calculus Posted June 16, 2014 Author Share Posted June 16, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 2:30 Ascot - Verrazano (4/1 Paddy Power) 1.75pts Win I think this does not look like a particularly strong renewal of the Queen Anne and it is only really the top 3-4 in the market that can be given a realistic chance. I think Toronado will win if he turns up at his best and ready to go first time out but it is some time since he ran and it is possible that he may improve for the run in light of the absence and other targets later in the season. I think Verrazano makes a good bit of appeal to beat the fav at the current prices, my selection ran a decent race on his debut for AOB in the Lockinge last time out. He was held up there and was by no means over stretched in finishing third. I think there is likely to be a good bit of improvement on that performance and it would be no surprise to see him ridden nearer the pace this time. In my opinion it is only really the top two in the betting that are definitively up to this class and I would be quite surprised were it not a Toronado-Verrazano 1-2 (although hopefully not in that order). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted June 17, 2014 Author Share Posted June 17, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 No good at all today, very disheartening on the whole :sad -7pts on the day I've looked at tomorrow's cards and will be having two bets tops... Will post them soon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted June 17, 2014 Author Share Posted June 17, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 So, on to tomorrow... I've tried sorting out the Jersey Stakes a few times but have just ended up giving myself a headache on each occasion so I will leave it well alone. The Queen Mary is similarly problematic, it's very hard to oppose the Wesley Ward filly based on his record here and the way Hootenanny won today, but I cannot back her at 11/4 either. Treve will win the Prince Of Wales but at 4/6 she will do so without carrying my money. I have had a bet in each of the last 3 races though (found one more in addition to the "two tops" :\)... 4:25 Ascot - Annecdote (25/1 Boyles) 1pt Win 5:00 Ascot - Burano (28/1 Stan James) 1pt Win (In addition to ante post bet on Sea Shanty) 5:35 Ascot - Hot Coffee (25/1 BetVictor) 1pt Win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted June 17, 2014 Author Share Posted June 17, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 4:25 Ascot - Annecdote (25/1 Boyles) 1pt Win I am hoping that Jonny Portman can strike one for the "smaller" trainers of the game here and I think his filly Annecdote looks a few points over priced here. My selection was most progressive last season as she started off in Class 4 handicaps and finished the season in Group races, going up a total of 24lbs in the process. Significantly, her most noteworthy performance was when taking the Sandringham handicap over C&D on this card last year. She again ran well over this C&D next time out before taking a further step forward when winning a G3 over a furlong shorter. She ran well on her reappearance this year, if last year is anything to go by she is likely to come on for the run and it would be surprising if connections have not been targeting this race for some time. She will need to take another step forward to be involved here, but it looks to me like she may potentially be capable of improving again and conditions look just about perfect. All in all I think 25/1 is more than fair and it would be no surprise were she to go very close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted June 17, 2014 Author Share Posted June 17, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Betfred are Non Runner No Bet on Royal Ascot so I am going to throw an early dart at the Royal Hunt Cup: 18th June 2014 - Royal Hunt Cup - Sea Shanty (25/1 Betfred) 1.5pts Win I'm reasonably convinced that high drawn horses will be at an advantage here and I have stuck both my eggs in that basket. Sea Shanty finished 4th in what looks to be a very hot handicap on last run of last season when surrounded by subsequent winners and the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 5th placed horses from that race are now rated in treble figures, so a mark of 98 here should not be insurmountable. My selection has continued to progress winning both his starts this season and I think it is telling that Richard Hannon lets him take his chance so soon after winning at Sandown on Saturday. Firmer ground here should be more suitable and I would have expected him to be a lot shorter in the betting now but 20s is still available. On worry is he doesn't look to do anything too quickly and can take a bit of driving to get into full gear, so he could well get outpaced and need some major luck in running. Either way the price is plenty big enough and certainly would not swap the bet for anything else at the prices. 