BillyHills Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 The first big tournament of the season starts next Thursday at Augusta National Who do you fancy this year? Will we have another European victory? Who can stop Dustin Johnson who is in the form of his life? Can anybody outside of the big 4 cause an upset? Thoughts.............. Latest prices with Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted April 2, 2017 Author Share Posted April 2, 2017 Trends from Dave Tindall at Betfair For each of the last 10 winners, I've listed the following categories that were correct at the time of their victory - age, world ranking, how many Masters they'd played, best finish at Augusta, Masters finish the previous year and best result they'd recorded that season. 2016 - Danny Willett (Age: 28, WR: 12th, Played: 1, Masters Best: 38th, Previous year: 38th, 2016 Best: Win) 2015 - Jordan Spieth (Age: 21, WR: 4th, Played: 1, Masters Best: 2nd, Previous year: 2nd, 2015 Best: Win) 2014 - Bubba Watson (Age: 35, WR: 12th, Played: 5, Masters Best: Win, Previous year: 50th, 2014 Best: Win) 2013 - Adam Scott (Age: 32, WR: 7th, Played: 11, Masters Best: 2nd, Low 18: 67, Previous year: 8th, 2013 Best: T3) 2012 - Bubba Watson (Age: 33, WR: 18th, Played: 3, Masters Best: 20th, Low 18: 67, Previous year: 38th, 2012 Best: 2nd) 2011 - Charl Schwartzel (Age: 26, WR: 29th, Played: 1, Masters Best: 30th, Low 18: 69, Previous year: 30th, 2011 Best: Win) 2010 - Phil Mickelson (Age: 39, WR: 3rd, Played: 17, Masters Best: Win, Low 18: 65, Previous year: 5th, 2010 Best: T8) 2009 - Angel Cabrera (Age: 39, WR: 69th, Played: 9, Masters Best: 8th, Previous year: 25th, 2009 Best: T9) 2008 - Trevor Immelman (Age: 28, WR: 29th, Played: 5, Masters Best: 5th, Previous year: 55th, 2008 Best: T17) 2007 - Zach Johnson (Age: 31, WR: 56th, Played: 2, Masters Best: 32nd, Previous year: 32nd, 2007 Best: T9) Winners trends - 6 of last 10 were in their 30s - 10 of last 10 were aged under 40 - 8 of last 10 were aged 35 or under - 6 of last 10 had been ranked in world's top 20 - 8 of last 10 had been ranked in world's top 30 - 5 of last 10 had played in at least 5 Masters - 6 of last 10 had played in at least 3 Masters - 10 of last 10 had played in at least 1 Masters - 2 of last 10 had won it before - 6 of last 10 had posted a top 10 at Augusta - 7 of last 10 had posted a top 20 at Augusta - 10 of last 10 had posted a top 38 at Augusta - 10 of last 10 had made the cut at Augusta the previous year - 4 of last 10 had already won earlier that season - 6 of last 10 had posted a top 3 earlier that season - 9 of last 10 had posted a top 10 earlier that season - 9 of last 10 winners were not European - 10 of last 10 winners were not the defending champion - 10 of last 10 winners were not the World No.1 Most powerful qualification criteria (Each of the below apply to at least 8 of the last 10 Masters winners) - Not aged over 35 - Ranked in world's top 30 - Played in at least one Masters - Had top 40 at Augusta - Made the cut at Augusta the previous year - Posted a top 10 earlier that season - Not European - Not the defending champion - Not World No.1 Qualifiers There are just six players who clear these statistical hurdles. They are: Jason Day, Jordan Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka and Louis Oosthuizen.Current form A look at the last 10 winners shows that eight had finished in the top 30 in at least one of their two starts before arriving at Augusta National. That means it's time to get shot of Hideki Matsuyama, who has gone off the boil with a group exit in the WGC-Dell Match Play and T45 at Bay Hill. The same applies to Justin Thomas (39-MC). Rounds played Augusta prep is crucial and 9 of the last 10 Masters winners had played six, seven or eight pre-Augusta tournaments that year and between 19 and 30 rounds. Jason Day has completed only 18 rounds and history says he's undercooked so, in this preview at least, the stats are ruthless and out he goes. Rory is already out but the same would apply to him given that he's teed it up in just four events and played only 15 rounds. If Jordan Spieth plays all four days in Houston next week, he'll have played 31 rounds which puts him outside the qualifying mark too. Starting prices DJ, McIlroy, Day and Matsuyama have already been eliminated but here's another stat that goes against them: - 8 of the last 10 Masters winners had an SP of 20/1 of higher. Yep, Bubba (twice) and Adam Scott were both bigger than that So, even if Spieth does have the weekend off in Houston, this stat gets rid of him. A quick note on Dustin Johnson. No player has gone into the Masters as World No.1 and taken the Green Jacket since Tiger in 2002. Also, no player has won four events in a row since Tiger in 2008. DJ's streak is three after his wins in the Genesis Open, WGC-Mexico Championship and WGC-Dell Match Play. It means just two players survive. Conclusion If the trends play out, your Masters winner this year is either Louis Oostuizen or Brooks Koepka. South African Oosthuizen is 34-years-old, ranked World No.28 and has played in eight Masters, finishing runner-up in 2012 and making the top 25 in each of the last three years (25-19-15). He has two top fives this season (Phoenix, World Super 6 Perth) and posted T28 at Bay Hill two starts ago and officially T17 at the WGC-Dell Match Play where he was the joint best group stage loser after winning two of his three games. Koepka is 26, American and sits 25th in the world rankings. He was T9 in the WGC-Dell Match Play on his latest start after winning all three group games before a last 16 exit. He's posted T33 (2015) and T21 (2016) in his two Masters. Brooks Koepka 80/1 EW Stan James (first 7) Louis Oostuizen 55/1 EW Skybet (first 8) Torque 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bamford Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 Augusta is actually a pretty precise exercise. No defending champion, no defending World Number, no course debutants and players with plenty of height with their approach shots and the balls to Go for the Green on par-5s. I'm talking about actual winners here rather than each way places for all those interested in Rahm, Hatton, Hadwin, Pieters, Noren etc. I would have said drawers of the golf ball as well before recent developments and Danny Willett who has a pre-sominate fade won here 12 months ago. When the wind is up, faders can and straight drivers can be competitive. 2017 looks a particularly messy tournament weather-wise. It's set to rain lots in the build-up to the event making the course softer than organisers would want. Think -18 with Jordan Spieth in 2015. But strong wind is set to save them and make scoring difficult over Thursday and Friday. I like Spieth (8/1), Rose (25/1 8ew 1/4 odds), Leishman (60/1 8ew 1/4 odds) and Berger (80/1 8ew 1/4 odds) BillyHills 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted April 3, 2017 Author Share Posted April 3, 2017 Side Markets Top Former Winner Jordon Spieth 11/10 Bet365 Won here before and finsihed 2nd twice. Comes into the tournamnet in good nick and this market looks to have Watson, Mickelson and Scott to beat so 11/10 looks fair to me. Top Australian Jason Day 11/10 Skybet Probably a match between Day and Scott. I know we have the emotion of Jason Day and his mother's ilness but he will want to come and play for her if nothing else. He's an emotional guy anyway and seems to pull out extra in the majors. Scott on the other hand played poorly last week and he's bad value at 13/8. Top GB / Ireland Paul Casey EW 8/1 Bet365 Casey is pretty solid around here and has finished top 6 for the last two years. Anything like that should see him go close in this market. McIlroy is the short priced favourite and he could do anything from win to miss the cut so worth including the Irish and going for this market rather than the Top Englishman version and take the shorter 5/1. Top Spaniard Sergio Garcia 7/4 BetVictor Surprisingly decent odds for Garcia, he's usually odds on for top Spanish player but we have Jon Rahm on the scene this time round. Done superbly well already in his short career but playing here at Augusta for the first time will be interesting to say the least. He's odds on in places and no value to me. Top South African Louis Oosthuizen 6/4 BetVictor Process of elimination here with the 5 South Africans. You cant seriously back Els or Immelman and Grace has missed all 3 cuts at Augusta in his career. Schwartzel is not in the form of his life and has done nothing in the Majors since 2011 when he was gifted the title by McIlroy. Louis is at least playing well, came second here to Bubba so knows his way around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owenclass Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 (edited) The Masters is coming I cant wait for it Edited April 4, 2017 by