Calculus' Flat Season 2014

[calculus]

Going to start a thread to keep track of my bets for the 2014 flat season, my intention is to run the thread from the Guineas meeting until the St Leger meeting. I hope to be able to work a bit more discipline into my investments and reduce knee jerk decisions by posting them up here with thought out reasoning. Bets will tend towards smaller stakes at speculative prices and will generally be win only. It's been more miss than hit for me lately, but it's a long term game and hopefully I can get things back on track in due course :hope.

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 First one for tomorrow: Thirsk 5:20 - Red Baron (8/1 Bet365) 1 Pt Win The Guineas meeting usually coincides with the time where I can start getting seriously involved on the flat and I feel like I may have found one worthy of a significant investment tomorrow. I was really taken with Red Baron last time out as he blasted out of the gates and had the rest of the field in trouble a long way from home, eventually running out an authoritative winner by just under 2 lengths. What makes that performance all the more impressive is the fact that it was on soft ground and his best historic form has all come on ground on the firm side of good. He is likely to get firmer ground tomorrow so it seems reasonable to expect some improvement from his previous run on the basis of the ground at least. While he has a big field in opposition tomorrow, many of them are past their best these days and hold few secrets from the handicapper. I think my selection looks like being a really progressive sprinter this season and I would be surprised if he is eligible for a class 4 handicap again any time soon. 8/1 looks perfectly reasonable in my opinion and I think he will take a lot of stopping.

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 One more of interest tomorrow: Newmarket 14:05 - Veeraya (33/1 Ladbrokes) 0.25 Pt Win A big field and many who can be given a chance, however historical trends suggest that it is worth focusing on the 4 year old brigade. Bold Sniper looks particularly interesting but he looks to have been found in the market already and this trip probably represents a bare minimum for him, while he is unlikely to be found wanting for fitness on his first run of the season there will undoubtedly be some bigger targets later on in the season and I cannot back him at the current prices. The one I have come down is the Julia Fielden trained Veeraya, while not having the scope for progression of some previous winners of this race I think he looks quite interesting on a couple of pieces of form over this course last season when trained by William Haggas. Those two runs were when splitting Majestic Moon and Maid A Million over 7 furlongs before finishing on the heels of the subsequently top class Top Notch Tonto over a mile, I think either of those performances would have to give him a realistic shout tomorrow. Since joining the Fielden yard he has been restricted to the polytrack at Lingfield and has generally run respectably, with his most noteworthy run coming last time out when probably running a better race than the placings suggest, when finishing midfield at 100/1 and 6 lengths behind the high class Grandeur, despite being trapped wide for most of the race. Seems plausible that there could be some improvement in the locker with the switch back to turf and a more galloping track and I think he is worth a small interest at a big price.

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Last one for today: 7:15 Doncaster - Englishman (11/1 BetVictor) 0.5 pt Win I quite liked the chances of this one yesterday and he has drifted to a nice price overnight so I will have a small interest. Looks to have been a pretty hot maiden that he won on his career debut back in 2012 at Newbury, with several of those in behind going on to better things and being rated in treble figures (e.g. Smoothtalkinrascal, Cay Verde, Bungleinthejungle). He has only seen a racecourse twice since then, on the first occasion he finished down the field in the Group 2 Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot, showing good speed before fading late. His most recent run was at Thirsk, 3 weeks ago, where he was well beaten, but I am happy to overlook that performance as it was on the back of a lengthy absence and he pulled too hard to get home over the 7 furlong trip. Down to a mark of 87 and dropped back down to a sprint trip today and with proven ability to handle the soft ground I think he is well worth another chance. I don't think connections would be persevering with him (and keeping him as a colt) if they didn't believe he was capable of coming back to something like the promise he showed as a 2 year old.

