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keef75

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1 hour ago, Xtc12 said:

@keef75 I get no returns from BTTS when filtered. You might look when you get back. Thanks.

@Xtc12, unfortunately there isn't much in the way of BTTS prices in the data that I managed to get hold of and if there aren't any prices for a particular match then it's not included in the output.  I should review it at some point and, if necessary, remove the BTTS options.

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7 minutes ago, pmxpo said:

I checked your site and didn't quite understand the prediction. Are all the tips BTTS?

No, If you click on the blue 'Filters' button just above the results you'll see all the options you can play around with.  In the first drop-down box you can choose the bet type: home wins, draws, double chance, etc..  Choose that first and then change the other filters.  The best thing to do is to load up one of the saved sets and you can see what's going on, make small changes to see if you can improve it.

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I've added the results for the weekend along with today's matches.  The data was only available this morning.  Tomorrow's match data isn't complete yet so I'll try and add that later if I can.  I won't be adding anything else until 4th Sept after today.

It's nice to see that other people are saving sets, I enjoy looking through them so please keep it up!  It makes all the hard work worthwhile.

See you all soon!

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Hope everyone is doing ok! I've been downloading the PDF files on my phone each day and will process them all when I return next Tuesday/Wednesday. I'm happily laying in the Portuguese sun at the moment. Has anyone discovered any brilliant systems?

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Quick update - I'll be adding all the data from last week/this week some time tomorrow.  I also have a new feature to show off which should boost potential profits, that'll be available tomorrow too as I still have a little bit of work left to do on it.

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@keef75 Sorry for being a bit trivial mate. In a few of the loaded sets I have come across an error for the accumulators. In the summary you have the years broken down into the number of bets each year, which is correct, but, in the stats above it your Total Bets is equal to the number of single bets not accumulator bets. 

In a profitable system it will make the Win Rate and ROI better.

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1 minute ago, Xtc12 said:

@keef75 Sorry for being a bit trivial mate. In a few of the loaded sets I have come across an error for the accumulators. In the summary you have the years broken down into the number of bets each year, which is correct, but, in the stats above it your Total Bets is equal to the number of single bets not accumulator bets. 

In a profitable system it will make the Win Rate and ROI better.

Thanks for pointing that out, I'll take a look at it today and get it fixed.  I'm happy for people to let me know about errors like this as I want to ensure it's all working properly.  Accurate win rates and ROIs are very important!

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9 minutes ago, Xtc12 said:

Thanks, great work by the way. :ok

Thanks. 

I've fixed that error.  There were only three saved sets that were affected and I've updated the number of bets and win rates in these to reflect the correction.  Much better win rates on them now! :)

Please let me know if you spot anything else that isn't right.

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I've added all the data between 27th August and 8th September so we're up to date now.  You can use the orange 'Expand Date Range' button to quickly include the new data in a loaded set to see how it has performed over the last couple of weeks.

Regarding the other thing I've been working on... it's a win/loss multiplier staking strategy, as can be seen on the horse racing part of the site, that can really boost the bank as long as the losing runs and the loss multiplier aren't too high.  However, with the horse racing version, because of the timing of the races and the need to follow it live, it's easy to control as it's on a per bet basis.  The football one has to be done on a per day basis because the outcome of one match might not be known before the next one starts (or multiple matches could start at the same time etc.) so you wouldn't know whether to multiply or reset to basic stake level.  The stake for each match in the day has to be the same.

So with this in mind I set about writing something that does just that, however as it stands the stake for the next day's matches depends on the last result of the previous day.  If there are three matches in a day and the last one listed is a loser (and you have a loss multiplier set at greater than 1.00) then the stake for next day's matches will increase.  Alternatively, if the first two lose but the last one wins the stake will reset to the original base stake and start again.

What are people's thoughts on this?  I've considered calculating the net win/loss per day and if it's positive reset but if it's negative keep multiplying until you reach the maximum stake amount.  I think this is the best way to do it but it's going to be an effort to code and I'm not looking forward to it! :eek

I wanted to get the multiplier strategy copied into the live version on rdata today but I'm not happy with it as it stands so might hold off for a bit longer until we can decide what's best to do with it.

 

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I've been quiet on here over the past few days as I ended up spending all weekend creating a mobile game for the wife lol. Anyone play the old PopCap game, Alchemy?  Well I couldn't find it in the Play Store so I had to make my own.  That's all done now so it's back to the footy and horses.