5:00 Ascot - Burano (28/1 Stan James) 1pt Win I could not resist backing Burano here off a mark of 99 as I think he looks potentially very nicely treated. He is a bit of a perennial hard luck story and that has very much been the case in two starts this season when not getting a whole load of luck in running and being nearest at the finish on both occasions. If you go back through his form he has run in some top class races both at home and Dubai and he is now slipping down to a very lenient looking mark in the context of some of that form. The Meehan yard are blowing hot and cold at the moment but they have had a few winners in the last week or so. The trip may be a bit on the short side based on recent form but he was fully effective over this trip as a 3yo and granted the usual requisite luck in running he should go very well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 First one for tomorrow: 5:00 Ascot - American Hope (40/1 BetVictor) 2.5pts Win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Another depressing day, Sea Shanty ran well in finishing 4th in the Hunt Cup but the rest were tripe and are best forgotten. -4.5pts on the day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Just one other selection for tomorrow: 5:35 Ascot - Venezia (20/1 Bet365) 1pt Win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted June 19, 2014 Author Share Posted June 19, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 First one for tomorrow: 5:00 Ascot - American Hope (40/1 BetVictor) 2.5pts Win After nothing to show for a couple of painful days at Ascot thus far this may look like a desperate attempt to recoup any losses incurred. But American Hope has actually been one of the horses in my notebook that I have been particularly sweet on for quite some time. Since joining Mike Murphy he has been restricted to the AW at Lingfield and has run respectably on each occasion, his run behind Ertijaal when a staying on second in the Spring Cup looks like relatively solid form with the likes of Brazos, Bow Creek and Wee Jean a long way behind. I think his run next time out is best ignored as it was a really messy race with just the 3 runners and he was not at all suited by the lack of an early gallop, he then put up another decent performance when a bit further behind Ertijaal back over 7 furlongs last time out. As a big, scopey individual I don't think he is ideally suited by the turns and contours of Lingfield and I think he can improve again here over the straight mile at Ascot. He has only run on artificial surfaces so far in his career but there is no reason to believe he will not be just as good on the turf and I am quite bullish about his chances and think the current prices are far too big, I actually had him in at a tad shorter than 20/1 which may be slightly optimistic but he is now as big as 66/1 in places and that has to be real value in my opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted June 19, 2014 Author Share Posted June 19, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 After nothing to show for a couple of painful days at Ascot thus far this may look like a desperate attempt to recoup any losses incurred. But American Hope has actually been one of the horses in my notebook that I have been particularly sweet on for quite some time. Since joining Mike Murphy he has been restricted to the AW at Lingfield and has run respectably on each occasion' date= his run behind Ertijaal when a staying on second in the Spring Cup looks like relatively solid form with the likes of Brazos, Bow Creek and Wee Jean a long way behind. I think his run next time out is best ignored as it was a really messy race with just the 3 runners and he was not at all suited by the lack of an early gallop, he then put up another decent performance when a bit further behind Ertijaal back over 7 furlongs last time out. As a big, scopey individual I don't think he is ideally suited by the turns and contours of Lingfield and I think he can improve again here over the straight mile at Ascot. He has only run on artificial surfaces so far in his career but there is no reason to believe he will not be just as good on the turf and I am quite bullish about his chances and think the current prices are far too big, I actually had him in at a tad shorter than 20/1 which may be slightly optimistic but he is now as big as 66/1 in places and that has to be real value in my opinion. Arrrgh... Beaten by the draw, have to think he would have gone really close if racing on the near side... C'est la vie :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted June 19, 2014 Author Share Posted June 19, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Just one other selection for tomorrow: 5:35 Ascot - Venezia (20/1 Bet365) 1pt Win Stayed on well to be fourth, she raced a lot further off the pace than I would have expected. Need to go back through my spreadsheet and work out the totals if I had been backing all my selections each-way, I know in theory it should work out more profitable to back win only in the long term but I feel like I have missed out on some decent returns of late (esp. when Paddy Power were paying out on the first 