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Calculus' Flat Season 2014

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Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

3:50 Ascot - Burn The Boats (22/1 BetVictor) 1.25 pts Win 3:50 Ascot - Gabriels Lad (25/1 Bet365) 0.75 pts Win 5:00 Ascot - Triple Chocolate (20/1 Paddy Power) 1 pt Win 3:00 Haydock - Mass Rally (15/2 Paddy Power) 2 pts Win 5:10 Lingfield - Born To Surprise (6/1 Bet365) 1.5 pts Win
Best day for the thread thus far. Mass Rally never looked like winning and was beaten fair and square, although the way the race panned out did not really play to his strengths. It was a very messy race and it fell into the lap of the winner. My selection was quite weak in the market and it probably wasn't my smartest bet ever, but hindsight is a wonderful thing! Burn The Boats ran no sort of a race and is surely capable of better, he's one to tread carefully with for the time being but I do think there will be other days for him. Today was very much the day for Gabriels Lad on the other hand, as he sliced through the field under a super confident ride from George Baker to trounce the opposition, he was very well backed going off at 12/1 and he obviously excels in these conditions. A step up to Group level may not be too far off on the basis of today's showing. Triple Chocolate ran a great race and looked a likely winner just over a furlong out, however he just didn't have the requisite change of gear when it mattered and finished 4th, this was a definite step in the right direction and it will be interesting to see if he is kept to 6 furlongs now. For a horrible moment it looked like the one I backed last night, Trader Jack, was going to come through and sicken me but he was brushed aside by an impressive winner. Born To Surprise rounded off an excellent day with a game performance to get up by a short head. His main market rivals all disappointed and he got the run of the race, so I probably would not be queuing up to back him again off his revised mark but he will still be well handicapped on his historic form and this will have been a timely confidence boost. +23.5 pts on the day
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Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Nothing for tomorrow. FWIW I was keen on Fascinating Rock in the Derby Trial at Leopardstown, but that was yesterday when he was priced up at 3/1, he's now into 2/1 and that look about right to me so I will leave him.

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Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 7:50 Windsor: White Russian (7/1 Ladbrokes) 1pt Win Pulled too hard to get home over 10 furlongs on seasonal debut at this course and may have needed the outing anyway. In light of that performance a drop back to the mile looks a good move and I think the form of her run when 2nd to Tea In Transvaal at Salisbury at the back end of last season reads very well in the context of this race. The winner on that occasion looks a decent prospect and was good enough to get within a couple of lengths of the now Oaks favourite, Taghrooda, on her previous run. While my selection was well beaten into 2nd by the aforementioned Tea In Transvaal, that form still looks as good as anything on offer here and the 5th placed horse (beaten a long way) from that race won his maiden next time out with the 4th placed horse (finished ~12 lengths behind my selection) has looked competitive off a mark of 59 since. Therefore I think a mark of 64 should be workable here, with soft ground no problem, I think 7/1 is a bit too big and have her down as 5/1 fav on my book.

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Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 7:20 Windsor: Fire Ship (8/1 Bet365) 0.75pt Win Ocean Tempest looks a worthy favourite here as he has been very progressive since returning from his time in Dubai, but he has a penalty for his win at this level last time and is probably worth opposing at the prices. I quite like Fire Ship for William Knight who has a win at Group 3 level to his name and is not penalised for that success at this lower grade. He generally excels on ground with a bit of cut and has won twice and finished second once from 3 runs over this course and distance. He was possibly a bit disappointing last time out, but he ran a better race than the form figures suggest in a higher grade and on his seasonal debut (his record fresh is not great). He looks to have a definite chance here and I would expect him to go off a couple of points shorter.