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 The thread starts with a blank. Red Baron was very well backed, going off at 11/4 but he never seemed to really let himself down and hung all over the track when pressure was applied before being heavily eased towards the end. Hard to fathom what went wrong but that definitely is not his true running, he does have a slightly awkward head carriage and just might be a bit of a monkey, possibly could benefit from being gelded, who knows. Veeraya was off the bridle some way out and probably isn't up to this class, I think there may be some races to be won with him but they are unlikely to be at Newmarket on a Saturday. Englishman was weak in the market all day but looked to be coming with a meaningful challenge but his effort petered out and he is probably best watched until showing he retains his ability. -1.75pts on the day

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 First (and possibly only) interest for tomorrow, going to post it now and will add reasoning when I get the opportunity: 3:10 Newmarket - Seeking Magic (12/1 Bet365) 0.5 pt Win 3:10 Newmarket - Hadaj (25/1 Boyles) 0.25 pt Win

[BillyHills]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Good luck with this Calculus:ok

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Cheers BH! Reasoning for today's two: Going with two in the big field sprint (one drawn on either side): 3:10 Newmarket - Seeking Magic (12/1 Bet365) 0.5 pt Win Admirably consistent performer who was really progressive last season and placed or won in every one of his 6 runs. What I really like is his record when fresh with form figures of 3,2,1 on his seasonal debut and form figures of 3,3,1 on his other runs after a break of 60 days or more. In addition to this, he has a very good record in big field handicaps with form figures of 1,2,3,8,3,3,1,2 in handicaps of 16 runners or more. While he is not obviously well handicapped off a mark of 99, he looks guaranteed to run his race and even at 6 years old if he continues to progress as he did last season he may well be good enough to go beyond handicap company before the season is finished. Clive Cox has started the season in good form and Ryan Tate, who looks to have struck up a good partnership with the horse takes off a handy 5lbs. 3:10 Newmarket - Hadaj (25/1 Boyles) 0.25 pt Win Not a horse to set your clock by but is capable on his day. He generally went backwards when with Clive Brittain after having won on his career debut over the July course here at HQ. But looks to have been rejuvenated by the switch to Ruth Carr and the drop back down to sprinting trips. His two runs so far this season have been respectable without being overly promising, however he has raced far less prominently than when showing his best form and I think he may have just needed the runs to put him right and he's dropped to a mark of 83 as a result. I think there are undoubtedly races to be won with him off this sort of mark and it is interesting that the trainer chooses to send him down from the north of England for this big field handicap at Newmarket when there would surely be more winnable sprint handicaps at northern tracks. The yard look to be coming into form of late and they are usually worth following when they hit form, the booking of Silvestre De Sousa certainly won't hurt his chances either and I think he can go well at a big price.

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

Cheers BH! Reasoning for today's two: Going with two in the big field sprint (one drawn on either side): 3:10 Newmarket - Seeking Magic (12/1 Bet365) 0.5 pt Win Admirably consistent performer who was really progressive last season and placed or won in every one of his 6 runs. What I really like is his record when fresh with form figures of 3,2,1 on his seasonal debut and form figures of 3,3,1 on his other runs after a break of 60 days or more. In addition to this, he has a very good record in big field handicaps with form figures of 1,2,3,8,3,3,1,2 in handicaps of 16 runners or more. While he is not obviously well handicapped off a mark of 99, he looks guaranteed to run his race and even at 6 years old if he continues to progress as he did last season he may well be good enough to go beyond handicap company before the season is finished. Clive Cox has started the season in good form and Ryan Tate, who looks to have struck up a good partnership with the horse takes off a handy 5lbs. 3:10 Newmarket - Hadaj (25/1 Boyles) 0.25 pt Win Not a horse to set your clock by but is capable on his day. He generally went backwards when with Clive Brittain after having won on his career debut over the July course here at HQ. But looks to have been rejuvenated by the switch to Ruth Carr and the drop back down to sprinting trips. His two runs so far this season have been respectable without being overly promising, however he has raced far less prominently than when showing his best form and I think he may have just needed the runs to put him right and he's dropped to a mark of 83 as a result. I think there are undoubtedly races to be won with him off this sort of mark and it is interesting that the trainer chooses to send him down from the north of England for this big field handicap at Newmarket when there would surely be more winnable sprint handicaps at northern tracks. The yard look to be coming into form of late and they are usually worth following when they hit form, the booking of Silvestre De Sousa certainly won't hurt his chances either and I think he can go well at a big price.

Seeking Magic went off at 9/1 and finished in midfield after looking short of tactical pace at a crucial stage, he didn't get the best of passages but he was beaten fair and square, I wouldn't give up on him just yet but given his good record fresh he may be high enough in the weights for the time being. Hadaj was very popular in the market, going off at 12/1 and ran a very good race to finish 5th, there will be other days for him and I would expect him to be out again relatively soon and is one to note especially while the yard are in form, although whether he will be much of a price next time is questionable. -0.75pts on the day No winners yet but have been getting on at the right prices at least. Doubt I will have any further bets until the start of Chester on Wednesday.

