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Monthly Naps Competition, Saturday 30th April 2016


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Just a reminder; From the rules thread

 

  • Selections are first come first served on the final day of any month. Any duplicate selections will count as a loser and a point will be deducted from your total. Also posting NR's on purpose will be deemed as trying to gain an advantage against the spirit of the competition and will result in losing the point.
  • The onus is on the author to check if their selection has already been chosen.

 

Good luck, play fair:ok

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Hex 5.55 - Central Flame - win at 9/4 bog wm hill

Yeah !........jump racing is back.......:lol

Novice chase over around 20F

We've got an obvious favourite here, Keltus,  with Nicholls and Sam T-D travelling all the way to Hexham for one runner. You'd think it would have to be nailed on

However.......I'm really not sure if he's a natural chaser. He appears not to have a great deal of inherent stamina and he's not been a good jumper in his 4 chases to date. These fences are easy so he might get away with the jumping but the stamina worries me.......particularly with the stiff uphill finish. I'm just not sure he's going to get home

My selection, in any case, is rated higher than Keltus, is a course winner over hurdles, and has also won at Carlisle, another stiff finish. He's finished a close up 2nd in his last 2 chases, acts on the going and his usual rider gets 5lbs

 

 

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3:45 Newmarket : Stormy Antarctic 8/1 BetVictor 

 

my selection won the Craven Stakes over the course a distance acouple weeks ago in good style. Connections didn't fancy him that day, they thought he'd need the run and the ground would be too soft. As it happened he looked well and handled the ground fine. He'll go on any ground and will see the trip out very strongly as he'll likely go up to 1m2f after. with some likely improvement he is the horse of the moment to beat. Air Force Blue brings the best 2yo form but hasn't raced for 200 days and could get found out over the last furlong. 

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3.45 Newmarket: Air Vice Marshal @ 40/1 Bet365

I'm slightly concerned about the tongue-tie on Air Force Blue and think the stable's second string offers better value. The ground is a bit of a worry for him but it seems to dry quickly right now so it might be okay. AVM is surely one with potential and should be a better 3yo. Can see him run well.

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6.45 Doncaster - Another Angel @ 5/2 Paddy Power

This one was a massive eye catcher on debut when he ran as green as any 2 year old I've seen this season yet finished a close enough 3rd. He was a big gamble that day and clearly possesses a lot of ability on what he showed on his first start. Michael Dods has his 2 year olds very forward and I think one of the newcomers would have to be pretty good to beat him.

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45 minutes ago, robertob said:

3.45 Newmarket: Air Vice Marshal @ 40/1 Bet365

I'm slightly concerned about the tongue-tie on Air Force Blue and think the stable's second string offers better value. The ground is a bit of a worry for him but it seems to dry quickly right now so it might be okay. AVM is surely one with potential and should be a better 3yo. Can see him run well.

Herald The Dawn was my pick e/w at 33s but I think this one is interesting. The thing I'm struggling with is figuring out if he's in here because he's working well or just as a prep because all the talk was of Air Force Blue being the stable's only representative.

Good luck!

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2:30 Newmarket Lancelot Du Lac @ 16/1 bet365 e/w

Lancelot Du Lac.....from Dean Ivory yard the 6yo has won eight races from 5f to 7f on good and good to soft ground and on the all-weather, He ran 36 days ago at Lingfield AW 6f when he ran 2nd after a couple of months break probably with this race in mind blow the cob webs off,

Jockey Robert Winston has been in saddle last 6 times and has only produced one bad run out of frame with him winning 3 times a 2nd and 3rd place finish and is in saddle again today

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On 4/30/2016, 12:19:57, arsenalfh said:

Herald The Dawn was my pick e/w at 33s but I think this one is interesting. The thing I'm struggling with is figuring out if he's in here because he's working well or just as a prep because all the talk was of Air Force Blue being the stable's only representative.

Good luck!

That were exactly my thoughts too. I'm not much surer afterwards. But one way or the other, it looked an excellent prep run and I was quite happy with the AVM performance. Plenty to come from this lad I suspect. 

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