CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - October 15 - October 21

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Elias Ymer to beat Maximilian Marterer at 2.10 with Paddy Power

The home conditions are the clincher for me here, as Ymer has nearly always been able to perform reasonably well in Sweden. Both guys are playing rather poorly these days, but I don't see what makes the home guy the underdog honestly - he's not that worse than Marterer overall and nearly all the different situational factors are working for him as well.

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Mackenzie Mcdonald to beat Nicolas Jarry at 2.00 with bet365

Mackenzie impressed me taking the first set against Bautista in Shanghai (and he won Raonic in the previous round). I saw him serving well and holding long rallies against Roberto. Im not impressed by the victory of Jarry against Cilic in Shanghai. I saw that match and Cilic absolutely dominated Jarry (he won because Cilic did one of the most epic disconnections I ever seen on him).

Leonardo Mayer to beat Vasek Pospisil at 2.10 with bet365

Pospisil is favourite here because Mayer suffered an injury in the US Open and has just played 2 matches since that. In the first one he was destroyed by Berrettini in straight sets but in the second one he won a set against Gasquet who actually is playing very well. I don’t like Pospisil at all and the point here is if Mayer is 100% recovered. If he does I see him better than Vasek (I think he does because he won 1 set against an in-form player like Gasquet 1 week ago). Both players have good serve but Mayer should be better on rallies.

Frances Tiafoe + Vera Lapko at 1.92 with bet365

Feliciano is playing the last matches of his career. Tiafoe feels good in this kind of surface and he’s not mathematically qualified for the Next Gen Finals in Milan so I expect from him a good performance. Carina is the defending champion here but she’s actually in a bad form. Lapko is playing better (she won against Bencic in Linz and almost won against Pavlyuchenkova). Like I said, Carina is the actual champion here but I don’t care because she’s not doing well actually. Lapko is a big hitter and I think that Carina can’t contain her power.

The main reason why Mackenzie and Mayer are not favourites here is because bookies are not sure about if they are 100% well physically, so be careful (personally i think that one of them at least has to win)

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Garbiñe Muguruza (-5,5) to beat Stefanie Vogele at 1.80 with bet365

Vogele looks like the kind of player that Mugu easily destroys. She lost in Linz in the 1st round against Johanna Larsson in 3 sets, in Tashkent in the 1st round against Potapova in 3 sets, in Korea in the 2nd round against Su-Wei Hsieh (6-2, 6-1) and lost by a double 6-0 against Mónica Puig in the US Open in the 1st round. I have found an interesting fact about Garbiñe, the last 8 matches that she has won in hard courts covered this line: Sara Sorribes (6-3, 6-1), Ana Bogdan (6-2, 6-1), Kumkhum (6-2, 7-5), Makarova (6-0, 6-4), Golubic (6-0, 6-1), Van Uytvanck (6-4, 6-0), Bencic (6-2, 6-4) and Shuai Zhang (6-3, 6-0). Considiring all this I think this line can be covered.

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Daria Kasatkina to beat Lesia Tsurenko at 1.66 with bet365

Final bet for me. I have to say that I’m not convinced with actual form of Kasatkina but there are some interesting reasons to go with this one. Daria did beat Tsurenko in straight sets (6-4, 7-5) just 3 weeks ago in Wuhan. Daria has points to defend (she did final here the last year losing against Julia Gorges). Considering that is played in Moscow the crowd obviously will be with Daria. The negative part is that she retired from China, but that was for a gastrointestinal illness 2 weeks ago so I expect that she will be fine for this one.

Edited by darko08

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16 hours ago, darko08 said:

Daria Kasatkina to beat Lesia Tsurenko at 1.66 with bet365

Final bet for me. I have to say that I’m not convinced with actual form of Kasatkina but there are some interesting reasons to go with this one. Daria did beat Tsurenko in straight sets (6-4, 7-5) just 3 weeks ago in Wuhan. Daria has points to defend (she did final here the last year losing against Julia Gorges). Considering that is played in Moscow the crowd obviously will be with Daria. The negative part is that she retired from China, but that was for a gastrointestinal illness 2 weeks ago so I expect that she will be fine for this one.

Sadly I have to say I get the feeling Lesia will beat Daria in straight sets

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Andrey Rublev to beat Nick Kyrgios at 2.50 with Pinnacle

Rublev is going to care, but what about Kyrgios? I'm not so sure honestly with the season ending and given his performance against Klahn last time out. At 2.50, the home guy must be worth a shot on value terms.

