End of December - January 7

[CzechPunter]

[WinningTipster]

1 PICK FOR ATP CHENNAI INDIA:

BHAMBRI-4.5 GAMES OVER KADHE @ 1.43 pinnacle
First week of the 2018. A lot of players with motivation problems but playing at home Bhambri should be OK. Playing a local wild card who has no results on the ATP tour level.
 

[four-leaf]

4 hours ago, WinningTipster said:

1 PICK FOR ATP CHENNAI INDIA:

BHAMBRI-4.5 GAMES OVER KADHE @ 1.43 pinnacle
First week of the 2018. A lot of players with motivation problems but playing at home Bhambri should be OK. Playing a local wild card who has no results on the ATP tour level.
 

It's in Pune now, not Chennai.

[four-leaf]

2 picks from ATP Brisbane

Leonardo Mayer to beat Ryan Harrison at 2.20 with bet365

Kicking of the new season with my first bet being this. Leo has beaten Ryan at two occasions already on clay in 3 sets and Ryans return is not the best while he lacks in stability sometimes on his ground strokes. Leo will make it very hard for Ryan again because even if this is on hard it's always difficult to beat someone you've had problems with before. Forwise it's nothing speaking in either players favor if we go back to end of last season. Leo could be a good start on 2017 so I'll see where he takes me.

Matthew Ebden to beat Frances Tiafoe at 2.50 with bet365

And why wait for my second bet. Might as well take this on. No reason to have Matt as a 2.50 underdog imo. But the bookie must think Frances is more talented and therefore should be the rightful favourite because in the ranking it's only 3 spots between them. Matt had a good 2017 while I don't think Frances did and he lost a match like this in Brisbane last year being 1.50 fav in the qualies (lost to Alex de Minaur in 3). This could be a coinflip match and then I'm happy to be on the aussie underdog who will be motivated to do well in Brisbane while Frances has no points to defend and might therefore not be as motivated.

Happy new year!

[CzechPunter]

Well, Happy New Year everyone!

Jan-Lennard Struff (+1.5 sets) to beat Tomas Berdych at 1.80 with Unibet

Berdych is apparently still dreaming of winning a Grand Slam, but, if anything, I think that he's probably going to slide down even further in this season. Off-season matches aren't incredibly important, but he lost against Satral and had plenty of problems against Berankis, so I don't believe that he's going to do incredibly well in Doha. Struff is rising, on the other hand, and he did manage to take a set off Berdych last time out, so he could do the same here with a bit of luck.

Jana Fett (-3.5) to beat Sofia Kenin at 1.77 with 10Bet

Fett has made it through the qualifiers in style, while Kenin is yet to play in the new season. On top of that, she's not even the better player of the two - and she lost when the two met last year. Fett should win - and chances are that it won't even be that close.

[four-leaf]

Challenger Noumea/Playford

Brayden Schnur to beat Yoshihito Nishioka at 2.75 with bet365

I doubt Yoshi will come strong here so fast after a long injury break. He'll have problems with timing on the groundstrokes but I'm sure he's motivated to come back strong but I'll take my chances that it won't happen in the first match.

Christian Harrison to beat Stephane Robert at 2.50 with bet365

I like the younger Harrison but he's not at his older brothers level and question is if he'll ever be but he might have just about enough to beat an aging frenchman.

ATP Brisbane

Ryan Harrison to beat Andy Murray at 2.68 with Pinnaclesports

So Andy is in Brisbane to test his hip and not to win his first match. As simple as that. You need to be fully fit to beat a player like Ryan. Andy didn't look fully fit in Abu Dhabi and that should show here. Ryan would be higher priced if Andy had been fit enough to win. Going with Pinnacle in case of a Andy retirement after first set since Pinnacle doesn't void bets after one set is played.

Edited January 1, 2018 by four-leaf

[CzechPunter]

Murray has now withdrawn by the looks of things. Fett failed to break in the second game (3BBs) and fell apart, let's see if Struff can deliver. He's got the skills and Berdych is beatable, only worried about his head really. Not yet sure what to go for tomorrow, lots of temptations, but I always seem to do poorly before the Australian Open for some reason, so I don't want to repeat past mistakes.

