Bamford

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About Bamford

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 01/29/73
  1. A short and pretty stock Par 70 on the PGA Tour this week, after +7,800 yards last week. It's scorable and bombers and plotters can both contend. Turns into an approach shot fest, allied to a putting contest. Naturally tidy plotters can win, with a good week with the flatstick - Knox, Streelman Duke, Jacobson, but players of the ilk of Watson and Leishman have used a little more brute force - indeed Patrick Rodgers was right in the mix 12 months ago. I'm also loathe to go for players who felt the white-heat at the US Open last week, although this year it did play a little more like a PGA Championship - as it did when Freddie Jac contended at Congessional, (he eventually finished 14th) before winning this.Snedeker 28/1, Watson 33/1, Cauley 60/1, Simpson 70/1 and McGirt 110/1.
  2. Long, tough (goes without saying) and with an undoubtedly links feel. Erin Hills will be a stern-test this week. Thunderstorms may soften the course a little more than the USGA would like, but with constant win in-play and a forecast which will see temperatures up into the 28-30 degree Celsius bracket. this is unlikely to become Congressional 2011. However with the purest of A4 Bentgrass putting surfaces and with Mike Davis saying that more putts will be made here than we have seen for a long while at the US Open, we could potentially see a number of players strategising their way around to a mid single-digit under par closing total. As with any US Open I have gone for players who are clearly confident with their driver and approach play, and who have ranked well in the All-Round category in their last appearance. So muy selections are: Jason Day 14/1, Justin Thomas 33/1, Branden Grace 50/1, Kevin Kisner 55/1, Kevin Chappell 66/1 and Shane Lowry 70/1
  3. TPC Southwind is a tough track, which plenty of pros say is in the top 5 courses on Tour. The tournament's spot in the schedule, never helps when it comes to field strength and this week is a particularly weak field. The likes of Andres Romero getting in as alternates says everything. However there is still a full PGA Tour title to earn and Fowler, Koepka, Scott, Mickelson and Molinari headline the betting.The winners list here is varied with rank outsiders and short prices all winning. Elite players though that have won here, have all had a period of time with no victories, so I wouldn't fancy Fowler for the victory. I think players need a great mid-iron game, the ability to birdie par-4s and a strong putting game outside of 15 feet on grainy Champion Bermudagrass greens. I like Koepka (14/1), Henley (33/1), Horschel (33/1), Stricker (50/1 if he plays) and Brown (150/1).
  4. Yes plenty of wind around at Colonial again this week, so with faster conditions under foot than we have seen here for a while, I'd expect higher scoring. I spent far too long deciding whether to include Kevin Kisner - and didn't - so expect the man from Georgia to collect his second PGA Tour victory. Expect a tactical battle at the outset, with plenty of players falling by the wayside is nasty conditions. Those who survive within the top 20 come Saturday will be in with a great shot of victory as wind conditions lessen a little.I have backed Dufner (25/1), Perez (40/1), Horschel (45/1), Kyle Stanley (50/1) and Kirk (66/1).
  5. Always a tough assignment to find the winner of the Byron Nelson. Maiden Tour triumphs and freak winners abound and with his course form DJ could win this at a canter at around 4/1. Despite being a par 70 TPC Four Seasons is one of those courses which can actually be bullied by longer hitters, so length off the tee can actually be a real advantage. Saying that short hitters can also piece their way around the course nicely, with Brendon Todd winning here 3 years ago. Take last year where Koepka gave the title to Garcia, with a top-5 also containing Kuchar, Knost and Levin, side-by-side with Robert Garrigus. All appear welcome!Wind is always a factor in Texas and it's worth remembering that we are now dealing with pure Bentgrass greens. I'm, going for Reed (35/1), Hoffman (40/1), Finau (40/1), Kang (70/1) and Hurley III (150/1).
  6. Some significant changes to the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass. TifEagle Bermudagrass greens now with a drivable par-4 at the 12th hole. Scores should be slightly lower as a result, but with fast and windy conditions forecast, it's going to be a tough enough golf course as ever. Plenty of bigger prices will have a shot as this - we always get some big-priced contenders - but I'm going down the route of a value top-liner in-tandem with 3 players who haven't won in the United States for a period of time. A mix of Major champions and major contenders, who can take on Dustin Johnson and Sergio Garcia. So for me Spieth 14/1, Rose 30/1, Koepka 40/1 and Casey 50/1.
  7. The Wells Fargo Championship moves to Eagle Point Golf Club for a one off visit. A private golf club, 1 mile from the Atlantic coast, it's a Carolina-type golf course with tree-lined fairways. Most holes are straight, and the course features Bentgrass greens. I'm going for McGirt 40/1, Simpson 40/1, Cauley 50/1 and Pettersson 250/1.
  8. I'm not getting involved in this team thing on the PGA Tour this week in New Orleans. Instead I like the look of the following on a very easy and short Par 72 on the European Tour. The Volvo China Open - Levy 25/1, Larrazabal 40/1, Burmester 45/1 and Southgate 200/1.
