Bamford

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About Bamford

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 01/29/73
  1. Tour Championship

    A 30-man field for the PGA Tour closing Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta. Plenty on the line this week around the classical, Par 70 which features MiniVerde Bermudagrass greens. It's a stretching course at circa 7,400 yards with a couple of par-5s and players have to play approaches with longer irons rather than a plethora of wedges. No precipitation in this part of Georgia for well over a week, so expect roll on the fairways and firmer greens than we have been accustomed to recently. The course rewards a little accuracy off the tee, but of late, power is becoming more important. In-reality this is a ball-striking exercise, where patience and a game-plan is critical. Hot-heads will struggle and undoubtedly winners here have U.S. Open associations. Of course the FedEx Cup rankings complicate matters further, and I have been selective going for 3 players across the 30-man field. I'm going for Bryson DeChambeau (20/1), Webb Simpson (28/1) and Bubba Watson (50/1).
  2. A familiar tournament on a course we all know. That's till 2019 when this tournament disappears on a Playoffs rota-basis but we digress. TPC Boston is one of those courses where power and top-level ball-striking certainly helps. This course can be bullied, but the make-up of the scoring is interesting. Take Justin Thomas last year where his -17 total was made up at -14 on par-4s and -4 across the 12 looks at the par-5s. Or 2016 when Rory McIlroy shot Level on the par-4s and -12 on the par-5s! In-essence the 3 par-5s as a group are some of the hardest on the PGA Tour each-year, whereas the par-4s open up opportunities. Powerful sorts then are at an advantage as they have the armoury to unlock the par-5s with aggressive - Going for the Green operators tending to eventually triumph here. Greens are Bentgrass, with the inland-links course also likely to benefit from some cut in the fairways and relatively light winds for a course where the wind can seriously affect scoring. I'm on Koepka 14/1, Woods 22/1, Rahm 25/1 and Horschel 45/1.
  3. Wyndham Championship

    The PGA Tour regular season ends at the Wyndham Championship. Top 125 in the FedEx Cup is all-important for those wanting to keep their playing privileges for next year and of course to progress into next week's Playoffs. Sedgefield Country Club is a stock, Carolina type par 70, which is very scorable. Tree-lined and featuring Champion Bermuda grass, it offers-up 2 reachable par-5s and a number of very short par-4s. Hit fairways - it becomes a wedge-fest. Webb Simpson is rightly the tournament favourite, and headlines a field which is not the strongest, with the big guns taking a week off between a pressure-packed period of golf and the start of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. Driving Acc, Greens in Regulation and Proximity to Hole tend to be key here - avoid Bogeys and convert 1 in 3 holes is the target, which isn't all together that easy! I'm with Snedeker 28/1, Si Woo 50/1, Chris Kirk 80/1, Nick Watney 100/1 and Whee Kim 125/1.
  4. RBC Canadian Open

    This will be the last time the RBC Canadian Open visits Glen Abbey, as the course becomes a rather plush private condo-estate. It's a classical, tree-lined course outside of Toronto, which plays as tough as the turf conditions. Rain pre and during tournament week, again should see this being receptive and that means birdies around here. -21 and -17 has won this in receptive years and where the likes of Snedeker, Poulter and Hearn have won and contended here - power off the tee is a large advantage - look at the leaderboard last year! I'm on Bubba Watson (25/1), Charley Hoffman (33/1), Sergio Garcia (40/1) and the bomb Harold Varner III (125/1).
  5. The Open Championship

    Carnoustie is going to be an absolutely classic Open Championship - dry, firm and fast. Look for longer sorts, with immediate form and a top-level scrambling game. Fade shot-shape undoubtedly positive around here. Dustin Johnson 12/1 Sergio Garcia 33/1 Patrick Reed 40/1 Matthew Southgate 150/1 Stewart Cink 250/1
  6. John Deere Classic

    The John Deere Classic is one of the leading birdie-fests on the PGA Tour. A weak field the week before the Open Championship is always assured, and sure enough weird and whacky names contend year-in, year-out at this tournament. However in DeChambeau, Moore, Spieth (x2), Harman, Zach Johnson, Stricker (x3) and Perry, quality has won this tournament going all the way back to 2008. It seems one of the shorter prices, who has recent Top 10 finishes will always eventually win-out here at a tournament where -19 will be the minimum required. So I'm keeping it simple with 4 players who arrive in Silvis, Illinois in half decent nick. The can hit the ball close with wedge in-hand, are useful on par-3s and par-4s and sit within the top 55 for Birdie Average - that's good for this depth of field. All are streaky scorers, who have a history in -up-state North America locations. They also have course experience, which rules out Molinari and Niemann for me of the very short prices. Kyle Stanley (28/1), Chesson Hadley (33/1), Chris Kirk (50/1) and Chez Reavie (80/1)
  7. Greenbrier

