Calculus' Flat Season 2014

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Two for tomorrow: 3:40 Ripon - Iffranesia (4/1 Bet365) 1.25 pts Win 5:10 Ripon - Adams Ale (7/1 Bet365) 0.75 pts Win

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Running Totals (excluding bets placed for tomorrow) Starting Bank = 100pts Bets = 35 Winners = 4 Staked = 39.50pts Returned = 66.40pts P/L = +26.90pts ROI = +68.10% Strike Rate = 11.43% Quite pleased with those figures after 2 weeks, keeping the strike rate above 10% is likely to be tough to maintain but long may it continue :hope

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Reasoning for tomorrows selections: 3:40 Ripon - Iffranesia (4/1 Bet365) 1.25pts Win Was seriously progressive on the all weather over the winter, winning four times and finishing second twice in seven starts. She translated that improvement to the turf at the first time of asking at Nottingham last time, and the 3^rd place horse from that race has won since, so I think she may well have more to give off this mark. The step up to 6 furlongs looks a good move as she generally stays on strongly over the 5 furlong trip, the stable continue in good form and this is a good opportunity for her here against her own sex. I had her much closer to Bondesire in the betting and I think 4/1 is around a point too big. 5.10 Ripon - Adams Ale (7/1 Bet365) 0.75pts Win Has dropped back down to an attractive looking mark and hinted his turn may be close when running best race for a while over a furlong further at tomorrow’s venue last time out. Was beaten a short head off a two pound higher mark over the 5 furlongs at Ripon last season, so he seemingly goes well here. Even though his two wins came over 6 furlongs he showed good speed to lead most of the way last time. I had him in at around 5/1 so I think he’s worth a small interest at the price.

[theatrain]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Doing well calculus. I enjoy reading your reasoning. Hope your profits continue.

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Cheers, good to know that someone reads my ramblings anyway :ok

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 One for tomorrow: 8:05 Windsor - Cafe Society (2/1 Bet365) 2pts Win Annoyed I don't have an 888 account, as 7/2 was available about an hour ago and that would have been real lump on material, anyway 2/1 is still value in my eyes. May have another one for tomorrow but will wait to see how the market develops first.

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

Reasoning for tomorrows selections: 3:40 Ripon - Iffranesia (4/1 Bet365) 1.25pts Win Was seriously progressive on the all weather over the winter, winning four times and finishing second twice in seven starts. She translated that improvement to the turf at the first time of asking at Nottingham last time, and the 3^rd place horse from that race has won since, so I think she may well have more to give off this mark. The step up to 6 furlongs looks a good move as she generally stays on strongly over the 5 furlong trip, the stable continue in good form and this is a good opportunity for her here against her own sex. I had her much closer to Bondesire in the betting and I think 4/1 is around a point too big. 5.10 Ripon - Adams Ale (7/1 Bet365) 0.75pts Win Has dropped back down to an attractive looking mark and hinted his turn may be close when running best race for a while over a furlong further at tomorrow’s venue last time out. Was beaten a short head off a two pound higher mark over the 5 furlongs at Ripon last season, so he seemingly goes well here. Even though his two wins came over 6 furlongs he showed good speed to lead most of the way last time. I had him in at around 5/1 so I think he’s worth a small interest at the price.

Iffranesia was weak in the market but ran a decent race finishing behind the well backed Love Island and the short priced fav with a nice break back to the rest. She looked a bit of an awkward ride but this was probably another (small) step forward and she looks just as effective on turf as on artificial surfaces. She will probably be left on this mark and may be of interest again if found a suitable opportunity. Adams Ale was a real hard luck story as he was backed into 9/4 fav and was badly hampered when just beginning to make his challenge, Paul Mulrennan did well to stay on board and he got him back organised to fly home although his chance was gone. He lost a good few lengths when hampered and was beaten 2 lengths, I think it's safe enough to say he would have won with a clear run but c'est la vie. -2pts on the day