  9. Tough track this week and with a continual Texan wind across at least the final 54 holes, there will be plenty of players who won't fancy the job this week. The Valero Texas Open is one of the weakest events of the season and plenty in this field won't be a factor. The course is a long Par 72, where 3 of the 4 par-5s are difficult to reach in 2 shots. A feature though of the course, are the fast and pretty undulating green complexes. Poor putters need not apply. So we need a real mix this week. A player who thrives on a technical course, has the power or wedge ability to score well on long par-5s and who can putt well on tough green complexes, which favour those who are comfortable on Bentgrass. Naturally we also want those who are more than comfortable in the wind. I've gone for Branden Grace 28/1, Ryan Moore 28/1 and Kevin Chappell 33/1.
  10. We are looking at a calm week at Harbour Town Golf Links for the 2017 RBC Heritage. As ever a reasonably strong field, without the big hitters who dominate the top of the OWGR, gather at Hilton Head, South Carolina, for a tournament where 'chalk' tends to get the job done. Short-hitters don't get many opportunities to win on the PGA Tour, so this is always a golden opportunity for a named player to win a 2-year exemption. Grace (first US win), Furyk, Kuchar, McDowell, Pettersson (coming of a 2nd at Houston) and Snedeker have won this since 2011. That's a high-quality set of players who have won a plaid jacket at the end of tournament week. i'm anti big, high hitters at Harbour Town, instead I'm looking for players who can plot, and manage their way around this claustrophic set-up. Experience also seems to payout in spades here, with all the above players and Brian Gay before them, being seasoned professionals. Players who like Bermudagrass greens thrive, as do those who can keep bogeys to a minimum, and also hit it close with a wedge in-hand. Kisner 28/1, Dufner 40/1 and Molinari 50/1 are my selections.
  11. Augusta is actually a pretty precise exercise. No defending champion, no defending World Number, no course debutants and players with plenty of height with their approach shots and the balls to Go for the Green on par-5s. I'm talking about actual winners here rather than each way places for all those interested in Rahm, Hatton, Hadwin, Pieters, Noren etc. I would have said drawers of the golf ball as well before recent developments and Danny Willett who has a pre-sominate fade won here 12 months ago. When the wind is up, faders can and straight drivers can be competitive. 2017 looks a particularly messy tournament weather-wise. It's set to rain lots in the build-up to the event making the course softer than organisers would want. Think -18 with Jordan Spieth in 2015. But strong wind is set to save them and make scoring difficult over Thursday and Friday. I like Spieth (8/1), Rose (25/1 8ew 1/4 odds), Leishman (60/1 8ew 1/4 odds) and Berger (80/1 8ew 1/4 odds)
  12. Each way as standard
  13. Always difficult to call with many honing their games for Augusta rather than caring about winning here. That's why we are looking at an average winners' price well into 3-digits if you take all renewals since 2010. So I'm spreading the risk a little this week with an elite player at the top of their game, a Texas specialist whose already qualified for The Masters and 3 non-qualifiers at bigger prices.Jon Rahm 11/1, Charley Hoffman 50/1, Bryson DeChambeau 80/1, Ryan Palmer 150/1 and Bud Cauley 200/1.
  14. I worked it out that the average winner price for this over the past 7 years is 82/1. Out lying prices being Lamely 110/1 and Michael Bradley 135/1. Since then Cejka won here 2 years ago at 125/1 and we have had a raft of 50/1 winners. The past 4 winners have all posted their maiden victory here as well. Golfers in the main don't travel to smaller events when they don't have to, so the fact that the field includes some pretty big names is a credit and highlights the opportunity these alternate events present. Players such as Finau, Baddeley, Piercy and Ogilvy have used this level of tournament to grab a 2 year exemption and qualify for the Tournament of Champions, PGA Championship and Players Championship.I like aggressive players this week and up until this point non-members have never won it. It's the only reason I haven't included Thorbjorn Olesen at a value 60/1 - the kind of price he wins at and we know he loves coastal golf.My players this week are List 28/1, Danny Lee 35/1, J.J. Spaun 40/1, Harold Varner III 66/1 and Jonas Blixt 100/1.
  15. A booming Par 72 format, which really suits those rare-types, aggressive ball-strikers who can putt really well on Bermudagrass greens. We are looking at pure TifEagle in this particular case at Bay Hill so think Albany, Kapalua, Dubai and PGA National across recent months. Aggressive scoring on par-5s is a pre-requisite for success and a set of long par-3s also places a premium on accuracy from distance. But for me the winner here will need to sit in the top 10 for Strokes Gained Putting as Bay Hill traditionally ranks as a hard course to get the ball close to the hole. A mix for me of a course warrior - Rickie Fowler at 18/1 + some young talent who should love the Bay Hill test. Hatton 40/1, Pieters 40/1 and Finau 50/1.