Bamford

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About Bamford

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 01/29/73
  1. I'm not getting involved in this team thing on the PGA Tour this week in New Orleans. Instead I like the look of the following on a very easy and short Par 72 on the European Tour. The Volvo China Open - Levy 25/1, Larrazabal 40/1, Burmester 45/1 and Southgate 200/1.
  2. Tough track this week and with a continual Texan wind across at least the final 54 holes, there will be plenty of players who won't fancy the job this week. The Valero Texas Open is one of the weakest events of the season and plenty in this field won't be a factor. The course is a long Par 72, where 3 of the 4 par-5s are difficult to reach in 2 shots. A feature though of the course, are the fast and pretty undulating green complexes. Poor putters need not apply. So we need a real mix this week. A player who thrives on a technical course, has the power or wedge ability to score well on long par-5s and who can putt well on tough green complexes, which favour those who are comfortable on Bentgrass. Naturally we also want those who are more than comfortable in the wind. I've gone for Branden Grace 28/1, Ryan Moore 28/1 and Kevin Chappell 33/1.
  3. We are looking at a calm week at Harbour Town Golf Links for the 2017 RBC Heritage. As ever a reasonably strong field, without the big hitters who dominate the top of the OWGR, gather at Hilton Head, South Carolina, for a tournament where 'chalk' tends to get the job done. Short-hitters don't get many opportunities to win on the PGA Tour, so this is always a golden opportunity for a named player to win a 2-year exemption. Grace (first US win), Furyk, Kuchar, McDowell, Pettersson (coming of a 2nd at Houston) and Snedeker have won this since 2011. That's a high-quality set of players who have won a plaid jacket at the end of tournament week. i'm anti big, high hitters at Harbour Town, instead I'm looking for players who can plot, and manage their way around this claustrophic set-up. Experience also seems to payout in spades here, with all the above players and Brian Gay before them, being seasoned professionals. Players who like Bermudagrass greens thrive, as do those who can keep bogeys to a minimum, and also hit it close with a wedge in-hand. Kisner 28/1, Dufner 40/1 and Molinari 50/1 are my selections.
  4. Augusta is actually a pretty precise exercise. No defending champion, no defending World Number, no course debutants and players with plenty of height with their approach shots and the balls to Go for the Green on par-5s. I'm talking about actual winners here rather than each way places for all those interested in Rahm, Hatton, Hadwin, Pieters, Noren etc. I would have said drawers of the golf ball as well before recent developments and Danny Willett who has a pre-sominate fade won here 12 months ago. When the wind is up, faders can and straight drivers can be competitive. 2017 looks a particularly messy tournament weather-wise. It's set to rain lots in the build-up to the event making the course softer than organisers would want. Think -18 with Jordan Spieth in 2015. But strong wind is set to save them and make scoring difficult over Thursday and Friday. I like Spieth (8/1), Rose (25/1 8ew 1/4 odds), Leishman (60/1 8ew 1/4 odds) and Berger (80/1 8ew 1/4 odds)
  5. Each way as standard
  6. Always difficult to call with many honing their games for Augusta rather than caring about winning here. That's why we are looking at an average winners' price well into 3-digits if you take all renewals since 2010. So I'm spreading the risk a little this week with an elite player at the top of their game, a Texas specialist whose already qualified for The Masters and 3 non-qualifiers at bigger prices.Jon Rahm 11/1, Charley Hoffman 50/1, Bryson DeChambeau 80/1, Ryan Palmer 150/1 and Bud Cauley 200/1.
  7. I worked it out that the average winner price for this over the past 7 years is 82/1. Out lying prices being Lamely 110/1 and Michael Bradley 135/1. Since then Cejka won here 2 years ago at 125/1 and we have had a raft of 50/1 winners. The past 4 winners have all posted their maiden victory here as well. Golfers in the main don't travel to smaller events when they don't have to, so the fact that the field includes some pretty big names is a credit and highlights the opportunity these alternate events present. Players such as Finau, Baddeley, Piercy and Ogilvy have used this level of tournament to grab a 2 year exemption and qualify for the Tournament of Champions, PGA Championship and Players Championship.I like aggressive players this week and up until this point non-members have never won it. It's the only reason I haven't included Thorbjorn Olesen at a value 60/1 - the kind of price he wins at and we know he loves coastal golf.My players this week are List 28/1, Danny Lee 35/1, J.J. Spaun 40/1, Harold Varner III 66/1 and Jonas Blixt 100/1.
  8. A booming Par 72 format, which really suits those rare-types, aggressive ball-strikers who can putt really well on Bermudagrass greens. We are looking at pure TifEagle in this particular case at Bay Hill so think Albany, Kapalua, Dubai and PGA National across recent months. Aggressive scoring on par-5s is a pre-requisite for success and a set of long par-3s also places a premium on accuracy from distance. But for me the winner here will need to sit in the top 10 for Strokes Gained Putting as Bay Hill traditionally ranks as a hard course to get the ball close to the hole. A mix for me of a course warrior - Rickie Fowler at 18/1 + some young talent who should love the Bay Hill test. Hatton 40/1, Pieters 40/1 and Finau 50/1.
