Tennis Tips - June 25 - July 1

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

Wawrinka - Murray as a first round match .

[CzechPunter]

Gilles Muller to beat John Millman at 1.57 with Bet365

Muller looked good last week, unlucky to have met Cilic so early. He's much better on grass than Millman will ever be and he needs to get some points somewhere. This looks like a good chance.

[liquidglass]

19 hours ago, losingpunter said:

Will be a classic. Murray should win in straight sets

Straight sets taking into account his rustiness and his soft outright price of 8/13 has to be just wishful thinking.

[four-leaf]

Matteo Berrettini to beat (-1.5 sets) David Ferrer at 2.87 with bet365

Come on, David is finished, grass is not a surface he does well on nowadays and he hasn't played a grassmatch yet this season. Honesly I'll be surprised if Matteo doesn't win this in straight sets. Tune up events and David Ferrer doesn't matchup well these days except in Auckland this season where David won some matches. Matteo is a nextgen player on the rise and played well in RG and already has two qualifying matches in Eastbourne under his belt. I expect an easy italian win here.

[CzechPunter]

Katerina Bondarenko (+1.5 sets) to beat Petra Kvitova at 3.15 with Pinnacle

At 3.15, I'm going to chance this one, but I most certainly wouldn't go below 2.75. With Kvitova playing in the Birmingham finals on Sunday and with the Grand Slam approaching really fast, it's hard to believe that she's going to give it her all this week, it wouldn't even make much sense honestly. The gap between her and Bondarenko is huge, so a 6-2 6-2 result is certainly possible, but it's the odds that dictate the play here - and it obviously doesn't hurt that Bondarenko has already won three matches in Eastbourne. The outright win is playable as well.

[JusticePunting]

2 hours ago, hzertin said:

you don't take these folk seriously do ya?...I enjoy reading their crazy conclusions then watch them get done lol...….they as a collective only get around 20% correct.....that is 1 every 5 lol......hardly a winning strategy.....take for instance four-leaf above......berrettini is getting schooled bigtime by an aged warrior and the 6 foot 4 boy can't even serve lol......

Brilliant that you thought you had to point out that 20% is 1 in 5. Also this would go down better if you ever contributed anything positive to these threads, instead you seem to hang around like a bad smell revelling in other people's misery.  

Losingpunter called Murray exactly correct, I was also on this line. Made a lot of sense given Murray's comeback versus Kyrgios who was playing very well himself. Kyrgios is tough to beat on grass having only lost to Federer and Cilic this season. Also Wawrinka was hardly in great shape himself and 0-2 against Murray on grass. 

[Sir Puntalot]

@hzertin banned for being bad sperm that should never have left the building.

[CzechPunter]

@losingpunter It's a situational bet, not one on Bondarenko being better than Kvitova. Losing early this week would actually improve her Wimbledon chances imo, playing four weeks in a row would be unreal.

Not sure how many tips I'm going to go for this week, maybe some big odds. I'm certainly not keen on throwing any profits away with the big one just around the corner.

[JusticePunting]

I've got a few bets from round 2 of Wimbledon qualifying tomorrow. Will give them a go and fingers crossed.  

Hubert Hurkacz @ 2.37 with William Hill (vs. Opelka)

Hurkacz has had two good matches on grass this year, beating De Schepper in the first round and a decent effort prior to Wimbledon against Majchrzak. He's at a record high rank and off the high of winning Poznan, a clay tournament, and coming through the French Open decently eventually falling to Cilic. He's clearly playing some of the best tennis of his life.

The other thing to note is that Opelka beat an opponent with a 1-7 grass record (all-time) in three sets in round 1. Also he prioritised clay in recent months and has had no build-up grass events. Based on the above I really think Hurkacz should start this as favourite with the bookies. 

Dennis Novak @ 1.98 with Marathon (vs. Young)

Young is in truly awful form in the last 12 months (and 2-8 W-L in last 10). Novak had an impressive R1 victory in a match I was expecting him to lose. I think these are good odds given Novak's decent record on grass so far and his improving ranking. Novak has taken a set off every opponent he's faced on grass to date plus has a decent record against left handers (12-7 overall).

