Calculus' Flat Season 2014

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Got two that I really like tomorrow, going to back one now because I don't think the price will improve: 3:20 Nottingham - Heartsong (9/1 Bet365) 2.25pts Win Will wait to see how the market develops for the other horse..

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

3:20 Nottingham - Heartsong (9/1 Bet365) 2.25pts Win

Won well at Doncaster on penultimate start despite meeting massive trouble in running. That marked her down as a potentially very well handicapped individual for me. The fact that she was running off a mark of 84 around this time last year serves to add some credence to that idea. A lot of that drop in the weights was due to some weak efforts on the AW but she has never won on that surface and is probably several pounds better on turf. My selection travelled very strongly at Goodwood last time out when finishing second in a similar standard of race and races off the same mark tomorrow. Louis Steward is able to claim 5lbs here and with the Gallagher string in decent nick I think she makes a lot of appeal at 9/1 and I would be surprised if that price lasts much longer.

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Second one: 7:10 Ripon - Emaad (5/1 Bet 365) 2.75pts Win

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 From prior to Emaad being a non runner when racing was called off at Beverley last week:

8:30 Beverley - Emaad Produced a few noteworthy runs without winning as a two year old, most significantly when 2nd in a maiden at Chester and then 4th in a Newmarket nursery for which the form has worked out quite nicely since. Things then went pear shaped in a big way as he was stone last and beaten a long way on his two subsequent runs as a juvenile, hard to know what the root cause of those poor performances was but may well have just seen enough of the racecourse for one year and was in need of a break. I think his come back run around 6 weeks ago was much more like it and I think he ran a much better than the finishing positions suggest. That was at tomorrows venue over a furlong further and he led till around the furlong pole on that occasion, so the drop back to a mile looks a good move on that basis and he should be able to get to the lead early on in the small field he faces tomorrow. What I really like about the race he ran in last time out is the way the form is working out, as 6 winners have already come out of the race, including two of the horses that were behind him. My selection is now dropped down another 1lb to a mark of 67 and I think that should not be insurmountable at all. I think he only really has the favourite to beat, and that one is plenty short enough in the betting, although he could be well in on his handicap debut, at around 5/4 he makes no real appeal. The only other potential threat is one of either the Fahey or Easterby runners showing big improvement from 2 to 3, but neither of them have shown any sign of the level of ability that would be needed to win here. I don't like the look of the other two (Eddiemaurice or Needless Shouting) at the current odds, they are priced up more or less the same as my selection and look to have far less potential to improve on their current marks (although Eddiemaurice has dropped a lot in the weights it is probably with good reason as he looks bang average).

Not a whole lot to add to that, there was some money about for him before racing was abandoned on that occasion which increases confidence slightly, this race does not look a whole deal tougher than then in my opinion and he can go very close if putting his best forward.

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

I've had a couple of bets in The Oaks today: Tapestry (25/1 SkyBet - NRNB) 1pt Win Marsh Daisy (14/1 Betfred) 1pt Win Reasoning later (maybe)

Thankfully I did Tapestry with a NRNB bookie as she is not in the final decs.

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

Second one: 7:10 Ripon - Emaad (5/1 Bet 365) 2.75pts Win

And another non runner, now heavy ground at Ripon this evening

[thecurlyone1]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

Got two that I really like tomorrow, going to back one now because I don't think the price will improve: 3:20 Nottingham - Heartsong (9/1 Bet365) 2.25pts Win Will wait to see how the market develops for the other horse..

just held on ..but they all count :clap

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Thanks mate, happy with that, the rule 4 decimates the winnings a bit but still a healthy return! Was sure she would get caught close home but young Louis Steward did well to keep her going to the line.

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Nice performance from Heartsong today as she showed good battling qualities to defy the strong challenge of Tagula Night. Both the second and third had been well backed on the early prices so it might be a slightly better performance than the bare form. She might get away with a relatively small hike in the weights though and may be of interest again if the ground stays on the soft side. Biggish Rule 4 but still better than SP. +13.16pts on the day Don't really like the look of much of the racing tomorrow so might give it a miss, will take another look later.

