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CzechPunter

October 10 - October 16

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Plenty of matches have caught my eye, perhaps way too many really.

Back Kurumi Nara to beat Monica Puig at 3.00 with Skybet

Nara is the underdog, there can be no doubts about that. That said, she's priced at 3.00 and I can't ignore those odds given that there are plenty of things speaking against Puig. Not only has she been in a bit of mess since the Olympics, but she also has a 0-2 record against Nara, so there might be some match-up problems as well (it's not even that hard to see why, as Nara can defend really well and draw unforced errors from Puig), so yeah, let's give Nara a go here I say.

Back Yulia Putintseva (-3.5) to beat Yafan Wang at 1.73 with Paddy Power

Wang has recorded some good results recently, but I don't see her troubling Putintseva too much if the world's number 33 plays reasonably well. Still a big gap between the two in terms of quality and Putintseva should also see Tianjin Open as a great opportunity for a really good run, so I expect her to be fully focused.

Back Mikhail Youzhny to beat Nicolas Almagro at 1.53 with Bet365

Somehow, it's very hard for me to believe that Almagro will have a chance for this one. Firstly, he's yet to beat Youzhny, with the record standing at 0-5 (and that's over more than just a couple of years). Secondly, he hasn't really done anything since the US Open, while Youzhny seems to have focused on the qualifiers for Shanghai. I reckon that the Spaniard will give it a go, but I'm happy to take the Russian at 1.53.

Back Pablo Carreno-Busta to beat Gilles Simon at 1.95 with BetVictor

Carreno-Busta has been on the rise since the start of the season, while Simon has been in decline all year long (well, there was the excellent match he played against Djokovic in the Aussie Open, but that's about it really), so I'll be taking the Spaniard here. He also had a great run in Beijing last week, beating Tomic and Gasquet before losing against Raonic.

Back Brian Baker to beat Mackenzie McDonald at 1.83 with Bet365

Fancy experience over youth here, despite McDonald's good runs in recent times. He hasn't had a great deal of rest and Baker might also be able to just outfox him with patient play and good point-building, so I'll take my chances with the talented veteran that hasn't shined only because of injuries.

Back Amir Weintraub to beat Federico Gaio at 1.80 with Betfred

Weintraub might have some small fatigue issues to deal with, but he's an actual hard court player with decent form, while Gaio is more or less a clay court specialist that has no form whatsoever. 1.57 for Weintraub would be reasonable, 1.80 is too much.

Back Henri Laaksonen to beat Mitchell Krueger at 1.80 with Betfred

On US ground, I'd fancy Krueger, but this is going to take place in Asia and Laaksonen has more experience with that, while Krueger has spent the last few months playing exclusively in the States, so there might be plenty of off-court issues as well. Laaksonen is probably also the better player of the two in all honesty.

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Zhang - Wang 12.00 Betfair

A very interesting clash between two girls who know each other very well. The H2H is 4:3 for Wang it the last win took by Zhang came last year. Wang is a very strange player. She may beet the top girls, but at the same time to loss from outsiders Wongteanchai (number 300 with odds close to 7 just few weeks ago). Zhang had an awful season, She was injured in March and never was able to recover. Now she took 2 months rest and will play at her home tournament, which may add some inspiration for her. Wang is huge favorite on that, but not with such odds.

 

 

 

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Zampieri - Polanski 4.00 Bet365

 

Both are known each other since years. H2H is 2:1 for Zampieri, but their matches were long time ago. Zampieri showed very nice form in his two last tournaments. He is one of the guys who never respect the ranking of his opponent. Caio made a great tournament on hard earlier this year beating some favorites. Polanski is struggling to find his best form, not sure if he will do it now against very fast and coming to the net Zampieri.

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Back Paolo Lorenzi to beat Milos Raonic at 6.00 with Ladbrokes

Can't see all that much in Wednesday's schedule in Shanghai, but I think that Lorenzi is worth a shot at a bookie that doesn't void retirements after first sets. Raonic didn't show up for his match against Dimitrov last week, so it's hard to say whether he's fit, and Lorenzi is a competent player on all surfaces. Not excellent, but competent, and he will beat Raonic if the Canadian isn't healthy. At 6.00, definitely worth a shot.