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Going to put one up for the Chester Cup now as it looks like the price could go soon, reasoning to follow tomorrow. Chester Cup (Wednesday 7th May): Ballinderry Boy (14/1 SkyBet / Betfred / ToteSport) 1pt Win

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

Going to put one up for the Chester Cup now as it looks like the price could go soon, reasoning to follow tomorrow. Chester Cup (Wednesday 7th May): Ballinderry Boy (14/1 SkyBet / Betfred / ToteSport) 1pt Win

Well that was a bit of a brain fart from me, final decs out today and Ballinderry Boy is not declared, which is a real sickener. No need to write up the reasoning now anyway. -1pt on the bet

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Now that the final decs are up and the market has been reformed (and the smell of burnt fingers is beginning to clear :() I will take another shot at the race: Chester Cup (7^th March) Brockwell (16/1 Boyles) 0.5pt Win Communicator (16/1 Stan James) 0.5pt Win Reasoning in 10 minutes

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Reasoning: The race make up is somewhat confused by the fact that Perfect Heart is first reserve and may or may not line up on the day, if there is a defection and he gets in then he will probably go off a well backed favourite and looks sure to be there or thereabouts, Roger Varian will be keen for success in this race as his former mentor, the late Micheal Jarvis, won it twice with Anak Pekan. The other two at the top of the market, Mubaraza and Angel Gabrial, are very closely matched on running last time out at Ripon. The big doubt for Mubraza prior to that Ripon race was his ability to handle a sharper track as all his previous form was at stiff, galloping tracks, but he seemed to get round Ripon no bother and I would fancy him to exact revenge on Angel Gabrial this time at 3lb better terms, however they are both short enough in the betting in what is a particularly open renewal and make no massive appeal at the prices. The two I have come down on are the Andrew Baliding trained Communicator and Tom Dascombe’s Brockwell. Communicator has been a very smart horse over middle distances for the past two seasons before being upped to longer distances on the AW this year. In between that he had one run over timber where he was second to the high class Josses Hill (subsequently second at Cheltenham and a winner at Aintree). His form over the two miles on the AW has been decent and he ran particularly well to finish third in a valuable conditions race at Lingfield last time out looking as though the extra 2 furlongs here should not be a major hindrance. He has a win and a second in 4 runs at Chester and from a low draw, Oisin Murphy should be able to get him into a good position early. Also interesting that the Balding yard took out Ballinderry Boy and left this one in as their sole representative. Should run a big race and the stand out 16/1 probably won’t last long. Brockwell ran well in a few long distance handicaps last season and actually finished in front of Mubraza in the Northumberland Plate, and is now better off at the weights with that rival. Also ran very well in the Cesarewitch Trial (third with front 3 well clear) and the Cesarewitch itself (in front at the 2 furlong pole before plugging on at one pace), running off a 1lb higher mark on both occasions. His record fresh is not particularly great, but this is a meeting that the Dascombe yard target and I have no doubt they will have this one ready to roll on the day. Proven over the trip and with a great theoretical chance at the weights I think he looks a few points too big.

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Got one for tomorrow, going to stick it up now as the price may not last, will add reasoning when I get home from work: 8:30 Catterick - Choosen One (8/1 Bet365) 1.5pt Win

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Reasoning for the above selection: Won this race with something to spare 12 months ago from a 1lb lower mark (was 2lbs out of the handicap and is 1lb out of the handicap tomorrow) and while this does look like a very competitive race for the grade I think he makes a lot of appeal to repeat the dose this year with the Ruth Carr team really hitting form in the last week or so. My selection was behind a few of these over this course and distance 13 days ago but he is quite a bit better off at the weights with those three horses this time, he also usually improves with his first few races of the year and this is his third run of the season so I think he should be able to improve a good bit on that performance. It also seems reasonable to expect an improved performance as the yard have really hit top form in the intervening period since his last run. He was probably a tad to high in the weights for most of last season but is back down to the sort of mark that has historically seen him be very competitive. PJ McDonald rides and he gave Dubai Dynamo a peach of the ride when winning for the yard today. There is actually some 10/1 available now since I first posted the bet and I think that looks plenty big enough.

