richard-westwood Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 (edited) As you know I love messing about with speed calculations and although its horrendously difficult to get your head around sometimes I'd like to share to latest thing I've been playing with ....I'm mainly interested in you thoughts as to whether its feasible or ways it can possibly be improved ...either way makes for an interesting discussion this is purely for all weather at the moment as the going diff is minimal and for ratings purposes this is just showing how to compile a raw rating based on comparing to the average runner at the track First of all I set up the spreadsheet as above going from a1 to k1 with each field as so Distance furlongs Time in seconds Standard in seconds Difference between time and standard Difference converted to lbs Rating after above Weight carried +- 9stone (so if carried 9-10 you would put +10) Length down from Winner (0 if won ) Adj per length in lbs at distance ( ie 3.8 lbs per length at 5f..3.2 at 6f etc ) Final rating Thats that part done I'll elaborate next part in a moment Edited January 11, 2017 by richard-westwood BillyHills, asificare, Jimmy2shoes and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 11, 2017 Author Share Posted January 11, 2017 (edited) 24 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: Bear with me I'm doing this in stages so I'll try and go as clearly as I can For the example above I have inserted 10f in the dist (a2) ...120.13 in the time achieved by the winner (b2) with the standard set at 125.96...this is purely a random example for test purposes as I know wat results should be ... In field (d2) I programmed the function ..=sum (b2-c2) ...this works out the difference between winners time and standard time and displays in field d2 ..simple enough Now it gets very difficult ....field (e2) is the figure in d2 converted to lbs ...there are different methods to do this but I recently read a time form article which gave the formula ...=sum (d2*(1400-(900/a2))/average (b2:c2))....which I know looks horrendous lol and I don't quite understand the in and out but it converts the said figure to lbs and in the example I wanted 62lbs and it worked it out exactly so this formula goes in field (e2) So in the above example its saying the winner ran 62lbs better than the standard time so I've set the base rating of standard time and 9st at 100 (a horse carrying 9st and achieving standard time woukd rate 100)and all adjustments are made from this That's the first part down ...back in a bit Edited January 11, 2017 by richard-westwood Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 11, 2017 Author Share Posted January 11, 2017 So we have established that by winning by 5.83 secs faster than the standard the winner ran 62 lbs better than the base rating and if we add 100 to this it gives us the new rating in field (f2)....the formula being.. =sum (100-e2) Make sure you use - as this adds a negative value and results the figure being added correctly . Now we have our base rating I decided that weight must be taken into account ..,some people omit this and obviously each to their own but for me if two horses achieve standard time one carrying 9st and the other 9st10lbs then the latter has performed 10lbs better in my eyes so the rating should acknowledge that ...pretty common sense I think So in field (g2) you type in weight above 9st ...I.e if carried 9-10 you would type +10 and if 8-8 you would type -6 (minus important as it tells sheet to subtract) So in field (h2) we add the weight adjustment to the base ratings with the formula =sum (f2+g2) And finally not all horses win so the rating you have so far is for the winner of the race in question but what if you were 5th and 4 lengths back ?.....now different people tackle this problem in different ways ....but I strongly believe you have to adjust differently for each distance so I use 3.8lb per length at 5f ...3.2lb at 6f ...2.6lb at 7f and ..2lb at 1 mile So you type in lengths down in field (i2) and the adjustment per length figure for this distance in (j2) So for instance if this was 5f you would put 3.8 and if you had finished 4th 3lengths down you would type in 3 giving you 3.8 x4 =15.2 lbs less than the winner ....to me that seems simple enough rather than overcomplicating it Finally you adjust everything for this giving you your final speedrating in column (k2)....this is done with formula =sum (h2-(i2*j2)) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 11, 2017 Author Share Posted January 11, 2017 So you now have a rating for above and below standard adjusted for weight and lengths down ....not perfect but a Damn good starting point I think you'll agree .....at the moment I'm aiming this at all weather but I need to compile up to date standard times ....at the moment I've got wolv at 5f 61.20 6f 74.40 7f 87.90 8.5f 108.00 May be adjusted yet but they are Damn close so I'll make a start on others soon and post here that gives a good base for using in the speed rating chart Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 11, 2017 Author Share Posted January 11, 2017 Any comments criticisms welcome as I've put it forward as a base for discussion on this difficult topic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 I've given up doing speed ratings now but when I used to do them I used a different method to produce a rating at a common distance, ie a mile so if for instance a 6F race was 3 seconds slower than standard I would divide 3 by 6 to get seconds per furlong them times 8 to get seconds per mile ............in this case it would be 4 seconds per mile slower than standard a 10 furlong race that was 5 seconds slow would be 5 divide by 10 times 8 = 4 seconds per mile slow so both the above races would be 4 seconds per mile slow and would end up with the same speed rating to get a figure I would then need to convert 4 seconds to lbs........ I did this based upon a couple of assumptions, ie that a horse is about 9 feet long so 'a length' is about 9 feet, that a horse runs a furlong in about 12 seconds so you get a furlong = approx. 73 lengths and a horse runs approx. 6 lengths per second as near as dammit at 3lbs per length - 1 second = 6L x 3lbs = 18lbs So 1 second = 18 lbs use 100 as a base for standard time and subtract pounds for 'slower' than standard, add pounds on for 'faster than standard' in both the races above the winner was 4 seconds per mile slower than standard 4 x 18 = 72 subtract 72 from 100 both winners would get a rating of 28 you could then adjust this for weight carried if you wanted and work out beaten horses rating by distance beaten and weight carried Later on I developed a method of working out a combined class/going allowance but I'll leave that unless that topic crops up ! richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 Interesting stuff Richard. I have never bothered with speed ratings myself but often dabble with creating my own handicap ratings. I always find it interesting when people come up with different ideas on how to achieve a rating, whether it be Speed or otherwise and if the end result is that much different from what the experts publish. For me unless you are going to do something 'different' then its a lot of time spent for little gain. Will try and follow your examples but i feel a headache coming on!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 11, 2017 Author Share Posted January 11, 2017 33 minutes ago, Trotter said: I've given up doing speed ratings now but when I used to do them I used a different method to produce a rating at a common distance, ie a mile so if for instance a 6F race was 3 seconds slower than standard I would divide 3 by 6 to get seconds per furlong them times 8 to get seconds per mile ............in this case it would be 4 seconds per mile slower than standard a 10 furlong race that was 5 seconds slow would be 5 divide by 10 times 8 = 4 seconds per mile slow so both the above races would be 4 seconds per mile slow and would end up with the same speed rating to get a figure I would then need to convert 4 seconds to lbs........ I did this based upon a couple of assumptions, ie that a horse is about 9 feet long so 'a length' is about 9 feet, that a horse runs a furlong in about 12 seconds so you get a furlong = approx. 73 lengths and a horse runs approx. 6 lengths per second as near as dammit at 3lbs per length - 1 second = 6L x 3lbs = 18lbs So 1 second = 18 lbs use 100 as a base for standard time and subtract pounds for 'slower' than standard, add pounds on for 'faster than standard' in both the races above the winner was 4 seconds per mile slower than standard 4 x 18 = 72 subtract 72 from 100 both winners would get a rating of 28 you could then adjust this for weight carried if you wanted and work out beaten horses rating by distance beaten and weight carried Later on I developed a method of working out a combined class/going allowance but I'll leave that unless that topic crops up ! It's the same thing ...you have to adjust for distance ....I used the same method as you Trying to gauge lengths as a part of the race distance broken down in lengths but i had it as 8ft because i was imagineing myself lieing down by the average horse when i was atvthe track but I'd love to get a tape measure out !!...but its a way to do it certainly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 11, 2017 Share Posted January 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, BillyHills said: I always find it interesting when people come up with different ideas on how to achieve a rating, whether it be Speed or otherwise and if the end result is that much different from what the experts publish. For me unless you are going to do something 'different' then its a lot of time spent for little gain. I think that's really the important point In a sense it doesn't really matter if what you do is 'wrong' in some sense as long as it has an internal logic and you do the same thing for every race so your results are consistent within themselves and of course there's no point just replicating Topspeed figures or Timeform figures. If that's what you end up with save yourself the time and just use their figures Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 11, 2017 Author Share Posted January 11, 2017 Yes definately ....i spent ages coming up with the horse length distance theory ...I knew