Calculus' Flat Season 2014

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Reasoning as below, going to try and keep it concise tonight: 2:05 Haydock - Discussiontofollow Not much more to add to the reasoning provided before he was a non-runner today other than to say this looks a slightly easier assignment and I had him in as 4/1 favourite so I have increased the stake accordingly. Could yet be a non-runner again if the rain arrives as he has now been withdrawn twice due to soft ground. 2:05 Haydock - Go Far Backed this one as a saver mainly because I am not 100% if the high drawn horses will be at an advantage and they may break into two groups. This one is likely to be up with the pace however the race pans out. He was very progressive over the winter on the AW and I thought he ran a pretty good race at 50/1 when finishing in mid division in a similar race to this at Newmarket after leading for a lot of the way and he had the current favourite for tomorrows race, Out Do, behind him there to boot (admittedly that one did find some trouble in running). He was backed into favourite for a slightly weaker race than this at Warwick a few days ago before racing was called off so I think the yard must think this mark is still workable, soft ground should not be a problem and he has a squeak at a rewarding price. 2:50 Catterick - Hadaj It's getting towards last orders in the last chance saloon with this fellow after I have backed him on the last two occasions but I think he is well worthy of a significant bet tomorrow. The step up to 7 furlongs looks likely to suit after he has been outpaced at a crucial stage on the last two runs over a furlong shorter. On the last occasion he was a very well backed 7/4 fav and I think he could well have got a bit closer with a more forceful ride, the form of that race is working out relatively well with Avon Breeze and Adams Ale (both of which I backed incidentally) looking unfortunate not to win on their next runs. I haven't seen enough of 7lb claimer Jack Garrity to determine whether he is good value for his claim or not but he has had a few rides for Andrew Balding and he usually knows a good apprentice when he sees one. There doesn't look to be anything in the race with any real unfulfilled potential and I think the form of either of his last two runs puts him in with a very big shout here and I had him a couple of points shorter in the betting. 4:20 Haydock - Black Schnapps This was very much a no bet race for me at first glance as it looks quite trappy with several unexposed 3 year olds with recent winning form. But I couldn't ignore Black Schnapps at the current odds of 9/1 as it seems extremely generous for a horse who won as easily as he did last time out, even in the context of this race. My selection has been very impressive on both starts on turf thus far this season winning at Doncaster and Salisbury. He was risen 7lbs for an easy 2.75 length victory at Doncaster but looked to progress again when sauntering in by 5 lengths the next time out. On the basis of that there could still be some progression to come and the 9lbs he is raised here may well not be enough to stop him. The slight increase in trip is a bit of an unknown as his half brother, Hi There, doesn't really get 12 furlongs, but my selection has a lot more stamina on the sire's side and he has looked to gallop all the way to the line on his two previous victories and he should not be found wanting for any tactical speed if this becomes a bit of a sprint in the last few furlongs. Any rain would just further enhance his chances and I think 9/1 is definitely too big. 4:40 Goodwood - Slip Sliding Away Record at Goodwood reads 1-1-2-9-1-4 and although he has never won on soft ground he has run well enough on it often enough to make me think that there is no problem with the conditions he is likely to get tomorrow. The form of his most recent run at Ascot looks decent enough for the grade with the winner going in again today and Commanche, who was behind him going close when 2nd at Doncaster recently. It seems reasonable to expect a couple of lbs improvement for the return to his favourite course and the handicapper has been quite kind in dropping him down by 1lb to a mark of 79. That's 4lbs above the mark he won off at Goodwood in September last year and is the same mark that he arguably would have won off on his next run after that win (again at Goodwood) had he not been desperately unlucky in running and not getting any breaks. I like the fact that Adam Kirby (won on him before) keeps the faith and I think he looks nailed on to run a big race. 3:40 Beverley - Sea Wolf A hot looking race for 2 year olds and we may be seeing at least a couple of these again at Royal Ascot. While I am reluctant to back young horses at this time of the year, I was very impressed with Sea Wolf's debut at Doncaster and I think he looks like a potentially smart horse. Although the winning margin was only a head on that occasion I thought he was probably worth a good bit more than that and the manner of his win was particularly impressive. My selection moved travelled very well throughout the race coming through to challenge the short priced favourite Beacon (who has won since) at the halfway point and showed a high cruising speed as he basically galloped him into the ground, when he was asked to go on and win his race he showed a very willing attitude and took a length or two out of the field after getting one tap of the whip, it was probably inexperience more than anything that allowed the second horse to get so close but my selection never really looked like getting beat. It's hard to form a strong opinion on any of the runners here with such little form to go on but I do not think that my selection deserves to be 6th in the market in a 7 horse race. The Dods yard are firing on all cylinders so far this season and I think they have a good chance of another winner here.