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 One for tomorrow on the AW: 9:00 Kempton - Whipper Snapper (9/1 SkyBet) 1pt Win

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

One for tomorrow on the AW: 9:00 Kempton - Whipper Snapper (9/1 SkyBet) 1pt Win

Looked to be finishing last year a bit too high in the weights but has continued to progress nicely in two starts this season, winning over tomorrows C&D off a 3lb lower mark before staying on strongly over a furlong shorter in a higher grade back on the turf at Lingfield. Drops back down in grade and back up to a mile tomorrow, but probably more importantly he returns to the poly track at Kempton he has 2 wins from 3 starts at the course. Although he only won by a short head here on his penultimate start the form is working out well and with Oisin Murphy claiming 3lbs he is effectively off the same mark as when winning that race. Looks guaranteed to run a big race in my opinion.t

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

I've had a couple of bets in The Oaks today: Tapestry (25/1 SkyBet - NRNB) 1pt Win Marsh Daisy (14/1 Betfred) 1pt Win Reasoning later (maybe)

Reasoning: Money back on Tapestry, but Marsh Daisy is in the line up and incredibly is still available at 14/1 at the moment - some more rain would be ideal as it looks like it may well be very close to good ground by this time tomorrow. I was really impressed with this filly's effort in the Height Of Fashion stakes when making short work of a decent field on only her 3rd career start. A few winners of that race have gone well in the Oaks with Snow Fairy being the most significant example. The trainer went very close in the Oaks with Shirocco Star a few years ago and I think it is telling that connections have stumped up the cash to supplement this filly; Hughie Morrison is not the type of trainer to tilt at windmills and I don't think they would have done that if they did not think she had a realistic chance. I think she looks like a potentially very special filly and is well overpriced at 14s.

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

One for tomorrow on the AW: 9:00 Kempton - Whipper Snapper (9/1 SkyBet) 1pt Win

Was well backed on course but never really threatened, don't think I would have picked the winner if I had 10 selections... -1pts on the day

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 On to tomorrow and a speculative one: 3:20 Epsom - Brocklebank (40/1 Ladbrokes) 0.75pts Win

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 One more: 2:10 Epsom - Charles Camoin (14/1 Bet365) 1.25pts Win

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 And final one for tomorrow: 5:20 Epsom - Almargo (12/1 Bet365) 1pt Win

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

On to tomorrow and a speculative one: 3:20 Epsom - Brocklebank (40/1 Ladbrokes) 0.75pts Win

Super short reasoning because I am work. Brocklebank come with a lot of risk as he has to bounce back from two shocking efforts, but I think he looks interesting on the basis of some of his previous form at a massive price. Those two runs came off a 7lb higher mark than today which was given to him on the basis of an unlucky second at Lingfield when behind the classy George Guru. My selection has shown a liking for courses with a switchback layout and has a win and a second from three runs at Epsom. He has run very well on the back of rather discouraging efforts in the past and although this is a tough race I think he is capable of outrunning his odds if getting some luck in running.

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

One more: 2:10 Epsom - Charles Camoin (14/1 Bet365) 1.25pts Win

Relatively lightly raced for a 6 year old handicapper and is probably handicapped to win here if showing his best form. My selection spent most of last season a few lbs too high in the weights after winning at Ascot on his seasonal debut (off 2lbs higher than today). His two runs so far this season have been respectable enough, over an insufficient distance on the first instance and then behind several of today's rivals of this C & D. He now enjoys a significant swing in the weights with most of those rivals and would probably only need to improve on that performance by a few pounds to have a realistic chance here off what is the lowest he has been rated since winning at this meeting in 2011.

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

And final one for tomorrow: 5:20 Epsom - Almargo (12/1 Bet365) 1pt Win

I am willing to ignore this ones last two runs on bad ground as I do not think he showed his true running on either occasion. He was progressive in minor races on the AW over the winter and ran well first time up on turf when fourth in a competitive handicap at Musselburgh. He is now 5lbs lower in the weights than was the case at Musselburgh. As a prominent racer he should be able to stay well out of any trouble in running here and I think De Sousa excels on these type of horses, if he can get him into a good rhythm up front he could be hard to pass.

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Two in "The Dash" tomorrow: 3:15 Epsom - Barnet Fair (25/1 Coral) 1.25pts Win 3:15 Epsom - Even Stevens (12/1 Paddy Power) 1.75pts Win

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 From the ridiculous to the sublime today. Charles Camoin never got involved, can't blame Spencer for this (for a change). Brocklebank was held up in last and remained there. Marsh Daisy traveled well to a point but was soon in trouble after turning in for home and was eased off, she wants soft on breeding and her action looks to suggest the same, she may well get put away for an Autumn campaign now - I thinks she's worth another chance. Almargo made every yard under a masterful ride from SDS, he was definitely a well handicapped horse but I still thought De Sousa nailed it from the front - there was a 15% Rule 4 but still comfortably better than SP. +7.20pts on the day

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 On to tomorrow, and I already have two in the dash and Kingston Hill in the Derby at 16s ante post. Struggling to make head or tail of the other races on the card at Epsom, but will back one at Mussleburgh now: 3:30 Mussleburgh - Latin Charm (10/1 Coral) 1.5pts Win