it should work because if you know wat a length is and the time you can work out the time for every horse and convert it to lbs .....simple ...I suppose if you know time and distance you work out speed and how fast each length is being covered and work it out that way ....so there are many different routes to the same place ....like you said its just being consistent and believing in your method Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 11, 2017 Author Share Posted January 11, 2017 Lingfield 5f 59.00 6f 71.35 7f 83.60 8f 96.80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 11, 2017 Author Share Posted January 11, 2017 Kemp 5f 6f 73.00 7f 85.83 8f 99.95 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 11, 2017 Author Share Posted January 11, 2017 Chelm 5f 59.64 6f 72.29 7f 85.60 8f 98.70 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 11, 2017 Author Share Posted January 11, 2017 Haven't got all standards because can't find enough results for south well and Kemp 5f but its a good start so I'll try and do an example race when I get chance Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 12, 2017 Author Share Posted January 12, 2017 Here's a nice example tomorrow 830 chelm Typed in info most are exposed and thrown out Louis vee 83 Upper Lambourn 66 All the rest have negliable ratings although getting lucky is at south well and I don't have brilliant figures for it but looks weak anyway tbh so the 100/30 with corals on Louis vee suddenly looks very interesting ...let's see What happens Louis vee 4 pts win 100/30 corals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 I always found the most difficult thing wasn't compiling figures but deciding how to use them. As I did this over several years (all weather) I could have 20 ratings for some horses ......... do you use the latest, the highest, the latest one over this CD What I tended to do was use the last two ratings and I would look for horses who's last 2 ratings were both higher than any of the last two of any of the other runners ............I'd consider those as 'bankers' richard-westwood and BillyHills 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 12, 2017 Author Share Posted January 12, 2017 (edited) Actually I've just noticed the ratings are wrong .,,, there was some sort of bug in the code that was miscalculating ...I think it was opennoffices fault cos its a bit buggy on the pad ...I've found out how to fix it but I've had to 're rate the race ...my big apologies but if your playing with something new things are bound to go wrong but at least I've noticed and rectified it Pleadings 90 ran course standard race 10st now 9st5 Louis vee 83 , Upper la mbourn 66 Big advantage is pleadings is 7/1 so no harm to Dutch the two ...again I do apologise its definately OpenOffice bug issues because you have to exit completely too after you save or it locks the sheet up too .,feckin thing ...but its definately fixed now Pleadings 4pts win 7/1 betvic ..added to Louis vee above Edited January 12, 2017 by richard-westwood Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 12, 2017 Author Share Posted January 12, 2017 7 hours ago, Trotter said: I always found the most difficult thing wasn't compiling figures but deciding how to use them. As I did this over several years (all weather) I could have 20 ratings for some horses ......... do you use the latest, the highest, the latest one over this CD What I tended to do was use the last two ratings and I would look for horses who's last 2 ratings were both higher than any of the last two of any of the other runners ............I'd consider those as 'bankers' I definately think last two most relevant with last given most priority especially if under near conditions unless something went wrong ....at the momentum just using then most relevant in last two runs or both if I'm unsure ...I think the best way to use the ratings is only play when there is a Biggish gap ...maybe when there are 8-10 pt gaps as that gives big margin for error in the standards or anywhere else and should strengthen your chances considerably ...like today race should be a good test ...pleading is clear then Louis vee is clear of the next .....Louis eve is on course whereas pleadings is Lingfield and both using my standards so it will be an interesting test Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 12, 2017 Author Share Posted January 12, 2017 Anyway .....everything's working properly now so lets see how it pans out .....who knows ..a few gold nuggets might just flash in the pan BillyHills 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 My strongest bets normally came from horses that have the best LTO rating and also has the highest rating overall somewhere in the last five starts. Any further back than that i found a little less useful. I hate these tips that says 'ran well 2 years ago and has a chance if returning to form' ??? I think this way you are on the horse with good current form plus on a good day you are also on a horse that has produced something the others have never done. If everything else adds up like Going, Track, Trip etc then we are on to a decent bet in my book. Keep it up guys, very