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Discussiontofollow is a NR

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 And Slip Sliding Away saves the day :cow

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

Non-runner 2:05 Haydock - Discussiontofollow (8/1 Coral) 2.5pts Win

2:05 - Go Far (20/1 Ladbrokes) 0.5pts Win

2:50 Catterick – Hadaj (6/1 BetVictor) 2pts Win 4:20 Haydock – Black Schnapps (9/1 Coral) 1.5pts Win 4:40 Goodwood – Slip Sliding Away (8/1 Bet365) 1.5pts Win 3:40 Beverley – Sea Wolf (15/2 Bet365) 1pt Win 3:55 Curragh – Princess Loulou (14/1 Coral) 1pt Win

Discussiontofollow was pulled out again due to soft ground, the fact the connections are being so particular about where he runs makes me even more confident that he can win off this mark and I will be keeping close tabs on him. Go Far never went a yard and was well beat, the less said about him the better. Similar comments apply to Hadaj who never got into the race and finished in mid division, he was very weak in the market which is usually an ominous sign with Ruth Carr horses, time to cut my losses and take a step back from the cliff edge with him I think - he will of course hack up next time out no doubt :\ Black Schnapps belied weakness in the market to run a very good race when not beaten far into 3rd, he was forced to delay his challenge slightly and was cutting down the front two in the last half a furlong, he may well get a bit further on the basis of this run and I think he may be up to going close in a big handicap on soft ground - be interesting to see if connections give him a break till later in the season now, something like the Melrose at York or the November handicap at Doncaster could be interesting options in my opinion. Sea Wolf was also very weak in the market and looked to be a bit short of pace early on, he ran on well towards the end and finished a respectable third, the jury is still out on him for the time being. Princess Loulou (for whom I somehow missed out the reasoning last night - apologies!) was well backed going off at half the advised price, she took the step up to Group class in her stride and again showed that she travels very strongly through her races when running a great race to finish 3rd, she does look a touch one paced at the business end and is vulnerable to anything with a change of gears and I would not be surprised to see her go back up in trip now. Slip Sliding Away got the better of a depleted field and won with something to spare after having travelled much the best through the race, it looked like he might get stuck behind horses for a moment but once he was produced to challenge there was never any real doubt and he was well in command close home. There was a big rule 4 (45%) on the price of 8/1 bringing it down to just a bit smaller than 9/2 but given he went off at 7/4 I cannot complain. It had looked like being a very frustrating day but somehow I have come out with a small profit and I'll take whatever I can get after a day where it felt like nothing went right. +0.6pts on the day

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Totals after 3 Weeks Starting Bank = 100pts Bets = 50 Winners = 7 Staked = 57.25pts Returned = 89.90pts P/L = +32.65pts ROI = +57.03% Strike Rate = 14.00% *The last totals that I posted earlier in the week had a small error as "Daylight" who was a non runner at Warwick on Tuesday had been counted a loser, this is now rectified in the above totals. I do not include any void bets (i.e. non runners) in the totals.

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Onto tomorrow and I'm going to take two in a nice easy 6 furlong handicap at the Curragh, just the 26 runners to choose from: Curragh 2:15 - Burn The Boats (20/1 Paddy Power) 1pt Win Curragh 2:15 - Ballyorban (33/1 Paddy Power) 0.75pts Win

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

Curragh 2:15 - Burn The Boats (20/1 Paddy Power) 1pt Win Curragh 2:15 - Ballyorban (33/1 Paddy Power) 0.75pts Win

