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About Bamford

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 01/29/73
  1. Desert Classic

    Birdiefest at PGA West in the desert in La Quinta, California. You need to be hitting + 72% of Greens, convert 40% of holes to win and be tactical, especially on the host Stadium Course, where there are a number of tough holes which can become very expensive for those who attack rather than play tactical golf. Played across 3 courses, as a Pro-Am, the Desert Classic is a very open betting event, which is always difficult to pin down. However the last 3 winners have played in Hawaii and played well. Dufner was 9th at Waialae, Swafford was 12th at Waialae and Rahm last year was 2nd at Kapalua. All can drive the ball very nicely from Strokes Gained perspective and you have to place all 3 of them in the ball-striker category, although 'Rahmbo' is naturally a class above. I have gone for win only Rahm at 7/1, with supporting each-way bets on Ancer at 40/1, List at 50/1 and Conners at 66/1.
  2. RSM Classic

    Bit of a season-ending PGA Tour shoot-out on the Atlantic coast in Georgia. 2 courses with the Seaside Course par-70 hosting 3 of the 4 rounds. Full 156-man field so a bit of a lottery. Weather on Thursday will be tough in terms of the PGA Tour and cold on Friday. Then a true birdie-fest across the weekend. Players from the south-east of the United States tends to have an advantage as they play on St Simon's Island regularly, either living here or playing SEC (on this course) and Jones Cup on the course next door. I'm in on C.T. Pan 25/1, Chesson Hadley 35/1, Jim Furyk 50/1, Bud Cauley 50/1 and Kramer Hickok 100/1
  3. Mayakoba Golf Classic

    A shoot-out in Cancun, down Mexico way to look forward to this week. El Camaleon golf course is by the coast, although much of it is inland. Key characteristics are that is short, attackable and features Paspalam greens. Naturally this part of the world is warm and tropical, so conditions are standard soft to receptive. The courses main defence is wind, which looks light this week, so a sun -20 winning score is likely to be the magic number again. It is the PGA Tour after all! In-recent winners Patton Kizzire, Pat Perez, Graeme McDowell and Charley Hoffman, we have streaky sorts, who can be neat and tidy, to establish numerous scoring opportunities. Keeping bogeys off the card is also vital as Eagle-Birdie-Double Bogey won't win this tournament. I'm going for Aaron Wise (28/1), Scott Piercy (45/1), Sam Ryder (50/1), Sung-jae Im (60/1) and Robert Streb (125/1).
  4. Our yearly visit to Las Vegas. A players paradise and this year's field gathering at TPC Summerlin looks excellent. Jordan Spieth, Rickie Fowler, Tony Finau, Bryson DeChambeau, Webb Simpson and Gary Woodland all play on this free scoring par-71. A typical desert track, where high Greens in Regulation is required to get the job done, Summerlin is one of those rarities on the PGA Tour where relatively tight fairways are important to find. To shoot -20 or lower around here, it helps to be on the short grass. Bentgrass greens which are sizable are inviting, but those missing the greens have a job on their hands to save par. I'm with Beau Hossler (40/1), Scott Piercy (66/1), Andrew Putnam (66/1), J.J. Spaun (125/1) and Stephan Jaeger (200/1).
  5. One of these alternate events for PGA Tour journeymen, graduates and veterans who can get into these based upon Past Champions status. Often a bit of a dartboard approach, but with winners averaging 225/1 over the past 4 renewals of this title, I'm not really going anywhere near the head of the market. Played at a stock par-72 in Jackson, Mississippi, weather will play it's part this week with rain, wind and northern European-type conditions for the most part. A streaky putter who goes well on Bermudagrass seems a pre-requisite - players with a Tour Playoff campaign under them have a distinct advantage - as many of the PGA Tour journeymen have hardly played since start of August. Cameron Davis 45/1, Curtis Luck 80/1, Richy Werenski 80/1, Ben Silverman 100/1, Wyndham Clark 150/1.
  6. CJ Cup @ Nine Bridges

