Free Football Analysis Tool

[keef75]

Ok, this is the final list (for now):

Austria - Tipico Bundesliga, 2.Liga
Belgium - Jupiler League, Proximus League
Brazil - Serie A, Serie B
Croatia - 1HNL, 2HNL (added these two)
Czech Republic - 1.Liga, Division 2
Denmark - Superliga, 1st Division 
England - Prem, Champ, League One, League Two, Northern
Finland - Veikkausliiga, Ykkonen
France - Ligue 1, 2, National
Germany - Bundesliga, 2.Bundesliga, 3.Liga
Greece - Super League, Football League 
Hungary - OTP Bank Liga
Iceland - Pepsideild, Inkasso Dieldin
Ireland - Premier, Division 1
Italy - Serie A, Serie B
Japan - J League, J2 League
Mexico - Primera, Liga de Ascenso
Netherlands - Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie
Norway - Eliteserien, OBOS Ligaen
Poland - Ekstraklasa
Portugal - Primeira, Segunda
Romania - Liga 1
Russia - Premier Leauge, FNL
Scotland - Prem, Champ, League One, League Two
Slovakia - Fortuna Liga
Slovenia - Prva Liga
Spain - LaLiga, LaLiga2
Sweden - Allsvenskan, Superettan
Switzerland - Super League, Challenge League
Turkey - Super Lig
Ukraine - Premier League
Wales - Premier League, Division 1

[keef75]

All records of matches with teams not in the above leagues have been removed from historical, this season and upcoming (eligible) matches.

I still need to add the historical data for 19 leagues from the list above. I've done 34 so far and there is no data available for 7 of them.

Saved sets will be affected, I'll probably run something on them so that they update with the new correct figures (bets/ROI etc.)

Edited August 19, 2018 by keef75

[Rivilearner]

Is there any possibility of using stats to generate Over/under? I believe most likely not now. 

I don't think team position could be used in that effect.which is what we currently have on ground

[Rivilearner]

I have an idea which I would like to back test using last 6 match goal averages for both teams to predict over or under 2.5

[keef75]

The under/over 2.5 goal odds are included in the historical data I have so I'll take a look at that, maybe if choosing over/under then I'll display another 2 dropdown boxes asking how many past games do you want to take into account and at what average do you want to filter at.  Nice idea, Riv.

[Rivilearner]

Thanks 

I use betdevil.com to check last 6matches averages for both teams. 

1) if home average is say 2.5 and 

2) away team average is say 2.8 I can now deduce that the match probability will be over 2.5. Which is 2.5 + 2.8/ 2= 2.6. 

Though both teams should be high scoring teams or conceding team in last 6 games

Edited August 19, 2018 by Rivilearner

[Rivilearner]

 Hope am not giving you too much stress 

it could also be implemented for Both teams to score market

[keef75]

It's no problem.  Unfortunately there is no BTTS data in the historical data I downloaded although I am looking into working out the odds for these, that'll come another day though as i have plenty to do at the moment.

I'll get the Under/Over stuff done tomorrow.

[keef75]

Data for 2017/2018 is now in for 49 out of the 60 leagues!!!  That's all the historical stuff I intend to add for the time being.

I haven't done Mexico because of the Apertura/Clausura phases of the season (I still don't know how to work that as it's basically two seasons in one but with the league positions reset halfway through).  It also turns out there wasn't data for 10 leagues in the indatabet spreadsheet despite, at first, looking like there was but still, there are 15301 matches added which should be plenty to try the filters on.

To Do List:
Add a filter for leagues (Riv)
Add the two new drop-down boxes for when Under/Over 2.5 is selected as the bet type (Riv)
Add a chart/graph
Update the saved sets to take into account the historical data

[Rivilearner]

30 minutes ago, keef75 said:

Data for 2017/2018 is now in for 49 out of the 60 leagues!!!  That's all the historical stuff I intend to add for the time being.

I haven't done Mexico because of the Apertura/Clausura phases of the season (I still don't know how to work that as it's basically two seasons in one but with the league positions reset halfway through).  It also turns out there wasn't data for 10 leagues in the indatabet spreadsheet despite, at first, looking like there was but still, there are 15301 matches added which should be plenty to try the filters on.

To Do List:
Add a filter for leagues (Riv)
Add the two new drop-down boxes for when Under/Over 2.5 is selected as the bet type (Riv)
Add a chart/graph
Update the saved sets to take into account the historical data

.pls don't forget last 6 or 5 match goals averages

Edited August 19, 2018 by Rivilearner

[footysystems]

@keef75

 

Possible for ht goals ?? % scored maybe ??

[keef75]

36 minutes ago, Rivilearner said:

.pls don't forget last 6 or 5 match goals averages

@Rivilearner, that's what the two new drop-down boxes are for.