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Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Apologies in advance for short write ups... 1:45 York - Rye House As I thought may happen this one looks like going off at stupidly short price for a race of this nature with Paddy Power now going 5/2, so I am happy to have got on when I did as the value has now evaporated completely. I think Rye House looks a like a typical Stoute improver and he could well still have a good bit of further progression in him at the age of 5 after 6 career starts. He will need to, in order to defy a 10lb rise for his win at this venue on his last career start nearly a year ago. But he looks to go well fresh and soft ground is no problem while this race historically goes to an unexposed horse from a big stable, with Sir Michael Stoute having won it in 2010. I think he has a rock solid chance, deserves to be fav and should go very close. 2:15 York - Yeeoow 2:15 York - Secret Witness A very difficult looking handicap with any number who can be given realistic chances and the fact that it is 10/1 the field tells the story pretty much. Yeeoow looks certain to run his race as he has progressed with each start and a reproduction of his latest effort in a big field when leading home his group to finish 2nd off this mark would see him go close here, Karl Burke continues in good form and young Joey Haynes looks to have struck up a good relationship with the horse and the 5lb claim could be vital here. Secret Witness is more of a leap of faith as there have been few highlights for him since he won this race two years ago but he has probably been mostly too high in the weights for a lot of that time. He ran a couple of decent races last year such as when finishing 3rd in the Portland at Doncaster off a 4lb higher mark and he clearly excels with some cut. I think he should be fully prepared after two previous starts this season and he could go well at a decent price. 3:15 York - Es Que Love I thought this one ran a very decent race when chasing home Hamza last time out, while that was a Group 3 and this is a Group 2, I think either Hamza or the 3rd horse, Aljamaheer, would be amongst the favourites for this race were they in the field so 20/1 has to be some value in that context. I also like the fact that my selection was well backed last time on debut for Clive Cox so it is not impossible that there may be some improvement to be found on historical form, especially now that the focus is returned to sprint trips for the first time since the horse's three year old career.

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Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Reasoning

One for tomorrow: 5:00 York - Cape Tribulation (12/1 Ladbrokes) 1.5pts Win
Only run twice on the flat in nearly 5 years but obviously a very capable national hunt performer on his day. Both of those two runs were at tomorrows venue over a couple of furlongs further and off a 1lb higher mark. He ran respectably in both cases, particularly when only going down by a head on the second occasion, with that run coming on the back of over 120 days off the track and he is running after a similar break tomorrow. He's been mixing it with the best over obstacles, admittedly with mixed results but nevertheless a mark of 79 really does look potentially lenient to me, even though the trip may be on the sharp side at the age of 10. I think the stand out price of 12/1 looks well worth an interest and had him down a good bit smaller in price at around 7/1.
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Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 More reasoning :hope

And two more: 3:05 York - Alfred Hutchinson (14/1 Ladbrokes) 0.5pts Win 8:35 Newmarket - Sir Pedro ?(11/1 William Hill) 1pt Win
Alfred Hutchinson has never really matched his smart AW form on the turf but he has run a couple of good races at York with a placed effort and a win to his name. He has continued to look quite progressive on the poly track over the winter and put on some noteworthy performances such as when hammering a bunch of subsequent winners at Lingfield in January or when not too far behind Captain Cat and Highland Knight off levels last time out. While he is patently a better horse on the AW than on turf on all known form his handicap mark on turf reflects this and while it is a competitive race it doesn't look like too many of the opposition are likely to improve massively on what they have shown thus far in their careers, so I think he is worth a small bet at a reasonable price. Robert Cowell has continued to show that he is a dab hand with sprinters this season and of his last 7 runners he's had 4 seconds and 3 winners, so his string are obviously flying at the moment and on that basis alone I am very keen on the chances of his runner, Sir Pedro in the last at Newmarket. The horse was campaigned on the AW for his first 4 runs for the yard ran ok a couple of times but never really excelled, those are the only 4 runs he's had on the AW in his 18 race career and he may not be quite as good as he is on turf. His first run for the yard was on turf at Windsor and the customary hood (worn on last 10 starts prior to that) was missing, he went on to get worked up in the stalls before being too keen in front and trailing in last, a performance I am happy to disregard. As a result of that he has dropped down to a mark of 76 - just 2lbs higher than when taking a similar race to this a Doncaster at the back end of last season and he indicated his time might be near when finishing 2nd at Brighton last time out after being well backed. This seems like a good race for the grade with a couple of the opposition possibly capable of improving beyond Class 4 handicaps, however I cannot ignore the chances of my selection at 11/1 and think he can go close here.
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Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Nothing today. Cape Tribulation never looked like winning and was well beaten. Alfred Hutchinson looked like going close but didn't get a great deal of luck in running and finished in mid division, he should be able to pick up a race or two on turf on the basis of this performance. Sir Pedro once again demonstrated his dislike for confined spaces when getting worked up as soon as he was put in the stalls, he was up with the pace for most of the way but looked a touch one paced when the pace increased, he's clearly a tricky character but there could be a few races in him if connections can figure out the key to him. -3pts on the day