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8 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Lesia seems up for it tonight, possible we might see a turnaround if Daria wins first set

Taking that back. You were right @darko08 Daria is just fine tonight, has no problems at all winning her match. Early break up in second set after winning first, she's cruising.

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Mikael Ymer to beat Ernests Gulbis at 2.10 with bet365

Ernests never liked playing in Stockholm after an incident where he got arrested by the swedish police about 9 years ago. Then he said he would never play in Stockholm again but yet here he is qualified and ready to go. Mikael was at 1.80 to beat Ernests earlier this season indoors in Rennes challenger and I did bet that Mikael would win but he missed a few match points in second set and completely lost his head after that. But this time he's at home where he really feels he has a chance of winning. He pushed Mischa Zverev last season in Stockholm and did well in Båstad this summer so I see no reason why he should be the underdog tomorrow. He could very well do like Elias did tonight.

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1 hour ago, four-leaf said:

Taking that back. You were right @darko08 Daria is just fine tonight, has no problems at all winning her match. Early break up in second set after winning first, she's cruising.

I only could saw the second set. So close... A lot of breaks but that was expected

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Anna Kalinskaya to beat Kristina Mladenovic at 3.00 with bet365

Anna knows the feeling of winning a top player (she did beat Caroline Garcia in straight sets the last year in Kuala Lumpur) and this year has played the final draw of the AO (beating Zvonariova, Boserup and Kherkhove in the qualy) and the US Open (beating Grace Min, Mandy Minella and Brengle in the qualy). In the US Open she did lost in the 1st round against Julia Gorges but she took a set from her (6-2, 6-7, 6-2). She was born in Moscow so I expect a big motivation from her. Mladenovic is the favourite and has more experience but considering that she’s not playing her best tennis Im looking for an upset here.

Taylor Fritz to beat Hyeong Chung at 2.00 with bet365

Based only in the results of this Asian Tour. Fritz has won 6 matches (Chun-hsin, Kukushkin, Querrey, Zeballos, Klizan and Haase) while Chung has won only 1 match (Hurkacz).

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Challenger Ismaning

Gianluca Mager vs. Christian Seraphim

=> Christian Seraphim ML @10 5dimes stake: 3/10

I think this is worth a shot. Seraphim is a very dangerous player on indoor surfaces as he is very tall and has a huge serve + very good skills at the net. He was one of the best doubles player at college in his team at Wake Forest. This is his home tournament as he is from Munich and Ismaning is only 15 km away from there. I think he should like the conditions. 

Mager is a solid player and has some skills and his game style also can be dangerous on faster surfaces as he is hitting hard and serving well but he has almost played only clay tournaments recently and his record at indoor tournaments isn't that good.

I expect some close sets and tiebreaks and maybe Seraphim can upset Mager with some luck.

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Andrea Petkovic to beat Alison Van Uytvanck at 2.00 with bet365

I don't know what makes Alison favourite here. She did semifinal in Linz so she did a good tournament there but before that she was in a 7 losing streak. Petkovic also did semifinal in Linz and i prefer her at these odds.

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Challenger Ismaning

Jeremy Jahn vs. Dustin Brown

=> Jeremy Jahn ML @3.210 Pinnacle 4/10

Brown is playing an average year so far and looking awful most of the time. He is even looking worse on bis best surfaces like grass or indoor hard so far and i am not convinced about the fact he is the clear favorite vs. Jahn today in Ismaning. Jahn is more a claycourt player but he has a good consistency in his groundgame and i think this might be even enough to trouble a hot/cold player like Brown massively. 

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Bad start for me so I post these 2 bets and If they gone wrong I will take a rest because I don’t like the tournaments played in this week (every year we have strange matches and results here probably because is the end of the season and don’t know which players have considered that their season is over).

Alex de Minaur (-2,5) to beat Philipp Kohlschreiber at 1.90 with bet365

Nothing much to say here. Philipp has not played a match since the US Open while Alex has won against Sugita, Mackenzie Mcdonald, Dzumhur, Gilles Simon, Pospisil and Benoit Paire in the Asian Tour.

Karolina Pliskova + Kiki Bertens at 2.14 with betfair

Both players are playing for a place in the WTA Finals in Singapore. Halep, Kerber, Wozniacki, Osaka, Kvitova and Stephens are classified so there are 2 more places that will be disputed by Pliskova (3840), Bertens (3710) and Svitolina (3850). The opponent of Karo will be Zvonariova while Bertens will face Sasnovich. Absolutely important matches for Karo and Kiki so I expect a good performance from them.