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 One bet at Chester tomorrow, in addition to the two previously advised in the Chester Cup: 3:15 Chester: Red Baron (14/1 Bet365) 1pt Win Reasoning is very much the same as that which I based the bet on Saturday at Thirsk. Obviously he was very disappointing on that occasion after being very well backed, but I think it is telling that connections turn him out again so soon and in a much tougher race. I am quite confident that he did not show his true colours last time out and that is generally reinforced by the line of form through Tax Free (2nd in the race at Thirsk on Saturday) who he beat into 2nd with a lot to spare at on the previous run at Donny. His running style should be well suited to Chester and provided he can get a good pitch early on I think he is capable of going close here. I think he could be a sprinter worth following this season, although obviously a repetition of his last run may cause me to revise that opinion.

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

8:30 Catterick - Choosen One (8/1 Bet365) 1.5pt Win

About as bad as it gets, weak in the market and ran accordingly. The winner, Keep It Dark, looks a horse on the upgrade and could go in again if turned out under a penalty. -1.5pts on the day On to tomorrow and some good action at Chester

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

3:15 Chester: Red Baron (14/1 Bet365) 1pt Win

Brockwell (16/1 Boyles) 0.5pt Win Communicator (16/1 Stan James) 0.5pt Win

No good again today. Didn't get a good look at the racing as I was at work so will need to review everything. Communicator was very well backed going off at 6/1 and ran a decent race, although it is surprising he wasn't ridden closer to the pace from his low draw. Brockwell and Red Baron both looked to be beaten by better horses. -2pts on the day :sad Hopefully I can get a winner on the board ASAP.

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Running Totals Starting Bank = 100pts Bets = 10 Staked = 7.00pts Returned = 0.00pts P/L = -7.00pts ROI = -100% Strike Rate = 0%

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 For tomorrow: 4:25 Chester - The Hooded Claw (11/1 Coral) 1pt Win Closely matched with a couple of tomorrow's rivals on running at Doncaster last time out, but looks very likely to improve on that performance granted better luck in running here. Was well backed throughout the day last time, but got no real luck in running and had to cover a good deal of additional ground as he was switched around the field. Was not touched with the whip when it became apparent that his chance had gone but nevertheless finished strongly and looked to have a lot left to give. This race looks like being run to suit with the likes of Jazz and Quickaswecan likely to force a fast pace from their inside berths. My selection, will undoubtedly need luck in running here from a wide draw but he would be probably be dropped in behind the leaders either way so it may not be as big a hindrance as it could be. The aforementioned Jazz looks like the type of horse who will be well suited by Chester's tight bends but he has been well backed twice now and flattered to deceive on both occasions and at a best priced 4/1 he makes no appeal whatsoever. I think the 11/1 (which has now gone since the bet was first posted) looks far too big and I would have had him in at around the 13/2 mark, if he gets the breaks I think he will go very close indeed.

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Second and final one for tomorrow: 1:45 Chester - Anaconda (20/1 Paddy Power) 0.5pt Each-Way (1/4 1-2-3-4) I am quite keen on the chances of Anaconda in the opener tomorrow and I think he may have well been underestimated by many. Was considered good enough to be sent off at 5/1 in a hot race at Lingfield last time out after having performed well in the Winter Derby and Winter Derby Trial respectively. Showed good speed to lead the field up to around about the furlong pole in each of the aforementioned races at Lingfield before being run down late on, as is so often the case for front runners at that venue. Now switches from a track that is effectively a front runners graveyard to a track where front runners tend to be favoured. Will have to be sharp out of the gates to get over from his wide draw, but as the 10 furlong start is positioned at the top of the home straight, with around about a 2 furlong run to the first bend, he may well be able to do just that and I really do not believe he will be that inconvenienced by the high draw if he breaks. Has had very few chances to prove himself on turf and won his last run in a handicap (on the poly track) off a mark only 1lb lower than tomorrow. The Dascombe yard target this meeting as much as any in the race calender and with Paddy Power paying the extra place each way, I am think he is well worth a speculative interest.

