Tennis Tips - June 25 - July 1

[CzechPunter]

Good luck with the bet @four-leaf, but I'd like to point out that there is actually a reason for Buzarnescu to go out and play her heart out tomorrow, as there were a lot of emotions after the match in Doha, with Mihaela mocking Ostapenko a bit. Both players should be really pumped up for this one, but the surface should help Ostapenko slightly I guess.

[four-leaf]

3 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Good luck with the bet @four-leaf, but I'd like to point out that there is actually a reason for Buzarnescu to go out and play her heart out tomorrow, as there were a lot of emotions after the match in Doha, with Mihaela mocking Ostapenko a bit. Both players should be really pumped up for this one, but the surface should help Ostapenko slightly I guess.

Even more reason for Jelena to go out and play better this time. Mihaela played 2 three set matches in Bigmingham and had enough left in the tank to beat Elina Svitolina in 2 and she stopped in the semi when Petra the champion was at the other side of the net. Now she's been on court for 282 minutes since monday and I would be impressed if she has enough left in the tank to win in 3 sets again tomorrow which is what may be required unless she beats Jelena in 2 again which I doubt she will.

[JusticePunting]

Damir Dzumhur @ 1.96 with Marathon (vs. Copil)

I like this one - Dzumhur has few matches on grass however has actually had some decent wins historically (Kudla and Istomin who were both better than Copil). Also worth pointing out that Dzumhur has generally been in good form and is at a career high ranking of 29. 

It's good news that he's playing another warm-up match on grass, he pushed Dimitrov very close at Queens and he'll take heart from this. Copil has had a win against Sugita this grass season however losses against Millman, in particular, cast doubt over his form against someone inside the top 30. Willing to give this a go!

[four-leaf]

Guillermo Garcia-Lopez to beat Robin Haase at 2.20 with bet365

No reason to have GG-Lopez as underdog here, he performs well nowadays again and has a better grass court record than Robin historically with 26 wins and 29 losses. He reached the Eastbourne final 8 years ago beating some good players along the way and no shame in losing to fast court specialist Michael Llodra in that final. He's beaten Robin 5 years ago in 3 sets in Auckland and this is again a very winable match-up for him.

[JusticePunting]

1 hour ago, four-leaf said:

Guillermo Garcia-Lopez to beat Robin Haase at 2.20 with bet365

No reason to have GG-Lopez as underdog here, he performs well nowadays again and has a better grass court record than Robin historically with 26 wins and 29 losses. He reached the Eastbourne final 8 years ago beating some good players along the way and no shame in losing to fast court specialist Michael Llodra in that final. He's beaten Robin 5 years ago in 3 sets in Auckland and this is again a very winable match-up for him.

Brilliant - I was going to post this tip just now!

Needless to say, I’m on this one. I thought Haase was pretty poor against Youzhny although 17/18 aces saved him. Garcia-Lopez is actually okay on grass and should have the advantage in rallies so I give him 50-55% chance of winning this.

[four-leaf]

5 hours ago, JusticePunting said:

Brilliant - I was going to post this tip just now!

Needless to say, I’m on this one. I thought Haase was pretty poor against Youzhny although 17/18 aces saved him. Garcia-Lopez is actually okay on grass and should have the advantage in rallies so I give him 50-55% chance of winning this.

I was gonna post Damir to beat Marius also but you beat me to that so I only posted GG-L to beat RH.

[JusticePunting]

Matthias Bachinger @ 2.1 with PaddyPower (vs. Novak)

Bachinger is on a bit of a golden run, beating Evans, Polmans, Istomin and Pospisil this grass season. Really should be stronger favourite here in my eyes. Novak did beat Young (which I predicted) but took three sets to do it. Young is in pretty weak form so I don't see that as much of an achievement! Bachinger could do this easily so I see real value in backing him as underdog with Paddy Power which is out of line with the rest of the market anyway. I put Bachinger's chances at around 60%. 

Edited June 27, 2018 by JusticePunting

[JusticePunting]

Agnieszka Radwanska @ 4 with Betvictor (or higher with exchanges) (vs. Kvitova)

Seems like value here, Radwanska won't make it easy for Kvitova and that means that Kvitova may take the opportunity to bow out before Wimbledon so she can go ahead and try to win the whole thing!

 

Let's not forget that Radwanska has been recovering nicely this year, beating Halep in Miami, but also scoring two wins against top 40 players at Eastbourne. Babos (6-3 6-1) and Gavrilova (5-7 7-6 6-0). Kvitova is a whole other level to those two but there were enough warnings in the Bondarenko match that I give Radwanska a really solid chance of scoring an upset here, especially as Kvitova is tired. 

 

In her own words:

"Obviously, I'm a little bit tired, but I got a hit this morning before the match, a warm-up. The whole tournament [in Birmingham] was more relaxed for me from my side. It was great that I hopefully will save some energy for the next weeks. I felt good with the body, so that's important."

