BillyHills Posted November 8, 2019 Author Share Posted November 8, 2019 11 hours ago, The Equaliser said: I ideally I would prefer a 2% risk i.e. a £1000 bank but was threatened with expulsion from the forum if I introduced further capital Thats a lie and wont have you saying that on the forum.! I never threatened to ban you from the forum, i said if you kept massaging your figures, like you was, i would pull the thread in fairness to the other members as it was misleading. You personally were never threatened with 'expulsion' Why do you need a bigger bank anyway???? if You get that low then you need to find something better to do with your money. @The Equaliser Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rolemat Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 1 hour ago, The Equaliser said: Many thanks for your comments. I too dislike the losing runs. I may try to just include my highest rated selections in the future. It will mean fewer doubles and trebles but may be worth it. Good reply to Rolemat by the way 13 hours ago, MCLARKE said: Fair enough, I believe most punters think like you, I suspect it's a lack of understanding of statistics. To quote Nick Mordin, "The very best measure of any system is that when you explain it to an average punter their reaction will be "That's complete rubbish"" I'm happy for people to ignore my method of betting short priced horses each way because it will enable me to continue making a nice steady profit each month. There is no form analysis at all, I just take advantage of bookmaker's odds in certain situations. I can assure you most punters would understand simple arithmetic,statistics have nothing to do with betting odds but if you cannot see that you cannot possibly win thats ok if it makes you happy,only mentioned it as it is responsible gambling week and we have been encouraged to help fellow punters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 2 hours ago, BillyHills said: Thats a lie and wont have you saying that on the forum.! I never threatened to ban you from the forum, i said if you kept massaging your figures, like you was, i would pull the thread in fairness to the other members as it was misleading. You personally were never threatened with 'expulsion' Why do you need a bigger bank anyway???? if You get that low then you need to find something better to do with your money. @The Equaliser I have replied seperately to the above issue. If I have misinterpreted your words about having my thread pulled, I apologise Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 1 hour ago, Rolemat said: I can assure you most punters would understand simple arithmetic,statistics have nothing to do with betting odds but if you cannot see that you cannot possibly win thats ok if it makes you happy,only mentioned it as it is responsible gambling week and we have been encouraged to help fellow punters. I believe Mclarke to be a very responsible betting man. He is honest too. I believe he uses 100's of spreadsheets to come up with his short priced selections and takes advantage of bookmakers promotional odds. As of yesterday he was still top of this month's nap table. Not sure that I would even try to follow his method but, just because I don't understand it fully doesn't mean that I would say it's wrong and; it definitely is not irresponsible gambling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rolemat Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 1 hour ago, The Equaliser said: I believe Mclarke to be a very responsible betting man. He is honest too. I believe he uses 100's of spreadsheets to come up with his short priced selections and takes advantage of bookmakers promotional odds. As of yesterday he was still top of this month's nap table. Not sure that I would even try to follow his method but, just because I don't understand it fully doesn't mean that I would say it's wrong and; it definitely is not irresponsible gambling. I did not mean he was irresponsible,simply pointing out that his betting method i.e ew on short priced horses has been proven to be a long term losing strategy and always will be,as I said,simple arithmetic.hth Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 12 minutes ago, Rolemat said: I did not mean he was irresponsible,simply pointing out that his betting method i.e ew on short priced horses has been proven to be a long term losing strategy and always will be,as I said,simple arithmetic.hth Well Sir, I respecfully ask you to ask MClarke to reveal his cumulative profit/loss figures; he seemed to be doing OK the last time we spoke about them. It is dangerous to assume that a strategy is a failure just because you think it to be so. I get a lot of flack over my strategy because the winning doubles and trebles don't come through that often. However, I have faith in it. Sure, it could all go pear shaped and possibly I will lose my betting bank. There is always a risk to betting. However, the returns can be ten times more favourable than puting money into a savings account if one gets their strategy right. I think that there are a lot of good tipsters in this forum and I respect their selections. I wouldn't put any of them down without finding out a bit more about their strategies before declaring that they simply won't work. I hope this helps? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rolemat Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 1 minute ago, The Equaliser said: Well Sir, I respecfully ask you to ask MClarke to reveal his cumulative profit/loss figures; he seemed to be doing OK the last time we spoke about them. It is dangerous to assume that a strategy is a failure just because you think it to be so. I get a lot of flack over my strategy because the winning doubles and trebles don't come through that often. However, I have faith in it. Sure, it could all go pear shaped and possibly I will lose my betting bank. There is always a risk to betting. However, the returns can be ten times more favourable than puting money into a savings account if one gets their strategy right. I think that there are a lot of good tipsters in this forum and I respect their selections. I wouldn't put any of them down without finding out a bit more about their strategies before declaring that they simply won't work. I hope this helps? I think that when decades of experience and knowledge,personal and from others,both punters and bookies tells you that something is flawed,it generally is? For his strategy to have a hope of providing a profit it would require a high percentage of winners to bets ratio,which if it was the case begs the question about backing short prices ew in the first place.As soon as a horse has only placed,50% of the stake is lost,if the place is 1/4 and the price less than 4/1 a further loss and ditto 5/1 and 1/5,add the unplaced i.e 100% loss and the flaw is obvious.Was only trying to help but each to their own. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rolemat Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 See Racing Chat for reasoning. The Flyingportrait 1.30 Aintree £20 win at 9/1 Lads,best odds gtd (ew if punting cash) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 bank 1678.74 Kelso 1.55 - Clan Legend 8/1 Winc 3.35 - Present man 6/1 prices bet365 bog £10 EW double Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted November 8, 2019 Share Posted November 8, 2019 2 hours ago, Rolemat said: I think that when decades of experience and knowledge,personal and from others,both punters and bookies tells you that something is flawed,it generally is? For his strategy to have a hope of providing a profit it would require a high percentage of winners to bets ratio,which if it was the case begs the question about backing short prices ew in the first place.As soon as a horse has only placed,50% of the stake is lost,if the place is 1/4 and the price less than 4/1 a further loss and ditto 5/1 and 1/5,add the unplaced i.e 100% loss and the flaw is obvious.Was only trying to help but each to their own. Ok, I'll leave MClarke to defend his strategy. Without full cumulative P&L figures it is difficult to to determine whether it is profitable. I guess that because he selects short priced favourites that he does have a greater strike rate than 50%. I appreciate that you were only trying to be helpful ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig bluenose Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Cab somebody just pick some winners on a regular basis? Don't care about the system. Lol.. BillyHills 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 5 doubles,two trebles and 1 win bet today: Doubles and trebles: Selections: A 1.15 Win Enola Gay 3/1 B 1.30 Aint the Last Day 5/2 C 2.40 aint Diomode Des Mottes 2/1 (Price slashed from 3/1 earlier) D 4.10 Win Confirmation Bias 3/1 E 5.10 Sou Requitted 5/2 F 6.40 Sou Poeta Brasileiro 9/4 Doubles: At £3 AB £42.00 BC £31.50 CD £36.00 DE £45.00 EF £36.56 Trebles: at £2.50 (1) CDE £112.50 (2) ABF £113.79 £20 staked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 4 hours ago, Craig bluenose said: Cab somebody just pick some winners on a regular basis? Don't care about the system. Lol.. Take a look at the overall 2019 tipster naps table that was posted up recently, there you will find some tipsters with a good recent strike rate. Hope this helps Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 KELSO 2.30 AIN'T MY FAULT 9/4 £20 WIN BET365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 3 hours ago, MCLARKE said: KELSO 2.30 AIN'T MY FAULT 9/4 £20 WIN BET365 So unlucky with both your bets today. I don't place any bets at venues with heavy going these days; all too unpredictable! But well done in your attempts here and in the naps anyway Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted November 9, 2019 Author Share Posted November 9, 2019 On 11/8/2019 at 9:39 AM, Trotter said: God knows ! probably 'cos I've never bothered asking for it to be changed ....... You can change it yourself by going into Account Settings and change display name, its just like magic although knowing Trotter that may be a bit technical? Or....... I can change it for you **Edit Profile is where you need to go Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 5 hours ago, The Equaliser said: So unlucky with both your bets today. I don't place any bets at venues with heavy going these days; all too unpredictable! But well done in your attempts here and in the naps anyway Thanks, my 3rd bet was Soupy Soups which also came second (at 16/1) and looked like it would win if there were a few extra yards. Just the way it goes sometimes, I'm sure it evens itself out over time so I don't get too despondent, it's good to get a bit of fun for your money. I don't mind heavy going, I tend to back those horses that show they can perform on the going. