King George Boxing day

[Glentoby]

Hello everyone,my first post on here for a long time and first using my original from Betfair and the Racing Post.I hope that those of you who remember me will appreciate that the end game is to help others where possible with opinion and where appropriate passing on information not always available to the general population.My first post concerns the KG which despite only an 8 runner field as it stands at the moment is a connundrum.

However why Bristol De Mai is 7/2 is beyond me despite the Betfair Chase at Haydock.I said weeks ago on the defunct Racecaller Forum that he could not win a KG  unless it was a furlong longer and he was in a horsebox.Of course now with only 8 runners and a couple of no hopers on known form I could be left with egg on my face and a hole in my pocket.

Even so I have not changed my mind about him despite finding it difficult to nail my colours to the mast for the winner.Unless Kempton gets the 20mm of rain forecast by one forecaster then I cannot see BDM beating Might Bite,Thistlecrack,Whisper or Fox Norton despite any question marks regarding all of them,the others should not threaten imo.

So the confident recommendation is to lay BDM for the win and a smaller lay for the place even at this stage as even if they get the full 20mm it will be nothing like Haydock.For the win on todays ground and even if they get the 5mm from the other forecast then Thistlecrack is the value for me despite his seemingly lacklustre performance at Newbury,his work since has been as good as ever.Not sitting on the fence although it might seem so but given so many question marks over the principles,the weather etc I cant go alt in on Thistlecraft.

That said if he was anywhere near last years condition they will not get near him,my confidence is all about laying BDM.Good luck whatever your bets,just fingers crossed my first post as myself pays off for any who take the opinion as valid.

Edited December 24, 2017 by Glentoby
spelling mistakes

[BillyHills]

Welcome to the PL, interesting thoughts

[Trotter]

On initial look my first thought is that Whisper represents good value at 8/1 with the Might Bite at 11/8 Fav

In the RSA Whisper finished a nose behind Might Bite and then 2L behind at Aintree

A nose and 2L is nothing in the chaos of a 3 mile jumps race....... a stutter at one fence can cost you 2 lengths. 

Whisper has also won over these fences whereas Might Bite fell the only time he's run in a chase here at Kempton (to be fair that was at the last fence when he looked all over the winner)

[BillyHills]

I'm on Fox Norton EW although I wish Bryan Cooper wasn't riding him, I just don't rate the guy at all.

Fox Norton EW 7/1 Betfair

[Sir Puntalot]

17 hours ago, Glentoby said:

Hello everyone,my first post on here for a long time and first using my original from Betfair and the Racing Post.I hope that those of you who remember me will appreciate that the end game is to help others where possible with opinion and where appropriate passing on information not always available to the general population.My first post concerns the KG which despite only an 8 runner field as it stands at the moment is a connundrum.

However why Bristol De Mai is 7/2 is beyond me despite the Betfair Chase at Haydock.I said weeks ago on the defunct Racecaller Forum that he could not win a KG  unless it was a furlong longer and he was in a horsebox.Of course now with only 8 runners and a couple of no hopers on known form I could be left with egg on my face and a hole in my pocket.

Even so I have not changed my mind about him despite finding it difficult to nail my colours to the mast for the winner.Unless Kempton gets the 20mm of rain forecast by one forecaster then I cannot see BDM beating Might Bite,Thistlecrack,Whisper or Fox Norton despite any question marks regarding all of them,the others should not threaten imo.

So the confident recommendation is to lay BDM for the win and a smaller lay for the place even at this stage as even if they get the full 20mm it will be nothing like Haydock.For the win on todays ground and even if they get the 5mm from the other forecast then Thistlecrack is the value for me despite his seemingly lacklustre performance at Newbury,his work since has been as good as ever.Not sitting on the fence although it might seem so but given so many question marks over the principles,the weather etc I cant go alt in on Thistlecraft.

That said if he was anywhere near last years condition they will not get near him,my confidence is all about laying BDM.Good luck whatever your bets,just fingers crossed my first post as myself pays off for any who take the opinion as valid.

 to PL @Glentoby - Fantastic first post and good luck.  

[Glentoby]

11 hours ago, Trotter said:

On initial look my first thought is that Whisper represents good value at 8/1 with the Might Bite at 11/8 Fav

In the RSA Whisper finished a nose behind Might Bite and then 2L behind at Aintree

A nose and 2L is nothing in the chaos of a 3 mile jumps race....... a stutter at one fence can cost you 2 lengths. 

Whisper has also won over these fences whereas Might Bite fell the only time he's run in a chase here at Kempton (to be fair that was at the last fence when he looked all over the winner)

Cannot disagree Trotter,you theory is as sound as a £ in terms of these two.Still cannot believe Might Bite came and done me at Cheltenham and Whisper was my bridesmaid again.Nicky might say that Might Bite is over his quirks,but is he? Given the relative prices,again I agree.