Note: Young has had some good grass victories a number of years ago so that's a word of caution however think these odds are fully justified, would give Novak a 55-60% chance of winning based on respective forms. 

Kamil Majchrzak +3 Games @ 1.99 with Marathon (vs. Kokkinakis)

Majchrzak has a chance here to win the thing but I like his chances of covering the game handicap.

Kokkinakis really has been struggling with some losses as favourite recently. We all know he has talent but Majchrzak should be odds on favourite to cover handicap as there could be a couple of tie-breaks in this match. I'm not reading too much into the first round qualifying matches but Majchrzak won 6-2 6-0 (against a player who had never played on grass) whereas Kokkinakis had a tight three setter. 

 

Edited June 25, 2018 by JusticePunting

[KennyDelight]

Kanepi 1st set v Ostapenko @ 2.00 Bet365

Even on her best day Ostapenko's serving can be unreliable at times and given this is her first outing on grass this year I expect her to take time to settle into the match and Kanepi is a solid enough player and can destroy Ostapenko's typical weak flat second service when available like she did to Nara's second serves yesterday

[ElPrincipito007]

Kuznetsova @2,65 (Pinnacle)

Mertens isn't playing well on grass. On the other hand you have Kuznetsova who has the experience and has decent results on grass. Odds are really too high here for Svetlana I think. This is a bet against Mertens who I don't trust at this surface.

[yogg]

Collins D. R. - Suarez Navarro C.

a great chance for Suarez Navarro to kick start some grass form against Collins who's serve was rubbish against wild card Katie Swan who'm she just managed to scrape past.

Lajovic D. - Basilashvili N.

I must confess Lajovic is my favourite ATP player right now (Kyle a close second) capable, imo, of beating anyone right now. I was pleased he decided to take a months rest and thought he might struggle a bit against Horansky. No need to worry as he cruised thru'. Should win this.

Lajovic and Suarez Navarro Double @ 2.65 with Betfair

[JusticePunting]

2 hours ago, ElPrincipito007 said:

Kuznetsova @2,65 (Pinnacle)

Mertens isn't playing well on grass. On the other hand you have Kuznetsova who has the experience and has decent results on grass. Odds are really too high here for Svetlana I think. This is a bet against Mertens who I don't trust at this surface.

Think this is a great call, expect Mertens to struggle at points and really make this a tight match rather than one player (Mertens) having a great advantage over the other. 

4 minutes ago, yogg said:

Collins D. R. - Suarez Navarro C.

a great chance for Suarez Navarro to kick start some grass form against Collins who's serve was rubbish against wild card Katie Swan who'm she just managed to scrape past.

Lajovic D. - Basilashvili N.

I must confess Lajovic is my favourite ATP player right now (Kyle a close second) capable, imo, of beating anyone right now. I was pleased he decided to take a months rest and thought he might struggle a bit against Horansky. No need to worry as he cruised thru'. Should win this.

Lajovic and Suarez Navarro Double @ 2.65 with Betfair

I was looking at Lajovic vs. Basilashvili and couldn't decide whether it was value or not. Basilashvili leads H2H 2-0 and has been playing some warm-up tournaments on grass. His losses have come against Sugita, Kudla and Coric who are all in decentish form and pretty good on grass, and netted some sensible wins too. I do think Lajovic is the rightful favourite in this match however! 

Factors in favour are generally that Lajovic has been operating at a high level in last 6 months, plus he had a really decent (but short) grass season last year beating Chardy and Tsitsipas, and running Isner very close. Finally he went out to Fed which we can forgive him for!

[ElPrincipito007]

Lajovic was my second call today, so I agree with yogg

 

GL

[yogg]

2 hours ago, ElPrincipito007 said:

Kuznetsova @2,65 (Pinnacle)

Mertens isn't playing well on grass. On the other hand you have Kuznetsova who has the experience and has decent results on grass. Odds are really too high here for Svetlana I think. This is a bet against Mertens who I don't trust at this surface.

i think you may have found a gem here 

[yogg]

10 minutes ago, JusticePunting said:

Think this is a great call, expect Mertens to struggle at points and really make this a tight match rather than one player (Mertens) having a great advantage over the other. 