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 13 hours ago, Craig bluenose said: Cab somebody just pick some winners on a regular basis? Don't care about the system. Lol.. I wish it was that easy ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 3 hours ago, BillyHills said: You can change it yourself by going into Account Settings and change display name, its just like magic although knowing Trotter that may be a bit technical? Or....... I can change it for you Click your name where you log in and select Account Settings Cheers BH ...... I just tried that but it actually changed my User Name not the 'newbie punter' bit ........... So I changed it back ........... go ahead and change it if you can ! I think I should be at least a Legend ......... ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted November 9, 2019 Author Share Posted November 9, 2019 Sorry, my fault. You need to edit profile to change it, i've done it for you Trotter 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 On 11/8/2019 at 9:07 PM, The Equaliser said: Ok, I'll leave MClarke to defend his strategy. Without full cumulative P&L figures it is difficult to to determine whether it is profitable. I guess that because he selects short priced favourites that he does have a greater strike rate than 50%. I appreciate that you were only trying to be helpful ? Thanks for your comments. Since I started betting on my new system in June there have been 435 selections of which 299 (69%) have either won or placed. My profit has been £2,400 to £60 stakes. ROI is 9%. Rolemat states that my system has been proven to be a long term losing strategy. He does not know my system, other than the fact it is based on backing short priced horses each way. I have a spreadsheet which calculates the chance of each horse finishing in the 1st 4 places. This is quite a complex spreadsheet as there are 36,000 scenarios in a 15 runner race. I only back in those races where the bookies are offering 4 places instead of the standard 3 and only then when the shape of the betting and the over-round is in our favour. As an example there were 4 such races today but only 1 that provided a suitable opportunity. Before I retired I was FD for a multi billion pound business and I now make my living by investing in shares. By my nature I am cautious and prudent so I certainly wouldn't "throw my money down the drain". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted November 9, 2019 Author Share Posted November 9, 2019 Can we get back to betting guys, we are losing the flow of the thread Good luck in which ever way you bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 bank 1658.74 Ffos 2.35 - Hideaway Vic 2/1 and Saint de Vassy 2/1 Ffos 3.05 - Pobbles Bay 15/8 and Shairo 3/1 prices bet365 bog 4 x £5 doubles Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 On 11/9/2019 at 8:13 AM, Craig bluenose said: Cab somebody just pick some winners on a regular basis? Don't care about the system. Lol.. I thought I reacted to this previously but must have been mistaken. What I wanted to say was that a study of the month on month nap tipsters as shown in the November update under Admin reveals a lot of tipsters who have produced good strike rates which I believe you are seeking. You may do well to study these and chose from a few to follow. Personally, I never follow any tipsters, however, their usefulness for me is that they sometimes highlight a selection that is worth a second look. If that horse then fits in with my own criteria only then would I consider backing it. Hope this helps Craig bluenose 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 No Doubles and trebles today; not enough qualifying races Single win Bets: (1) 12.55 Ffos Las Steel Native £20 win at 8 with Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NottsRuss Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 First effort as a newbie to PL: £20 treble 14.10 Navan - A Plus Tard 14.25 Sandown - Sanitini 15.15 Navan - Melon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted November 10, 2019 Author Share Posted November 10, 2019 29 minutes ago, NottsRuss said: First effort as a newbie to PL: £20 treble 14.10 Navan - A Plus Tard 14.25 Sandown - Sanitini 15.15 Navan - Melon Welcome to PL @NottsRuss GOOD LUCK Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 NAVAN 2.45 QUAMINO 11/2 £10 EW BET VICTOR 5 PLACES Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 2 hours ago, NottsRuss said: First effort as a newbie to PL: £20 treble 14.10 Navan - A Plus Tard 14.25 Sandown - Sanitini 15.15 Navan - Melon Good luck NottsRuss ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NottsRuss Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Thanks guys, Hopefully Melon is effective over fences Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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