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Tennis Tips - October 15 - October 21

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On 16.10.2018 at 12:33 AM, opole said:

Challenger Ismaning

Gianluca Mager vs. Christian Seraphim

=> Christian Seraphim ML @10 5dimes stake: 3/10

I think this is worth a shot. Seraphim is a very dangerous player on indoor surfaces as he is very tall and has a huge serve + very good skills at the net. He was one of the best doubles player at college in his team at Wake Forest. This is his home tournament as he is from Munich and Ismaning is only 15 km away from there. I think he should like the conditions. 

Mager is a solid player and has some skills and his game style also can be dangerous on faster surfaces as he is hitting hard and serving well but he has almost played only clay tournaments recently and his record at indoor tournaments isn't that good.

I expect some close sets and tiebreaks and maybe Seraphim can upset Mager with some luck.

Seraphim 76(5) 76(5) :drums

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On 10/15/2018 at 11:33 PM, opole said:

Challenger Ismaning

Gianluca Mager vs. Christian Seraphim

=> Christian Seraphim ML @10 5dimes stake: 3/10

I think this is worth a shot. Seraphim is a very dangerous player on indoor surfaces as he is very tall and has a huge serve + very good skills at the net. He was one of the best doubles player at college in his team at Wake Forest. This is his home tournament as he is from Munich and Ismaning is only 15 km away from there. I think he should like the conditions. 

Mager is a solid player and has some skills and his game style also can be dangerous on faster surfaces as he is hitting hard and serving well but he has almost played only clay tournaments recently and his record at indoor tournaments isn't that good.

I expect some close sets and tiebreaks and maybe Seraphim can upset Mager with some luck.

What a shout!! Wins 7-6, 7-6 Amazing 

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Belinda Bencic to beat Vera Lapko at 1.79 with Unibet

The two played a crazy match last week, with Bencic crushing Lapko in the first set before having a complete mental breakdown and even crying at one point. Since then, she's found some tremendous form though and she's also semi-home now, so chances are that there won't be any breakdowns this time around. At 1.79, I'm willing to chance that.

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Very strange day. Nothing is catching my mind so far. I thought about Ymer/Ymer in doubles because they did well in 2016 at Stockholm Open but their odds dropped over night and now i am not willing to take the bet as they lost CLEARLY to the same doubles team at Bastad Open earlier this year.

Seraphim again with BIG odds but his opponent today is one of the hottest players on tour in terms of form and shape: Ugo Humbert. I do not think Seraphim can win this as his groundgame is too one dimensional.

Unfortunately the only bet i was about to take ended in a walkover for the team i wanted to bet on: Mies/Podlipnik in doubles (Moscow).

Edited by opole

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Well, Halep has officially anounced today that she will not be in Singapore for her back problems. Obviously, Sloane had no intentions of winning that match against Jabeur (unnecessary for her). Actually, im thinking in a theory involving Kiki and Pliskova. I think that both players knew that Halep would not play in Singapore for her back problems, and they knew that just before their respective matches in Moscow against Zvonariova and Sasnovich. Sloane, Kiki and Pliskova inscribed in this tournament to secure a place in Singapore. Well, all of them have lost in the first round but they all have a place for Singapore…

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@darko08 That's probably not a theory, but a fact.

Ons Jabeur (+3.5) to beat Anastasija Sevastova at 1.94 with Unibet

Unibet are still holding this line, while other bookies have already adjusted theirs to +3, which is more fair imo. I really liked Jabeur today and it's clear that she's full of confidence, while Sevastova has already played three three-setters without being particularly convincing in either of them. The +3.5 line certainly appeals.

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Monfils -1.50 (AH) @ 1.775 with Pinnacle

Monfils had an easy match against Bemelmans in the previous round with a 1st serve of 77%, 11 aces and 15 games in total, while Tsonga had a very tight match against Pella with a 1st serve of 67%, 12 aces and 37 games overall. The record between them is 4-3 (for Tsonga), but the last match between them was in 2016, so for me those stats are not important now. By their performance in the previous round, I think Monfils will win here, since he’s having a slightly better serve.