owenclass Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted April 4, 2017 Author Share Posted April 4, 2017 Outright Market Ive looked and looked at the field this year and I cant honestly feel confident about anyone outside of the top half dozen in the betting. I'll be very surprised if we get a shock result this season. There may be some value in the Top 10 market or similar but for the outright bet i'm going to have to be pretty boring and plump for the World Number 1 Dustin Johnson. I'm a firm believer that current form and familiarity are two things that count for an awful lot in Golf, confidence is a key factor and no one can be as confident at the minute than Johnson. It's a bit like when Tiger was dominating the sport and you would never get anything like the odds we can get on DJ here. Woods was starting the Majors at 2/1! Johnson has the game for Augusta and has proved that with 2 top 6 finishes in his last two outings here. The difference this time is he knows he can finish the job where as before he has thrown the odd title away close home. I wouldn't put anyone off Jordon Spieth or Rory for that matter but the solid option has to be Dustin Johnson Dustin Johnson 7/1 EW Stan James (first 7) My last bet this year is one that caught my eye as I was looking at the side markets, Some bookies are betting without Johnson, Spieth and McIlroy. This interests me as I quite like the chances of Brandt Snedeker and think he can go well this week. I think he is over priced here and worth a nibble EW. He's only 10pts higher to win outright so looks like a bit of value. Brandt Snedeker (W/O Big Three) EW 40/1 Stan James (first 5) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monty63 Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 i was looking to find another 1/2 for a evens double and found bet365 and William hills giving 1/2 and 4/9 for dustin johnson on oddschecker just to make the cut but when tried to put bet on found betting slip was for Zach Johnson not dustin Johnson so be warned hope this is helpful to anybody Sir Puntalot 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 Really looking forward to The Masters very confident that come Sunday night Rory Mcilroy will be putting on his first Green Jacket! Have got him e/w at 8/1 with skybet 1/4 8 places cants see hi not being in thr top 8, also on him at 50/1 to win wire to wire. My anti posts bets for this have been MATSUYAMA @ 33/1 FOWLER 40/1 also went in again on Fowler @ 25/1 eI//w skybet 8 places and got him just before Christmas @ 10/1 to win a major in 2017. Have backed DUSTIN JOHNSON to miss the cut @ 6/1 ( has gone 13/2 with WH) dont fancy him at all. Spieth is a big danger but too short to back. Hopefully come Sunday the final pairing will be Rory & Ricki now wouldnt that be fun!!! Good Luck All Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owenclass Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 (edited) Hideki Matsuyama first round leader 20/1 paddy power I like this price as he is capable of producing a good round round here. He has improved a lot since last year and he is starting to look like a potential major winner Marc Leishman first round leader 50/1 paddy power He is playing well this year and recently won the Honda Classic and has a good record round this place Edited April 6, 2017 by owenclass Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Striker Posted April 5, 2017 Share Posted April 5, 2017 Louis Oosthuizen Each Way @ 60-1 Betfair Sports 6 places [1/5] Like the way he is shaping recently becoming more consistent, has a great iron game so will hit plenty of greens Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted April 6, 2017 Author Share Posted April 6, 2017 Bad weather for the later players its looks like, winds up to 40mph Johnson and McIlroy out late which is not good news. Ted might get lucky on his miss the cut pick though? Day and Speith have got the best of the draw on day 1 if the forecast is right , lets hope the wether improves. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 DJ has falling down stairs in his house may not play Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StevieDay1983 Posted April 6, 2017 Share Posted April 6, 2017 I'm still hopeful that Matsuyama will make his mark at a major this year. Will it be at Augusta? I think now Dustin Johnson has injured his back it is likely between Spieth and McIlroy. Never rule out the Northern Irishman. Tempted to back Westwood for a top 6 finish as well. BillyHills 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted April 7, 2017 Author Share Posted April 7, 2017 Well day one was a bit of a let down. Johnson doesn't play so at least i get a return Most of my other bets are still alive for now. Hopeful of Garcia and Casey bets at this stage. McIlroy recovered a little to keep Ted's hopes alive and Westwood doing well once again for Steves top 6 finish. Latest odds with Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 (edited) Yip turned out you where the lucky one BH! Dont you worry about McIlroy buddy he will be right there going into Sunday Edited April 7, 2017 by Tedthewolf BillyHills 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owenclass Posted April 9, 2017 Share Posted April 9, 2017 (edited) Jordan Spieth to win The Masters 7/2 paddy power I think this could be the time where he manages to forget what happened last year and to come out on top this year as he will be so determined to win it as last years loss must have hurt him A Playoff in the Masters 4/1 paddy power The way it is going i think it could be a playoff as there not much between the four players at the top of the leaderboard and i cant see anyone running away with it Hole in One in the final round 2/1 paddy power There have been quite a few hole in ones in the final round of the Masters and it would not surprise me if there is another one tonight Tournament Specials Spieth, Mcilroy, Fowler, Garcia and Rose to all finish in the Top Ten 5/2 paddy power I fancy this bet as these five are some of the best players in the world and i would think they will play their best in the final round Edited April 9, 2017 by owenclass Sir Puntalot 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted April 10, 2017 Author Share Posted April 10, 2017 Well what a great tournament and we had some winners too On 03/04/2017, 16:11:50, Bamford said: I like Spieth (8/1), Rose (25/1 8ew 1/4 odds), Leishman (60/1 8ew 1/4 odds) and Berger (80/1 8ew 1/4 odds) On 03/04/2017, 19:48:27, BillyHills said: Side Markets Top GB / Ireland Paul Casey EW 8/1 Bet365 Casey is pretty solid around here and has finished top 6 for the last two years. Anything like that should see him go close in this market. McIlroy is the short priced favourite and he could do anything from win to miss the cut so worth including the Irish and going for this market rather than the Top Englishman version and take the shorter 5/1. Top Spaniard Sergio Garcia 7/4 BetVictor Surprisingly decent odds for Garcia, he's usually odds on for top Spanish player but we have Jon Rahm on the scene this time round. Done superbly well already in his short career but playing here at Augusta for the first time will be interesting to say the least. He's odds on in places and no value to me. 15 hours ago, owenclass said: A Playoff in the Masters 4/1 paddy power The way it is going i think it could be a playoff as there not much between the four players at the top of the leaderboard and i cant see anyone running away with it Hole in One in the final round 2/1 paddy power There have been quite a few hole in ones in the final round of the Masters and it would not surprise me if there is another one tonight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Striker Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 On 05/04/2017, 11:16:08, Striker said: Louis Oosthuizen Each Way @ 60-1 Betfair Sports 6 places [1/5] Like the way he is shaping recently becoming more consistent, has a great iron game so will hit plenty of greens T41st well done the winners Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 Although i collected on my McIlroy e/w bet if im honest he was fortunate enough to get T7 and he never really looked like winning it at any stage im a tad disappointed! Well done Sergio Garcia Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Puntalot Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 Well done guys. Was awesome to see Sergio finally get a major, wouldn't surprise to see him get a couple more now the pressure is off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owenclass Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 14 hours ago, BillyHills said: Well what a great tournament and we had some winners too Thank you mate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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