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2018 Ascot Challenge Cup H'Cap - Tips & Trends


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This coming Saturday we have two big field handicaps to look at;

15:35 Ascot 
Challenge Cup Heritage Handicap (Class 2) (3YO plus)
Screen Shot 2018-10-01 at 11.44.53.png

Trends
9/10 Aged 5 or less
10/10 Ran within 43 days
8/10 Rated 100 or more
7/10 Carried 9st or more
6/10 Had last ran in the Ayr Gold Cup
15/20 had 4 or more starts this season
15/20 had won over 7f previously
14/20 Finished in first 6 last time
 

16:00 Redcar 
Racing Uk Straight-mile Series Final Handicap (Class 2) (3YO plus)
Screen Shot 2018-10-01 at 11.45.33.png

Trends

9/10 Aged 6 or less
9/10 Ran within 35 days
7/10 Drawn 7 or less
7/10 Carried 9st or more
7/10 Rated 84 or more
12/13 Had won at this trip.
10/13 placed in firts 4 last time ( 5 won)
 

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Passed challenge cup through sheet 

Cape Byron    313

Flaming spear  312 

Shady McCoy  308 

Growl    306 

Growl I think wants shorter than this tough 7f so omitted ....shady McCoy is a little behind top 2 so also omitted for win purposes but we chance ...flaming spear ran a fantastic race last and at first glance I ruled out after penalty but sheet spotted jockey claim meaning effectively only penalised 1lb so serious chances .....this race generally goes to lightly raced improving type and cape Byron definately fits that profile ..  top 2 for me 

Cape Byron 10pts win 13/2 tote

Flaming spear 10pt win 13/2 tote 

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Ascot: Challenge Cup Heritage Handicap (Class 2) (3YO plus)

Trends Selecion

9/10 Aged 5 or less
We lose Flaming Spear, Above The Rest, George Brown, Firmament, Shady McCoy, Growl, Raising Sand, Aces


10/10 Ran within 43 days
We lose Il Primo Sole, 


8/10 Rated 100 or more
We lose Ripp Orf, Gilgamesh


7/10 Carried 9st or more
We lose Lake Volta, Goo Effort, Vale Of Kent


15/20 had 4 or more starts this season
We lose Raydiance


15/20 had won over 7f previously
We lose Cardsharp

Selections
1pt Cape Byron 6/1 bet365
1pt Escobar 14/1 Coral

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4.35 Redcar : Straight Mile H'Cap

9/10 Aged 6 or less
We lose Silvery Moon

9/10 Ran within 35 days
We lose Dawaleeb

7/10 Drawn 7 or less
We lose Masham Star, Kaeso, Knighted, Brother McGonnagal, Racemaker, Poets Dawn, Mon Beau Visage

7/10 Carried 9st or more
We lose Alfred Richardson, Give It Some Teddy, Parys Mountain, Fashion Theory

Selections
1pt Bravery 25/1 bet365
1pt Royal Shaheen 16/1 Paddy Power

 

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Red car straight mile 

Masham star   308

Knighted      305 

Mon beau visage  300

This has got to be between top 2 .....knighted is improving fast and still looks well hccapped...looks perfectvtype for this ......masham star was outclassed last time and really doesn't like going beyond a mile ......was leading at8 pole so this drop to 8f us perfect on straight track .....got to run well ....

10pt win both ....no prices yet 

3pt ew doubles with challenge cup top 2 in both

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ASCOT

Gone with 

3 and 4 year olds (there are no 5 year olds !)

must be a D winner - 7f is a specialist trip

Draw - middle to high 

Leaves me with short list of six which is too many so I'm going with the two CD winners from my short list …. both just about EW prices with 18 runners

Rip Orff at 8/1

Raydiance at 25/1

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3.35 Ascot - Struggled to pick the bonesout of this one been through it so many time think raising sand has decent e/w shout but cant back it at a single figure price no value imo. Shady mcoy & growl  are decant price but the later has struggled at 7f and the former being 8 may find few of these young ones to quick for him here.  Ended up with 3 big priced horses   so small e/w stakes for me   Above the rest 28/1 Raydiance 25/1 & Aces 28/1

4.35 Redcar - one strong fancy here gutted i missed the 25's im   on e/w at 16/1  i tipped it up last week Bravery  and i said he has 2 ways of running but iis very well  in and i think he can go very close in a wide open race.

good luck all

Edited by Tedthewolf
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3.35 – Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f 
15/16 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less   
14/16 – Won between 2 and 4 previous races   (1,2,4,10,13,14,15,17)
13/16 – Won over 7f previously   (3,9,12)
11/16 – Had raced within the last 30 days   (7)
11/16 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old   (18)
11/16 – Raced at Ascot previously   
10/16 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight   (5,6)
9/16 – Raced 7 or more times that season   (8)

Lake Volta @ 33\1 1 Pt EW (1-5  1/5) Paddy Power

Ripp Orf @ 17\2  2 Pts EW (1-4  1/4)  Unibet

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19 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:

Challenge Cup Heritage Handicap (Class 2) (3YO plus)

image.png.c22e8eb0a39d83d4350032a6e0440898.png

CAPE BYRON @ 6/1

FLAMING SPEAR @ 13/2

Racing Uk Straight-mile Series Final Handicap (Class 2) (3YO plus)

image.png.d7b9ed59c067eeaf58983768620f39bc.png

GIVE IT SOME TEDDY @ 10/1

KNIGHTED @ 9/2

 

Never in doubt :lol:lol

GIVE IT SOME TEDDY @ 20/1 :loon

Getting the hang of this big handicap lark :cigar

 

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