I was looking at Lajovic vs. Basilashvili and couldn't decide whether it was value or not. Basilashvili leads H2H 2-0 and has been playing some warm-up tournaments on grass. His losses have come against Sugita, Kudla and Coric who are all in decentish form and pretty good on grass, and netted some sensible wins too. I do think Lajovic is the rightful favourite in this match however! 

Factors in favour are generally that Lajovic has been operating at a high level in last 6 months, plus he had a really decent (but short) grass season last year beating Chardy and Tsitsipas, and running Isner very close. Finally he went out to Fed which we can forgive him for!

this won't be a walk in the park for all the reasons you rightly point out and backing one's favourite player is never a good thing either so caution advised. 

[CzechPunter]

Yeah, let's hope for a good underdog day in Eastbourne, I certainly wouldn't mind seeing Bondarenko/Kuznetsova/Vekic win .

[four-leaf]

Christian Harrison to beat Dennis Novikov at 2.20 with bet365

Pick of the day for me from Roehampton. Christian is cruising nowadays and finally showing the talent at his disposal and he will likely have a good shot at winning this. Dennis who is not at any greater form has only won 3 matches since he won Morelos challenger at the end of february. Christian has also beaten Dennis before not to long ago this season in straight sets in Indian wells challenger just the week after he won in Morelos. Perhaps that would be because of fatigue/lack of fitness being unable to cope with 2 weeks of tennis but after that he lost the next three matches he played even against Gastao Elias on hardcourt. And none of the players he beat in Morelos were ranked top 200. He's played 3 matches on grass before SW19 qualies in Roehampton and lost all of them even against out of form Lukas Lacko. I don't think Dennis has the level of tennis currently to beat Christian who is on his way to something greater then top 200. Christian to win this feels like an easy pick and should be so this price on Christian is likely a gift.

[four-leaf]

Johanna Larsson to beat Tatjana Maria at 2.10 with bet365

Tatjana just won her first title in Mallorca but I'm willing to go against her anyway here. Johanna has a good 3-0 record against Tatjana having beaten her on hardcourt 2 times. On clay last season, before that on hard in Indian wells 2016 in straight sets. Johanna lost to Caro Garcia in Mallorca but qualified before that and beat Sorana Cirstea in first round where she came from behind to win. Losing to no.6 Caro Garcia is no shame. Just before RG Johanna won a title and got to the doubles finals in the same tournament and after that with short time to rest she was clearly tired when she lost to Bethanie Mattek-Sands in RG first round. Grass is not a surface Johanna usually does well on but I'll give her a decent chance at winning this anyway. Johanna can give it a shot to go for having beaten Tatjana on every surface to stamp her authority in that little rivalry.

[four-leaf]

Ruben Bemelmans (-1.5 sets) to beat Enrique Lopez-Perez at 1.83 with bet365

A severly cut short price on this one but I still think it's worth taking. Ruben likes to play at SW19 having reached to main draw last season and beating Daniil Medvedev and losing to Kevin Anderson. He got his qualie campaign off to a fine start yesterday by beating a pretty good server in Christopher Eubanks. He's a reasonable favourite to win this one as he faced few problems in round 1. Chris Eubanks has very limited experience playing on grass so it's one of the reasons Ruben won so easily but after winning that one he should be able to win next one. I don't know mutch about Enrique L-P but he didn't drop serve at all to Miomir Kecmanovic so Ruben might face some problems in breaking down the spaniards serve but I still expect Ruben to win this in straight sets.