  9. Copperhead is a brute of a course, and it may well play firm and fast after a very dry build-up. Key skills for me look like it will come down to minimising mistakes, scrambling, par-5 scoring (remember Copperhead has 4 par-5s despite being a par 71) and a very hot putter. All kinds can win here, but the winner here has putted at sub 1.7 putts per GIR 6 of the past 7 renewals. That is likely to be quite stretching for many of the pure ball-strikers in the field.So I'm backing for the following players, all of whom have been putting well of late - Justin Thomas (11/1) on his last stroke play outing pre-Augusta; Ryan Moore (28/1), Jason Dufner (50/1), Wesley Bryan (55/1) and Martin Laird (80/1).
  10. We move to the Florida Swing this week on the PGA Tour. Different grasses and design of course, with plenty of water in-play. The Champions Course is a Jack Nicklaus design at PGA National. It's a technical, brute of a course, especially when the wind blows. The forecast is for tough conditions Thursday & Sunday, with easier conditions on Friday and Saturday.The Honda Classic tends to be a grind, where a respect for par is no bad thing - note the lack of top US entries this week! I'm going for players with a positive US Open background who have a motivation to play well this week. Fowler (18), Oosthuizen (33), Kisner (50), Donald (66) and Lingmerth (125).
  11. The Riviera Country Club is always a highlight on the PGA Tour. Hogan's Alley is a beautiful, old classical course, which many can't get on with. Los Angeles has had plenty of rain in the New Year, so expect cut in the turf, which will only be enhanced by a day of rain on Friday, which will see a gnarly front pass through. So soft course specialists will likely gravitate to the top of the leaderboard. Spieth, Day, Matsuyama, Mickelson and Moore top my rankings when it comes to receptive courses per se.3 on my shopping list this week. I missed the scarce 10/1 on Dustin Johnson, but like his chances enough at 9/1. As much a course specialist as Bubba Watson, his liking for classical courses is obvious enough. Love his high, fade shot shape as well for the Riviera test and his win at Crooked Stick last year was on a sodden golf course. That takes me onto Sergio Garcia who at 25/1 is unlikely to go back-to-back on his PGA Tour 2017 debut. However he tends to perform well the outing after a win and his liking for Riviera is clear to see. High, long and again like his fade shape. A must each-way punt.Finally the 66s lasted a few minutes, yesterday but J.B. Holmes is another I like at 50/1. Another power ball-striker, he's been all over the place at Torrey Pines and Scottsdale, but Pebble Beach saw him sneak into the top 13 for ball-striking and 7th for GIR. Classical course positive, Holmes has an excellent record at Riviera and on the West Coast in-general.
  12. Stodgy viewing until Sunday, but a decent betting event. Plenty of weather intrigue set for the opening 36 holes and the course will be nice and soft. I'm with Justin Rose (16), Patrick Reed (33), Chris Kirk (66), Adam Hadwin (66) and Cameron Smith (125).
  13. TPC Scottsdale used to be your typical resort style visit to the desert, Easy scoring and a real drag strip. But Tom Weiskopf has certainly toughened the course and -15/279 will get any player right in the hunt. The problem at the Stadium course tends to be hitting the pre-requisite amount of greens and getting the ball close to the hall with approaches. Power undoubtedly helps, to unlock the par-5s with short iron 2nd shot approaches. Greens are classified as TifEagle Bermudagrass, but they are actually overseeded to protect them at this time of year, with a mixture of grasses including Velvet Bentgrass. Ball striking is king here, as are high approach shots, but naturally the winner will always need to make +20 birdies which requires a decent putting performance.I've gone for Spieth (10/1), Rahm (22), Perez (66), Bradley (66) and O'Hair (125). Best of luck to all.
  14. Love Walker and Woodland this week. Both have genuine chances, so I am on at 30/1 and 40/1 respectively. The 45s on Woodland went 5 minutes before pressing the button and PP/Betfair had him priced at 66s when they opened Monday morning. That lasted all of 10 minutes! I also like the stat that 12 of the last 13 winners here had finished in the top 20 in one of their previous 2 appearances. So I'm also including Dustin Johnson win only at 9/1, plus Martin Laird at 66s - both more than capable on Poa Annua and on this stretch of coastline. To finish, 250/1 for 2-time PGA Tour winner in the past 23 months, James Hahn, seems ludicrous especially as his wins have come at classical icons - Riviera Country Club and Quail Hollow. When the going get's tough Hahn gravitates and he isn't scared of beating the very best in the business. 3rd at PebbleBeach in 2013 also adds credence.
  15. The CareerBuilder Challenge is up there with the John Deere Classic when it comes to low scoring. Saying that PGA West - which is America's No 1 golf resort - will see some fairly significant breeze and even rain throughout it's 4 days this year. Trouble in paradise! A Pro-Am, it's horrible to watch until the Sunday, when the amateurs get dropped. Last year's change of course-rota was also quite significant - with Pete Dye's Stadium Course not overly suiting the power merchants - although Lovemark & List contended. Soft conditions in 2016 are sure to help the bombers course this year, but I'm keeping it simple, with neat and tidy golfers, who in recent outings have fired plenty of those precious par breakers. Zach Johnson - 28/1 - a little rain won't put the 2015 Open Champion off. After 19 months with no-title, the sort who wins this. Kevin Kisner - 40/1 - a short/soft course specialist who loves a Dye design. Charley Hoffman - 50/1 - a tournament specialist who seems to be on the up-trend. Chez Reavie - 66/1 (7 places) - unlikely to win, but has the perfect game for here.