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Anett Kontaveit to beat Kristina Mladenovic at 1.58 with Unibet

Kontaveit has been operating at a higher level all year long and she has a 3-0 record against Mladenovic, so there should be at least slight value in the odds. It's also the only bet that's caught my eye for tomorrow so far.

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7 hours ago, opole said:

Challenger Ismaning

Jeremy Jahn vs. Dustin Brown

=> Jeremy Jahn ML @3.210 Pinnacle 4/10

Brown is playing an average year so far and looking awful most of the time. He is even looking worse on bis best surfaces like grass or indoor hard so far and i am not convinced about the fact he is the clear favorite vs. Jahn today in Ismaning. Jahn is more a claycourt player but he has a good consistency in his groundgame and i think this might be even enough to trouble a hot/cold player like Brown massively. 

Jahn 6-1 1-0ret.

at Pinnacle bet is won because of 1 set rule

Edited by opole

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3 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Anett Kontaveit to beat Kristina Mladenovic at 1.58 with Unibet

Kontaveit has been operating at a higher level all year long and she has a 3-0 record against Mladenovic, so there should be at least slight value in the odds. It's also the only bet that's caught my eye for tomorrow so far.

Hey, CzechPunter
Just some local information for this match. I'm no tennis expert by any means, but I'm Estonian as Kontaveit and read her interview after the first round win against that young Russian prospect and Anett said that she is feeling a bit sick, is tired and haven't been able to train properly, so not sure if this bet has value on current situation...

In any way - good luck with the bet if you have already placed it and let's hope for Anetts win ;=)

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  • Punters Lounge Forum Tips

    • Mr Magill 505 taunton 12/1 bet365
    • Denis Istomin to beat Lukas Lacko at 1.50 with Unibet Denis has a 7-1 lead in this matchup and I'd be surprised to see him lose this one honestly. Lukas should encounter enough problems for him to lose this matchup again. I see no big obstacles for Denis not to win this so 1.50 is fair enough and should be taken.
    • One little Accy i like too. Bingham was talking on a podcast about this being a "bonus" tournament and he has done what he needs to qualfy for Sheffield. Screams to me that he will lay down for Ronnie. Robertson could easily cover this handicap and Trump, although Williams is abit of value, should beat Williams in all reality. 2pts J. Trump -2.5, N. Robertson -1.5 & R. O'sullivan -3.5  10/1 Ladbrokes
    • Parlay at 7.30 with Unibet Paolo Lorenzi to beat (+3.5) Felix Auger-Aliassime at 2.28 See above Mike Ymer to beat Noah Rubin at 1.75 See above Kristyna Pliskova to beat Yanina Wickmayer at 1.83 Kristyna met Yanina just last week in Guadalajara and won in a deciding set tie-break and I'm of the opinion that Yanina just won her last match because her opponent was tired after winning Guadalajara 125k. She'll encounter a lot more problems to deal with now.
    • Today we have Judd Trump Vs Mark Williams and Neil Robertson takes on Selby at 1pm and tonight Ronnie takes on Bingham. The evening game will carry over to tomorrow. I'm going to leave the Trump Vs Williams match, but I do see value in Robertson to beat Selby at over evens. Selby likes the longer format, but he's in no form right now and certainly not in the same form as Robertson. 5pts N.Robertson to beat M.Selby 11/10 bet365
    • Mikael Ymer to beat Noah Rubin at 1.75 with Unibet Mike has already beaten Noah once and it was in the challenger final of Noumea this season in straight sets and judging by the way he played in last match I'd say he's good enough to win this one.
    • Paolo Lorenzi to beat (+3.5) Felix Auger Aliassime at 2.28 with Unibet I like Paolos chances in this matchup. Felix is still a rather crude talent and if he had troubles to beat Luca Vanni he'll have even more troubles this match, at least enough troubles to not be able to cover this handicap. Paolo is quite a stable player from the baseline, he's similar to Pablo Cuevas and his game is working well enough on this hardcourt in Miami for him to withstand any possible onslaught from Felix. I'll try this handicap to see how good Paolo is right now and I already know Paolo isn't bad. We'll see if he covers. 
    • Huntingdon 2.30 Deputy's Oscar 16/1 bet365 ew
    • Ilaya       2:10      Wetherby    18/1 @ Hills
    • 2.10 Wetherby - Think Ahead  25/1@paddypower
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