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Calculus' Flat Season 2014

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calculus

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Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 And some more: 3:10 Chester - Wilde Inspiration (12/1 Bet365) 1.5pts Win 2:40 Newbury - Willing Foe (13/2 BetVictor) 1pt Win 3:15 Newbury - Accession (5/1 BetVictor) 1pt Win Back with reasoning and maybe another pick or two in the morning

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calculus

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Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

4:20 Pontefract - Oxsana (7/2 Ladbrokes) 1.75pts Win
Big drop down in class for Oxsana today as she has been running in some decent listed races both at home and in Dubai. She ran no sort of race in the Sandringham at Royal Ascot on her first start since returning from Dubai, but then ran a much better race when third and eased in grade slightly last time out. The second place one from that race has won a listed race since so it's probably decent enough form for the grade. She takes another step back in class here and it looks like she should have the race run to suit with a good pace to aim at. She's not had too many chances at a mile and could be just beginning to find her stride for the season now. All the value has now long gone and she is very short prices in some places so hopefully the confidence is no misplaced.
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reynard

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Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 hi calculus do not worry you are doing ok still. any system with a 13% strike rate will have ups and downs in it. none us of like to see the profits reduce of course. but you are still about 85 points up from a high of 120. still excellent figures think of the glass as still half full rather than high empty.

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calculus

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Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Haven't had much time lately but have had a few bets at York tomorrow 1:55 York - Pearl Castle (11/1 Coral) 1.5pts Win 2:30 York - Pale Mimosa (7/2 William Hill) 3pts Win 3:05 York - Glory Awaits (14/1 Bet365) 1pt Win 4:55 York - God Willing (33/1 BetVictor) 0.75pts Win will try and post some reasoning in due course..

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calculus

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Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

Haven't had much time lately but have had a few bets at York tomorrow 1:55 York - Pearl Castle (11/1 Coral) 1.5pts Win 2:30 York - Pale Mimosa (7/2 William Hill) 3pts Win 3:05 York - Glory Awaits (14/1 Bet365) 1pt Win 4:55 York - God Willing (33/1 BetVictor) 0.75pts Win will try and post some reasoning in due course..
Pearl Castle ran well to finish fourth, thankfully Salutation did not win as that would have been a bit of sickener. Pale Mimosa looked a class act when traveling much the best and holding on well when pressed late on, Champions Day at Ascot probably next up for her I would imagine. Glory Awaits led for a long way but was beaten into second by the ultra progressive Absolutely So. God Willing finished midfield without threatening. 5% rule 4 on Pale Mimosa but good to have a winner back on the board... +6.73pts on the day
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calculus

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Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

4:40 Goodwood - Miss Marjurie (12/1 Paddy Power) 2pts Win
Miss Marjurie looks to have a daunting task based on the official ratings and the form of her win lto has not worked out particularly well, but the form of her previous run when second to Mighty Yar does look a lot better now than it did at the time - the four horses that finished behind her that day are all now rated in treble figures and the third place horse has also won a Group 3 race - so on the bare face of that form she is possibly a bit better than her current rating of 93. It is interesting that she is pitched into a listed race rather than looking to capitalize on what could be an exploitable handicap mark. There are a clutch of smart looking 3yos in the field but the older generation hold sway in this race on historic trends and my selection makes a good bit of appeal at a more than fair price.
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Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

2:55 Goodwood - American Hope (8/1 Ladbrokes) 1.75pts Win
American Hope is definitely worth one more chance tomorrow to recoup the losses incurred backing him the last twice. He was brutally unlucky to be drawn on the wrong side of the course at Royal Ascot and the horses that finished behind him in the far side group in that race have franked the form in no uncertain terms. He then ran another massive race when second at the same venue when being matched at 0.01 in running on betfair before getting caught close home. In both those races the manner in which he traveled was really noticeable as he literally tanked through the race but then looked to idle a tad in front so the drop back to 7 furlongs tomorrow may mean that Shane Kelly is not forced into pushing the button too early. The horse is highly thought of by the trainer and probably deserves to pick up a big handicap before the season is over.
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calculus

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Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Balmoral Castle went some way to saving what would have been a disastrous day yesterday. American Hope is still worth another chance after a run where nothing went to plan from the start. Farquhar was a non runner. Not much to say about the others really. -1.75pts on the day Totals After 16 Weeks Starting Bank = 100pts Bets = 241 Winners = 32 Staked = 332.00pts Returned = 421.71pts P/L = 89.71pts ROI = 27.02% Strike Rate = 13.28%

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calculus

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Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

5:35 Beverley - Acquaint (18/1 William Hill) 0.75pts Win
I wrote this prior to Acquaint's run last time out:
8:15 Beverley - Acquaint (16/1 Coral) 0.75pts Win Had this one in my tracker after her penultimate run at this course, she ran respectably to finish 4th in a grade higher than today on that occasion. Her run last time out is probably best ignored as she lost all chance after being shuffled back at the turn for home on the AW at Lingfield. She is by no means a superstar but this is by no means a super race and I think she is interesting stepped up to 2 miles for the first time as her full brother was a multiple winner over timber and stayed well enough to win over 2 miles on the flat.
The step up to 2 miles did not really look to suit there and she blew whatever chance she had by racing freely in front and then making a dart for the stables as they set out for the second circuit. I am willing to give her one more chance as she is beginning to look very well weighted and if she can reproduce the form of her run three starts back when 4th over this C+D off a 4lb higher mark in a higher grade then she must be up to going close here.
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Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

3:05 Goodwood - Bureau (12/1 Coral) 1pt Win
Madeed definitely has the raw ability to win this race but I think he will need to settle a bit better than he did last time out if he is to truly see out the extended 9 furlong trip as he was possibly a bit too keen early on when 3rd over this C+D lto. While this is a slightly easier race today he has been upped 4lbs for that effort and the percentage call is to oppose him at a prohibitive enough price of 3/1. The one I cam down on is the Johnston trained Bureau who was not beaten far into third at Nottingham last time out. She looks to be the obvious pace angle in the race and if she is allowed to set her own fractions in front then she could be a hard horse to pass. The Johnston runners have been in and out of form from one week to the next of late (see Salutation, Almargo or Little Shambles for example) but they had a couple of winners make all at Goodwood yesterday and I think Bureau makes a bit of appeal to do the same at a fair price.
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Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 It's very hard for me to find time at the moment as I am working a lot and also have a thesis to get written within the next 2-3 weeks. Things aren't exactly flying of late anyway, as a result, I will probably just concentrate on the weekend racing for the rest of the flat season with a couple of bets on weekdays when time allows... Anyway, I have one I am keen on today: 4:45 Sandown - All Talk N No Do (16/1 Coral) 1.5pts Win

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calculus

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Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 So I ended up being a lot busier writing up my thesis than I had expected and this thread got deprioritised as a result. Anyway the thesis has been handed in now and I can start back on my preferred type of studying again :) Bit out of touch with the racing at the moment and I think this thread has run its course anyway so will probably start a new thread for the AW racing over the winter in a few weeks. Reasonably happy with the results on this thread, but things definitely went downhill in the last couple of months - apologies to anyone who was following! There are a few lessons I have learned though and I think it has been a productive exercise in general. One last one before I sign off... I Really fancy American Hope today in the 3.50 at Ascot - thank me later ;)

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reynard

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Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 hi calculas good to see you back. you have done well this season a 84.25 profit is worthwhile. any system profit is always great news. look forward to your aw system. they heard your money was down on american hope and pulled it . i always love the in depth write up you give not just picking from a hat system. onward and upward

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