richard-westwood Posted February 8, 2017 Author Share Posted February 8, 2017 730 chelm thurs Eljadaaf 120 +12 Bosham 111 -2 Boomerang Bob 105 level Eljaddaaf recorded a fantastic time destroying his field last time ...has been raised 11lbs for that effort but could still be ahead ofvthe hcapper ...Boomerang Bob should run well and Kirby been booked so they expect a big run ...but better values Bosham who recorded a decent time in defeat and looks nicely treated now so shouldnt be far away ..,12/1 is vastly overpriced ...tempted to go ew Bosham but fav could still be nicely hcapoed so tagvteam Elhaddaf 5pts win 7/2 bet365 Bosham 5pts win 12/1 lads Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 9, 2017 Author Share Posted February 9, 2017 830 chelm Zorba the Greek 91 level Jumbo prada 98 -5 Ebbisham 101 -6 Z orba the Greek is well fancied around 7/2 and has form over CD so should run a good race but theres far better value in the other two here ...jumbo prada ran a stinker last time but i blame that onnpoor jockey ..new claimer ...but had previously recorded his 98 and is now 5lbs better in ....ebbisham ran a good time in defeat last time and is 6lb better at the weights ...prices 12/1 and 28/1 !!....excellent value Jumbo Pravda 5pts win 28/1 betvic Ebbisham 5pts win 12/1 bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 9, 2017 Author Share Posted February 9, 2017 18 hours ago, richard-westwood said: 730 chelm thurs Eljadaaf 120 +12 Bosham 111 -2 Boomerang Bob 105 level Eljaddaaf recorded a fantastic time destroying his field last time ...has been raised 11lbs for that effort but could still be ahead ofvthe hcapper ...Boomerang Bob should run well and Kirby been booked so they expect a big run ...but better values Bosham who recorded a decent time in defeat and looks nicely treated now so shouldnt be far away ..,12/1 is vastly overpriced ...tempted to go ew Bosham but fav could still be nicely hcapoed so tagvteam Elhaddaf 5pts win 7/2 bet365 Bosham 5pts win 12/1 lads Bosham non runner so replace with boomerang Bob 11/2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 9, 2017 Author Share Posted February 9, 2017 (edited) On 08/02/2017, 18:29:03, richard-westwood said: 730 chelm thurs Eljadaaf 120 +12 Bosham 111 -2 Boomerang Bob 105 level Eljaddaaf recorded a fantastic time destroying his field last time ...has been raised 11lbs for that effort but could still be ahead ofvthe hcapper ...Boomerang Bob should run well and Kirby been booked so they expect a big run ...but better values Bosham who recorded a decent time in defeat and looks nicely treated now so shouldnt be far away ..,12/1 is vastly overpriced ...tempted to go ew Bosham but fav could still be nicely hcapoed so tagvteam Elhaddaf 5pts win 7/2 bet365 Bosham 5pts win 12/1 lads 6 hours ago, richard-westwood said: Bosham non runner so replace with boomerang Bob 11/2 Boomerang Bob and eljaddaf 1st and 3rd barely half length separating them ...that's better 32pts returned Edited February 9, 2017 by richard-westwood Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 10, 2017 Author Share Posted February 10, 2017 3.00 south Bring on a spinner 101 Medway 97 Meadway ran below par last time but is better than that having recorded 97 the time before over CD so can't be overlooked ....bring on a spinner ran a quick time over 6f last time when winning easily ...only penalised 3lb and drop to 5f shouldn't be a problem ....should be a good race between top two Bring on a spinner 5pts win 5/1 lads Meadway 5pts win 10.5 betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 450 wolv Monday Dandelion 93 Khoodimoor 90 Chandresh 89 Dandelion probably would have won here over cd apart from being snatched up late on so with only 2lb penalty comes here with a strong hand ...also has services of Kirby so connections mean business .... Dandelion 4pts win 15/8 bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 12, 2017 Author Share Posted February 12, 2017 2 hours ago, richard-westwood said: 450 wolv Monday Dandelion 93 Khoodimoor 90 Chandresh 89 Dandelion probably would have won here over cd apart from being snatched up late on so with only 2lb penalty comes here with a strong hand ...also has services of Kirby so connections mean business .... Dandelion 4pts win 15/8 bet365 Just having a 1pt saver on times in anatefka at 4/1 to return all stakes ...not because of speed but my class ratings are Swendab 81 Dandelion 79 Give us a belle 82 Pull the pin 92 Times in anatefka 156 And times is also off bottom weight in this so worth a cover bet Times in anatefka 1pt win 4/1 pp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 13, 2017 Author Share Posted February 13, 2017 23 hours ago, richard-westwood said: 450 wolv Monday Dandelion 93 Khoodimoor 90 Chandresh 89 Dandelion probably would have won here over cd apart from being snatched up late on so with only 2lb penalty comes here with a strong hand ...also has services of Kirby so connections mean business .... Dandelion 4pts win 15/8 bet365 21 hours ago, richard-westwood said: Just having a 1pt saver on times in anatefka at 4/1 to return all stakes ...not because of speed but my class ratings are Swendab 81 Dandelion 79 Give us a belle 82 Pull the pin 92 Times in anatefka 156 And times is also off bottom weight in this so worth a cover bet Times in anatefka 