arsenalfh Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I'm doing some statistical analysis on the Portuguese league and have found that Porto are quite reliant on Andre Silva and Diogo Jota for goals. Their midfielders just don't chip in at all especially with Brahimi gone for the month to play for Algeria. Porto tend to dominate and win a lot of set pieces which interestingly makes the two centre backs 3rd and 4th most likely to score in my expected goals model. Sample size isn't that big and my model isn't going to be perfect but at 12/1 I think there's a fair bit of value there. Pacos de Ferreira v Porto - Marcano to score anytime @ 12/1 William Hill & Felipe to score anytime @ 12/1 William Hill Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_Ghost_ Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 hour ago, arsenalfh said: Great stuff there. Any chance of a key for the headings of the table? arsenalfh 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arsenalfh Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Thanks mate, looks good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malabgd Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 GD Estoril v Marítimo GD Estoril: Mano (7/0 d, doubtful), Lucas Farias (9/0 d) Marítimo: China (11/0 d) Vitória Guimarães v SL Benfica Vitória Guimarães: Miranda (10/0 m, doubtful), Marega (12/10 f, top scorer) SL Benfica: Grimaldo (8/2 d), Eliseu (3/0 d), Celis (2/0 m), Jiménez (10/5 f, 2nd top scorer) Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pulsar12 Posted January 16, 2017 Share Posted January 16, 2017 (edited) Chaves - Sporting (pt cup, tuesday) There is an enourmous pressure affecting Sporting at the moment. Nobody is happy with the team performances, and the president attitudes also does not help. On the last draw on saturday, just after the game finnishes , president gone straight into the dressroom and had a ranto against the players performance blaming them for the results, with players immediatly not agreeing and responding. This leaked into the media and on the next day, the same players gone to tell on controversial interview on club tv channel saying it was a 'normal' discussion. Its obvious the players are not the ones to blame for the team bad performance. Coach and president are. Chaves worth a try here, facing all the sporting drama. Chaves to win >5.85 (1-0 ft) Edited January 17, 2017 by pulsar12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arsenalfh Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 (edited) On 1/6/2017, 6:38:56, arsenalfh said: I'm doing some statistical analysis on the Portuguese league and have found that Porto are quite reliant on Andre Silva and Diogo Jota for goals. Their midfielders just don't chip in at all especially with Brahimi gone for the month to play for Algeria. Porto tend to dominate and win a lot of set pieces which interestingly makes the two centre backs 3rd and 4th most likely to score in my expected goals model. Sample size isn't that big and my model isn't going to be perfect but at 12/1 I think there's a fair bit of value there. Pacos de Ferreira v Porto - Marcano to score anytime @ 12/1 William Hill & Felipe to score anytime @ 12/1 William Hill Marcano scored this weekend. Worth keeping this up at least until Brahimi gets back who would slot in ahead of the centre backs. Starters from the Moreirense game: Edited January 17, 2017 by arsenalfh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pulsar12 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 (edited) Maritimo - Sporting Facing the current drama at Sporting the obvious bet goes for Maritimo at that price. Maritimo to win > 5.30 (2-2 FT) Benfica - Tondela Poor Tondela always as been taking points from big clubs, the exception is against Benfica :D. On the last occasions between these two is not that rare Benfica to score plenty on the first half. Benfica EH -2 HT > 5.30 (0-0 HT) Edited January 22, 2017 by pulsar12 StevieDay1983 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pulsar12 Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 (edited) Estoril - Sporting (25/02/2017, 18:15) Adrien is currently injured and will be out of the field for at least 6 weeks. And even with Adrien on the field on the last match against Rio Ave, Sporting was very lucky to come with a win because Rio Ave had plenty of missed chances. In addition to miss Adrien, another factor against them is the tense climate at the club. Now from Estoril, I was not expecting better results with the new coach, but the truth is that Estoril is improving and they have been unlucky in not getting better results lately. They will go with 2 important players out: Moreira (GK) and Mattheus (M), but even though the odds are good facing a fragile Sporting. Estoril win > 8.25 Estoril over 1,5 goals > 5.00 FT 0-2 Lost, incredible how Estoril looked like a team of retards today. Edited February 25, 2017 by pulsar12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malabgd Posted February 24, 2017 Share Posted February 24, 2017 SL Benfica v GD Chaves SL Benfica: López (7/3 d), Grimaldo (8/2 d), Fejsa (19/0 m), Horta (8/1 m) GD Chaves: Ricardo (16/0 first goalkeeper), Leandro Freire (18/0 d), Fábio Santos (6/0 d), Felipe Lopes (6/0 d), Mathaus (0/0 d), Ponck (16/0 m, on loan from Benfica), Hamdou Elhouni (8/1 f) Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pulsar12 Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 (edited) Moreirense - Boavista (Friday 03/03) Boavista haven't lost away last 6 matches (3W, 3D). Two of those draws were against Benfica (3-3) and Chaves (0-0). To note that Boavista has been improving in general with solid football. Last game against Porto they played good even without their key player Idris (suspended), but he is back for this match. Since January Moreirense has not impressing with disappointing home draws against Estoril and Feirense. AH+0 Boavista > 1.93 (RETURNED) FT 0-0 Edited March 10, 2017 by pulsar12 Icongene 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pulsar12 Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 (edited) Braga - Arouca (04/03 16:00 UTC) FT 3-1Braga win EH-1 > 2.30 WON seems that Arouca has returned to underperforming again, on the last match home match they let a 1-0 lead to become a 1-2 loss against belenenses, and they lost 2-0 against Chaves on the previous away match. The new coach 'M. Machado' may have played a role to this results, since his arrival they lost all two games. Braga has also bad results lately but, they are being unlucky in my opinion. May this game once for all be a win in style for them. Key Arouca player 'N Coelho' (D) is out, but 'Artur'(M) is recovered from injury and will play. For Braga, FWs 'Pedro Santos' is cleared from suspension and and 'Hassan' is recovered from injury, so they will be available. Porto - Nacional (04/03 18:15 UTC) FT 7-0Porto EH-1 > 1.30 WON Should be an easy win for Porto, they are currently on fire with Soares and Nacional has been conceeding many goals away while scoring very few, they are on relegation zone. Feirense - Benfica (04/03 20:30 UTC) FT 0-1Feirense to win > 9.25 LOST This is a tricky match, because Benfica has CL game next week. And I remember that one of the Benfica worst performances this season was before a CL match on the next days. It was a 2-1 defeat against Maritimo. So at this price I think it's worth the risk on Feirense which has 3 W on the last 6 matches at home. Sporting - Guimaraes (05/03 20:15 UTC) FT 1-1Guimaraes to win > 7.00 LOSTThe obvious value here is on Guimaraes with such great odds. Sporting playing weak football at the moment, and on top of that their key player Adrien is not playing because of injury. Even with Adrien playing on last games at home, they struggled to win against Feirense and got very lucky to win against Rio Ave. No reason to believe this time will be different. Guimaraes has been improving again since Marega return. Edited March 10, 2017 by pulsar12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pulsar12 Posted March 10, 2017 Share Posted March 10, 2017 (edited) Rio Ave - Moreirense (12/03 18:00 UTC) FT 3-2 This game screams like under 2,5. Both teams struggle to score recently. Also on every head to head match between this two teams, only 1 out of 6 games resulted in over 2,5. No team news to suggest any deviation. So even at 1,44 odds I think it there is some value. Under 2,5 > 1.44 lost Tondela - Sporting (11/03 20:30 UTC) FT 1-4 Sporting still without Adrien, and now without Alan Ruiz (one of the best Sporting performers lately). Tondela is poor team, but their best performances are against top teams. Value is all on Tondela, facing a fragile Sporting. Tondela to win > 9 lost Guimaraes - Estoril FT 3-3 Guimaraes should win this easy. Soares exit to Porto got significant impact on their goal scoring ability but they are now re-gaining momentum. key player Rafael Miranda is also back to available list and should play (probably not the full match). Estoril coach got sacked 2 days ago because of their poor performances. I don't see any other outcome than Guimaraes winning this one, at home, and with great support from their fans. Guimaraes to win > 1.50 lost Edited March 15, 2017 by pulsar12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filixlion Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Nacional - Paços de FerreiraWell in this game home team Nacional plays against Paços de Ferreira and the home team has one of the worst attacks in the Portuguese league with only 8 goals scored and 15 conceded in total in their field. Nacional dismissed his former coach Manuel Machado and hired Predrag Jokanovi, in early January, but in my opinion they played worse football than it was, and since this coach joining the club has not yet been able to win any match, with 5 draws and 4 losses and only 2 goals scored !!!!!. On the other hand, Paços have done most of their points at home, but away is a different story, they are 16º worst team in the league with only 13 goals scored and 27 conceded. they have not won a league match since 17/09/16!!! and in this time Paços only achive 2 draws... the rest has been only defeats !!! It will be dangerous to say who will win this game, this 2 teams play poor football and haven´t no offensive ideas but Paços could score a goal on counter attack... will be dangerous to predict who will win this game or whether it will be another draw for these two formations. One thing is sure on my mind, will be a surprise if there are many goals here.Pick: Under (-2.25) stake: 4/10 Odds: 1.83 Pinnacle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filixlion Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Benfica - Belenenses Benfica have been a strong team this year in the league specialy at home, they have not give many chances to their opponents to organize their attacks, put many pressure on the adversaries organizacion and in addition to that is a lethal team in the counter attack. Benfica has the second best offensive at home with 34 goals scored and 7 conceded, while on the other turn, Belenenses away record have only 10 goals scored and 13 conceded. The team from belém has been rising lately with some outstanding performances, but in my opinion it is not enough to win this benfica that has his pride hurt after the heavy defeat of 4-0 against dortmund in the champions league. I believe it is a one-way game with benfica looking for the goal from the first minute and it will not give many chances to Belenenses organise there offensive in the attack and get to reach their goal with danger many times.Pick: total corners Belém Under (-3.5) Stake: 3/10 odds: 2.04 1xbet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StevieDay1983 Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StevieDay1983 Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Here are the latest odds and ELO ratings (oh yes!) from Portugal! @Pipoca, wonder if you can give us any thoughts on these games? @pulsar12, @jamiedavies02, @KingSoccertips, @Filixlion, and @arsenalfh, do you guys have any tips as well? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pipoca Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 I took a acca treble Rio Ave to Score Anytime - 1st League Estoril and Draw - 1st League Vizela and Draw - 2nd League @2,90 GL StevieDay1983 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pulsar12 Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 (edited) I think this is the best value for the week: Guimaraes - Arouca (guima win EH-1 at 1.95): Guimaraes is expected to have full house of fans, and also all players are available. Guima is on a good run of results with 5W, 1D on the last 6 . Arouca cannot count with key player N. Coelho. their away results are very poor with only 1 point on the last 6 games. Also all of their losses away are with more than 1 goal difference (hence why i have gone for EH-1 instead). FT 1-0 - lost Edited May 7, 2017 by pulsar12 StevieDay1983 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pipoca Posted May 6, 2017 Share Posted May 6, 2017 Game about to start: Paços Ferreira Vs Feirense - FEIRENSE WILL WIN - MATCH FIXED Took @2,10 odds are crashing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pulsar12 Posted May 6, 2017 Share Posted May 6, 2017 3 hours ago, Pipoca said: Game about to start: Paços Ferreira Vs Feirense - FEIRENSE WILL WIN - MATCH FIXED Took @2,10 odds are crashing apparently there was a big bet from the chinese (again) , but this does not necessarily mean that there is a fix. it can be a simple gamble or money laundering. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pipoca Posted May 7, 2017 Share Posted May 7, 2017 (edited) 3 hours ago, pulsar12 said: apparently there was a big bet from the chinese (again) , but this does not necessarily mean that there is a fix. it can be a simple gamble or money laundering. Odds opened @5 and crashed @1,40. In Portugal the 3 places where you can legal bet cancelled all bets from that game. I already saw extended highlights from the game. Belive me was totally fixed.... that penalti convertion was just hilarious. Its the 2nd one this season where Feirense was involved, and both profitable Edited May 7, 2017 by Pipoca Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pipoca Posted May 7, 2017 Share Posted May 7, 2017 On 05/05/2017 at 10:49 PM, pulsar12 said: I think this is the best value for the week: Guimaraes - Arouca (guima win EH-1 at 1.95): Guimaraes is expected to have full house of fans, and also all players are available. Guima is on a good run of results with 5W, 1D on the last 6 . Arouca cannot count with key player N. Coelho. their away results are very poor with only 1 point on the last 6 games. Also all of their losses away are with more than 1 goal difference (hence why i have gone for EH-1 instead). Totally agree, and yesterday after Braga Lost, Guimarães are already qualified to next season Europa League. The stadium will be full, Arouca dont play for nothing and Guimaraes payers wants to celebrate with their fans that travelled a lot this year to support the team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pulsar12 Posted May 7, 2017 Share Posted May 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Pipoca said: Odds opened @5 and crashed @1,40. In Portugal the 3 places where you can legal bet cancelled all bets from that game. I already saw extended highlights from the game. Belive me was totally fixed.... that penalti convertion was just hilarious. Its the 2nd one this season where Feirense was involved, and both profitable i also saw the highlights and didnt find anything suspicious. feirense got lucky in getting the win. the penalty hit the post, what is suspicious about this? yes it is strange that the same chinese guys put money on feirense... but i dont believe it was fixed... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pipoca Posted May 7, 2017 Share Posted May 7, 2017 15 hours ago, pulsar12 said: i also saw the highlights and didnt find anything suspicious. feirense got lucky in getting the win. the penalty hit the post, what is suspicious about this? yes it is strange that the same chinese guys put money on feirense... but i dont believe it was fixed... we wanted to to miss, and hit the post... lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StevieDay1983 Posted May 11, 2017 Share Posted May 11, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StevieDay1983 Posted May 11, 2017 Share Posted May 11, 2017 @pulsar12 and @Pipoca, you have become our resident Portuguese football experts. What are you thinking for these matches? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pulsar12 Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 Feirense - Sporting: bet on feirense if they get behind live if odds get high enough (>30 for win; >6 for 1X). sporting will be stronger than the last match since gelson is fit. but beware of feirense!! this team usually adapts very well to opponents by the second half and has been doing great comebacks lately. Benfica - Guimaraes: this match decides the championship if benfica win. i expect a very good match because of all the pressure benfica, and also motivation on guimaraes players to show off. i think benfica will make some mistakes on defense but will also score goals. there is also a possibility of guimaraes snatching a win since they are playing good an winning while benfica players may accuse the pressure due to the importance of the match. my bets will be guimaraes over 1,5 (>4,10) and guimaraes win (>10,5). Porto - Paços: Porto has been inconsistent again. if you get odds over 20 for Paços I think are worth a try. StevieDay1983 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TyperExpert_PL Posted May 14, 2017 Share Posted May 14, 2017 AD Fafe - Varzim 14.05 2017, 17:00 Pick :AD Fafe Odd:1,72 3for3 Varzim - AD Fafe 2: 1 (0: 1) 21.12.2016 Varzim - AD Fafe 1: 0 (0: 0) 24.05.2015 AD Fafe - Varzim 2: 1 (0: 0) 29.03.2015 Varzim - AD Fafe 2: 1 (0: 0) 06.03.2013 AD Fafe - Varzim 1: 0 (0: 0) 14.10.2012 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TyperExpert_PL Posted May 15, 2017 Share Posted May 15, 2017 On 14.05.2017 at 1:20 PM, TyperExpert_PL said: AD Fafe - Varzim 14.05 2017, 17:00 Pick :AD Fafe Odd:1,72 3for3 Varzim - AD Fafe 2: 1 (0: 1) 21.12.2016 Varzim - AD Fafe 1: 0 (0: 0) 24.05.2015 AD Fafe - Varzim 2: 1 (0: 0) 29.03.2015 Varzim - AD Fafe 2: 1 (0: 0) 06.03.2013 AD Fafe - Varzim 1: 0 (0: 0) 14.10.2012 Ft: 2:1 $$$ :_) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StevieDay1983 Posted May 19, 2017 Share Posted May 19, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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