Ok, so these are both rather speculative investments but I think it's the only way to go in a race of this nature and I have backed one on either side of the track, it's anybody's guess how the draw will pan out by race time tomorrow... I was quite keen on Burn The Boats in the Victoria Cup at Ascot a few weeks ago, he didn't really run his race on that occasion but I think it is testament to the high regard that he is held in by his trainer Ger Lyons that he was given such a tough assignment on his first start of the season. This is not a great deal easier but he did win a similar race over this course and distance last year and his best form thus far in his career has been over tomorrows trip of 6 furlongs. He's not completely proven on soft ground but is closely related to horses who do handle soft so I am not too concerned in that regard. I think he has a good chance of getting involved here if he can put that last run behind him. Ballyorban comes with a huge amount of risk attached but I have a sneaking feeling he could be capable of popping up at a massive price here. One thing that is certain is that he is very attractively handicapped on the best of his form as he is now 1lb below the mark he won off at Cork at the start of last season, the other thing that is quite clear is that he handles testing ground as his two career wins came on soft and heavy respectively. On the not so positive side, he has not shown the kind of form needed to win a race of this nature for quite a while, last season there was more bad than good after that aforementioned win at Cork on his debut and he was never at the races on his first start this season. Mixed in with his generally poor performances last season were two decent runs when only beaten a couple of lengths off higher marks than tomorrow and I think his first start this year was just too bad to be true and I can overlook it for now. If you go back to his juvenile days he has a couple of close seconds to some smart Ballydoyle horses, one of which, Snow Queen went on to be Group class, so I think he definitely does have a good level of ability but whether he can run to the height of that ability seems to be another matter entirely. Quite like the fact that he drops back to 6 furlongs as he has only run over the distance twice, leading to a win and a second place finish, and you definitely want one who can stay beyond the distance for these kind of races at the Curragh and he fits the bill having won and placed at 7 furlongs. He could well finish last and never be sighted but I think there is a possibility that we could see a much improved performance from my selection tomorrow and if he does turn up in the mood to run he is handicapped to go very close indeed.

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Burn The Boats is now a NR

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Ballyorban never looked like winning and finished in midfield, he was at least able to travel through the race and this was an improvement on his rather dismal effort first time out. -0.75pts on the day

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 First one for tomorrow: 4:15 Redcar - Ajmany? (4/1 William Hill) 3pts Win

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 And another two: 4:10 Windsor - Piazon (5/1 Bet365) 1.75pts Win 5:40 Windsor - Dominate (12/1 Bet365) 0.75pts Win Reasoning to follow..

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Running way behind schedule tonight and tomorrow is Monday :(, so apologies in advance for the super short write ups: 4:15 Redcar - Ajmany History would suggest that you need to concentrate on the 4 year olds with scope for improvement in this race and the betting rather reflects that, as there are only four of them in the race and they are all within the first 5 in the betting. The one I am very keen on here is Luca Cumani's Ajmany who looks likely to progress into a decent sort over middle distances this season on the basis of a very encouraging effort when just denied over a furlong shorter at Newmarket on his seasonal debut. He has taken a whack in the ratings for that effort but I think it was a tougher race than he faces tomorrow and he will more than likely improve for the run as most of Cumani's horses do. The yard have won this race twice in recent years with similar sorts, both of whom went on to be better than handicappers and I think this one looks quite likely to do the same, I personally had him in as 9/4 fav so I think the 4/1 is worthy of sizeable investment.

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 4:10 Windsor - Piazon The real impetus for this bet was the fact that the bookmakers have chalked up the incredibly frustrating Jazz as market leader and I just have to oppose him. He has been well backed on his last three runs and failed to deliver on each occasion, last time out at Chester he looked to have absolutely everything in his favour but was well beaten in 3rd, this is a bit easier but he could well be a sitting duck at the business end and at around 5/2 I think he is at least half the price he should be. The one I like is Piazon, who is quite closely matched with Jazz on a line of form through Kickboxer, who they both finished behind on their last runs. I do think that Piazon did not get much luck in running and he is probably better judged on his previous two runs when second on his seasonal debut and then winning when backed as if defeat was out of the question at Yarmouth. The form of that Yarmouth race is working out quite well with the second place Nova Champ making all in a very good handicap at Newmarket on his next start. I had my selection in as favourite at around the 3/1 mark so I think he should be backed here.

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 5:40 Windsor - Dominate This looks like a bit of a trappy contest with a few horses in good recent form and a few who would have very good claims if they returned to their best historical form. Dominate falls into the latter category, as his last win was over C & D in this grade off a 3lb higher mark at the start of last season and he spent most of last year competing in much better races than this. He has been rather disappointing so far this season, especially when strong in the market last time out but he did not look to run his race there as he hung all over the course and he now meets the winner, Link Drives Lady, on 5lb better terms. Hard to know whether he has just fallen out of love with the game or if there is another reason as to why he has shown such little sparkle in two runs this year but I think he looks potentially very well treated if returning to anything like his best form, he seems to go best with a bit of a cut in the ground and has won at Windsor before, I am willing to give him another chance and will have a small interest.

