vikki37 Posted February 16, 2017 Share Posted February 16, 2017 11 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: I appreciate it .....I love the challenge of getting something right ....and if but was easy then everyone would do it and the only way you can hurt bookies is have an advantage over them....that's the aim...plus im like you I like a good read and follow interesting topics ..ivd learnt so much since i joined this board ...some goid some bad ...ivevhad some fantastic wins my biggest so far being the 1050 pts at cheltenham whichnim determined to beat lol ...but I've seen the improvement and had a lot of fun along the way son in determined to do better !!! Oh yes! Good luck with Cheltenham coming soon too! Looking forward to it! Hope you beat your record too! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 16, 2017 Author Share Posted February 16, 2017 1 hour ago, richard-westwood said: 730 chelm Evening attire 92 Pearl spectre 94 Loyalty 99 Close race and very hard to call but it comes down to sheer value ...Evening attire is 5/1 and penalised 3lb whereas loyalty is9.5 and pearl spectre 12/1!! ...let's roll the dice at those prices Loyalty 5pts win 9.5 betfair Pearl spectre 5pts win 12/1 bet365 2nd ...just getting pipped by somethin ...frustratin but on the scene again Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 16, 2017 Author Share Posted February 16, 2017 525 Newc Friday Just one bet today ...fairway to heaven recorded a very decent 100 last time and no reason why he can't reproduce that and if so thennwont be far away ... Fairway to heaven 10pts win 11/4 bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 17, 2017 Author Share Posted February 17, 2017 All the standards were based on an average runner at each track...approx class 4-5 but it was throwing up some anomalys ...big ratings when classier races were on so I've gone back to the drawing board and only used the classy class 2 races at each course....gives me a more accurate time of what the good horses have been achieving at each course then you can just compare the lower class from that .....I've even blind tested myself in that I can now predict what a truly run class 2 will be run in to about 0.2 secs -0.4 secs and ive proven it time and time again so I know the new standards are spot on .....just adjusts them to class 2 that's all South 5f 57.80 6f 74.50 7f 87.00 Ling 5f 57.10 6f 70.03 7f 82.50 8f 95.30 12f 147.53 Kemp 5f 58.78 6f 70.60 not much data so may need tightening 7f 85.00 8f 97.80 Chelm 5f 58.44 6f 71.00 7f 83.60 8f 97.00 Wolv 5f 60.00 6f 72.40 7f 86.47 8f 106.46 Newc 5f 58.20 6f 71.40 not much data 7f 84.50 98.00 vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 17, 2017 Author Share Posted February 17, 2017 715 wolv Royal celebration 62 Flying hope 62 adjusted 65 School run 66 adj 57 School run ran well last time but is penalised with a heavy burden here ...could still run well so dangerous but at 4/1 looks poor value against flying hope who has close collateral form with royal celebrationnwho a also is 4/1 but flying hope has Lewis Edmunds on board tonight and his 5lb claim could be the deciding factor in this weak race at 7/1 he's the value bet ew Flying hope 5pts ew 7/1 bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 17, 2017 Author Share Posted February 17, 2017 The Saturday double 330 ling Fast track 101 Doctor sardonicus 95 Fast track looks very well treated here and josephine gordon is on fire but doctor sardonicus isntnfar behind so rates a danger Fast track 4/1 Doctor sardonicus 9/2 745 Kemp Bargain buy 99 Summer icon 95 Bargain buy also looks well treated here and has 5lb claimer to help too only big negative is outside draw which leaves the door open possibly for summer icon if the fav fails Bargain buy 11/4 Summer icon 9/1 4x 5 pt win doubleswith paddyp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 18, 2017 Author Share Posted February 18, 2017 I've noticed that a lot of the "raw " runners seem to be running better ...mordin wrote about the effect of weight and whether or not to adjust etc ......the dilemma I have is this .....I was doing a thought experiment...imagine two races Race a horse 1 carrying 10st runs -0.2 standard Horse 2 carrying 9st runs also -0.2 standard Race b Horse a Carrys 10st runs -0.4 Horse b 10st runs -0.4 Let's say -0.2 for arguments sake equates to 95 ...Horse a in race 1 would be allocated a rating of 95+14 =109 Horse b race 1 would be 95 +0 =95 In race b Lets say 90 equates to 0.4 so horse a=90+14=104 Horse b 90 +14 =104 So even though horse 2 in race 1 ran an outstanding -0.2 ...on the table he is 14 pts behind the same horse he dead heated with and 9 pts behind horses he beat on the clock ??....how the he'll can that be right ? I'm wondering if it would be better to use an unadjusted rating based purely on converting the time achieved ....fir example In the first instance final table looks like this Horse a race 1 109 Horse 1 race 2 104 Horse 2 race 2 104 Horsec2 race 1 95 Whereas purely on time it would look Horse a race 1 95 Horse b race 1 95 Horsec1 racec2 90 Horse 2 race 2 90 Is this not a more true representation of each horses ability from a pure speed perspective ??.....you cant ignore weight but if they met again and lets say.. horse a racec1 was carrying 6lbs less real weight say 9-8 as opposed to 10st you could add a note as potential to run