[CzechPunter]

Okay, let's go for one value pick.

Vincent Millot to beat Cameron Norrie at 3.25 with Unibet

I had a hunch about Norrie losing yesterday, but I didn't go for it in the end - and, well, it seems that I did indeed dodge a cruel bullet there, as Norrie saved X match points against Napolitano. Millot isn't weaker than the Italian and he certainly has enough to win this, so I'm willing to take my chances at odds this big. Apart from the previous matches, there are two other factors that are pushing me to the bet. 1) I think that Norrie is incredibly overrated at the moment. 2) Millot has always been a decent underdog to back + he won this tournament in 2011, so he shouldn't have any motivation problems even if he goes a break down or something.

[CzechPunter]

Just for the record - It always makes sense to lay off bets like these at 3.75 (*1-3 Berdych - Struff), which was the price for Berdych to win the 1st set. Not only do you avoid all possible chokes, but you can sometimes get lucky twice (Berdych wins first, Struff wins second) and really net it.

Edit: Some comments on what I've seen so far in this season - Bencic looks really good, Benneteau did something strange against Piros (but it most definitely wasn't intentional), Struff has made a lot of progress in the off-season, Thiem didn't look all that great against Donskoy, Mladenovic and Carreno-Busta are still stuck mental-wise.

[four-leaf]

14 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Murray has now withdrawn by the looks of things. Fett failed to break in the second game (3BBs) and fell apart, let's see if Struff can deliver. He's got the skills and Berdych is beatable, only worried about his head really. Not yet sure what to go for tomorrow, lots of temptations, but I always seem to do poorly before the Australian Open for some reason, so I don't want to repeat past mistakes.

Then I guess I'll have to look for another bet. Didn't know he had withdrawn till I read this...

... but I'm going for Ryan anyway

Ryan Harrison to beat (-1.5 sets) Yannick Hanfmann at 2.00 with bet365

Even if he's a lucky loser now I can't imagine he'll have mutch to show for here so Ryan in 2 should work.

Edit: Just saw the odds are at 2.25 with Paddypower

Problem is that most bookies are most of the times higher then bet365 on setbetting.

Edited January 3, 2018 by four-leaf

[four-leaf]

ATP Brisbane

Alexandr Dolgopolov to beat (-3.5) Horacio Zeballos at 1.80 with bet365

I think Horacio did well by his standards last season but he dropped significantly in form somewhere after US open or right before. Don't remember really where his form went down but his last months in the season was quite bad. He does play best on clay also and coming up against a fit Alexandr on the Brisbane surface will prove very tough for him. I don't think Horacio will have any chance at all here. It's big class difference between them and talentwise Alexandr is way out of his league so Alexandr should cover this in about 7 of 10 times on hard.

[CzechPunter]

So much trust in Ryan! But yeah, he should be able to win that one.

Goncalo Oliveira to beat Aleksandr Nedovyesov at 2.85 with Unibet

I see where the odds are coming from, but I'd say that Oliveira is only slightly worse than Nedovyesov - and only if you count faster courts, because I'd say that he's already slightly better on clay. He got a nice win against Vanni in the previous round and he has the right style that could frustrate Nedovyesov, so I feel that everything over 2.35 or so is worth taking here. Oliveira is young and ambitious, while Nedovyesov has been in decline for a while now. He may win this, but the value lies with the juicier price.

[four-leaf]

14 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

So much trust in Ryan! But yeah, he should be able to win that one.

Goncalo Oliveira to beat Aleksandr Nedovyesov at 2.85 with Unibet

I see where the odds are coming from, but I'd say that Oliveira is only slightly worse than Nedovyesov - and only if you count faster courts, because I'd say that he's already slightly better on clay. He got a nice win against Vanni in the previous round and he has the right style that could frustrate Nedovyesov, so I feel that everything over 2.35 or so is worth taking here. Oliveira is young and ambitious, while Nedovyesov has been in decline for a while now. He may win this, but the value lies with the juicier price.

You're right about Alexsandr being in decline. Goncalo seems worth taking. Gonna try a double with Goncalo and Alexandr Dolgopolov -3.5 games.

Edit: Ok didn't get the time to make a double before the match started so I'll try something else.