[CzechPunter]

Well, the only thing I can say is good luck, not going for any bets myself today!

[CzechPunter]

Kvitova pulls out. FFS.

[JusticePunting]

42 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Kvitova pulls out. FFS.

Thanks for the heads up - it's confirmed on the official Eastbourne website. Shame that it came to this!

EDIT: I do understand trying to protect herself ahead of Wimbledon, however occasionally it's hard not to feel cynical about something like this when Radwanska clearly had the game to challenge and beat Kvitova here. Sometimes players will play and beat those they think they have a great chance against, but then will pull out when they could lose. 

Edited June 27, 2018 by JusticePunting
Update

[CzechPunter]

Yep yep. Should've lost against Bondarenko yesterday and make me happy .

[four-leaf]

2 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Well, the only thing I can say is good luck, not going for any bets myself today!

Why aren't you going for any bets yourself today? You're probably missing out on lots of money to be made. For example Jelena Ostapenko just won easily 2-0.

[JusticePunting]

1 minute ago, four-leaf said:

Why aren't you going for any bets yourself today? You're probably missing out on lots of money to be made. For example Jelena Ostapenko just won easily 2-0.

It was a great call - I was also on this line after considering for a while. I've been on the Buzarnescu hype train recently but really thought this was her time to exit. Her match yesterday was pretty crazy in a bad way (long three setter which was incredibly emotional from reports). Thought your write-up perfectly encapsulated my thoughts too.

[JusticePunting]

5 minutes ago, losingpunter said:

look she was injured. she is not a bad player. maybe she upsets couple of seeded players in wimbeldon

She's an amazing player and agree that she'll be dangerous at Wimbledon!

[JusticePunting]

Garcia-Lopez just went on the attack (with the grass) after losing second set. Perfectly summed up my mood, should have had this wrapped up in straights!

UPDATE: Haase's second serve win % is very low, however he's saved a lot of break points. In set 2 he only won 40% of second serve points but 93% (25/27) of first serves. GGL had three BP opportunities but failed to convert. Third set might depend on Haase's first serve %. Both are playing pretty well to be honest. Match is turning into a crazy one, GGL keeps getting half chances in games but Haase keeps on saving them. I fear we'll see a GGL implosion at some point. 

FINAL UPDATE: no implosion, a pretty smooth 7-2 TB win. Big win there so very happy with that. Well done four-leaf, a big couple of days for you.

Edited June 27, 2018 by JusticePunting

[four-leaf]

Now it's just one bet left for my treble with Jelena Ostapenko -1.5 sets, GG-Lopez and Damir Dzumhur to come in. Very good!

[four-leaf]

1 hour ago, losingpunter said:

look she was injured. she is not a bad player. maybe she upsets couple of seeded players in wimbeldon

She was injured and worn out like a trashdoll which Jelena Ostapenko carried out with the trash. You should have seen it coming.

[four-leaf]

@yogg where are you? I'm hot! 

Edited June 27, 2018 by four-leaf

[yogg]

30 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

@yogg where are you? I'm hot! 

you certainly are four-leaf, well done.

I've had a couple of busy days but enjoyed reading everyone's tips when I could 

I don't understand Murray being the favourite to beat Kyle. Kyrgios easily beat Andy despite what the scoreline says but Kyle would have beat Kyrgios but for the 32 aces against him, incredible. Kyle certainly won't wont to lose this match! If Andy loses nobody would have expected him to win!

Edmund to beat Murray @ 2.60 with BetVictor

What do you reckon guys?

[JusticePunting]

24 minutes ago, yogg said:

you certainly are four-leaf, well done.

I've had a couple of busy days but enjoyed reading everyone's tips when I could 

I don't understand Murray being the favourite to beat Kyle. Kyrgios easily beat Andy despite what the scoreline says but Kyle would have beat Kyrgios but for the 32 aces against him, incredible. Kyle certainly won't wont to lose this match! If Andy loses nobody would have expected him to win!

Edmund to beat Murray @ 2.60 with BetVictor

What do you reckon guys?

I think Kyle is being sold a little short now. I got Murray @ 1.89 on Marathon when odds were first released, and likely to cash out ahead of or during the match. I'd price Kyle @ 2.45 to be honest. Andy has a lot of quality but I see this as a tough match.

In other news, Copil saved so many break points and Dzumhur throwing in a weak game in the first set and losing. I really hope he pulls it together as he has a great chance still! 

[CzechPunter]

@four-leaf Because I didn't like any of the bets. No need to have bets every single day of the year . Glad that you're doing well though!

[yogg]

4 hours ago, yogg said:

you certainly are four-leaf, well done.

I've had a couple of busy days but enjoyed reading everyone's tips when I could 

I don't understand Murray being the favourite to beat Kyle. Kyrgios easily beat Andy despite what the scoreline says but Kyle would have beat Kyrgios but for the 32 aces against him, incredible. Kyle certainly won't wont to lose this match! If Andy loses nobody would have expected him to win!