6 in the Brittania and American Hope finished 6th). Nevertheless, two bets and two good performances, hopefully keep the momentum going for the last two days now... -3.5pts on the day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted June 19, 2014 Author Share Posted June 19, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Tomorrow: 5:35 Ascot - Mezzotint (40/1 Paddy Power - paying first 6 places) 1pt E/W Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted June 19, 2014 Author Share Posted June 19, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 And the rest: 3:45 Ascot - Odeon (12/1 BetVictor) 0.75pts Win 4:25 Ascot - My Titiana (9/2 Paddy Power) 2pts Win 5:00 Ascot - Hartnell (9/2 Ladbrokes) 3pts Win Will get back with reasoning after the football Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted June 19, 2014 Author Share Posted June 19, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Tomorrow: 5:35 Ascot - Mezzotint (40/1 Paddy Power - paying first 6 places) 1pt E/W With PP offering 6 places each way and the best price about my selection I have decided to have a speculative each way bet here. I think Mezzotint looks a shade over priced here for the shrewd Stuart Williams for whom my selection has just run twice. Both those runs were on unsuitably soft ground and this son of Diamond Green failed to shine on both occasions. He is now returned to what looks to be his optimal trip of 7 furlongs and should get the rattling fast ground that he needs to be seen to his best. Assuming that my selection is not suddenly in dramatic decline since joining the current connections then I would much rather judge him on his form towards the back end of last season when trained by Marco Botti. The form of his second to Ayaar off 1lb lower when giving the winner 5lbs looks decent in the light of Ayaar's good runs in the Bunbury and Royal Hunt Cups. My selection ran respectably in this race last year when racing on the wrong side of the track and I think he looks highly likely to show something more like his best form, that may well not be enough to win here but he is well drawn and Joseph O'Brien is an interesting booking. All in all I think he is worthy of a speculative investment at a big price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted June 19, 2014 Author Share Posted June 19, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 3:45 Ascot - Odeon (12/1 BetVictor) 0.75pts Win A literal reading of the form of this fellows run in the Dante looks to give him a much better chance than the current prices suggest. Indeed, I think it is significant that James Given pitched him into Group class on the back of a maiden win off a mark of 96 when there would surely have been numerous winnable handicap opportunities elsewhere. At the time I thought the form of the Dante was questionable at best but the subsequent runs of The Grey Gatsby (1st in French Derby) and Arod (4th at Epsom) give the form a significantly more solid look in hindsight. My selection was probably too free in front on that occasion but stuck on well enough to only be beat 3 lengths at the line and Bunker, who he beat fair and square on that occasion, is shorter in the betting tomorrow. While the step up in trip is likely to suit that one, I see no reason why the extra yardage should not suit Odeon, his half brother by Daylami won over 14 furlongs and was placed over 2 miles. He definitely has several colts of immense potential to beat here but I cannot help feeling that were he trained by a more fashionable trainer he would be a good bit shorter in the betting. I think he is definitely deserving of a small interest and he could spring a minor surprise if allowed to set his own fractions up front. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted June 19, 2014 Author Share Posted June 19, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 4:25 Ascot - My Titiana (9/2 Paddy Power) 2pts Win My Titiana looks to hold a massive chance in the Coronation Stakes. She seems to take after her father insofar as she only does as much as is required of her but also looks to have a very good attitude and is well able to dig in and battle if needed. The filly she beat in her maiden has gone on to win a Group 3, and my selection then demonstrated her stomach for a battle when out pointing a few smart fillies (including the Oaks runner up) in a Group 3 at the back end of last season. She has had a few niggles that have stopped her from reappearing until now, but I have little doubt that John Oxx will have her spot on for tomorrow and anything that he sends over to England has to be taken extremely seriously. I think she is possibly the standout filly of her generation and she is likely to be hard to beat with close to ideal conditions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted June 19, 2014 Author Share Posted June 19, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 5:00 Ascot - Hartnell (9/2 Ladbrokes) 3pts Win If history is anything to go by you can discount any runners without the names O'Brien, Johnston or