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Fabio Fognini to beat Hyeong Chung at 2.20 with bet365

I’m a little bit surprised by these odds (don’t know exactly If there is something that escapes me or the odds are just these because Fabio’s mentality). Fabio did semifinals here the last year (she lost against Dimitrov). He did a good Asian Tour, reaching final in Chengdu and semifinal in Beijing (he won against Bemelmans, Ebden, Fritz, Albot, Rublev and Fuscovics). The Asian Tour of Chung has been horrible, winning only 1 match (Hurcackz). He lost in the 1st round in Chengdu against Felix Auger-Aliassime, in the 1st round in Tokyo against Shapovalov and in the 2nd round in Shanghai against Cecchinato. I have to recognize that he played very well in the first two rounds, winning against Fritz and Kudla in straight sets. Anyway, Fognini has more experience and has been playing very well the last weeks so at these odds I think that there is value on him. 

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Davis Cup

Pedro Sousa vs. Lloyd Harris

=> Lloyd Harris @ 2.85 Sbobet 3/10

I know it's clay and in Portugal but Harris is on a excellent run in general and i think he also can play solid on clay if he has the confidence going for his shots and he should have that after nearly cracking into Top 100. He is a very good mover despite his height and he can also play longer rallies, he is very versatile with good technique. Sousa might be the slight favorite here but i doubt it's that clear, i have it near 50/50.

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2 hours ago, opole said:

Davis Cup

Pedro Sousa vs. Lloyd Harris

=> Lloyd Harris @ 2.85 Sbobet 3/10

I know it's clay and in Portugal but Harris is on a excellent run in general and i think he also can play solid on clay if he has the confidence going for his shots and he should have that after nearly cracking into Top 100. He is a very good mover despite his height and he can also play longer rallies, he is very versatile with good technique. Sousa might be the slight favorite here but i doubt it's that clear, i have it near 50/50.

very weak performance, harris losing 16 16 in 50minutes...

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Fabio won the 1st set and was leading the 2nd one 2-1 when Chung has retired. The bet in bet365 is considered void so definitely this is not my week. Anyway I will post the other bet I had on my mind for today (probably my last one for this week).

Ernests Gulbis to beat Jack Sock at 1.73 with William Hill

What can I say about Sock? He’s absolutely out of form and has no confidence. The last time he won 2 consecutive matches was in 2017 in the ATP Finals. He defends a lot of points at this end of the season so we will see him going out of the top 100. He suffered a lot against Elias Ylmer (7-5, 3-6, 6-3) in the 1st round. Gulbis comes from the qualy (winning against Benneteau and Eriksson in straight sets). He won against Mikael Ymer (6-4, 6-3) in the 1st round and Shapovalov (6-2, 6-4) in the 2nd one so he has won all his matches in straight sets. Gulbis is playing solid (0 breaks conceded against Ymer and Shapovalov) so I see him winning here against Sock.

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Daniil Medvedev to beat Karen Kachanov at 2.00 with William Hill

Nothing much to say here. Both players are playing well but Medvedev is actually doing better than Karen. Brilliant display from Daniil in Winstom-Salem and Tokyo while Karen did nothing remarkable in the last weeks. If nothing escapes me I think that at these odds all the value is on Medvedev.

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ATP Vienna Qualifying

Sebastian Ofner vs. Ruben Bemelmans

=> Sebastian Ofner @ 2.75 5dimes stake: 4/10

Bemelmans was really weak in Antwerp this week vs. Monfils and it was his home tournament where he had to defend a Semfinal from last year. Of course Monfils is a better opponent than Ofner but overall the Belgian looked really poor with his shot selection and made a lot of easy errors. He looked a bit like the season is already over for him. Ofner is playing at home and might be grab up some confidence after a weak season overall to have a good week in Vienna. I like him but he is too inconsistent so he lost a lot of ranking spots during the year as he was pushing into Top 100 earlier.

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Pierre-Hugues Herbert to beat Cameron Norrie at 1.80 with bet365

P-H Herbert deserves to be bigger favourite than this. He's playing way better than Cameron now and he will likely qualify for Vienna. Cameron has his success earlier this season but now he seems out of form.

Ernests Gulbis to beat Stafanos Tsitsipas at 3.00 with bet365

Time for the record to be broken, Martin Klizan had his chance to break the record in St. Petersburg but failed miserably and stops at 6 straight won first ATP final matches. Ernests can be the first player ever to win his first 7 ATP final appearances and he's played good enough this week for that to become a reality. Stefanos is good but so is Ernests and this match will probably be quite even so the value should be on the latvian.