Edmund to beat Murray @ 2.60 with BetVictor

What do you reckon guys?

[four-leaf]

4 hours ago, yogg said:

you certainly are four-leaf, well done.

I've had a couple of busy days but enjoyed reading everyone's tips when I could 

I don't understand Murray being the favourite to beat Kyle. Kyrgios easily beat Andy despite what the scoreline says but Kyle would have beat Kyrgios but for the 32 aces against him, incredible. Kyle certainly won't wont to lose this match! If Andy loses nobody would have expected him to win!

Edmund to beat Murray @ 2.60 with BetVictor

What do you reckon guys?

I had a thought that Kyle - Andy would be 3 sets defenitely and placed a bet on it but I cashed out long before the match begun and got the full stake back. Should have gone for Kyle but I'm happy with my 12x treble today.

[yogg]

Just now, four-leaf said:

I had a thought that Kyle - Andy would be 3 sets defenitely and placed a bet on it but I cashed out long before the match begun and got the full stake back. Should have gone for Kyle but I'm happy with my 12x treble today.

congrats four-leaf 

[four-leaf]

Just now, yogg said:

congrats four-leaf 

We'll have to get used to Kyle Edmund being the top brittish tennisplayer right now for a long awhile.

[yogg]

11 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

We'll have to get used to Kyle Edmund being the top brittish tennisplayer right now for a long awhile.

Edmund 100/1 to win Wimbledon, Dusan Lajovic 500/1 & I'll be having a few quid e.w (50% payout to reach final) just as a fun bet on my two favourite players.

oh, Murray is as short as 10/1 

[JusticePunting]

Adrian Mannarino @ 1.71 with Marathon (vs. Sousa)

I really don't understand the pricing here. Mannarino surely massive value and favourite. He's a losing finalist here from last year and is actually decentish on grass, whereas Sousa has no pedigree and beat Basic in the last round who is similar. I think fairly decent stakes on this one.

 

Sousa saved 15/18 break point opportunities against Basic and won about 60% on service versus 72% of points by Mannarino against Berankis (who's in reasonably good form in the last few months).

 

Guillermo Garcia-Lopez @ 2.75 with William Hill (vs. Monfils)

Monfils spent a month off after the French and stuttered his way to an unimpressive victory over Kavcic. Only 65% of points on first serve and 31% on second serve. On the other hand GGL was 77% on 1st and 68% on SS (so more than Monfils on his first).

Garcia-Lopez is on good form and I would price him at 2.2-2.3, even if we account for Monfils turning up which he might do. This is especially true given the 4-3 H2H in favour of Monfils - this is not a case of a strong favourite scoring another regular victory. 

I'm even playing GGL in straights @ 4.75 on WH as stats from Monfils today were pretty mediocre. 

EDIT: better odds on Marathon now @ 2.76. 

Edited June 27, 2018 by JusticePunting

[CzechPunter]

27 minutes ago, yogg said:

Edmund 100/1 to win Wimbledon, Dusan Lajovic 500/1 & I'll be having a few quid e.w (50% payout to reach final) just as a fun bet on my two favourite players.

oh, Murray is as short as 10/1 

The odds on Murray are just to lure some casual punters to throw their money away.

[four-leaf]

29 minutes ago, JusticePunting said:

Adrian Mannarino @ 1.71 with Marathon (vs. Sousa)

I really don't understand the pricing here. Mannarino surely massive value and favourite. He's a losing finalist here from last year and is actually decentish on grass, whereas Sousa has no pedigree and beat Basic in the last round who is similar. I think fairly decent stakes on this one.

 

Sousa saved 15/18 break point opportunities against Basic and won about 60% on service versus 72% of points by Mannarino against Berankis (who's in reasonably good form in the last few months).

 

Guillermo Garcia-Lopez @ 2.75 with William Hill (vs. Monfils)

Monfils spent a month off after the French and stuttered his way to an unimpressive victory over Kavcic. Only 65% of points on first serve and 31% on second serve. On the other hand GGL was 77% on 1st and 68% on SS (so more than Monfils on his first).

Garcia-Lopez is on good form and I would price him at 2.2-2.3, even if we account for Monfils turning up which he might do. This is especially true given the 4-3 H2H in favour of Monfils - this is not a case of a strong favourite scoring another regular victory. 

I'm even playing GGL in straights @ 4.75 on WH as stats from Monfils today were pretty mediocre. 

Will be on GG-Lopez as soon as I see some odds on bet365 for that match. And when was the last time Gael was good on grass? Acctually Gael has never been good on grass. GG-Lopez turned in an impressive serving performance against Robin Haase and should continue the same way here. He really needs the points for his ranking otherwise he'll drop many spots later during the season when he late last season was playing good on the challenger tour.