[four-leaf]

2 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Christian Harrison to beat Dennis Novikov at 2.20 with bet365

Pick of the day for me from Roehampton. Christian is cruising nowadays and finally showing the talent at his disposal and he will likely have a good shot at winning this. Dennis who is not at any greater form has only won 3 matches since he won Morelos challenger at the end of february. Christian has also beaten Dennis before not to long ago this season in straight sets in Indian wells challenger just the week after he won in Morelos. Perhaps that would be because of fatigue/lack of fitness being unable to cope with 2 weeks of tennis but after that he lost the next three matches he played even against Gastao Elias on hardcourt. And none of the players he beat in Morelos were ranked top 200. He's played 3 matches on grass before SW19 qualies in Roehampton and lost all of them even against out of form Lukas Lacko. I don't think Dennis has the level of tennis currently to beat Christian who is on his way to something greater then top 200. Christian to win this feels like an easy pick and should be so this price on Christian is likely a gift.

Gonna have another play on this one. Christian Harrison -1.5 sets at 3.00 with bet365.

[four-leaf]

1 hour ago, four-leaf said:

Johanna Larsson to beat Tatjana Maria at 2.10 with bet365

 

Cancelled, Tatja withdrew from the tournament, I'm not surprised.

[four-leaf]

Just now, losingpunter said:

looks like czech you are spot on the bondarenko call

How can he be spot on when it's just 4 games played? I'll wait and see what happens.

[ElPrincipito007]

Well, that match from Mertens didn't go well

[CzechPunter]

Bondarenko should've won the first after getting to deuce at 5-5, now I don't see it happening unfortunately.

[CzechPunter]

A glimpse of hope at *3-1, but I really don't want to know what happened in Bondarenko's mind after that .

[four-leaf]

Marta Kostyuk to beat Lauren Davis at 1.80 with bet365

I'm giving Marta a good chance of qualifying for SW19. Her junior record in Roehampton reads semifinal at NIke Junior international last season and it often comes as no surprise that a player that's gone far in Nike Junior international goes far in the Roehampton SW19 qualifiers. Especially the season after. Anastasia Potapova is one example who won Nike junior international 2016 qualified for SW19 in 2017. Marta qualified and got somewhere in Aussie open this season after she won the junior tournament at the same event in 2017. I believe in Marta here over this out of form american.

[JusticePunting]

20 hours ago, JusticePunting said:

Hubert Hurkacz @ 2.37 with William Hill (vs. Opelka) - WON

 

Dennis Novak @ 1.98 with Marathon (vs. Young) - WON

 

Kamil Majchrzak +3 Games @ 1.99 with Marathon (vs. Kokkinakis) - LOSS

 

Two wins and a loss - I'll take that even though I'm disappointed over how slowly Majchrzak started the match. By the end of the second set he was taking Kokkinakis to deuce on return regularly. 

Well done to others who made good calls!

Edited June 26, 2018 by JusticePunting

[four-leaf]

Jelena Ostapenko to (-1.5 sets) to beat Mihaela Buzarnescu at 3.00 with bet365

It's always a risk you can get swept off the court when facing big hitting players like Serena Williams, Jelena Ostapenko, Petra Kvitova, Naomi Osaka or Ash Barty. Two of those have already swept Mihaela off the court and Serena and Ash Barty could do the same if they would face Mihaela and I think Jelena will do so tomorrow. The problem is Mihaelas lack of power that sooner or later makes her forced to commit errors. Mihaela is not good at taking control against big hitters on grass, the quickest of surfaces since her game suits better on clay or hardcourt. She can easily get under too mutch pressure that eventually leads to her demise. She's doing well no question about that but I just think this match can be to hot to handle for her just as it was when she faced Naomi Osaka. I just don't understand why Jelena is at 1.90 when Naomi Osaka was 1.40 to beat her. Jelena as a player was similar to Naomi and Petra last time I checked. Why has Mihaela managed to beat Elina Svitolina twice? Because Elina doesn't have the power required to hit through Mihaela consistently and when she lacks precision it doesn't work out well for her. Jelena has the power and the precision to hit through Mihaela and she breezed through her opener and could do the same here. Also I think Mihaela could be tired or a bit fatigued after reaching semis in Birmingham and needs to rest ahead of next week so no reason for her to go out and play her heart out tomorrow.

Edit: Mihaela beat Jelena 6-1 6-3 in Doha this season but there's every chance that it could be the opposite outcome this time.

Edited June 26, 2018 by four-leaf