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

Running way behind schedule tonight and tomorrow is Monday :(, so apologies in advance for the super short write ups: 4:15 Redcar - Ajmany History would suggest that you need to concentrate on the 4 year olds with scope for improvement in this race and the betting rather reflects that, as there are only four of them in the race and they are all within the first 5 in the betting. The one I am very keen on here is Luca Cumani's Ajmany who looks likely to progress into a decent sort over middle distances this season on the basis of a very encouraging effort when just denied over a furlong shorter at Newmarket on his seasonal debut. He has taken a whack in the ratings for that effort but I think it was a tougher race than he faces tomorrow and he will more than likely improve for the run as most of Cumani's horses do. The yard have won this race twice in recent years with similar sorts, both of whom went on to be better than handicappers and I think this one looks quite likely to do the same, I personally had him in as 9/4 fav so I think the 4/1 is worthy of sizeable investment.

Looks to be a big gamble developing on the Easterby trained Silvery Moon in this race which has seen my selection drift out to as big as 5/1. The money does look significant but I can't really have Silvery Moon on form and I think 5/1 about Ajmany looks massive.

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Quick round up for today: Piazon won with a bit to spare at 3/1, Jazz showed once again that he is a bookmakers benefit of a horse, how he keeps going off at such short prices I do not know! Ajmany didn't look to handle the ground and was extremely disappointing, I made a complete hash of that race and am getting more and more frustrated with my appalling staking as another 3 pointer goes down the tubes. Dominate was a non runner. +5.75pts on the day

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 One for tomorrow (probably the only one as well): 2:40 Lingfield - Secret Missile ?(14/1 BetVictor) 1pt Win

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Some superb stuff in here mate, enjoy reading, keep up the good work. :)

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

One for tomorrow (probably the only one as well): 2:40 Lingfield - Secret Missile ?(14/1 BetVictor) 1pt Win

I think Secret Missile looks a but overpriced in a competitive sprint handicap on the poly track. While he is by no means one for maximum faith as he can be slowly away and does have a tendency to throw in some shockers, I think he has shown enough to suggest that he is up to taking a race of this nature off this sort of a mark if he is on a going day. He has gone up 1lb for a close third at Brighton last time and the first time blinkers he wore on that occasion are retained tomorrow. He usually finds a good bit for pressure and I like the fact that there are a good few who like to force the pace in here, which should allow him to race just behind a strong pace and stay on past beaten horses as they fall in a hole up front. He has 4 places and 1 win from 6 starts on the poly track, with that win coming at Lingfield. The Bill Muir team are ticking along nicely this term and I think this one has a much better chance than his odds suggest.

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Also had a couple of ante post interests in the Derby today: The Derby 7th June 2014 - Kingston Hill (16/1 Ladbrokes) 1pt Win The Derby 7th June 2014 - Toast Of New York (33/1 William Hill) 1pt Win Will add reasoning at some stage tomorrow

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Secret Missile ran something like his usual sort of race (if he has a usual sort of race!?!) as he was off the bridle early but found a good bit for pressure and was finishing off best of all. He should be able to win a race of this nature at some stage but he does need everything to fall in place and looks handicapped to the height of his ability. -1pt on the day

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 First one for tomorrow: 3:30 Chepstow - Lady Bayside (25/1 Bet365) 1.5pts Win

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Second one for tomorrow: 4:15 Hamilton - Bunce (11/1 BetVictor) 1pt Win Might be one more selection, need to make my mind up first

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Made my mind up fairly quickly about this one once I spent a bit of time looking at the form of the race it ran in last time out. 8:30 Beverley - Emaad (5/1 BetVictor) 2pts Win Might be an hour or two till I can get round to doing the write ups...