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On 20.10.2018 at 10:28 AM, opole said:

ATP Vienna Qualifying

Sebastian Ofner vs. Ruben Bemelmans

=> Sebastian Ofner @ 2.75 5dimes stake: 4/10

Bemelmans was really weak in Antwerp this week vs. Monfils and it was his home tournament where he had to defend a Semfinal from last year. Of course Monfils is a better opponent than Ofner but overall the Belgian looked really poor with his shot selection and made a lot of easy errors. He looked a bit like the season is already over for him. Ofner is playing at home and might be grab up some confidence after a weak season overall to have a good week in Vienna. I like him but he is too inconsistent so he lost a lot of ranking spots during the year as he was pushing into Top 100 earlier.

Ofner losing 63 36 46.

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Challenger Lima qualifying

Orlando Luz vs. Conner Huertas del Pino @ 3.43 Sbobet 4/10

Huertas del Pino is a talented player, he didn't play much on the circuit so far but it was due to playing college tennis for Auburn. He has a huge serve and aggressive groundstrokes, i watched him a couple of times at college and i think he has some real potential. His results on the pro circuit are looking good so far, yesterday he beat Blanch a very good us prospect and top junior player. I give him a shot today. 

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1 hour ago, opole said:

Challenger Lima qualifying

Orlando Luz vs. Conner Huertas del Pino @ 3.43 Sbobet 4/10

Huertas del Pino is a talented player, he didn't play much on the circuit so far but it was due to playing college tennis for Auburn. He has a huge serve and aggressive groundstrokes, i watched him a couple of times at college and i think he has some real potential. His results on the pro circuit are looking good so far, yesterday he beat Blanch a very good us prospect and top junior player. I give him a shot today. 

Huertas del Pino wins 63 62

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  • Punters Lounge Forum Tips

    • Wetherby 3.50 GALLOWS POINT e/w 7/1 betvictor
    • 15:05 Chantilly (FR): Subridere @ 9/2 SkyBet
    • miss mumtaz  2.00 huntingdon thanking you
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    • Denis Istomin to beat Lukas Lacko at 1.50 with Unibet Denis has a 7-1 lead in this matchup and I'd be surprised to see him lose this one honestly. Lukas should encounter enough problems for him to lose this matchup again. I see no big obstacles for Denis not to win this so 1.50 is fair enough and should be taken.
    • One little Accy i like too. Bingham was talking on a podcast about this being a "bonus" tournament and he has done what he needs to qualfy for Sheffield. Screams to me that he will lay down for Ronnie. Robertson could easily cover this handicap and Trump, although Williams is abit of value, should beat Williams in all reality. 2pts J. Trump -2.5, N. Robertson -1.5 & R. O'sullivan -3.5  10/1 Ladbrokes
    • Parlay at 7.30 with Unibet Paolo Lorenzi to beat (+3.5) Felix Auger-Aliassime at 2.28 See above Mike Ymer to beat Noah Rubin at 1.75 See above Kristyna Pliskova to beat Yanina Wickmayer at 1.83 Kristyna met Yanina just last week in Guadalajara and won in a deciding set tie-break and I'm of the opinion that Yanina just won her last match because her opponent was tired after winning Guadalajara 125k. She'll encounter a lot more problems to deal with now.
    • Today we have Judd Trump Vs Mark Williams and Neil Robertson takes on Selby at 1pm and tonight Ronnie takes on Bingham. The evening game will carry over to tomorrow. I'm going to leave the Trump Vs Williams match, but I do see value in Robertson to beat Selby at over evens. Selby likes the longer format, but he's in no form right now and certainly not in the same form as Robertson. 5pts N.Robertson to beat M.Selby 11/10 bet365
    • Mikael Ymer to beat Noah Rubin at 1.75 with Unibet Mike has already beaten Noah once and it was in the challenger final of Noumea this season in straight sets and judging by the way he played in last match I'd say he's good enough to win this one.
    • Paolo Lorenzi to beat (+3.5) Felix Auger Aliassime at 2.28 with Unibet I like Paolos chances in this matchup. Felix is still a rather crude talent and if he had troubles to beat Luca Vanni he'll have even more troubles this match, at least enough troubles to not be able to cover this handicap. Paolo is quite a stable player from the baseline, he's similar to Pablo Cuevas and his game is working well enough on this hardcourt in Miami for him to withstand any possible onslaught from Felix. I'll try this handicap to see how good Paolo is right now and I already know Paolo isn't bad. We'll see if he covers. 
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