Edited January 3, 2018 by four-leaf

[four-leaf]

Horacio Zeballos/Alexandr Dolgpolov under 9.5 games in first set at 2.12 with Unibet

Livebet just before the match starts and this doesn't look like a bad bet. Feels like Alexandr could go out and destroy Horacio so under 9.5 games first set why not...

Edit: Problem is that Zeballos starts to serve!

Edited January 3, 2018 by four-leaf

[four-leaf]

Czech why do you never bet on -1.5 sets? You always chose +1.5 sets.

[four-leaf]

Brayden Schnur to beat Oscar Otte at 2.00 with bet365

Don't see any reason to have the canadian as even a small underdog here. He could win again, Brayden is quite underrated and he hasn't reached his full potential and he had a good last season by his standards as he reached a lot of challenger quarterfinals and seems to have been working well in the off season to just keep going on the same track as in 2017. Oscar is also at his best on clay judging by his results from last season where he reached a lot of challenger clay quarterfinals and even won one and lost a final to Janko Tipsarevic. Brayden does his best on hardcourt as most canadians.

[four-leaf]

ATP Pune

Benoit Paire to beat Marton Fucsovics at 2.20 with Paddypower

Ridiculously enough Benoit is underdog in this match. Can't belive it, better player, bigger talent, better ranked and when the tournament was called ATP Chennai Benoit reached semis three times and quarter once and only lost once in second round to Dudi Sela in 2012 at his first Chennai attempt and that was also before he reached top 50 and became a steady top 50 player. Marton has beaten Nico Kicker in straight sets, a player who just isn't good enough on hardcourts and now he suddenly becomes favourite to win this. Totally ridiculous! Benoit wins this 9 out of 10 times and he also beat Marton 7-5 6-3 in a challenger event last season on clay and I just can't see why he wouldn't be able to win again.

ATP Brisbane

Alex de Minaur to beat Milos Raonic at 4.40 with Unibet

Milos better have his previously injured wrist ready for this because he comes up against a big talent here who is confident after that win against Steve Johnson and maybe because he qualified to aussie open after winning the AO wild card challenge before christmas. Milos can ofcourse win easily if he serves up to his standards but value lies with the aussie 18 year old youngster.

[CzechPunter]

8 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Czech why do you never bet on -1.5 sets? You always chose +1.5 sets.

I sometimes do, but I'm more about underdogs now, so there you go. Nice picks on Dolgopolov, De Minaur, and Schnur, don't know what happened to Millot, I went to bed after his heroic 1st set effort, thinking that he'll make it - and then I wake up to 2-6 0-6! It was a good bet probably though, so not particularly disappointed. Let's hope that Oliveira can do a better job.

[CzechPunter]

Even Paire did it for you, @four-leaf! Amazing! 

[four-leaf]

Good to wake up just in time to see Paire take the third set tie-break.. I went to sleep after Nick Kyrgios had broken Matt Ebden in third set for a 5-2 lead. Now off to new bets 

[WinningTipster]

1 PICK FOR WTA AUCKLAND TOMORROW:

WOZNIACKI-KENIN 2:0 SETS @ 1.39 pinnacle
Two easy wins for Wozniacki already in 2018. Kenin is a very talented young player but Wozniacki is a level or two above her at the moment.

 

[four-leaf]

2 minutes ago, WinningTipster said:

1 PICK FOR WTA AUCKLAND TOMORROW:

WOZNIACKI-KENIN 2:0 SETS @ 1.39 pinnacle
Two easy wins for Wozniacki already in 2018. Kenin is a very talented young player but Wozniacki is a level or two above her at the moment.

 

Caro is certainly a level or two above Sofia atm. Couldn't agree more.

[Senking]

Long time lurker, first time poster.

Struff vs. Monfils - Struff to [email protected] with Betfair Exchange

I watched Struff against Berdych yesterday and he seemed to be playing confidently, striking the ball well and serving and moving well. He had a blip in the 2nd set, but that's expected against a player of Berdych's quality. What impressed me was that he held his nerve to win the 3rd set tie break. His tie break record in 2017 was atrocious, so that speaks well of his mental state. Monfils is on yet another comeback after injury and like he said after his match against Lorenzi, he has to improve on a lot of aspects. I'm not sure he's physically ready yet for this match and form wise too he might need some more game time to get back to his best. I'm banking on Gael using this tournament as tester before the Australian Open and not going too hard.  