    The PGA Tour visits South Korea for the second time with the CJ Cup at Nine Bridges GC on Jeju Island. Justin Thomas won here from Marc Leishman last year, where the wind caused all kinds of torments. The wind this year, looks a little easier, so we could well see lower scoring on a course which offers little in terms of defence, if tranquil. Ultimately putting made the difference 12 months ago - usually the case in windy conditions, but power ball-strikers may well have more of a say this time around. I'm going for Hideki Matsuyama (14/1), Gary Woodland (35/1), Brandt Snedeker (50/1), Kyle Stanley (50/1) and JB Holmes (66/1).
  7. CIMB Classic

    The PGA Tour visits Malaysia for the CIMB Classic at TPC Kuala Lumpur. A short par-72 which yields birdies and eagles makes for a resort scoring test in relentless humidity and heat. The West Course this year will feature new TifEagle Bermudagrass greens for the first time - but all-in-all, expect low scoring again this week. All sorts of players can compete this week, but ultimately a top-level ball striker or an aggressive sort who can putt the lights out tends to get the job done. All winners of this since 2010 have also ranked between 22 and 64 in the OWGR. I have gone for Xander Schauffele (20/1), Gary Woodland (22/1) and Cameron Smith (40/1).
  8. Safeway Open

    The start of the new 2018/19 PGA Tour season sees the now well-established trip to Silverado Country Club in Napa, California. A mix of PGA Tour mid-range pros, low-end journeymen and a fresh group of Tour grads - some with plenty of PGA Tour experience and others who are total rookies. A number of the PGA Tour events left in 2018 will look like this from a field perspective, including the Shriners, Sandersons Farms and the OHL Classic in Mexico. Silverado is a pretty stock par 72, which is tree-lined and features tight fairways and undulating greens. In standard weather it's no real challenge, but one of the nuances we need to get a grip of from a tipping perspective are the greens which feature Bentgrass Poa Annua. As we know Poa Annua doesn't suit plenty of players. The course is a ball-strikers paradise, with a set of par-5s which are all reachable, for those who can keep their drives in-play. From a field perspective, Patrick Cantlay has the natural talent to stand-out at the top of the market. He plays this tournament for the first time at Siverado, and the fact he has chosen a "home-state" tournament, says to me, he fancies the job at hand. I'll take the 14/1 on the best ball-striker in the field. I'm also covering previous Silverado champions in the form of Emiliano Grillo (33/1) and Sang-moon Bae (50/1), the latter, who arrives fresh from a win at the Boise Open in the Tour Playoffs. A triple-digits I'm also in on Bronson Burgoon at 100/1, who played well here 12 months ago and seems to be acclimatising well to the PGA Tour after 6th The National, 2nd at the John Deere Classic and 11th in the stacked Northern Trust.
  9. Tour Championship

    A 30-man field for the PGA Tour closing Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta. Plenty on the line this week around the classical, Par 70 which features MiniVerde Bermudagrass greens. It's a stretching course at circa 7,400 yards with a couple of par-5s and players have to play approaches with longer irons rather than a plethora of wedges. No precipitation in this part of Georgia for well over a week, so expect roll on the fairways and firmer greens than we have been accustomed to recently. The course rewards a little accuracy off the tee, but of late, power is becoming more important. In-reality this is a ball-striking exercise, where patience and a game-plan is critical. Hot-heads will struggle and undoubtedly winners here have U.S. Open associations. Of course the FedEx Cup rankings complicate matters further, and I have been selective going for 3 players across the 30-man field. I'm going for Bryson DeChambeau (20/1), Webb Simpson (28/1) and Bubba Watson (50/1).
  10. A familiar tournament on a course we all know. That's till 2019 when this tournament disappears on a Playoffs rota-basis but we digress. TPC Boston is one of those courses where power and top-level ball-striking certainly helps. This course can be bullied, but the make-up of the scoring is interesting. Take Justin Thomas last year where his -17 total was made up at -14 on par-4s and -4 across the 12 looks at the par-5s. Or 2016 when Rory McIlroy shot Level on the par-4s and -12 on the par-5s! In-essence the 3 par-5s as a group are some of the hardest on the PGA Tour each-year, whereas the par-4s open up opportunities. Powerful sorts then are at an advantage as they have the armoury to unlock the par-5s with aggressive - Going for the Green operators tending to eventually triumph here. Greens are Bentgrass, with the inland-links course also likely to benefit from some cut in the fairways and relatively light winds for a course where the wind can seriously affect scoring. I'm on Koepka 14/1, Woods 22/1, Rahm 25/1 and Horschel 45/1.
  11. Wyndham Championship