1pt win 4/1 pp Times in anatefka wins but dandelion wasn't given a good ride and would probably have won came from last to finish 3rd but was given too much to do ....stakes returned so fight another day .....still new sheet working far better now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 13, 2017 Author Share Posted February 13, 2017 510 Newc tues Monsieur paddy seemed to take a big step forward and recorded a 90 over 6f at Kemp ...that's decent for this grade and drop to 5f shouldn't be a bad thing ...available at 7/1 looks a decent ew bet Monsieur paddy 3pts ew 7/1 bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 14, 2017 Author Share Posted February 14, 2017 3.00 wolv weds Roaring Rory 77 class 33 place David's beauty 83 class 37 place Pearl noir 73 class 45 unplace Just posting this up quick before I go out ,...no prices yet I'll update later but interesting example though ....speed ratings say David's beauty comes out top on adjusted ratings ....Pearl noir comes out top on class ratings but David's beauty is 2nd rated but David's beauty is also well hcapped so overall the suggested bet is David's beauty ew ....hopefully I can find 11/2 + later and I'll be a happy boy else its win bets Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 14, 2017 Author Share Posted February 14, 2017 3 hours ago, richard-westwood said: 3.00 wolv weds Roaring Rory 77 class 33 place David's beauty 83 class 37 place Pearl noir 73 class 45 unplace Just posting this up quick before I go out ,...no prices yet I'll update later but interesting example though ....speed ratings say David's beauty comes out top on adjusted ratings ....Pearl noir comes out top on class ratings but David's beauty is 2nd rated but David's beauty is also well hcapped so overall the suggested bet is David's beauty ew ....hopefully I can find 11/2 + later and I'll be a happy boy else its win bets 7/1 with paddyp that'll do ...4pts ew David's beauty Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 14, 2017 Author Share Posted February 14, 2017 820 Kemp Little Indian 78 +3 adj 80 Zabdi 81 level adj 84+ Spirit of gondree 83 +1 adj 75 Overall the one to be on here is zabdi....little Indian is fav and could run well but steps up in grade and distance so more needed ...also zabdis saddle slipped last time so value for more than his adjusted 84 .....at 4/1 he looks the value choice Zabdi 4pts win 4/1 will h Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 15, 2017 Author Share Posted February 15, 2017 (edited) 650 Kemp Francos secret 103 adj 100 +3 Mister music 98 adj 99 -1 It's occurred to me that maybe a different approach is needed to get the best out of the speed ratings ....lots of the top rated horses are placing so maybe use that strength for you instead of against by using place only betting ....today's race cherbourg only ran a 80 last time but has been installed short fav on account of possible improver....Franco's secret has won last two marginally and receives a 3lb penalty whereas mister music is 1lb less making a 4lb pull for 1.75 lengths effectively meeting on equal terms today ...average .place price is 1.89 (10/11).....so maybe start treating it like a business squeezing out a bit of profit each day ...at those odds you only need a strike rate of placing off 53% to break even !!..anything over that is sheer profit ...surely that's achievable!!....so over 100 bets I only need 53 to place and the rest is mining gold ? ..... Anyway drawn 4 mister music at 2.46 looks a strong place bet today even if cherbourg improves and is not guaranteed to...a place at least looks a very strong bet Mister music 5pts place 3places 2.46 betfair Also in above race 3.00 wolv David's beauty is showing 2.14 to be placed first 4!!....I'll have that too 3.00 wolv David's beauty 5pts to be place first 4 .... 2.2 betfair Edited February 15, 2017 by richard-westwood Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 15, 2017 Author Share Posted February 15, 2017 550 Kemp Indian affair 80 Bookmaker 76 79 Quintus cerilis 79 Indian affair is better over shorter so omitted over this longer trip ....Bookmaker is well fancied today and sets the standard but quintus cerilis did everything wrong last time ...slow start boxed in at back and still last 1f out yet still recorded a79 ? ...today claimer takes off a handy 5lb too so lets play and see what happens Quintus cerilis 5pts ew 6/1 bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 15, 2017 Author Share Posted February 15, 2017 I've learned a lot over the past couple weeks ......not disheartened even though there's been some bad luck ....I can see its starting to come together ...I've been constantly monitoring the course standards and have altered them accordingly now I have a good selection of results ...like a snowball effect it should help big time so lets keep plugging on i think it will pay dividends soon .... Lingn5f 58.08 6f 70.77 7f 83.21 8f 96.53 Kemp 5f 59.01 6f 72.40 7f 85.00 8f 98.20 Chelm 5f 58.74 6f 71.00 7f 84.50 8f 98.35 Wolv 5f 60.70 6f 73.20 7f 87.00 81/2 f 108.00 Newc 5f 58.20 6f 72,20 7f 86.41 8f 98.88 Onwards and upwards ...good things come to those who wait Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 15, 2017 Author Share Posted February 15, 2017 1 hour ago, richard-westwood said: 550 Kemp Indian affair 80 Bookmaker 