 

[Sir Puntalot]

 to PL @Senking  

[CzechPunter]

Yes, welcome and good luck @Senking!

[CzechPunter]

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova to beat Naomi Osaka at 1.66 with Bet365

It's actually not clear whether this is going to take place or not, but, if it does, I'd strongly fancy the Russian. She's been better so far and she also looks 100%fit, which is not something you could say about Osaka. Also, Pavs won 6-3 6-3 when the two met not so long ago, just before the end of the last season. Everything above 1.40 looks fine to me here.

[PrivateTips]

Some bets from me for tonight- thank you guys for doing a great job here!

Noumea challenger

Rubin N.- Moutet C.

Yesterday I was against Moutet but by his performence he convinced me to be definitely on his side tonight. I didn't expect such a good match but he totaly destroyed Liam Caruna 6:4 6:2 and had 90% first serve win and didn't give to opponent even a single chance to break his serve. So looks like his previous not impressed matches was connected just with a young age and problems with concentration. But without doubt Moutet is a future star- he used to be a top junior (reached semi finals of AO/ Wimbledon last year) and currently is 155th in ATP ranking and will surely raise soon. Noah Rubin should be a rival which style exactly fits to Moutet- both are small and thin (around 178 cm high) but on paper Moutet looks much better.

Bangkok 2 challenger

Oliveira G.- Nedovyesov A.

Goncalo Oliveira looks to be in a good shape- he has been playing for all December with quite good results on Asian tournamens so he is well adapted to hard courts these days (althought he definitely prefers clay surface). First round here he had a hard opponent- Luca Vanni but reached a perfect win where he was naturally underdog. Vanni is much better player at least on hard courts than Nedovyesov so I don't understand why bookies sees Nedovyesov as a clear favorit, especially that he played yesterday just first game after 6 weeks, managed to win 6:4 6:4 to Takahasi so not high demanding opponent.

ITF Hong Kong F6

Viola M.- Niki T.

Meeting between 2 'veterans'- both will finish 31 years old soon. Matteo Viola was never a great player on hard courts and I definitely won't set him here as a favorit. On other side Takuto Niki spent all career on hard courts and these days he looked really solid- lost just 3 gems in two matches, maybe opponents were horrible but still it says something. On other side Viola looked to be far away of good shape: he won to number 1210 of ATP Ranking- Saito Takashi 4:6 6:2 6:4 but stats on paper are incredible bad: he served just 1 ace, did 5 double faults- just 60% first serve won/ 30% second and lost own serve 6 times.. Looks like Niki is underrated here.

Bets:

Rubin N.- Moutet C. 2 @1,75 8/10

Oliveira G.- Nedovyesov A. 1 @3,00 7/10

Viola M.- Niki T. 2 @2,55 9/10

 

Edited January 3, 2018 by PrivateTips

[four-leaf]

Kenny de Schepper to beat Cameron Norrie at 2.25 with bet365

Cameron may be a little overrated here. He isn't better than Kenny by any means. Kennys chances are probably more like 65/45 and he got his big serve to get him out of troubles. Cameron doesn't have any big serve and he lost their only meeting so far in 3 sets last season in Nottingham challenger. I think there will be problems for Cameron again.

[CzechPunter]

Pavs cracked and Olivieira failed us all , seems like I'll never get the pre-AO stuff right, year after year for some reason. I'll go for these outrights and prepare for the AO qualifiers and next week.

Kevin Anderson to win ATP Pune at 3.50 with Bet365

Dominic Thiem to win ATP Doha at 3.00 with Bet365

I've seen a bit from both so far in this season and they should be competitive right to the very end, hopefully win it really. The big threats are Cilic and Monfils, but the former tends to be unconvincing at the start of seasons, like myself really, while Monfils is half-injured already yet again. There are some other potential pitfalls, of course, like the surging Tsitsipas, but I saw Thiem against Bedene and I think that he can up his game once or twice once the situation starts to demand it.

[CzechPunter]

Anderson .