However few know what they have better than Nicky so you have to factor in why Might Bite was first choice for the KG and Whisper only considered after his excellent Ladcrook run? The fact Whisper was raised 12lb came as no surprise to me and pretty certain Nicky was having some fun in expressing shock,he knows Whisper is bordering on Grade 1 and will win one sooner rather than later.

It could be Tuesday and he will carry a saver for me,as you say,one mistake can change a race and this KG is likely to be fast and furious with Thistlecrack from the front setting testing fractions.If this is the case and I am led to believe it will be there will be no hiding place and a rythmn will be key and jumping put to the test.

Still a connundrum if Thistlecrack falls apart,who picks up the gauntlet,at the prices Whisper looks better value than Mite Bite even if he has the latent talent to tear them apart.

 

Good luck all and a Happy Christmas

[godofhorses]

20 hours ago, Glentoby said:

Cannot disagree Trotter,you theory is as sound as a £ in terms of these two.Still cannot believe Might Bite came and done me at Cheltenham and Whisper was my bridesmaid again.Nicky might say that Might Bite is over his quirks,but is he? Given the relative prices,again I agree.

However few know what they have better than Nicky so you have to factor in why Might Bite was first choice for the KG and Whisper only considered after his excellent Ladcrook run? The fact Whisper was raised 12lb came as no surprise to me and pretty certain Nicky was having some fun in expressing shock,he knows Whisper is bordering on Grade 1 and will win one sooner rather than later.

It could be Tuesday and he will carry a saver for me,as you say,one mistake can change a race and this KG is likely to be fast and furious with Thistlecrack from the front setting testing fractions.If this is the case and I am led to believe it will be there will be no hiding place and a rythmn will be key and jumping put to the test.

Still a connundrum if Thistlecrack falls apart,who picks up the gauntlet,at the prices Whisper looks better value than Mite Bite even if he has the latent talent to tear them apart.

 

Good luck all and a Happy Christmas

Hi All,

Lets not beat about the bush here!  Might Bite should be a good thing. Whisper shouldn’t have got close to it, now my horse has sorted out it’s jumping it won’t. Thistlecrack, well you can’t touch it with a barge pole. Fox Norton has never been this far. BDM needs rain.

Thus should be a Henderson forecast with Might Bite winning easy.

 

 

[Glentoby]

Glad to see you use the word "should"?? I think more or less what I said,but pace to be set and fences to be jumped.Only 8 runners but only one winner.

"cant touch Thistlecrack with a bargepole" It might come back and bite???

 

Not the same horse you saw at Newbury!!! Nap

Whisper & Thistlecrack Dutched and a rev fcast here.

 

GOOD LUCK ALL!!!

[THRACIAN]

Good luck to everyone.

My bet is on Fox Norton. He's got to prove he can get this trip but travelled like a dream at Aintree at 20f when held out the back, making his move the 2nd fence out. He had them all on a stretch 2 fences out. This trip is not out of the question based on that,solid recent form too, and he has nothing to prove at this level. Its even a tad easier here. Might Blue won the weakest grade ones so far, with just Whisper as solid opposition, and the latter is yet to score at this level. I would not rule out Bristol de Mai completely either. His Wetherby win is solid form and if the ground comes up soft, he's a player, not a horse I would lay. 

[Glentoby]

What do you take from that race for Cheltnham? Other than Bristol De Mai will NEVER win a Gold Cup unless the ground was a bog.His trainer post race "No idea etc" Most could tell imo that the horse A.did not have the talent or speed for the KG B.Is a plodder that does not cut it at the top table.

The winner had a ton in hand and could have gone around again despite the diminishing margin at the finish.Only one horse to take out of the race with Gold Cup aspirations imvho,the 4th was the one for Chelt GC 16/1 and bits...........ew bet to no worries if he gets there.

Might Bite will falter before the 2nd last in the GC and flatter to deceive approaching the last,Thistlecack on the other hand will be on the bridle and bound up the hill.

Only opinion,maybe fantasy............but give me another at 16s you think can do it?

[Trotter]

Anyone watching on RUK today ?

Blimey, what a cock up..............

They were covering the 3.00 at Huntingdon, a 3 mile chase, which inevitably went on past 3.05 as it was bound to ..... so what did they do ?

They carried on with the Huntingdon commentary and missed the first half mile of the King George !

....... and which idiot scheduled a 3 mile chase to start 5 minutes before the King George ......... the previous race was a 2 mile hurdle ....... why not just swap them and have the 2 miler at 3.00 ........ which even on slow going took under 4 minutes