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

For tomorrow: 4:25 Chester - The Hooded Claw (11/1 Coral) 1pt Win 1:45 Chester - Anaconda (20/1 Paddy Power) 0.5pt Each-Way (1/4 1-2-3-4)

First up, Anaconda was terrible, although it was a very strange decision to hold him up at the back, given that he has made the running on nearly every start in his career thus far. He was never involved and trailed in last. Things really aren't going to plan for Tom Dascombe at Chester so far. Thankfully The Hooded Claw was a good deal better and rewarded strong market support throughout the day, going off at 6/1 and getting up by just under a length to deny the also very well backed Kickboxer, with the front two well clear. I think either of the front two should be up to winning more races of this nature off similar marks, however soft ground (which seems to suit both very well) may not be so easy to come by in the coming weeks. I may well have been tempted to go with a slightly bigger stake had I known the ground was going to get as testing as it did, nevertheless, a winner is a winner and I nailed the price. As an aside, Jazz must be a real bookies favourite now after being backed into 9/4 (!?!) fav and once again having no answers at the business end. +10pts on the day

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Gone through the card at Chester tomorrow a few times now and am struggling find anything that makes any real appeal, with the ground becoming quite testing today and the possibility of more rain it could become a real minefield as the ground nearest the rail deteriorates with racing, making it very difficult to form any real opinions. I think Hillstar will be very hard to beat in the Ormonde Stakes and quite liked Verse Of Love in the 3.50 but they will not be carrying my cash. I have found a couple of ones I quite like on the evening cards though: Ripon 7:00 - Hadaj (5/1 Ladbrokes) 2pts Win Ascot 7:15 - Trader Jack (16/1 BetVictor) 1pt Win Reasoning to follow..

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Busy with work so got to keep this short and sweet... Ripon 7:00 - Hadaj Backed Hadaj in a big field handicap on Sunday at the Guineas meeting and he was well backed before finishing 5th. That run showed that he is clearly coming to hand and this is a far less demanding test. I think he is very attractively handicapped off a mark of 83 and the yard are in good form. Slightly perturbed that the yard are running three in the race and this one has the least senior jockey booked, but I think he is undoubtedly the pick on form, the jockey has won on him before and there has been some money around for him early doors. I think he really should be up to winning a race of this nature and he is a confident selection. Ascot 7:15 - Trader Jack Trader Jack has tumbled down the weights since joining David Flood but ran his best race for sometime at Windsor last time out where he came from a long way back to finish best of all. He was unfancied that day going off at 16/1 and it was his second run back from a break so he may have just needed the run to put him right and it is interesting that he is turned out again just a few days later, possibly indicating that the yard are keen to strike while the iron is hot. He looks very nicely handicapped on the best of his form for Roger Charlton, the stiffer track at Ascot should suit judged on the way he finished last time out and the yard had a winner over jumps on Monday. I think 16/1 represents some decent value and he could go close here.

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

Ripon 7:00 - Hadaj (5/1 Ladbrokes) 2pts Win Ascot 7:15 - Trader Jack (16/1 BetVictor) 1pt Win

Well that was all rather frustrating/disappointing. Hadaj was well backed on course, going off at 7/4 favourite, he was outpaced in the middle of the race before coming home with a wet sail to finish 2nd and looking like there was a good bit left in the tank, my feeling is he could have gone a lot closer with a stronger and more proactive ride from the jockey. There's definitely races in him. Trader Jack never really threatened and probably does not have the speed for sprint trips, despite his current yards efforts to reinvent him as a sprinter, hard to know where they will go with him from here but he could well be dropped another pound or two and he looks too well handicapped to not be winning a some stage in the not too distant future. To top things off, one of the ones I had considered at Chester, Verse Of Love, romped home at 7/1 with a heroic ride from old John Egan. Lots of possibles for tomorrow but not sure how many (if any) I will actually put up as selections. -3 pts on the day :sad

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Ok, managed to put some order on my short list for tomorrow and my selections are as follows: 3:50 Ascot - Burn The Boats (22/1 BetVictor) 1.25 pts Win 3:50 Ascot - Gabriels Lad (25/1 Bet365) 0.75 pts Win 5:00 Ascot - Triple Chocolate (20/1 Paddy Power) 1 pt Win 3:00 Haydock - Mass Rally (15/2 Paddy Power) 2 pts Win 5:10 Lingfield - Born To Surprise (6/1 Bet365) 1.5 pts Win Already missed a couple of prices whilst deliberating, so want to get these up now and will add reasoning in due course...