Stoute next to them. With Sir Micheal Stoute not represented tomorrow, that leaves just the two runners to choose from. Regardless of the historical trends, I think that Hartnell, sticks out some distance on form with the step up to 2 miles likely to bring about further improvement. The manner in which my selection stayed on to win over 10 furlongs (albeit as a hot fav) as a 2 year old was a clear indication that he has considerable stamina and there aren't too many Johnston trained 3 year olds that do not improve with some extra yardage. The ground is a bit of a question mark as all his best form is with cut but his Teofilo half sister won on firm ground and provided it is not overly firm by race time tomorrow then I think he should handle it fine. The opposition tomorrow do not look particularly strong and I can only give a realistic chance to the Gosden and O'Brien runners. Gosden's horse looks like a real stayer but he is prohibitively priced and I really do not believe he deserves to be as short as he is, while I think this smacks of an afterthought for the Aiden O'Brien runner after he was beaten in the Dee Stakes at Chester and he certainly looks nowhere near the standard of Leading Light who won this race for the same connections last year. I think 9/2 is very generous and I actually had my selection in at 5/2 fav so I think he should be backed accordingly and he can continue Mark Johnstons great record in this race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted June 20, 2014 Author Share Posted June 20, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Finally... My biggest bet of the week, Hartnell, gets the job done... Thought he was going to get chinned by Century and then thought he could well lose it in the stewards room... Thankfully neither of those events came to pass (the other one would have won with a clear run imo - them's the breaks) and I feel a bit better about things. Of the rest, Odeon sweated up badly and was too free in front; My Titiana could have done with a stronger pace and I don't think too much should be read into the performance; Mezzotint traveled well up to a point but was all at sea once the pace increased. Still behind on the week, but a lot better than it was... +7.40pts on the day EDIT: There was actually a 10% R4 on Hartnell and I rectified the total accordingly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted June 20, 2014 Author Share Posted June 20, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 One tomorrow away from Ascot: 9:20 Haydock - Emaad (9/2 BetVictor) 3pts Win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted June 20, 2014 Author Share Posted June 20, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Cannot separate these two tomorrow so will split my stakes: 3:05 Ascot - Salutation (33/1 Paddy Power) 0.75pts Win 3:05 Ascot - Squire Osbaldeston (22/1 Stan James) 0.75pts Win A few more selections to follow... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted June 20, 2014 Author Share Posted June 20, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Another one Ante Post for Ascot, far from certain to make the cut so will do it with Betfred again who are NRNB: Saturday 21st June - Wokingham Handicap - Royal Ascot - Discussiontofollow (20/1 Betfred) 2pts Win Non-runner and money back, will put the stake straight back into the bald man's coffers: 5:00 Ascot - Absolutely So (14/1 Betfred) 2pts Win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted June 20, 2014 Author Share Posted June 20, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Talked myself into one more bet tomorrow: 4:25 Ascot - Astaire (10/1 Coral) 1pt Win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted June 20, 2014 Author Share Posted June 20, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 One tomorrow away from Ascot: 9:20 Haydock - Emaad (9/2 BetVictor) 3pts Win Feels like I've been doing write ups for Emaad forever as I have backed him twice when a non runner and again when he was third at Lingfield lto. I can't be bothered to go back and find those write ups at the moment but I will attempt to summaries as concisely as I can. The race he ran in at Beverley first time up this year looks to have been a hot one for the grade with a swathe of subsequent winners coming out of it. My selection led for a long way there before tiring close home and that was again the case when he was well backed at Lingfield last time. I think that he settled better last time and it was more that Lingfield was not the ideal course to be trying to make all over that saw him caught close home. I think he has a much more realistic chance of leading pillar to post here over a more galloping course, he is up in grade but that means he has a featherweight to carry and the wily old Franny Norton should be able to keep a little bit up his sleeve for the last furlong. In my opinion he is potentially very well handicapped and he should be contesting better races than this in due course. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted June 20, 2014 Author Share Posted June 20, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Talked myself into one more bet tomorrow: 4:25 Ascot - Astaire (10/1 Coral) 1pt Win Landed on this one by a simple process of elimination. This does not look to be a vintage renewal of the Diamond Jubilee and most of these are some way off being Group 1 class. The only ones that are definitively top class are Gordon Lord Byron, Slade Power and Aljamaaheer, and I think there are significant doubts over all of that trio. Gordon Lord Byron has been globe trotting of late and is a class act but he may need a bit further to be seen at his best these days and soft ground would be preferable. I think the ground is a major concern for Slade Power and cannot justify backing him at 4/1 with that question mark hanging over him. Aljamaaheer looks to be the sort of horse that you could follow off several cliffs and while there is no doubting his raw ability I am not sure he will be able to make up the requisite ground here if they get away from him up front, maybe sprinting will be the making of him but I am still skeptical. Astaire ran as well as could be expected behind Maarek last time out and while all the talk has been about Kevin Ryan's other 3yo sprinter I think this fellow could develop into an equally smart individual. Faster ground will do his chances no harm and his high cruising speed should serve him well here, I think he looks sure to be involved and is the value call in a relatively weak renewal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted June 21, 2014 Author Share Posted June 21, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 3:05 Ascot - Salutation (33/1 Paddy Power) 0.75pts Win 3:05 Ascot - Squire Osbaldeston (22/1 Stan James) 0.75pts Win Running really late (blame my wife :\) but will get some brief reasoning up before the off... Squire Osbaldeston ran well when probably disadvantaged by being held up at Chester last time out and traveled well through the race before staying on to finish 4th, will be better suited by this course and may well be better suited by firmer ground here. Form of 3rd place behind Contributor at Kempton on penultimate start looks good in light of that ones subsequent exploits and looks a bit overpriced off a mark of 98 today. Salutation may well finish nearer last than first but I feel he is capable of putting in a big run if turning up at the top of his game. My selection was mightily impressive on the AW a few starts back but then flopped massively on his next run back on turf, then came back to something like his best when 4th in a hot race behind three smart individuals at Newmarket before flopping again last time out. Hard to know what he will do today but he has come back from woeful performances before and Mark Johnston is usually able to get his horses to Royal Ascot at the top of their game and I think he is worth a speculative interest at a big price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted June 21, 2014 Author Share Posted June 21, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Salutation finished second :( Definitely going to have to take another look at this whole e/w thing :p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted June 21, 2014 Author Share Posted June 21, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Non-runner and money back, will put the stake straight back into the bald man's coffers: 5:00 Ascot - Absolutely So (14/1 Betfred) 2pts Win Wow! That 14s looks good now.. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted June 21, 2014 Author Share Posted June 21, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 One of the first beat... Oh well :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted June 21, 2014 Author Share Posted June 21, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Need Emaad to do me a favor later on, he let me down in a similar situation a fortnight ago but hopefully he can pull it out of the bag today... I am out on the razzle dazzle tonight so will post the one for tomorrow now (the Mark Johnston love in continues :p): 4:40 Pontefract - Bureau (5/1 BetVictor) 1.75pts Win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted June 22, 2014 Author Share Posted June 22, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Emaad was unable to get me out of a hole as he was second after leading most of the way, the winner looks to be an improved performed over 10 furlongs and he won with a bit to spare. I would like to see Emaad dropped back down in trip as he looked to be too free in the first few furlongs and that did not help his chances at all (FWIW I do not think he would have beaten the winner anyway), I will keep close tabs on Emaad and think he will definitely be winning races. Another dog of a day to round off a dog of a week where very little went my way - I went back through my old spreadsheets and that was officially the worst Royal Ascot since my records began. -7.5pts on the day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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