@footysystems, I removed the first half/second half goals columns from the spreadsheet so I don't have that info in my database, sorry.  It'd be a nightmare trying to put it in now I've processed all the leagues, I'd have to do them all again! 

Let me get through the to do list and then we can look at more improvements/additions.

[Kentucky110]

Hi All

When considering BTTS or Over/Under probabilities 

I have my own solution to the above scenarios If you were to go down the route of using the Last 6 games then there could be the possibility of Team A   playing a weaker Team B. resulting in a false prediction

When I make my calculations I only use games where Team A is Higher in the Home Table than the Away team and and Vice Versa where Team B is Higher than the Away team also I only make selections After Both teams have played 6 Home and 6 Away games and I do not include the first 4 Games. Better predictions are achieved after 8 games have been played

I then Add up the Total HOME goals for Team A and divide by number of qualifying games then do the same for Team B AWAY Games add these two figures together and divide by 2 giving me the average

example HOME TEAM (bold Position = game to use)

	Home Team Position		Away Team Position
Result
2-1	6		9
1-1	5		4
3-1	5		11
0-2	4		2
2-1	6		8
2-1	5		12

from the above last 6 games for Team A (home) I would use

2+3+2+2 /4 = 2.25

example AWAY TEAM (bold Position = game to use)

	Away Team Position		Home Team Position
Result
1-2	6		9
1-1	5		4
1-2	5		11
0-2	4		2
0-0	6		8
2-3	5		12

from the above last 6 games for Team B (away) I would use

2+2+0+3 /4 = 1.75

average =2.25+1.75 = 2

this is done for all the games to be played in a League

I then select the 3 Highest averages and from those I select the Highest price for over 2.5

if BOTH teams have a score greater than 1.5 then the game has a possibility of BTTS

a little complicated but easily done in excel I hope you can follow

I follow your Post with interest

Regards Ken

Edited August 20, 2018 by Kentucky110
Grammar Corrections to Original

[keef75]

Thanks very much for this, @Kentucky110, I'll take a look at implementing something along those lines once I've finished the other updates.  I might even give it a special bet type name like 'The Kentucky'.  If it can be done in Excel it can be done in PHP. 

[Rivilearner]

we just need to back test both system and see how it goes. I believe both looks interesting and promising 

[keef75]

To Do List:
Add a filter for leagues - LEAGUE FILTER NOW AVAILABLE
Update the saved sets to take into account the historical data - UPDATED

Plus yesterday's results and tomorrow's matches have been uploaded.

[Rivilearner]

5 hours ago, Kentucky110 said:

Hi All

When considering BTTS or Over/Under probabilities 

I have my own solution to the above scenarios If you were to go down the route of using the Last 6 games then there could be the possibility of Team A   playing a weaker Team B. resulting in a false prediction

When I make my calculations I only use games where Team A is Higher in the Home Table than the Away team and and Vice Versa where Team B is Higher than the Away team also I only make selections After Both teams have played 6 Home and 6 Away games and I do not include the first 4 Games. Better predictions are achieved after 8 games have been played

I then Add up the Total HOME goals for Team A and divide by number of qualifying games then do the same for Team B AWAY Games add these two figures together and divide by 2 giving me the average

example HOME TEAM (bold Position = game to use)

	Home Team Position		Away Team Position
Result
2-1	6		9
1-1	5		4
3-1	5		11
0-2	4		2
2-1	6		8
2-1	5		12

from the above last 6 games for Team A (home) I would use

2+3+2+2 /4 = 2.25

example AWAY TEAM (bold Position = game to use)

	Away Team Position		Home Team Position
Result
1-2	6		9
1-1	5		4
1-2	5		11
0-2	4		2
0-0	6		8
2-3	5		12

from the above last 6 games for Team B (away) I would use

2+2+0+3 /4 = 1.75

average =2.25+1.75 = 2

this is done for all the games to be played in a League

I then select the 3 Highest averages and from those I select the Highest price for over 2.5

if BOTH teams have a score greater than 1.5 then the game has a possibility of BTTS

a little complicated but easily done in excel I hope you can follow

I follow your Post with interest

Regards Ken

The question is do we have the data for HOME and AWAY games only, before talking of implementation.

[keef75]

@Rivilearner - Your over/under additional fields are now available.  When you choose one of the 'Total Goals' bet types you'll see three boxes appear to the right.  They are:

1. No. of Matches - the number of previous matches (x) you want to use to work out the average
2. Min Ave Goals - the minimum average number of goals over the last x matches when the home team was playing at home and the away team was playing away
3. Max Ave Goals - the maximum average number of goals over the last x matches etc.

So, if you want to see the results for over 2.5 goals where the average for the last 6 matches is between 2.80 and 3.00 you'd choose:

1. Bet type = Total Goals - More than 2
2. No. of Matches = 6
3. Min Ave Goals = 2.80
4. Max Ave Goals = 3.00

Then you can obviously use all the other filters as well to limit the results.