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

3:50 Ascot - Burn The Boats (22/1 BetVictor) 1.25 pts Win 3:50 Ascot - Gabriels Lad (25/1 Bet365) 0.75 pts Win

The Victoria Cup looks as open and competitive as always and the added unfathomable factors of the ground and the draw bias mean that it is devilishly difficult to form any solid opinions. I feel there may be a bit of value to be had with the Irish raider, Burn The Boats, Ger Lyons has started the season in typically strong fashion and I think it is significant that he sends this one over the Irish sea to make his seasonal debut in a race of this nature. The way he stayed on to win a very competitive handicap at the Curragh last June suggested that a step up to 7 furlongs would suit and he was very well backed for the Bunbury Cup next time out, going off at 13/2 fav, he was possibly a tad disappointing in that race but was certainly not disgraced and I think he is well worth another crack in a race of this nature and he is still open to some improvement at the age of 5 with only 8 career starts. Colin Keane is good value for his 3lb claim and that can make a big difference in these big field handicaps. There is a nagging doubt about the ground as he has generally avoided testing ground in his career thus far, but his full brother, Boom To Bust won on heavy so I am willing to take a chance on that front, the price certainly makes up for any such doubts and while luck is always a prerequisite in a race of this nature I am quietly confident of a big run from him. The other one I quite liked in the race was Gabriels Lad for the grossly underrated Dennis Coakley, who had two runners go close in valuable races last Saturday (at 33/1 and 9/1 respectively). My selection has run twice over 7 furlongs at Ascot and those two runs yielded a 1st and a 2nd, with the win coming on soft ground, which he is likely to get again tomorrow. The 2nd place came behind one of tomorrows rivals, Redvers, where he was beaten a neck while giving the winner 4lbs, they are the same at the weights tomorrow but he is nearly twice the price of that rival tomorrow. My selection was quite well backed in the market before his run last time out at Leicester but never really recovered after missing the break. I think he is worth another a chance here and I think 25/1 is at least a few points too big.

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

5:00 Ascot - Triple Chocolate (20/1 Paddy Power) 1 pt Win

This one is a bit of a leap of faith as there are a lot of unknowns related to the selection but I do think my selection is potentially very nicely handicapped if and when everything clicks for him. He has been well backed on more than one occasion since springing a bit of a surprise when winning a Kempton maiden on his career debut. All his subsequent runs have been at that venue over a few different trips (7f-8f-10f) and I don't think he stayed 10 furlongs last time out. He now drops back to sprinting distances and I think a fast run race at a course like Ascot may see him to good effect, although this is largely conjecture, nevertheless the form of his maiden win looks very strong and off a mark of 72 it would be disappointing were he unable to win races. Turf and soft ground are also unknown territory but being by Danehill Dancer and out of a Pivotal mare there is reasonable grounds to assume he should go through it. I think he is worth a speculative interest in what looks a very competitive race.

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

3:00 Haydock - Mass Rally (15/2 Paddy Power) 2 pts Win

Intibaah looks a worthy favourite for this conditions race over 6 furlongs but there isn't a whole lot in this on official ratings and it is often worth taking on Meehan runners after a break and he may just need this on his seasonal debut up against a field of predominately race fit rivals. You could give a chance to pretty much any of the field but at the prices I am very keen on the chances of Mass Rally for the red hot Michael Dods yard, who are going along at an exceptional 27% strike rate so far this season, with 10 winners from 37 runners and a level stakes profit of 29.71. My selection has to put an awful performance last time out behind him, but that run was just too bad to be true and he was noticeably weak in the market beforehand and it is not the first time he has failed to impress at Doncaster. This looks a bit easier than some of the races he was campaigned in last year and with testing ground holding no fears and the yard in such exceptional form I think he can run a big race here.

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

5:10 Lingfield - Born To Surprise (6/1 Bet365) 1.5 pts Win

Ran his most encouraging race since joining his current yard last time out on the polytrack at this venue when getting within 3 lengths of Purcell, who is among the market leaders for the Victoria Cup tomorrow. This is the first time he has been dropped to a class 4 handicap and it represents a significant step down in class and probably the easiest task he has been set in his career thus far as he was considered good enough to run in Group races when a 3 year old with Micheal Bell. The yard have gone close without winning on a few occasions in the last couple of weeks and it would be disappointing were this one not able to figure at the business end here. I think 6/1 is well worth an interest as I would have had him in at nearer the 7/2 mark.