maybe a couple of points better ..possibly 97 ? Can you see what I mean ? vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 18, 2017 Author Share Posted February 18, 2017 (edited) Well ...as we are exploring every avenue lets test it out .....today's 405 ling Mercers 64 Endeavour 84 Mercers is fav here at 13/8 yet on the clock endeavour is far ahead and yet is 3/1 !!.,,,....well lets try it out and see what happens ...Juan horsepower thenhorse who just beat him that day went non to be narrowly beaten in a class 4 couple days ago so gives the form some precedence too Endeavour 10pts win 3/1 bet365 Edited February 18, 2017 by richard-westwood Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 18, 2017 Author Share Posted February 18, 2017 Also 745 Kemp as shown above...running the numbers Summer icon 82 Bargain buy 94 81 Make music 87 76 Summer icon is 13/2 and he beat bargain buy last time but that one blew the race starting last and meeting trouble at the business end ..still recorded a 81 but capable of much better as seen by his previous 94 and gets to race off same mark thanks to C laimers allowance ...so worthy fav make music recorded an 87 time before last but only 76 last time ...arguably can do better but no real reason for sudden drop so only ew appeal ....overall bargain buy should be capable of 90+ with cd perfect now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 18, 2017 Author Share Posted February 18, 2017 330 ling as above running the numbers Poyle vinny 93 Doctor sardonicus 92 Fast track 95 Poyle vinny is better at 5f and rating is South well .....Doctor sardonicus is fully capable of 92 today so ew appeal but fast track rating over today's 6f trip and drops a stone today so couple bonus points lets say 97 and has in fire j Gordon on board too so worthy fav in my eyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 18, 2017 Author Share Posted February 18, 2017 Even i know when to quit ...,.yet again went off fav well backed and shows nothing on course ..complete shite .....just been a catalogue of near misses and no shows even when backed off the board's.like today....,,.,may just be bad luck but can't waste any more time on it ..,,ridiculous ... ...,stick to the day job .....been interesting and I'll play with it at home but just shows you pitfalls of speed ratings and that's why I don't know anyone whosbmade any money using them Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 (edited) I hear ya fella i hear you. The Hannon stable is the yard that frustrates me the most, the very day we STOP backing his runners they start winning and at good prices, his Jockey set-up just now is strange and I've never rated the likes of Sean Levey, it's possible he's just acting on INSTRUCTIONS but i have him down as very weak in a finish. He had just the one ride last night at Kempton and that was also gambled and once again he got mugged on the line, i feel he came off the Gas thinking the race was in the bag and was over cocky, rides like that can just put me right off racing with pure frustration. http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/results/18-02-2017/kempton-park/result/762313/32red-on-the-app-store-maiden-stakes As you know richard sometimes things are just shite, and I'm not a punter like some on here that NEVER LOSE, bookmakers always have one or two aswell, they didn't just Win but they had the Tricast but they wont collect it cause they done it online. I respect the honesty of a punter when he or she says Things are just shite It's just a very strange game at times mate, we THINK we have checked and double checked everything in a certain race, then we get beat by the horse and stable that were bang OUT OF FORM because they tried the blinkers on this one time NOTHING in racing should surprise us richard, but it does and will keep surprising us, strange strange game full of frustrations https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8c9N5wu1AXw Edited February 19, 2017 by Jimmy2shoes vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 19, 2017 Author Share Posted February 19, 2017 59 minutes ago, Jimmy2shoes said: I hear ya fella i hear you. The Hannon stable is the yard that frustrates me the most, the very day we STOP backing his runners they start winning and at good prices, his Jockey set-up just now is strange and I've never rated the likes of Sean Levey, it's possible he's just acting on INSTRUCTIONS but i have him down as very weak in a finish. He had just the one ride last night at Kempton and that was also gambled and once again he got mugged on the line, i feel he came off the Gas thinking the race was in the bag and was over cocky, rides like that can just put me right off racing with pure frustration. http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/results/18-02-2017/kempton-park/result/762313/32red-on-the-app-store-maiden-stakes As you know richard sometimes things are just shite, and I'm not a punter like some on here that NEVER LOSE, bookmakers always have one or two aswell, they didn't just Win but they had the Tricast but they wont collect it cause they done it online. I respect the honesty of a punter when he or she says Things are just shite It's just a very strange game at times mate, we THINK we have checked and double checked everything in a certain race, then we get beat by the horse and stable that were bang OUT OF FORM