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keef75

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2 hours ago, keef75 said:

Data for 2015/16 is now available.  Use the orange 'Expand Date Range' button after you've loaded up a set to include the new data.

Some of the saved sets didn't perform very well in 2015/16.  I've modified one of mine to take into account the extra matches, it's called 'K1 MULTISTRAT 4 2015' if anyone is interested.  Not too bad on the max stake and decent profits each year.  It'll be interesting to see how the rest of this season goes.

Yes,great graph on that one K1.Checked mt azarak on the multiples filter and it does excellent ,just not 2015,strange.

 

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At some point I'm going to have to choose a system to start using in real life...  I have saved another decent set - K1 MUTLI DRAWS V2 MODIFIED 2 - which is another good performer across all years. 

Of all the systems I've run 'draws' seem to be the best performing.  The odds for the draw are so much better than the home or away win so need a much lower strike rate to succeed.  With a losing streak of only 9 matches and a 1.5x loss multiplier (bearing in mind that matches on the same day have the same stake) this produces some really promising results from a base stake of £10.  The maximum stake across the 697 bets between 6 March 2015 and 21 September 2018 is just £75.94 which, when using a start bank of £1000, is quite low.  The first time this maximum stake is used it produced returns of over £300 with two winners on the same day.

This is definitely a contender for use in real life.  There's one eligible match tomorrow in the Norwegian leagues that I'll be keeping a very close eye on.  I'm going to monitor for the next couple of weeks and then maybe dive in.  To be honest, it all seems too good to be true and I'm waiting for someone to point something out to me that I've totally overlooked!

 

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@Matthew, that's such a generous offer, you must have tons of data and have spent countless hours preparing it - I know I've spent upwards of 100 hours working on the football and racing data that is on the rdata site. 

I'm not one to turn down free data, what format is it all in please and should I provide you with some ftp details for you to upload it to my server or shall I retrieve it from yours?

Many thanks.

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1 hour ago, Matthew said:

@keef75 It runs into the 10's of 1,000's of hours I reckon over the past 10 years. If it helps someone else achieve something and continues the fight against the bookmaker then all good.

I'll send you a PM with the best email address to use.

This is really great. We are making head way in the fight against the bookies

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amazing work @keef75 ! I really like the site and everything works like a charm. 

I think if you test a footy system on BF the ROI might be even higher as BF normally has the highest odds compared to bookies. Just a question if liquidity is there for some absurd leagues I guess.

I downloaded some data into excel, to play with the staking as I like a points per bet system that adjusts every day to the current bank (bank / 100 points per bet). 

Going to test some of this in real life I think. Only concern would be - a few months in and you stop the project ;).. 

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Thanks for the kind words, @liero1.  A new staking strategy could be added to the site that uses a percentage of the bank, that's something I'll look into but it'd have to be the same stake for each match per day as they kick off at all times throughout any given day and it wouldn't be possible to know the result of one match that only started, say, half an hour earlier than the next one etc.  As for the BF data, I just can't get hold of what I need but, yes, I'd almost guarantee (even taking into account a 5% commission rate) that the ROI would be higher.  I'd also say that it's probably the only place that would allow you to place all these winning bets without getting limits imposed on your account.

I'm only covering up to 60 leagues at the moment and don't have any plans to increase that.  I've mentioned before that every time I want to add another season's worth of data it's a long 4-5 hours of manipulation of data and it's a really horrible job.

There is a danger that I can't be bothered keeping it up to date any more, especially as there is absolutely no financial gain to be made by making it all public but I'd like to think that the dozens of hours I put into it this far would keep me going.  The 10-15 minutes it takes each day to keep it updated isn't too onerous either.  I can even download the files I need and batch process them every few days if I really have to.

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Bro @keef75 to be honest updating the data daily is not an easy job but I believe the passion is what has really being driving you on, personally if you could do it once in a week I hope it wont be much problem for you.

Hope you wont close down this great project.

NB: still waiting for my O2.5 :D

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Hi Riv, I'm happy to keep updating it each day - I honestly have no intentions of stopping any time soon as it really doesn't take that much time. Except today as, for some reason, Cybet split the results PDFs into UK and rest of the world so I had to process 2 PDFs.  It still only took an extra few minutes though and I've had a nice lazy day today.

The horse racing part of the site has slowly been slipping, my target is to update that once a week on a Friday but I only managed to process the last week's data today.  I feel my efforts are better directed at the football as that's where most interest (from other people as well as my own) is.