76 79 Quintus cerilis 79 Indian affair is better over shorter so omitted over this longer trip ....Bookmaker is well fancied today and sets the standard but quintus cerilis did everything wrong last time ...slow start boxed in at back and still last 1f out yet still recorded a79 ? ...today claimer takes off a handy 5lb too so lets play and see what happens Quintus cerilis 5pts ew 6/1 bet365 Useless horse last out again and finished 4th...wat can u do ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 15, 2017 Author Share Posted February 15, 2017 10 hours ago, richard-westwood said: 650 Kemp Francos secret 103 adj 100 +3 Mister music 98 adj 99 -1 It's occurred to me that maybe a different approach is needed to get the best out of the speed ratings ....lots of the top rated horses are placing so maybe use that strength for you instead of against by using place only betting ....today's race cherbourg only ran a 80 last time but has been installed short fav on account of possible improver....Franco's secret has won last two marginally and receives a 3lb penalty whereas mister music is 1lb less making a 4lb pull for 1.75 lengths effectively meeting on equal terms today ...average .place price is 1.89 (10/11).....so maybe start treating it like a business squeezing out a bit of profit each day ...at those odds you only need a strike rate of placing off 53% to break even !!..anything over that is sheer profit ...surely that's achievable!!....so over 100 bets I only need 53 to place and the rest is mining gold ? ..... Anyway drawn 4 mister music at 2.46 looks a strong place bet today even if cherbourg improves and is not guaranteed to...a place at least looks a very strong bet Mister music 5pts place 3places 2.46 betfair Also in above race 3.00 wolv David's beauty is showing 2.14 to be placed first 4!!....I'll have that too 3.00 wolv David's beauty 5pts to be place first 4 .... 2.2 betfair Franco's 2nd... mister 3rd running on too late ...some shit rides lately gotta say but the pieces are starting to fall ....patience Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 15, 2017 Author Share Posted February 15, 2017 145 ling thurs Seprani 90 Sea tea dea 90 Auric goldfinger 84 Uric goldfinger is a potential improver but he's somewhat behind the top two who are rated highly for this grade so they should make a bold bid ... Seprani 5pts win 7/1 bet365 Sea tea dea 5pts 6/1 bet365 DanV89 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 15, 2017 Author Share Posted February 15, 2017 23 hours ago, richard-westwood said: 820 Kemp Little Indian 78 +3 adj 80 Zabdi 81 level adj 84+ Spirit of gondree 83 +1 adj 75 Overall the one to be on here is zabdi....little Indian is fav and could run well but steps up in grade and distance so more needed ...also zabdis saddle slipped last time so value for more than his adjusted 84 .....at 4/1 he looks the value choice Zabdi 4pts win 4/1 will h Wins easily BillyHills and DanV89 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 1 hour ago, richard-westwood said: Wins easily Good winner, was clear best on my ratings DanV89 and richard-westwood 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanV89 Posted February 15, 2017 Share Posted February 15, 2017 16 minutes ago, BillyHills said: Good winner, was clear best on my ratings Josie Gordon on fire!! richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 16, 2017 Author Share Posted February 16, 2017 625 chelm I suppose if im going to use speed ratings you have to back them when they say back or what's the point....today's race traveller recorded a 85 last time at ling and now carries 10lb less today ...that is huge figure for a maiden and this is no easy race with tipsters going for other potential improving types but at 4/1 and with no one else near him I can't just ignore it so I'll go in big today and hope the figures hold ...I doubt that price will hold later Traveller 10pts win 4/1 betvic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 16, 2017 Author Share Posted February 16, 2017 430 ling Picansort 92 Compton Prince 88 Disclosure 88 Spirit of zebeedee 87 As you can very very close race so no value in spirits 11/4....picansort is far better over 5f so i dont fancy him over this6f...thats leaves compton prince 10/1 and disclosure 13/2 ....pretty good value in context especially compton prince as its over cd so ill play Compton Prince 5pts win 10/1 will h Disclosure 5pts win 13/2 bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 16, 2017 Author Share Posted February 16, 2017 1 hour ago, richard-westwood said: 430 ling Picansort 92 Compton Prince 88 Disclosure 88 Spirit of zebeedee 87 As you can very very close race so no value in spirits 11/4....picansort is far better over 5f so i dont fancy him over this6f...thats leaves compton prince 10/1 and disclosure 13/2 ....pretty good value in context especially compton prince as its over cd so ill play Compton Prince 5pts win 10/1 will h Disclosure 5pts win 13/2 bet365 Compton prince just pipped by spirit of zebedeh ...well i think its tuned right now...rest is down to luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 16, 2017 Author Share Posted February 16, 2017 I'm starting to enjoy this now ....I can see the standards are almost spot on now and that's taken a while to fine tune but its very important