because they tried the blinkers on this one time NOTHING in racing should surprise us richard, but it does and will keep surprising us, strange strange game full of frustrations https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8c9N5wu1AXw Lol....don't get me wrong I find the whole thing fascinating but its very time consuming and its something you have to plunge whole heartedly into.....I've never seen such a crap run of losers .....I really can't explain why so many horses canbe so really well backed and then.....nothing....doesn't make sense really so it really could just be a bad run of luck but im gearing up for Cheltenham and I'm beginning my calculations for the big handicaps there .....I really am going to bear all my computing power down on them with no stone left unturned and then sticktop two selections in doubles 5 big races 40 doubles ...all you need is two winners and your off to tenerife ....so that's what I'm working on at them moment and this was just a pleasant distraction .....I still think the raw rating is the way to go without adjusting for weight because that is a purer sense of what speed is rather than water it down ...I mean if two athletics meets were qualifying for Olympics and man a ran 10.1 and man b ran 10.1 but was 9lbs lighter than man a .....you wouldn't say he was any less especially if another race they all ran 10.3 ...yes you have to take it into consideration if man b is carrying carrying a 5lb weight next time but you wouldn't downgrade him to 4th !!! And worse still not let him qualify ? So I haven't forgotten it I'm just going to look for examples that are really far in front and see how they get on ..,by far i mean atnleast 10 pts clear on the raw rating vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted February 19, 2017 Share Posted February 19, 2017 The difference with Man A' and Man B' though richard is both can talk, horses cant, some horses are also very clever and when they get taken out the box at the races they just think........Feck this running flat out again round here i want to be in the field again eating grass Things will fall into place soon enough man Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 19, 2017 Author Share Posted February 19, 2017 (edited) That's it ....that's what ive been missing then.."grass" factor .?lol....anyway I'll try raw ratings only 345 wolv monday Jordonnsport 90 Robot boy 94 Boom the groom 97 Classy race but difficult to work out ....Boom the groom won this last year but Carrys 10lb more real weight today but we said we were going to back raw ratings so with the fav drawn 11 and other two drawn 1 and 4 they arevset up nicely to run big races even off adjusted weights ...roll the dice ...best value is robot boy ew ...14/1 is way overpriced Boom the groom 5pts win 4/1 betvic Robot boy 5pts win 14/1 bet365 Edited February 19, 2017 by richard-westwood Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 20, 2017 Author Share Posted February 20, 2017 (edited) 420 wolv Ebony and ivory 79 Pushkin museum 71 Doadeer 69 Pushkin museum is 2/1 fav but ebony and ivory completely messed up last time and is better judged on his 79 the time before over CD ....that looks very good form and priced up at 12/1 as we speak makes him look very tasty indeed we if he can bounce back to form Ebony n ivory 5pts ew 12/1 Stan james Edited February 20, 2017 by richard-westwood Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 21 hours ago, richard-westwood said: Robot boy 5pts win 14/1 bet365 that's more like it ! well done Richard.......... richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 20, 2017 Author Share Posted February 20, 2017 9 minutes ago, Trotter said: that's more like it ! well done Richard.......... Finally ....the raw rating is definately the way to go ..,,leave it pure because weight doesnt effect that much really .... mordin said that....dont overcomplicate things ....going back to the athlete scenario treat it like you were standing with a stopwatch and fastest is best ..,full stop ......75 pts returned thats evened things up a bit .... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 I wonder if maybe 'sprints' are the way to go with speed figures ..........logically the longer a race the more the result will be determined by tactics and the way the race is run and less by pure speed richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 20, 2017 Author Share Posted February 20, 2017 (edited) That's why I've only stuck and done standards up to 1 mile ...I think sprints are better but some mile races are speed orientated...I definately think adjusting for weight was ruining the rating ...I mean if a horse rated 90 raw ..,the computer would adjust to 82 if the horse carried 8-6 but the horse had run a fast time (90)then you've got another horse ran 88 carryingb9-5 ....he gets upgraded to 93 !! So now horse a was faster than horse b but ratings say horse b is 11 pts better ? Thats.....where the flaw is ....it's wrong ....if they meet on equal terms next time horse a will beat horse b ...simple as that ....you have to watch the revised weights thats all but if a horse is even raised a stone it only effects the..rating by a small amount ...not so worried about 420 ..commanche was rated 68 (4th) so two ofvtop 4 finished 1st and 3rd so that was just bad luck Edited February 20, 2017 by