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Last two for tomorrow: 8:25 Lingfield - Emaad (9/1 Bet 365) 1.25pts Win 5:40 Musselburgh - Red Baron (11/2 BetVictor) 1.75pts Win

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Apologies for the lateness but I have talked myself into one other interest today: 5:20 Doncaster - Senafe (14/1 SkyBet) 1pt Win Should be able to post reasoning for all selections around midday

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

3:15 Epsom - Even Stevens (12/1 Paddy Power) 1.75pts Win

By the sounds of things the rain has arrived at Epsom and it remains to be seen just how testing it will get but any softening of the ground is good news for Even Stevens, as all his best efforts on turf have been on very soft ground. He is now only rated 6lbs higher than when winning and finishing second on a soft surface at the end of last season, his continued to progress on his favoured AW surface over the winter and looks potentially well weighted here with a 7lb claimer on board. Looks sure to be on the pace from a plum draw and could be hard to pass.

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

3:30 Mussleburgh - Latin Charm (10/1 Coral) 1.5pts Win

Has run well in two starts so far this season. First when second to a subsequent winner over 2 furlongs shorter and then third when not getting a whole load of luck in running over today's 12f trip. I don’t think there is anything wrong with either of those efforts and he is definitely unexposed over what looks likely to be his optimal distance. There’s certainly several viable alternatives in here but at the prices I think Latin Charm represents the best value and I would be surprised if he cannot go close on ground that is likely to suit.

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

5:20 Doncaster - Senafe (14/1 SkyBet) 1pt Win

Has been set some stiff tasks since being well beaten in a competitive handicap at Royal Ascot off a 10lb higher mark. Has not really shone in any of those appearances but has dropped back down to a more realistic handicap mark as a result and is now set what is probably her most achievable task for a long time. She is a decent filly on her day and managed a third in the German 1000 Guineas on soft ground last season. A lot of the potential competitors for the lead are now non runners and I think she can outrun her odds with a talented claimer taking off 5lbs.

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

8:25 Lingfield - Emaad (9/1 Bet 365) 1.25pts Win

I've now backed Emaad on a couple of occasions and he has been withdrawn due to soft ground after being very well backed on each. He now switches to the AW and has been very popular in the market again. I personally do not feel as confident today as I would have liked to see him dropped down to a mile and kept on turf. Nevertheless he looks to be highly rated judging by the money there has been for him, the form of his previous run looks rock solid and the Johnston yard look to be hitting form . Rest of reasoning is more or less as previously written:

8:30 Beverley - Emaad Produced a few noteworthy runs without winning as a two year old, most significantly when 2nd in a maiden at Chester and then 4th in a Newmarket nursery for which the form has worked out quite nicely since. Things then went pear shaped in a big way as he was stone last and beaten a long way on his two subsequent runs as a juvenile, hard to know what the root cause of those poor performances was but may well have just seen enough of the racecourse for one year and was in need of a break. I think his come back run around 6 weeks ago was much more like it and I think he ran a much better than the finishing positions suggest. That was at tomorrows venue over a furlong further and he led till around the furlong pole on that occasion, so the drop back to a mile looks a good move on that basis and he should be able to get to the lead early on in the small field he faces tomorrow. What I really like about the race he ran in last time out is the way the form is working out, as 6 winners have already come out of the race, including two of the horses that were behind him. My selection is now dropped down another 1lb to a mark of 67 and I think that should not be insurmountable at all. I think he only really has the favourite to beat, and that one is plenty short enough in the betting, although he could be well in on his handicap debut, at around 5/4 he makes no real appeal. The only other potential threat is one of either the Fahey or Easterby runners showing big improvement from 2 to 3, but neither of them have shown any sign of the level of ability that would be needed to win here. I don't like the look of the other two (Eddiemaurice or Needless Shouting) at the current odds, they are priced up more or less the same as my selection and look to have far less potential to improve on their current marks (although Eddiemaurice has dropped a lot in the weights it is probably with good reason as he looks bang average).

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

5:40 Musselburgh - Red Baron (11/2 BetVictor) 1.75pts Win

Red Baron is another horse I have backed a few times so far this season but he has failed to really fire in two runs since winning very impressively at Doncaster on soft ground. The first of those aforementioned runs is probably best overlooked as he just did not fire at all on that occasion despite having been very well backed. The run last time out at Chester was a bit more like it and the form looks good in the context of this race, it would be dissapointing if my selection were not able to go very close off a mark of 85 at course where he has an excellent record.

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 First unprofitable Saturday for the thread, not much went my way today... Thought Emaad might save the day but he got caught close home, back down in trip and on a more suitable course he should be winning very soon although the cat is out of the bag now by the looks of things. -9.5pts on the day