richard-westwood Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 Another big race this weekend and with 34 runners its probably the hardest apart from the grand national .....immense mountain to climb so probably gotta start on it and try to narrow the field to somethin manageable Start with no 3yr olds so lose 1 Lightly raced in recent m onthes ..relatively fresh needed No higher than 98 Top 6 finish last time ...no donkeys required I can cull some other no hopers and that has already miraculously reduced the field to 10 possibles!!!! Im amazed by that actually Endless acres Snow falcon Who dares wins London prize Byron flyer Swash buckle Dubawi fifty Isharah Frederick Cape caster now that I've chopped the field I'll pass them through the computer now and post results later Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted October 10, 2017 Author Share Posted October 10, 2017 (edited) In the interests of cutting the field the bottom 5 are showing poor form and low class ratings so I'm gonna cull them 24-32 Leaves 5 horses Endless acres 99.10 Snow falcon 99.02 Who dares wins 99.12 London prize 99.07 Byron flyer 99.02 Edited October 10, 2017 by richard-westwood Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted October 10, 2017 Author Share Posted October 10, 2017 (edited) Endless acres and London prize are coming here after 3 -4 month layoffs and I cant bet on that in such competitive race Snow falcon is ok but a bit slow and will probably get left behind That leaves who dares wins who has had a fantastic prep for this and still looks nicely weighted and Byron flyer who ran a decent race last time in 2nd ...the horses around him that day were rated 98 96 101 so he still looks nicely hcapped off 93 .....priced 12/1and 25/1 currently ewbets in an absolute minefield ??? Who dares wins 10pts e.w 12/1pp Byron flyer 10pts e.w 25/1 bet365 Endless acres could be dangerous if layoff isn't issue but fir me who dares wins is my fav to win ....could be an apt named horse !! Edited October 10, 2017 by richard-westwood Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 @richard-westwood Hi mate, just a quick question or three if you dont mind about your ratings I see the difference between your first five is very small, for example Who Dares Wins has 99.12 and Endless Acres has 99.10. What is that 0.02 in real terms do you think? Would this be a normal gap between runners? Does the gap determine how strong the selections or is this just a guide for you? Good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted October 10, 2017 Author Share Posted October 10, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, BillyHills said: @richard-westwood Hi mate, just a quick question or three if you dont mind about your ratings I see the difference between your first five is very small, for example Who Dares Wins has 99.12 and Endless Acres has 99.10. What is that 0.02 in real terms do you think? Would this be a normal gap between runners? Does the gap determine how strong the selections or is this just a guide for you? Good luck It is the norm tbh.....I probably should change it but I'm convinced I'd mess something up as its very finely balanced .....in the above set I'd equate that to roughly 4 lengths between who dares wins and Byron flyer but it really is purely a guide .....lets say the last 12 winners of this race were 4yrs or less and London prize was the only one that fitted ....I might give him the benefit of the doubt as he holds form cards and profile cards .....the rating includes hcapped ..speed ...recent form ...and dist form so gives you the complete horses hand ......after that its about value and playing percentages .......it may be that the last 5 winners of a race were all rated 100+ and if only one horse in my top 5 qualify and he's 10/1 I'll play it no qualms at all ...,,so yes its strictly a guide for me In the above case I've reversed engineered...I've got strong trends for the race to break it down ....then rate those rather than the whole field ....it works well as long as you only use very strong trends .... only used the 4-5 rated 13/15 or more so roughly 85% probability the winner will fall on the shortlist of 10 .....after that its opinion Even if I can place with 34 runners I think that would be a fab result and I'd be well happy Equally you could argue that because quite a few winners were 50/1 then the bottom five were of interest and I couldn't criticise anyone thinking that but class ratings and my instincts tell me its the top half I want to be in Interesting fact ....11/14 winners were 9st-1 or less that's Byron flyer downwards.....or Byron flyer alone in top half!! Edited October 10, 2017 by richard-westwood BillyHills 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted October 10, 2017 Share Posted October 10, 2017 Cheers mate, good luck. I'll stick mine up on Friday, they are biased towards Class so i'd expect the top rated one to be towards the head of