as the maths doesn't work without them....worth the wait though as now I can concentrate on the racing and hopefully I can run a decent double up soon and justify all the hard work and prove you can win big from speed ratings ....I know it can be done its just the pieces have to fall right for it to happen but its coming I can feel it ....I'm certain of it now ..,.anyway I'll rate another race and get some more practice in vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikki37 Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 21 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: Compton prince just pipped by spirit of zebedeh ...well i think its tuned right now...rest is down to luck This is very interesting and great to see that it's nearly getting there. I want to ask would you not want to go for each way? Although, it's not a lot but for example Compton Prince and Seprani today were in third places and you would have gained a little back at least. I am just interested in your thoughts on this. Thank you. Good luck for your other bets tonight. richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 16, 2017 Author Share Posted February 16, 2017 5 minutes ago, vikki37 said: This is very interesting and great to see that it's nearly getting there. I want to ask would you not want to go for each way? Although, it's not a lot but for example Compton Prince and Seprani today were in third places and you would have gained a little back at least. I am just interested in your thoughts on this. Thank you. Good luck for your other bets tonight. At the moment I knew I would have to sacrifice to get results ....I could go ew or even place bet but returns are small and it increases stakes and I think if i can string a couple of winners together it will pay a decent amount hopefully ...up to now I've been fine tuning the maths and the standards and I'm rechecking as I go so I'm confident now the sheet is bang on ...that's the aim now ...I'll double up any winner onnthe next race and see where it goes ....I know its capable of winning big now it's settling down I've just got to prove it now ...that's the fun bit...non point winning small if I'm gonna prove speed ratings work its gotta be a big win ....at least 200 pts I reckon to prove it can be done ....and preferably a lot more ...everything up to now has just been fine tuning ....now it's rock n roll time vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikki37 Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 23 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: At the moment I knew I would have to sacrifice to get results ....I could go ew or even place bet but returns are small and it increases stakes and I think if i can string a couple of winners together it will pay a decent amount hopefully ...up to now I've been fine tuning the maths and the standards and I'm rechecking as I go so I'm confident now the sheet is bang on ...that's the aim now ...I'll double up any winner onnthe next race and see where it goes ....I know its capable of winning big now it's settling down I've just got to prove it now ...that's the fun bit...non point winning small if I'm gonna prove speed ratings work its gotta be a big win ....at least 200 pts I reckon to prove it can be done ....and preferably a lot more ...everything up to now has just been fine tuning ....now it's rock n roll time True. Big wins which you are capable of, of course as you have shown before in other posts. Personally, I'm not as brave as you and I go each way to be safe. I hope that this thread works out. It surely seems to be going the right way and all your effort will be worth it. Thank you too, whether it is a win or loss, it is always interesting to read and follow your posts. richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 16, 2017 Author Share Posted February 16, 2017 730 chelm Evening attire 92 Pearl spectre 94 Loyalty 99 Close race and very hard to call but it comes down to sheer value ...Evening attire is 5/1 and penalised 3lb whereas loyalty is9.5 and pearl spectre 12/1!! ...let's roll the dice at those prices Loyalty 5pts win 9.5 betfair Pearl spectre 5pts win 12/1 bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 16, 2017 Author Share Posted February 16, 2017 17 minutes ago, vikki37 said: True. Big wins which you are capable of, of course as you have shown before in other posts. Personally, I'm not as brave as you and I go each way to be safe. I hope that this thread works out. It surely seems to be going the right way and all your effort will be worth it. Thank you too, whether it is a win or loss, it is always interesting to read and follow your posts. I appreciate it .....I love the challenge of getting something right ....and if but was easy then everyone would do it and the only way you can hurt bookies is have an advantage over them....that's the aim...plus im like you I like a good read and follow interesting topics ..ivd learnt so much since i joined this board ...some goid some bad ...ivevhad some fantastic wins my biggest so far being the 1050 pts at cheltenham whichnim determined to beat lol ...but I've seen the improvement and had a lot of fun along the way son in determined to do better !!! vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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