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 3:30 Chepstow - Lady Bayside This one definitely comes with a good bit of risk attached but the price makes up for it. First of all, the negatives, she has never won after a break and is making her seasonal debut tomorrow; the trainer is in no sort of form at all with just a second to his name so far this season (albeit from only 18 runners) and most of his recent runners have been finishing closer to last than first. On the positive side she is something of a course specialist with all three of her career wins coming over Chepstow's undulations and she seems largely ground independent although possibly better with a bit of cut that she should get tomorrow. Additionally she has now dropped down to the sort of mark that she should be able to go very close off after being a few lbs too high for most of last year after registering course victory number three in June last year. She was largely uninspiring in three runs on the AW but she has never shown the same level of form on artificial surfaces as turf. This looks a very ordinary race with only really the top two in the market in any sort of form and I think my selection is worth chancing at the prices, she has the ability to win this if putting her best foot forward. 4:15 Hamilton - Bunce This looks like a competitive race for the grade but I quite like the chances of the in form Bunce who looks a tad overpiced at 11/1. The claimer my selection won at Redcar before being claimed out of the Tutty yard looks to have been a relatively good race with two of the horses that were behind coming out and winning in handicap company since. Since joining Linda Perratt, Bunce has put in two good performances to finish second over tomorrows C & D and at Ayr. He is now 3lbs better off with Economic Crisis for a beating of less than two lengths on the first occasion and when you factor in the 7lb claim of Jack Garrity, he looks to have a very good chance of reversing that form but is double the price of that rival tomorrow. Other than his penultimate start, he has only one other run at Hamilton to his name which he won. He looks feasibly handicapped on the best of his form when with David O'Meara last season and while Linda Perratt horses would not be renowned for their consistency this one has been just that in his two starts for the yard to date. If he reproduces the form of either of those runs tomorrow he should be up to going very close. 8:30 Beverley - Emaad Produced a few noteworthy runs without winning as a two year old, most significantly when 2nd in a maiden at Chester and then 4th in a Newmarket nursery for which the form has worked out quite nicely since. Things then went pear shaped in a big way as he was stone last and beaten a long way on his two subsequent runs as a juvenile, hard to know what the root cause of those poor performances was but may well have just seen enough of the racecourse for one year and was in need of a break. I think his come back run around 6 weeks ago was much more like it and I think he ran a much better than the finishing positions suggest. That was at tomorrows venue over a furlong further and he led till around the furlong pole on that occasion, so the drop back to a mile looks a good move on that basis and he should be able to get to the lead early on in the small field he faces tomorrow. What I really like about the race he ran in last time out is the way the form is working out, as 6 winners have already come out of the race, including two of the horses that were behind him. My selection is now dropped down another 1lb to a mark of 67 and I think that should not be insurmountable at all. I think he only really has the favourite to beat, and that one is plenty short enough in the betting, although he could be well in on his handicap debut, at around 5/4 he makes no real appeal. The only other potential threat is one of either the Fahey or Easterby runners showing big improvement from 2 to 3, but neither of them have shown any sign of the level of ability that would be needed to win here. I don't like the look of the other two (Eddiemaurice or Needless Shouting) at the current odds, they are priced up more or less the same as my selection and look to have far less potential to improve on their current marks (although Eddiemaurice has dropped a lot in the weights it is probably with good reason as he looks bang average).

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Nothing to get excited about today, Emaad was a NR as Beverley was abandoned, Lady Bayside and Bunce were both disappointing and the only (minor) positive was that I got on at the right price as they both went off a good percentage shorter. -2.5pts on the day A quality card at Sandown to get stuck into tomorrow evening but at first glance there isn't anything that jumps off the page as being outstanding value...

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Just one small interest for tomorrow: 7:15 Sandown - Whiplash Willie (22/1 BetVictor) 0.75pts Win

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

Just one small interest for tomorrow: 7:15 Sandown - Whiplash Willie (22/1 BetVictor) 0.75pts Win

Reasoning (better late than never!): Has a big task on here on the bare numbers, but it is very interesting that connections are pitching him into a Group race when there are surely easier handicap opportunities off a mark of 99. This run comes on the back of a win at Salisbury after nearly three years off the racecourse, and I think it says something about the ability of the horse that connections put in the effort to get him back on course after he obviously had some significant problems. He could well improve on the back of that run and for the step up in trip and looked a very smart individual over middle distances prior to his extended sabbatical. He will obviously need to improve significantly to win here but he does have an entry in the Ascot Gold Cup which also suggests that he is highly thought of at Kingsclere. While this is competitive race, I don't think there are any real Group 1 class horses in the line up and it might be worth taking a speculative punt at a nice price.

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Onto tomorrow and hopefully I can break my duck with a 3 pointer... 4:15 Newmarket - Top Tug ?(7/1 Ladbrokes) 3pts Win

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 And another: 5:45 Brighton - Where's Reiley (15/2 Bet Victor) 1pt Win Probably one more selection to come