I think I've just cracked the 'multiplier on a loss' staking strategy so I'll be doing a bit more testing this evening to make sure everything is working as it should and then I'll copy it into the live version for everyone to have a play around with later. 

I wanted it to increase the stake by a percentage on a loss but it had to have the same stake for each selection per day.  It was calculating the following day's stake based on the last selection of the day - if it was a winner the stake would revert to base stake, if it was a loser the stake would increase according to the multiplier regardless of if the day ended in profit or loss.

However, I've now managed to group the days' bets so that any profit (or break even) will reset the stake for the following day.  I'll post another message later this evening after I've copied it into rdata.

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18 hours ago, Rivilearner said:

Hi Keef, its really being long, hope you haven't forgotten my filter? 

Hope its still in your To-do-list

Riv, could you do me a favour and give me a full explanation of what you need for this new filter please?  I've read through the whole thread and can't find the details, maybe it was on the thread that was deleted a few weeks ago.

I know it's the (average?) number of goals scored and conceded by each team in the last x number of games but having had a quick think about it are we going to need all these extra drop-down boxes?

Min goals scored - home team
Max goals scored - home team
Min goals scored - away team
Max goals scored - away team
Min goals conceded - home team
Max goals conceded - home team
Min goals conceded - away team
Max goals conceded - away team

That seems like a lot of extra options to me and it's certainly going to limit the number of results that are returned (if being very specific).  Hopefully you can work out what you need and let me know.

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Thanks keef, I believe if you incoperate all this options in your site it's going to be a one stop site for punters. 

what I need is not far fetch from you you have outlined, 

average number of goals scored x games and conceded x games HOME TEAMS

average number of goals scored x games and conceeded AWAY TEAMS 

The result I believe could be used to generate Over 2.5 goals and BTTS

If possible we could see the last games that was played by both teams

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20 hours ago, keef75 said:

Riv, could you do me a favour and give me a full explanation of what you need for this new filter please?  I've read through the whole thread and can't find the details, maybe it was on the thread that was deleted a few weeks ago.

I know it's the (average?) number of goals scored and conceded by each team in the last x number of games but having had a quick think about it are we going to need all these extra drop-down boxes?

Min goals scored - home team
Max goals scored - home team
Min goals scored - away team
Max goals scored - away team
Min goals conceded - home team
Max goals conceded - home team
Min goals conceded - away team
Max goals conceded - away team

That seems like a lot of extra options to me and it's certainly going to limit the number of results that are returned (if being very specific).  Hopefully you can work out what you need and let me know.

I don't think min and Max goals scored and conversed won't be necessary it will make the job cumbersome

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4 hours ago, Rivilearner said:

I don't think min and Max goals scored and conversed won't be necessary it will make the job cumbersome

For it to work with under and over I think we will need all those options.  Have a look at these examples and let me know if I've understood you correctly:

Over 2.5 goals - You want to bring back all matches where the home team scored at least 2 goals and conceded 1 in their last x number of games and where the away team has scored at least 1 goal and conceded 1 goal in their last x number of games.  You'll need to set the home scored minimum to 2 and maximum to the highest number available (let's say 10).  You'll need to set the home conceded minimum to 1 and the maximum to 10.  For the away team, their min/max scored will be 1 and 10.  Conceded will be 1 and 10.

Under 2.5 goals - You want to bring back all matches where the home team scored no more than 1 goal and conceded no more than 1 in their last x number of games and where the away team has done the same.  You'll need to set the home scored minimum to 0 and maximum to 1.  You'll need to set the home conceded to the same.  Then do the same for the away team.

So, it looks like we'll need the eight options to cater for over 2.5 (set the min to the desired number and the max to 10 for both teams) and under 2.5 (set the min to 0 and the max to the desired number for both teams).  If we just have an 'average number' scored/conceded for each only matches where the average is exactly that will be returned - I highly doubt any matches will be returned as they'll have several decimal places due to the calculations.

Please correct me if I'm wrong - I'm struggling a bit with this one to be honest.

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actually what I was looking at getting is average goals score last 5 or 6 games Home/ Away 

Average goals conceeded last 5 or 6 games Home and away 

if you add other option fine and good, but this is how I generate my over 2.5. So with this tool I get to know how profitable it is on the long run. 

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