: 3/10

Labrana was Top 50 junior player, competed on the highest international level there and then decided to switch to go to college. Texas signed her last year: https://texassports.com/news/2017/11/27/womens-tennis-signs-chilean-standout-fernanda-labra-a.aspx

Now she is playing for Texas, going into her second year and playing some pro tournaments from time to time.

Martinich is 25 years old, was never ranked higher than 692 and is average imo. She had a couple of bad losses this year and she hasn't played for almost 1,5 months now.

I think this is pretty equal matchup. 

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ATP Next Gen Finals

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Jaume Munar

=> Jaume Munar @ 6.45 5dimes stake: 2/10

Just a try. Tsitsipas played a lot recently. Quarterfinal Tokyo, Third round in Shanghai, won Stockholm, reached the semifinal in Basel. I think he ran a bit out of gas in Paris last week vs Dzumhur as he looked gassed. I don't know how much he has left for that tournament in Italy. Last year a couple of players were playing with 50-60% there as it is more an exo tournament than a real one. The tournament also has some special rules as it is played under Fast 4 tennis rules. So it might be a special tournament wit own rules maybe. 

 

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27 minutes ago, opole said:

ATP Next Gen Finals

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Jaume Munar

=> Jaume Munar @ 6.45 5dimes stake: 2/10

Just a try. Tsitsipas played a lot recently. Quarterfinal Tokyo, Third round in Shanghai, won Stockholm, reached the semifinal in Basel. I think he ran a bit out of gas in Paris last week vs Dzumhur as he looked gassed. I don't know how much he has left for that tournament in Italy. Last year a couple of players were playing with 50-60% there as it is more an exo tournament than a real one. The tournament also has some special rules as it is played under Fast 4 tennis rules. So it might be a special tournament wit own rules maybe. 

 

I don't like the way stefanos has been serving, and his recent results not impressive.. could be a chance here I agree .. Great call

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  • Punters Lounge Forum Tips

    • 1.15 Chelt - Normal Norman 50/1 Betfair 0.5ew 
    • Sunderland vs Wycombe The first game up for the previews in this reduced schedule weekend is League One's 2nd placed team Sunderland playing mid-table side Wycombe in a 3pm kick-off this Saturday at the Stadium of Light. I'm picking this match because it's a classic case where the home side should seal a business-like win. Sunderland are experiencing somewhat of a return to stability under the stewardship of Jack Ross. The former St Mirren manager has overseen a huge number of changes at the club over the summer. 23 players departed the club and Ross essentially built the playing squad from scratch. It was a risk but it's paid off. The Black Cats are 2nd in the table with 35 points from 16 league games and just one defeat all season. Wycombe are not doing too badly so far. A number of pundits tipped them to struggle this season but Gareth Ainsworth, also known as "Wild Thing", continues to defy the odds at the club he's been with for six years now. The Chairboys are in 15th place with 21 points from 17 league games meaning they are 6 points clear of the relegation zone. This game sticks out for me for the simple reason that Sunderland are undefeated at home and Wycombe have really struggled on their travels with just one victory in their 8 away matches so far. I've no doubt that Ainsworth will have his players fighting until the end but the home team should have too much for the visitors. Wycombe have won 4 of their last 6 games and have only lost by more than 1 goal on the road once this season but I think this game will be a tough one for them. Sunderland -1 @ 2.88 with SpreadEx Sunderland HT/FT @ 2.70 with Ladbrokes @Papa Lazarou, @freestylerx, @allyhibs, @iBetting, @betcatalog, @Magic0024, @malabgd, @kulikTS, @golakeh1, @Unnamed, @willie82, @dogmeister, @TheEdge, @JJG, @allthethings, @Mindfulness, @the bastardian, @teddybear3011, @Marek76, @salmonman, @Unnamed, @mij0sim, @jazzman02, @Bobby Vegas, @Teodore, @Tiffy, @nenri981, @MangoTheThird, and @sajtion, are you guys going to put any bets down this weekend?
    • 1.50 Cheltenham - Movie Legend @ 13/2 Bet365
    • Good luck today 12.20 Lingfield Interesting that the two best backed horses are both got the same trainer and owner! Quite like the best priced of the two: Diamond Lady Each Way @ 10-1  BOG Skybet
    • Cheltenham 2.25    Mr Whipped    3-1 William Hill
    • 27-37 +28.37 units Bastian Malla to beat Kuzmanov @ 2.83 pinnacle Hiroki Moriya to beat Uchiyama @ 2.44 pinnacle Hope to ride a good run, cash both of these. time for a huge comeback after the past couple days. I've seen Moriya's last match vs Oliveira. His technique was incredible at the net. I hope that his legs are ready, Because, if they are.. It's going to be a long day for for Uchiyama. I am a big fan of Moriya's ball striking. 
    • Friday 16/11/2018 NO SELECTIONS
    • #33. 2.00 Lingfield - Uncle Jerry @ 5/6 William Hill - Flat Kelly stake of 44.99pts (assessed chance of 75%) LTO winners for 16/11
      Uncle Jerry has won his last two races since the application of blinkers (worn again today). Penultimate race saw the 4th win next time out (as well as Uncle Jerry) . His last race was won comfortably by 4L's while going away. Pretty much has similar conditions as those wins today and could well be in front of the handicapper for a tilt at a potential third win. Grouping wise (spreadsheet), after applying the available price filter, reduces the group from 105 to 20 qualifiers with 15 of those winning next time (75%). DB list for group 7999 after filtering for SP.
    • 12.20 Lingfield  KATH'S LUSTRE 1pt win 10/1 PaddyPower BOG
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