    A par-70 course in White Sulphur Springs, Old White TPC has now hosted a PGA Tour tournament since 2010. As a tournament, it's never really 'caught fire' and despite attracting some names every year, they rarely feature. That could be due to the party hosted by Nick Faldo in his mansion here, or it could be due to a lack of motivation at a tournament, which many players describe in interview as having a small-scale feel to it. Maybe that's why web.com graduates tend to fly here, on a course which is trickier than people give it credit for. Bentgrass green complexes are tricky and eventually a good putter wins this over a pure ball-striker. Don't get me wrong high-class ball-strikers or high-class short game players can all win this, but if you expect Keegan Bradley to win this week - you might be disappointed. Essentially you still have to get the ball in the hole, and those with a hotter putter eventually win. I'm on Joaquin Niemann (28/1), Danny Lee (60/1), Anirban Lahiri (70/1), Stephan Jaeger (200/1) and Denny McCarthy (250/1).
  8. Quicken Loans National

    A very weak tournament when compared to the Open de France at Le Golf National this week. Where Paris has the likes of Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm, Tommy Fleetwood and Alex Noren topping a high-class field, Washington DC and the Quicken Loans National has Rickie Fowler, tournament-host Tiger Woods and Marc Leishman backed up by the likes of Francesco Molinari, Kyle Stanley and J.B. Holmes in the betting. It's not great! TPC Potomac is a tough course, where a single-digit winning score is likely to win. We may see two tournaments this week in one as a soft course yields birdies across Thursday/Friday before roasting temperatures turn the course into something a lot more fiery. TPC Potomac has the definite look of Wentworth about it, so you can see Francesco Molinari flourishing, but I can't take him at the price available. With Kyle Stanley a winner last year, look for a ball-striker who can keep bogeys off the card with pateince and a decent-level scrambling game. I'm in on Byeong-Hun An (40/1), Joaquin Niemann (50/1), Si Woo Kim (50/1), Andrew Putnam (66/1) and James Hahn (125/1).
  9. Travelers Championship

    The Travelers Championship is always a well attended and well respected event on the PGA Tour. Again the field is strong, with plenty of the top names in their last United States outing before the Open Championship. TPC River Highlands is in Hartford, Connecticut, and it's a short Par 70 featuring only 2 par-5s. Greens are reasonably sized and again feature Bentgrass Poa Annua greens. The course is parkland, featuring tree-lined holes and little water. All sorts can win here with a winning score of between -12 to -15 the norm. I'm with Bubba Watson (33/1), Patrick Cantlay (40/1), Brian Harman (50/1), Kyle Stanley (60/1), Emiliano Grillo (66/1) and Patrick Rodgers (80/1).
  10. US Open

    Shinnecock Hills hosts the 118th United States Open Championship. A 7,440 yard par 70, the USGA will ensure that the course will be no pushover. An inland links-type test, the course features only 2 par-5s, 7 par-4s at +450 yards and naturally plenty of thigh high fescue grass. In-reality though this Coore & Crenshaw renovation is wide off the tee and as with all US Opens of late those with a huge game off the tee are most likely to succeed. Make no bones though, this is going to play firm and fast, so those with a nuance for links-type golf on fescue fairways are going to love the test this week. I'm going for Rickie Fowler (20/1), Jon Rahm (20/1), Jimmy Walker (100/1), Brandt Snedeker (110/1), Keegan Bradley (150/1) and Gary Woodland (150/1) - enjoy the 2nd Major of 2018
  11. FedEx St Jude Classic

    The St Jude Classic is the traditional curtain-raiser for the U.S. Open, which from 2019 will receive WGC-status. The week before a Major is never the best spot to be for a 'regular' tournament on the PGA Tour and as ever the field is weak. Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Phil Mickelson and Henrik Stenson grace the top of the betting, but lower down we are seeing the tradional swathe of WDs from players who got through USO Sectional Qualifying yesterday, or quite simply need a rest (Beau Hossler). TPC Southwind is a tough par 70 with lots of water in-play. 8 par-4s play at +450 yards and as a set they are difficult. The 2 par-5s present eagle opportunities and the 8 looks at them need to be maximised. Fairways are zoysiagrass, with Champion Bermudagrass greens. Temperatures get up to 35 degrees Celsius so the tournament tends to be slog and tightly contested. Little wind this week and invitating playing conditions across Thurs/Fri, so scoring likely to be around the -12/-14 winning mark. Elite players with a win agenda can take this, as can Tour maidens. sometimes at rather tasty prices. I'm going with Luke List (50/1), Kiradech Aphibarnrat (50/1), Matt Jones (150/1), Wesley Bryan (200/1) and Ryan Blaum (300/1).
  12. Memorial Tournament