Back Taro Daniel to beat Saketh Myneni at 1.73 with Paddy Power

I have to admit that I don't know what happened in their previous match, which Myneni won with a truly bizarre scoreline, but I'd have Daniel as a bigger favourite here. He's improved a lot over the last year, much more consistent and actually very much in the hunt for finishing the year as the Japanese number two. Myneni is just average from what I've seen.

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The BIGGEST FIX ever in front of my eyes

Kyrgios fixed his defeat. He did id in enormous way, so everybody should understand it! It was NOT probably matter of money fixing. As i noticed it was rather leaving the tournament than any other reason. But it was RIDICULUS. 

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Good that Myneni finished the first set.

Back Grega Zemlja to beat Dennis Nevolo at 1.73 with Paddy Power

A competent tennis player against a thoroughly average one? Sure, I'll take the former at 1.73, especially since he had a good win in the first round. Nevolo can play tennis, don't get me wrong, but Zemlja is a level above him in my opinion.

Back Marcel Granollers to beat Mischa Zverev at 1.73 with Paddy Power

Whereas Granollers had to work hard to get here, Zverev was handed a win by Kyrgios, so let's not overrate his chances I would say. Granollers is the better player of the two and he also has a good H2H record against the German, so I'm happy to take the 1.73 that's on offer here.

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Back Daria Gavrilova to beat Angelique Kerber at 4.00 with BetVictor

Not getting a grip on things in Shanghai and I don't see anything there for Friday, so I'll go with this one in Hong Kong. It's essentially a value play based. Not only does Kerber seem to be trying new things in this tournament, but she also doesn't seem to be giving it her best in terms of energy, at least if the match against Chirico was anything to go by. Considering that Radwanska just withdrew due to the WTA Finals closing in and Kerber doesn't really need to chase any points either, Gavrilova is worth taking at 4.00 imo.

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Back Andy Murray (-5.5) to beat Gilles Simon at 2.00 with Paddy Power

I know that the handicap line looks quite big considering that Simon is in form and that he's also a very competent player, but he's an excellent match-up for Murray and that should show. Tiredness could also play a role - while Murray looked alright against Goffin, Simon needed some treatment already this week and the epic match against couldn't have done him much good either.

Back Caroline Wozniacki to win WTA Hong Kong at 1.91 with Ladbrokes

Fair enough price for Wozniacki here, she seems to be playing really well these days and she's a class above the rest of the field at this point really. She also has plenty of experience, so I'd expect her to be a big fav in the eventual finals. Jankovic is bound to be tired after the match against Cornet, Mladenovic is too hit-or-miss, and Gavrilova is a bit over-rated in these odds due to her win over Kerber.

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On 13.10.2016, 21:09:35, CzechPunter said:

Back Daria Gavrilova to beat Angelique Kerber at 4.00 with BetVictor

Not getting a grip on things in Shanghai and I don't see anything there for Friday, so I'll go with this one in Hong Kong. It's essentially a value play based. Not only does Kerber seem to be trying new things in this tournament, but she also doesn't seem to be giving it her best in terms of energy, at least if the match against Chirico was anything to go by. Considering that Radwanska just withdrew due to the WTA Finals closing in and Kerber doesn't really need to chase any points either, Gavrilova is worth taking at 4.00 imo.

Czech, thank you for this bet. It was painful to watch how much picks you missed whith the high stakes) I was waiting for this bet on this day.

I will try tomorrow Riske against Kuznetsova at 3.5

I will be happy and surprised if Sveta continue to play well consistently, it will be a star and the most stable run of her career. On the other hand Riske on a good run, she is progressing, it is perhaps the most important match for her at this season. In this situation, 3.5 very interesting to try.

Sorry for my english translate...

Edited by A_N

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