richard-westwood Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 20, 2017 Author Share Posted February 20, 2017 455 wolv Doctor Parkes 83 Indian affair 81 Indian affair was just beaten by commanche and that ones just won so Franked the form a bit ....Doctor Parkes ran faster than bare form suggests so looks overpriced at 9/1 Doc Parkes 5pts wi 9/1 lads Indian affair 5pts win 6/1 wil h Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikki37 Posted February 20, 2017 Share Posted February 20, 2017 22 hours ago, richard-westwood said: That's it ....that's what ive been missing then.."grass" factor .?lol....anyway I'll try raw ratings only 345 wolv monday Jordonnsport 90 Robot boy 94 Boom the groom 97 Classy race but difficult to work out ....Boom the groom won this last year but Carrys 10lb more real weight today but we said we were going to back raw ratings so with the fav drawn 11 and other two drawn 1 and 4 they arevset up nicely to run big races even off adjusted weights ...roll the dice ...best value is robot boy ew ...14/1 is way overpriced Boom the groom 5pts win 4/1 betvic Robot boy 5pts win 14/1 bet365 Congrats!! richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 20, 2017 Author Share Posted February 20, 2017 7 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: 455 wolv Doctor Parkes 83 Indian affair 81 Indian affair was just beaten by commanche and that ones just won so Franked the form a bit ....Doctor Parkes ran faster than bare form suggests so looks overpriced at 9/1 Doc Parkes 5pts wi 9/1 lads Indian affair 5pts win 6/1 wil h Billyoakes is 79 and i probably should have given him more respect as doctor Parkes best is 5f and billyoakes is 6f .,today's trip so will be interesting to see how this pans out now .....do you let them run with a higher rating regardless ?...or upgrade the lower rating because itsvtodays trip ? ..,interesting question Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 20, 2017 Author Share Posted February 20, 2017 340 south tues Lady nayef 89 Dungannon 88 Escalating 99 Escalating has been off for 100 days so can't be guaranteed to run his best race but can't be ignored ...if he fails then lady nayef is most likely to benefit ... Lacy nayef 4pts win 4/1 bet365 Escalating 4pts win 9/2 lads DanV89 and vikki37 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanV89 Posted February 21, 2017 Share Posted February 21, 2017 22 hours ago, richard-westwood said: 340 south tues Lady nayef 89 Dungannon 88 Escalating 99 Escalating has been off for 100 days so can't be guaranteed to run his best race but can't be ignored ...if he fails then lady nayef is most likely to benefit ... Lacy nayef 4pts win 4/1 bet365 Escalating 4pts win 9/2 lads 1st and 3rd well done Richard. richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 21, 2017 Author Share Posted February 21, 2017 23 hours ago, richard-westwood said: 340 south tues Lady nayef 89 Dungannon 88 Escalating 99 Escalating has been off for 100 days so can't be guaranteed to run his best race but can't be ignored ...if he fails then lady nayef is most likely to benefit ... Lacy nayef 4pts win 4/1 bet365 Escalating 4pts win 9/2 lads See unadjusted figures are the way to go ...thats where the problem was makes sense really ..leave them as pure as possible ...rest is just luck on the day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 21, 2017 Author Share Posted February 21, 2017 715 Kemp weds Oriental relation 86 Salvatore fury 85 Florencio 83 Steelriver 83 Very classy race by normal standards ...steelriver is fav .....oriental relation is about 5/1 and i am sorely tempted to go for that one but i just feel he looks a touch exposed whereas florencio 15/2 and Salvatore fury 20/1 just look better value and better treated making them a tentative choice ...salvatore fury vastly overpriced .....will be an interesting race Florencio 4pts win 15/2 bet365 Salvatore fury 4pts win 20/1 bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 21, 2017 Author Share Posted February 21, 2017 220 ling Menelik is clear in this race ...his rating of 83 over 6f last time was very good on the clock on a par with a class5 or even 4 race and this is only a 6 ....stays 7f so no reason he can't run a good race ...the 4/1 with Ladbrokes looks a decent bet based on that Menelik 4pts win 4/1 lads Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 22, 2017 Author Share Posted February 22, 2017 On 21/02/2017, 18:20:12, richard-westwood said: 715 Kemp weds Oriental relation 86 Salvatore fury 85 Florencio 83 Steelriver 83 Very classy race by normal standards ...steelriver is fav .....oriental relation is about 5/1 and i am sorely tempted to go for that one but i just feel he looks a touch exposed whereas florencio 15/2 and Salvatore fury 20/1 just look better value and better treated making them a tentative choice ...salvatore fury vastly overpriced .....will be an interesting race Florencio 4pts win 15/2 bet365 Salvatore fury 4pts win 20/1 bet365 Florencio wins ...rock n roll ...34pts returned vikki37, Jimmy2shoes and DanV89 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanV89 Posted February 22, 2017 Share Posted February 22, 2017 8 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: Florencio wins ...rock n roll ...34pts returned Keep them coming Richard!! richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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