    The strongest domestic tournament on the PGA Tour this week with the Memorial at Muirfield Village. Jack Nicklaus' tournament always attracts the very best and this 120-man field is always the strongest non FedEx Cup event of the year. 11 of the world's top 16 are present this week with only Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka, Paul Casey, Tommy Fleetwood and Sergio Garcia absent. The course is a classical, tree-lined affair which is located in Ohio. There are definite links with Ohio's other world-class course Firestone South and you can find other correlating form links with other Nicklaus course designs played at Career BuilderChallenge, Honda Classic and RBC Canadian Open's played at Glen Abbey. The Champions List is varied. 2010 - 2013 saw Kuchar 22/1; Woods 16/1; Stricker 28/1; and Rose 80/1 win here with Justin capturing his first PGA Tour title. But since then Matsuyama 66/1, Lingmerth 500/1, McGirt 200/1 and Dufner 66/1 have triumphed here. The wins for the first 3 of those were maiden victories with Dufner delivering his 5 PGA Tour victory. With the top 6 in the betting priced between 12/1 to 16/1 and with Tiger Woods now at sub-20/1 this is a loaded contest. But as we can see above, longer prices do tend to be victorious. I'm going with Leishman 33/1, Grillo 50/1, DeChambeau 50/1, Moore 80/1 and Hoffman 150/1. I'm also backing Charley in the FRL market at 125/1.
  13. Forth Worth Invitational

    We sat in the Dallas / Forth Worth area this week for the final leg of the Texas Swing. The Forth Worth invitational is always a strong event on the PGA Tour, with Colonial Country Club, rightly attracting a strong field. With the PGA Tour legislating to get players to visit new events, the like of Justin Rose, Brooks Kopeka and Rickie Fowler add flavour to the tournament this week, and mix in-well with the likes of Kisner, Zach Johnson, Dufner, Kuchar, Simpson, Scott and Walker. Throw-in the young talents of Cantlay, DeChambeau, Grillo, Smith, Hadley and last week's winner Aaron Wise and this tournament is pretty stacked. I'm looking for players with a classical course record and who like Bentgrass greens. A previous top 10/12 finish at Colonial seems a must for the winner - although World Number 1 (at the time) Adam Scott won here in 2014 with nothing better than a 64th here. And I have also gone for players who have shown flashes of form since Augusta. I'm tipping up Jon Rahm (14/1), Jason Dufner (33/1), Zach Johnson (50/1) and Danny Lee (90/1).
  14. AT&T Byron Nelson

    A new course to get our heads around this week. Trinity Forest GC in south-east Dallas. Not your stock PGA Tour course, it's set on an old landfill site. It's effectively a faux-links, so looks extremely links-like, but think Chambers Bay or Erin Hills. Wide fairways, no rough, but plenty of hazards including native areas, severe green run-offs, severely contoured greens with a majority that repel approaches. It looks a little like classic courses we see in the Melbourne sand-belt area and Open Champion + Trinity-member Jordan Spieth describes it as similar in the skill-sets needed to when he won at Birkdale last July. Strategic course management, accurate approaches and a super short game, especially with scrambling from distance will be required. It maybe a U.S. faux links-test, but plenty in the field won't like this whatsoever. Wind could be a factor on Fri/Sat but in-general I think the course will be scorable. I'm on Adam Scott (25/1), Branden Grace (25/1), Beau Hossler (40/1), Brandt Snedeker (60/1) and Peter Uihlein (66/1).
  15. The PLAYERS Championship

    We visit the Pete Dye designed Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass for The Players Championship. The PGA Tour's biggest tournament of the year, The Players victor earns some huge rewards. The winner receives a five-year exemption on the PGA Tour, a three-year invitation to the Masters, U.S. Open, The Open Championship and the PGA Championship. If European or American, they will also pretty much guarantee selection in their respective Ryder Cup teams. With such huge rewards on the table, you would expect the tournament champions list to be dominated by the very biggest names in the game and you would be partly correct. World Number 1s Tiger Woods and Jason Day have both one this in-recent times, but the likes of Si Woo Kim, Rickie Fowler, Martin Kaymer, Matt Kuchar and K.J. Choi, all came into the tournament at some serious odds. Top players, who needed to win a big tournament at the time they did. With DJ, Thomas, Spieth, Rahm and Rose all having cracks at leaving Ponte Vedra Beach with the World Number 1 mantle, it's almost as if we need to look deeper in this stacked field for the winner. So I'm looking for strategists this week, who have shown enough underlying form in the last 4/5 weeks to give this a real crack, The course will play firm and fast and the 2017-new greens are likely to be as non-compliant this time around in terms of accepting approach shots. Wind though, which pretty-much is always a feature of The Players won't be in 2018. Solid (not spectacular) tee-to-green is needed this week, as is the ability to actually play for the middle of greens on a number of key holes. Scrambling (or strokes gained around the green) is the critical stat this week, over and above everything including putting. So I'm going for Henrik Stenson 33/1, Bryson DeChambeau 55/1, Kevin Kisner 66/1, Zach Johnson 80/1 and Adam Hadwin 100/1