the handicap, but like you say its a bit of a lottery Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted October 11, 2017 Author Share Posted October 11, 2017 It is a very very tough race to tackle so any way to narrow it down has to be a good thing.....I like to think of mine as a police line up ..and then you have to choose the most "likely" suspect ...that's really how I work race to race ...and its not always right but hopefully if I stick to the high priced ones they cancel out the stinkers and generally they do so it seems to work ......sometimes horses just don't turn up ..I look at results sometimes and finished 22 of 24 ?? And I'm like what ?? ....but I've realised that's just racing and not to take it personally anymore just put a line thru it and move on ....but its just a guide ..how else can u tackle a 34 runner hcap?? BillyHills 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 My Ratings Time To Study EW 14/1 Hills Watersmeet EW 40/1 Betfred richard-westwood and Saint R 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbles180 Posted October 14, 2017 Share Posted October 14, 2017 Who Dares Wins Saver on Law Society Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EviL ZippY Posted October 14, 2017 Share Posted October 14, 2017 Withhold @ 12/1 for me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted October 14, 2017 Share Posted October 14, 2017 Bit of a pin sticker but I needed a runner for a competition so I've gone for Laws of Spin was tempted by John Constable and particularly Swamp Fox on the basis that they are really well in on their hurdles rating ....... experts usually reckon a 40/45 pound difference would be the norm but Swamp Fox's flat mark is 65 pounds lower than his hurdles mark needless to say it's not the kind of race I'd ever have a bet on .......... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snoopdog Posted October 14, 2017 Share Posted October 14, 2017 Seven places E/W at 1/5 odds with PP ! I took Who Dares Wins at 10/1 this morning (now 9/1). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted October 14, 2017 Share Posted October 14, 2017 Im on first mochian e/w at 40/1 with skybet lats night paying 8 places 1/5 odds was 2nd in this last year at 50;s 1lb less this time imo will be very hard to keep out of the first 8 not top jump Trainers first sting but thats not a worry to me lesser ones from the yard often run well well worth a decent e/w play for me. Good luck all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertob Posted October 14, 2017 Share Posted October 14, 2017 3.40 Newmarket: Class 2 Cesarewitch Handicap, 2m 2f The lottery that is the Cesarewitch stampede along the Rowley Mile - can't remember I ever backed a horse that came even near the eventual winner. Could it be different today? I have a sneaky feeling Mark Johnston's tough colt Time To Study is undervalued in this contest. The only three year old in the race, despite a 4lb penalty for a gritty success at Doncaster last month, looks well in off his low weight thanks to WFA. How much difference that can make in a 2m 2f contest is a fair question, however the lightly raced colt has been on the upward curve all year long and still had 'only' five starts this year - for a Mark Johnston horse that's on the low end of the scale. Time To Study is rather smallish in size, however is all heart as proven in the Mallard Handicap against some tough older opposition a good four weeks ago. Stamina is no issue, the ground, though, may be quick enough. Tactically I would be surprised if jockey PJ McDonald doesn't move forward to settle Time To Study close enough to the pace - that should ensure a fair run, if anything. Selection: 10pts win - Time To Study @ 14/1 Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EviL ZippY Posted October 14, 2017 Share Posted October 14, 2017 6 hours ago, EviL ZippY said: Withhold @ 12/1 for me b00m richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted October 14, 2017 Author Share Posted October 14, 2017 On 10/10/2017 at 7:30 PM, richard-westwood said: Endless acres and London prize are coming here after 3 -4 month layoffs and I cant bet on that in such competitive race Snow falcon is ok but a bit slow and will probably get left behind That leaves who dares wins who has had a fantastic prep for this and still looks nicely weighted and Byron flyer who ran a decent race last time in 2nd ...the horses around him that day were rated 98 96 101 so he still looks nicely hcapped off 93 .....priced 12/1and 25/1 currently ewbets in an absolute minefield ??? Who dares wins 10pts e.w 12/1pp Byron flyer 10pts e.w 25/1 bet365 Endless acres could be dangerous if layoff isn't issue but fir me who dares wins is my fav to win ....could be an apt named horse !! Byron flyer 7th so get paid ew !! ....72 pts returned ....can't complain at that vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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