WARNING: If you choose a big range of league positions (min/max home position and min/max away position) the calculation can take quite a while to run.  If it looks like nothing is happening just let it run for a few more seconds and you should get some results eventually.

The historical data (pre-10th August) is held in a separate table to the new data (from 10th August) so I can't do calculations on anything from the 10th August 2018 yet hence the lack of today's/tomorrow's eligible matches.  I'm considering merging the two tables but that's a big job to make sure everything still works afterwards so I'm leaving that for a while.

Hope you like it! 

[Rivilearner]

You are a darling

[Rivilearner]

just checked it, but no result output. Am I doing something wrong? 

[Kentucky110]

Hi All

Just for info when I am doing my over under  calculations described above the reason I choose the top 3 per league and then select the Highest price is:-

Lets say Man City have a run of consecutive games like Yesterdays 6-1 win at Huddersfield ( i think you will agree that Man City will be above Huddersfield all they way so the goals would be used at some point) you can be sure the over 2.5 goals odds would be prohibitive as I believe Bookies also look at these trends

so by Taking the Highest price from my top 3 per league I will hopefully eliminate the freak runs that occur

By the way I only keep data for 8 leagues 4 English 4 European More than enough work and I commend you on the number of leagues you are keeping data for

My data sheet also calculates the home and away tables based on the days results

so for example when I update the results on a Saturday the Tables are correct for Sundays Games ( results are entered on a daily basis)

I have found this way to be more accurate than importing/Copying tables on a weekly basis although its a little time consuming

and the team names don't need changing

Keep up the good work I follow in anticipition

 

Regards

Ken

[keef75]

Hi Ken,

It sounds like you have your hands full keeping that up to date too.  How are your results looking?  Decent profits or are you just starting with the seasons?

@Rivilearner - keep an eye on the date ranges.  I made a change so that when you load up a previously saved set it remembers the date range when the set was saved.  Previously it was just returning the whole date range.  I've just tried it with the following and it's returning some rows:

[keef75]

Hmmm, I've just had another play around and I can't seem to get many results although it was returning loads earlier.  The last thing I did was work on the save/load aspect so maybe I've messed something up.  I'm looking into it now.

On further checking it all seems fine.  You do have to be quite generous with your filters, try this one:

I noticed that the odds are quite low on the winners so best to keep the Min SP at 1.01 and then play around with the other options.

Edited August 20, 2018 by keef75

[Rivilearner]

I have being playing around with the options and would like to know what the average numbers under the country name signifies, is it the average for the two teams based on the filters I place or the league average. 

secondly under H/A the numbers there are they filters for current match played or my criteria 

[keef75]

The average under the country name (when looking at over/under bet types) is the overall average number of goals for both teams across the chosen number of historical games.

Under H/A are the total number of home and away matches played in the season.  This only applies to the historical data and should be accurate every time. From 10th August there is a single number which is the approximate number of matches played based on the season start date, number of teams/matches etc.  It's probably accurate to within one game most of the time.

[Rivilearner]

I would like to thank you for this wonderful tool and the time and effort you have put into it and your quick responder. 

Under the country name average it should show the average goal scored by the teams (home/away) based on the filtered match (6 or 5) not average per seaso. 

The number under H/A matches is it the historical  match played or my filtered criteria 

Sorry for the trouble 

 

[Rivilearner]

Average should be goal scored home + goal scored away /2 

ie 2.43+1.89/2=2.16 which should be under 2.5 goal 

1.80+3.22/2=2.51 which is over 2.5 goals 

Hope you understand what I mean

[Kentucky110]

@keef75 Hi there The seasons have just started so no selections as yet will probably be starting mid September. As I only started creating the data a couple of seasons ago (2016/2017) refined the selection process during 2017/2018 the results looked very promising and the 25 or 30 bets made at the tail end of last season resulted in a profit.This encouraged me to to refine the selection process a little more ( as I had more data to research)  I am looking forward to this season There is a lot more to the selection process than just goals scored as I also give each game a rating based on the result goals scored and the position of the team in the league. The ratings are based on the ELO ratings provide by PL

screen shot below

Have you considered using median rather than average when calculating goals over/under this I believe give another angle and removes those freak scores.

Regards

Ken

[footysystems]

@keef75 coming along great guns all we need is data now current season data is crucial here using pervious data is suicidal as Manchester United would vouch for on Sunday. 

 

Personally all my bets are inplay these days I don't bother pre match but using the data you are supplying could help me use inplay as well as my data I use from my site 

 

Keep up the good work and effort pays off for them who put the effort in 

[Rivilearner]

Another variation to my under/over strategy is average goal scored and received by the home team and goal scored and received away team divided by 2. If it's above 2.5 is most likely over 2goals.

Basically my first strategy generates more BTTS. 

Edited August 21, 2018 by Rivilearner