I have to admit defeat on your O2.5 for the time being.  I can't see it happening without adding all those extra options we discussed previously.  The filter list is complicated enough as it is without another load of options being thrown at users.  I hope you understand and aren't too disappointed with my decision here. :\

I'm trying to get into game development properly too so I've been spending a lot of time on that over the last week or so.

 

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1 hour ago, keef75 said:

Thanks for the kind words, @liero1.  A new staking strategy could be added to the site that uses a percentage of the bank, that's something I'll look into but it'd have to be the same stake for each match per day as they kick off at all times throug

Cool! Well I suppose I would note the exact system criteria anyway to be able to continue in case you stop presenting the eligible matches. 

I certainly hope this will make you some financial impact though! Us all haha :) 

Happy to keep a diary somewhere once I get involved with real money.

Reg. horses. You probably know adrian's database? That is an amazing piece of work as well and lets you create all sort of systems. Horses are a different game though, completely agree. 

For all systems -  I think the beauty is to find something that lacks any negative longer time periods (ideally months but at least years), a high enough number of bets per month to give you a minimum of statistical evidence/significance (here a thousand a year would be nice.. this is certainly easier to get on Horses) and of course a solid ROI around 10% per anno at least.. 

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1 minute ago, liero1 said:

Reg. horses. You probably know adrian's database? That is an amazing piece of work as well and lets you create all sort of systems. Horses are a different game though, completely agree. 

I'm not familiar with Adrian's database but I'm interested, where can I find it?

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Hi @keef75 

I noticed there are some football games on today and tomorrow that won't pop up on the 'eligible games', and they fit the chosen system's criteria. Is that because it just hasn't been updated or am I doing something wrong in the game selection? :)

Thanks!

Another quick thing I noticed. The Brazilian Serie is sometimes Seria , not sure if and how that collides with Italian Seria A, also if that always gets accumulated correctly as it has two league names for the same league.

Cheers

liero

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Hi @liero1,

Some games just won't show up as they are missing some information on the Cybet PDFs.  I'm never able to include all matches for the day as I generally have to remove 10-20% of them due to incomplete info - maybe the away team's position is missing or the draw odds are missing.  I just remove these from the imports in Excel so, unfortunately, they'll be omitted from the eligible matches section.  It's a bit of a pain but it's the only way I can do it at the moment.  Maybe I'll put a note on the eligible matches section stating this is what happens.

Regarding the league names, this doesn't matter when looking at the matches as they're all code-based in the background e.g. BEL1 is the highest Belgian league and that is used across all the data tables.  Depending on where the data came from (historical or from August 2018) the league names might have slight inconsistencies.  I plan on sorting these out one day but it's not high on my list as it doesn't cause any problems with the actual calculations.

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Yes I believe that's the case.  Anything prior to 10th August 2018 is from Indatabet's Bet365 data, it's a massive file you can get from Indatabet that contains years' worth of results for loads of leagues.  I use this data to generate league tables for each league/season when adding the historical data so I can establish league positions for each historical game.

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On 1.10.2018 at 5:46 PM, keef75 said:

Hi @liero1,

Some games just won't show up as they are missing some information on the Cybet PDFs.  I'm never able to include all matches for the day as I generally have to remove 10-20% of them due to incomplete info - maybe the away team's position is missing or the draw odds are missing.  I just remove these from the imports in Excel so, unfortunately, they'll be omitted from the eligible matches section.  It's a bit of a pain but it's the only way I can do it at the moment.  Maybe I'll put a note on the eligible matches section stating this is what happens.

Regarding the league names, this doesn't matter when looking at the matches as they're all code-based in the background e.g. BEL1 is the highest Belgian league and that is used across all the data tables.  Depending on where the data came from (historical or from August 2018) the league names might have slight inconsistencies.  I plan on sorting these out one day but it's not high on my list as it doesn't cause any problems with the actual calculations.

totally fine @keef75 ! thanks for all the work. I just check the tables manually now, that just takes a few minutes.

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I'll be adding an indicator soon to show whether or not the upcoming eligible matches have been uploaded.  At the moment if there aren't any eligible matches it just says there are either none or the data hasn't been updated and there's no way to tell which one is the case.

I usually upload the upcoming matches a few times a week, on Monday I can normally process Tue/Wed/Thu and then on Thursday I can do Fri/Sat etc. it all depends on how quickly Cybet get their PDFs up on the site - sometimes they put them up but don't fill in all the necessary prices we need so I have to wait.  Results are still being updated every day.

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    Bingo 1
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