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Rolemat

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Rolemat last won the day on November 7

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  1. You say "If" Valiant but there are no ifs or buts in basic facts,backing 5/2 shots ew will always produce a loss if the horse only places and that is without counting those which do not place.Seems to be confusion (no idea why) as to what constitutes a loss on an ew,it is no different to any other bet in that if you get back less than the total stake it is a LOSS. i.e £10 ew @ 5/2 =£20 out,a place at 1/5 gives a return of £15 and = £5 loss and applies to every bet under the break even price so it is not minimising loss it is guaranteeing it contrary to some opinions.
  2. Torrid 1pm Sedgefield £20 win 13/2 bog
  3. A fascinating entry for an American flat bred former K.Abdulla horse caught my eye for tomorrow.Trained by one of the "shrewdest" and oldest trainers in the world he has never jumped a fence in public and is still a maiden over timber (the horse that is),he goes straight into a handicap. Torrid runs in the 1pm at Sedgefield and if he can put in a clear round could well win this.13/2 general.
  4. At the behest of a poster on the £20 daily challenge I hope the majority will understand the logic and hard fact I have been trying to get through on that thread.Simply that an ew is two separate bets and should be treated as such.That punters are guaranteeing a loss on the place part if the odds are less than 4/1 @ 1/4 and 5/1 @ 1/5,it is a mathematical certainty and no other outcome is possible. They have argued that the place minimises loss which of course it does not unless the odds are higher than above,to keep it to the most common odds 9/2 for 1/4 which gives .12p per £1 invested in the place and .10p per £1 for 11/2 and 1/5. This must seem obvious to most punters but it seems to escape some that even if a horse wins they will lose on the place part of the bet unless the odds are higher than I stated in the first sentence.To actually minimise loss as they state the odds have to be exactly 4/1 or 5/1 at 1/4 or 1/5 which simply breaks even.It has been argued that an average SP of 6/4 will give a profit on the place part over a period of time which of course is impossible. I do advocate ew betting but there has to be very sound reasoning and the price has to be at least break even if a bet fails to win otherwise it is pointless,you are simply giving the bookies your money by doing otherwise before the horse has even run.Long term much better to double the stake of the win part if betting on short priced horses or sticking to the win half and keeping the place half in your pocket.The only alternative is to work out a percentage to return a profit whether your horse places or wins e.g 80% on the place 20% on the win. Hope I haven't insulted your intelligence or seem to be teaching you to suck eggs but there does seem to be an alarming misunderstanding of EW lining the pockets of the bookies.
  5. Ok for a final time,at the odds and fractions quoted you are not minimising loss,you are guaranteeing it EVERY time,that is indisputable FACT.To make a profit on the place part the odds have to be greater than 4/1 @ 1/4 and 5/1 @ 1/5.................again that is FACT,there is no other outcome possible.HTH and if not I apologise for trying.
  6. It is hardly a debate,it is simple arithmetic that any bet under 4.1 @ 1/4 or 5.1 @ 1/5 is a loss or break even at best.HTH
  7. Rath An Luir 1.40 Ayr £20 win @ 13/2 bog Probably an ew bet if backing due to a slight question regarding fitness on seasonal/stable/hurdle debut but ground expected to be in his favour.
  8. I have been given the nod for one tomorrow with a cautionary word in terms of fitness.Told the horse will come on for the run but hoped to be fit enough to figure in a race where the heavy ground is expected to be more favourable for him than others.It will be his first run for the stable who have been very patient,also his first run over timber but said to have schooled exceptionaly Rath An Luir 1.40 Ayr with 13/2 available with best odds gtd,probably an ew bet with the cautionary advice regarding fitness.
  9. Sorry to keep on about the place element of MCs bets but to make it absolutely simple to understand the following example shows that backing ew at an average of 6/4 is throwing money away. 100 bets at £10 ew and they all WIN still means a net loss on the place bets of £700 or £625,I really do not understand how anyone could convince themselves that this makes any sense or view the loss as a small percentage,it is massive and pointless and to me incomprehensible.I hope this is helpful rather than critical.
  10. Keep a close eye on Get Back Get Back in the 1.40 at Hunt,reported to have schooled very well and an improved run expected off a feather weight given the race is not run at a dawdle. 11/1 with PP,4 places 1/5 odds.
  11. A competitive handicap hurdle at Huntingdon might not seem the race to go for in an attempt to secure a profit but in the 1.40 Get Back Get Back sneaks in at the foot of the handicap.Having been rated so far on only two runs over timber his jumping has been an issue,he has masses of improvement to come and I know he seen as a 135+ horse when it all clicks,has schooled well since last time out and a fast run race could be key to a bigger run than the form book suggests. £20 win.
  12. Again I hate to point out the obvious in an effort to help,you cannot make a profit on a placed horse if the place odds are 1/4 and the odds less than 4.1/1 and ditto 1/5 and 5.1/1 no matter how many places,the only way would be backing the horse place only.Unless you are meaning the place odds are evens which even if the case means only breaking even? Maybe I am missing something or reading wrong and will be happy to be corrected as I will have learned something. Best of luck in any case.
  13. Somewhat of a rarity here,I have received some advice in relation to the 7.40 race at Southwell,a track I have no experience of for many years.That ties in with the horse I have been advised to have a bet on Bo Samraan who has even less experience and having a first run on the surface.The advice says have a go as the surface should not prove a problem as he works well on an artificial surface at home and likes a bit of give on turf which this resembles. The advice says that he will be kept out of any kickback which I assume means he will either be kept wide or at the front,maybe both.The distance is not an issue and been told he would destroy the favourite on any other surface and the surface is the sole reason he is as big as 5/2 still.Based purely on this I have passed it on here as possibly worth an interest.
  14. See Racing Chat for reasoning. The Flyingportrait 1.30 Aintree £20 win at 9/1 Lads,best odds gtd (ew if punting cash)