interesting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 12, 2017 Author Share Posted January 12, 2017 715 wolv Friday Eljadaaf 118 Sophisticated heir 116 Plucky dip 110 Very classy race ...ejjadaaf made a big step forward last time and hard to know whether penalty will stop him after the ease of his win ...sophisticated heir has the better draw in 8 and Lewis Edmunds is claiming 7 so overall I think an ew bet on sophisticated heir at 11/2 is my favoured bet Sophisticated heir 3pts ew 11/2 bet365 DanV89 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 12, 2017 Author Share Posted January 12, 2017 Chelmsford called off ...snow so no bet today shame Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 13, 2017 Author Share Posted January 13, 2017 615 wolv Saturday Byrne's road 119 Jack's revenge 111 Magic city 109 Byres road won well last time and the time looks good ...has only been penalised 4lbs so that could be lenient ...Jack's revenge has a new 7lb claimer on board ....has only had 3 runs so unknown jockey and maybe a bit poor but in theory you can add the jockey allowance to the above rating giving 118 in theory so worth a note ...I'll take top two Byres road 3 pts win 4/1 lads Jack's revenge 3 pts win 7/1 bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 Lots of cracking reading richard and i take my Hat off to you or anyone for that matter that has the head for such puzzles, I only have a small handful of PL Members that i will read up on and You have always been one of them. Anything out the box that gives us a little edge over the greedy Bookmaker is always worth a go, we both know we cant win them all BUT it makes for a better game if we can greatly REDUCE that risk of losing our money. richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 14, 2017 Author Share Posted January 14, 2017 23 hours ago, richard-westwood said: 615 wolv Saturday Byrne's road 119 Jack's revenge 111 Magic city 109 Byres road won well last time and the time looks good ...has only been penalised 4lbs so that could be lenient ...Jack's revenge has a new 7lb claimer on board ....has only had 3 runs so unknown jockey and maybe a bit poor but in theory you can add the jockey allowance to the above rating giving 118 in theory so worth a note ...I'll take top two Byres road 3 pts win 4/1 lads Jack's revenge 3 pts win 7/1 bet365 Byres road beaten a head .. Bummer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 14, 2017 Author Share Posted January 14, 2017 845 wolv Saturday Complete stab in the dark this race Oberyn 81 adjusted 77 Warba 86 adjusted74 Trust the Indian 87 adjusted88 On paper this is a very poor race ...Oberyn will probably win this by default but trust the Indian ran a good time in defeat over 6f here ....doesn't look like 7f will suit so could be rubbish but he's so far in front its a shame not to risk the 16/1 especially as the race is so poor ... Trust the Indian 2 pts ew 16/1 generally Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted January 14, 2017 Share Posted January 14, 2017 The Cards will fall soon enough richard We all know it's a funny game Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted January 15, 2017 Author Share Posted January 15, 2017 (edited) 8 hours ago, Jimmy2shoes said: The Cards will fall soon enough richard We all know it's a funny game Yeah.lol...I'm just getting some mileage on the clock making sure everything works etc ....allseems fine so im going to make a strict rule to only concentrate on first 4 betting and to only play on the big differences ...i think that will be its strong point ...obviously horses dont reproduce their best two or three times in a row but i think if i concentrate only on the strongest hands then I think it can do well ....,so I'll start looking from Monday .......bring it on !! I'll keep a record of bets too so we can see what is going on and whether there's a way it can be improved ....who knows it might surprise us !! Last night's race was really good in fact that trust the Indian was top rated on other speed ratings I use too ....I noticed that afterwards so I can see the ratings are tuned right so ....I knew he was crap over 7f but it was a crap race anyway ...considering he was 5th and down the field and still came out top rated is fab really just shows the sheet is reading correctly so all's good Edited January 15, 2017 by richard-westwood DanV89 and Jimmy2shoes 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 feature races are always worth some study time, i can study them for hours, because of the prize money most trainers in these races are sending out something aiming for wages, ok on the AW it's never going to be the yards No-1 but picking up anything around £5000+ with a horse showing at home is always going to be snapped up by them. People / punters should never forget, animals in any given stable box are there to make money It's a money making ruthless business richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 22 hours ago, richard-westwood said: Byres road beaten a head .. Bummer Entered again for tomorrow / Today at Wolverhampton 2:55 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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