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Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Apologies for not getting a chance to post up any reasoning but things went a bit crazy with work from last night to this afternoon. Because of work I could not watch the races live but suffice to say it was another frustrating day with all three selections going off at considerably shorter prices than I backed them at last night. Fanzine went close but did not have enough to beat the short priced fav, Lilac Lace is fast developing into a cliff horse for me and I may have to cut my losses and leave her alone from now on. -4.25 pts on the day

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Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Two that I really fancy for tomorrow, may land on a couple of other selections but will get these up now: 2:40 Newbury - Chil The Kite (16/1 William Hill) 2pts Win 3:30 Newmarket - Charles Molson (12 Bet365) 3pts Win

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Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

2:40 Newbury - Chil The Kite (16/1 William Hill) 2pts Win 3:30 Newmarket - Charles Molson (12 Bet365) 3pts Win
Charles Molson has been in my notebook ever since looking unlucky in running on his second career start. He then broke his maiden with relative ease on his following start and then ran as well as could be expected against a couple of higher rated rivals in non handicap company at Newmarket at the back end of last season. His return to action this season looked quite promising to my eye as he was noticeably weak in the market on the early prices before running with credit to finish in fourth looking like he would come on for the run as he was up with the pace for most of the way but did no have the change of gear when it mattered. That form is already looking decent as the winner has come out and run well twice in non handicap company and the one that was just behind him, Kickboxer, has gone close twice in tough handicaps. I think my selection has the potential to be quite a smart sprinter and he could be contesting better races than this by the end of the season. Chil The Kite jumps off the page for me in this company, his four runs last season came in a Group 1 (twice), a Group 2 and a Group 3 and he ran at least respectably on each occasion. He's now in a Class 2 handicap against a field of talented but largely exposed performers and there is certainly nothing that has shown anything approaching the class of form that my selection has in the book. He has to bounce back from a few disappointing efforts at Meydan but Dubai may not have been his cup of tea for whatever reason and his most recent run at Lingfield was his only ever career start on an AW surface and is probably best overlooked. The trip looks a bit short on all known form but he won a listed race over this distance as a 3yo and I think he may be ok provided they go a good gallop, particularly as few of his main rivals have questions to answer at this distance too. I would have expected him to be a good bit shorter and definitely amongst the first 4 or 5 in the betting, so I think 16/1 is well worth an interest.
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Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Another nice Saturday :D Chil The Kite confirmed that he is cut above a handicap class when clearing away after a typically confident hold up ride from George Baker, there was a bit of a rule 4 on the 16/1 but the 11.2/1 that it worked out to still beat the SP and I would have probably have backed him at that price with the full field lining up, so happy out. Toofi looked a likely winner in the final furlong and I would imagine he traded quite short in running but was beaten close home, I think the first four home all look potentially useful and should be winning their fair share of races this season. Charles Molson was a touch disappointing but he only got put into the race until it was too late and it was surprising to see him be ridden so patiently for me. He didn't get the breaks when he needed them but ran reasonably well nevertheless, I still think he could be worth following for the time being and I think he will win off this mark before too long. Commanche went off at 10/1 and came to win the race at the furlong pole but he was soon passed by the winner, Duke Cosimo, who looks a horse that could be worth following now with David Barron, he's certainly bred in the purple and may well be capable of defying a rise in the weights on the back of this win. +17.40 pts on the day

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