    The PGA Tour regular season ends at the Wyndham Championship. Top 125 in the FedEx Cup is all-important for those wanting to keep their playing privileges for next year and of course to progress into next week's Playoffs. Sedgefield Country Club is a stock, Carolina type par 70, which is very scorable. Tree-lined and featuring Champion Bermuda grass, it offers-up 2 reachable par-5s and a number of very short par-4s. Hit fairways - it becomes a wedge-fest. Webb Simpson is rightly the tournament favourite, and headlines a field which is not the strongest, with the big guns taking a week off between a pressure-packed period of golf and the start of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. Driving Acc, Greens in Regulation and Proximity to Hole tend to be key here - avoid Bogeys and convert 1 in 3 holes is the target, which isn't all together that easy! I'm with Snedeker 28/1, Si Woo 50/1, Chris Kirk 80/1, Nick Watney 100/1 and Whee Kim 125/1.
  12. RBC Canadian Open

    This will be the last time the RBC Canadian Open visits Glen Abbey, as the course becomes a rather plush private condo-estate. It's a classical, tree-lined course outside of Toronto, which plays as tough as the turf conditions. Rain pre and during tournament week, again should see this being receptive and that means birdies around here. -21 and -17 has won this in receptive years and where the likes of Snedeker, Poulter and Hearn have won and contended here - power off the tee is a large advantage - look at the leaderboard last year! I'm on Bubba Watson (25/1), Charley Hoffman (33/1), Sergio Garcia (40/1) and the bomb Harold Varner III (125/1).
  13. The Open Championship

    Carnoustie is going to be an absolutely classic Open Championship - dry, firm and fast. Look for longer sorts, with immediate form and a top-level scrambling game. Fade shot-shape undoubtedly positive around here. Dustin Johnson 12/1 Sergio Garcia 33/1 Patrick Reed 40/1 Matthew Southgate 150/1 Stewart Cink 250/1
  14. John Deere Classic

    The John Deere Classic is one of the leading birdie-fests on the PGA Tour. A weak field the week before the Open Championship is always assured, and sure enough weird and whacky names contend year-in, year-out at this tournament. However in DeChambeau, Moore, Spieth (x2), Harman, Zach Johnson, Stricker (x3) and Perry, quality has won this tournament going all the way back to 2008. It seems one of the shorter prices, who has recent Top 10 finishes will always eventually win-out here at a tournament where -19 will be the minimum required. So I'm keeping it simple with 4 players who arrive in Silvis, Illinois in half decent nick. The can hit the ball close with wedge in-hand, are useful on par-3s and par-4s and sit within the top 55 for Birdie Average - that's good for this depth of field. All are streaky scorers, who have a history in -up-state North America locations. They also have course experience, which rules out Molinari and Niemann for me of the very short prices. Kyle Stanley (28/1), Chesson Hadley (33/1), Chris Kirk (50/1) and Chez Reavie (80/1)
  15. Greenbrier

    A par-70 course in White Sulphur Springs, Old White TPC has now hosted a PGA Tour tournament since 2010. As a tournament, it's never really 'caught fire' and despite attracting some names every year, they rarely feature. That could be due to the party hosted by Nick Faldo in his mansion here, or it could be due to a lack of motivation at a tournament, which many players describe in interview as having a small-scale feel to it. Maybe that's why graduates tend to fly here, on a course which is trickier than people give it credit for. Bentgrass green complexes are tricky and eventually a good putter wins this over a pure ball-striker. Don't get me wrong high-class ball-strikers or high-class short game players can all win this, but if you expect Keegan Bradley to win this week - you might be disappointed. Essentially you still have to get the ball in the hole, and those with a hotter putter eventually win. I'm on Joaquin Niemann (28/1), Danny Lee (60/1), Anirban Lahiri (70/1), Stephan Jaeger (200/1) and Denny McCarthy (250/1).