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

One for tomorrow: 8:05 Windsor - Cafe Society (2/1 Bet365) 2pts Win

Cafe Society has become something of a perennial hard luck story since winning a handicap in very taking fashion at Salisbury just under a year ago. Normally I would not be very keen on taking such a short price about a horse with this sort of profile but he will surely get few better chances than that which he has tomorrow. Last time out he ran in a far more competitive (and higher quality) handicap than this and would have gone a good bit closer with a clear passage. He now drops back down to a Class 3 handicap for the first time since he was victorious at Salisbury last year and another quite big positive for me is the replacement of Jamie Spencer with Jim Crowley in the saddle. I think there are some quite big question marks over many his main rivals tomorrow: Ballinderry Boy (trip), Jakey (has only ever won fresh and couldn't handle the step up to this class last time out), Nicholascopernicus (ground). Kuda Huraa from the Alan King yard looks like the most likely danger and anything that they keep in for the flat season is usually worth taking note of, but that one does have a tendency to throw in some shockers and I am fairly confident that there is a big enough gulf in class between him and my selection anyway. I think the price that is now available for my selection (around 6/4) is more in line with his chances and if he cannot win here it will be disappointing.

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Second one for tomorrow: 4:20 Redcar - Avon Breeze (16/1 Bet365) 0.75pts Win The one I was originally interested in this race was Another Wise Kid, who I thought was a real eye catcher last time out at Doncaster, he's gone up 1lb for finishing third there but still looks feasibly handicapped and should go close. He is priced up accordingly however and there doesn't appear to be a great deal of value to be had at his current best price of 7/2. I do think there is some value in the current price of 16/1 about the Richard Whitaker trained Avon Breeze. My selection finished towards the rear on her seasonal debut and although she has won on her debut before, the yard had another one (Love Island - who had also won fresh before) show marked improvement from the first start of the season when well backed before winning at Ripon on the second run of the season today. I think my selection my have just been a few pounds too high in the handicap for most of last season but she ran some valiant races in defeat, most notably when going close in the Great St. Wilfrid consolation race at Ripon (the only time she has been ridden by tomorrows jockey). She is now dropped back to 5 furlongs (the only distance she has ever won at) and down to a mark of 79 which is 2lbs above the mark she last won off but it is also the lowest mark she has run off since that victory.

[santos_]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Best of luck with this going nicely enough at the moment :clap

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

Second one for tomorrow: 4:20 Redcar - Avon Breeze (16/1 Bet365) 0.75pts Win The one I was originally interested in this race was Another Wise Kid, who I thought was a real eye catcher last time out at Doncaster, he's gone up 1lb for finishing third there but still looks feasibly handicapped and should go close. He is priced up accordingly however and there doesn't appear to be a great deal of value to be had at his current best price of 7/2. I do think there is some value in the current price of 16/1 about the Richard Whitaker trained Avon Breeze. My selection finished towards the rear on her seasonal debut and although she has won on her debut before, the yard had another one (Love Island - who had also won fresh before) show marked improvement from the first start of the season when well backed before winning at Ripon on the second run of the season today. I think my selection my have just been a few pounds too high in the handicap for most of last season but she ran some valiant races in defeat, most notably when going close in the Great St. Wilfrid consolation race at Ripon (the only time she has been ridden by tomorrows jockey). She is now dropped back to 5 furlongs (the only distance she has ever won at) and down to a mark of 79 which is 2lbs above the mark she last won off but it is also the lowest mark she has run off since that victory.

:puke

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Two small interests for tomorrow: 6:45 Warwick - Daylight (7/1 Paddy Power) 0.75pts Win 5:20 Newcastle - Seldom ?(12/1 Bet365) 0.75pts Win

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Apologies, but there is actually one more for tomorrow, I had it in my tracker but only just noticed he was out tomorrow and cannot leave him at the price: 2:30 Nottingham - Gold Club ?(6/1 Ladbrokes) 1.5pts Win

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

Second one for tomorrow: 4:20 Redcar - Avon Breeze (16/1 Bet365) 0.75pts Win

8:05 Windsor - Cafe Society (2/1 Bet365) 2pts Win

Not going to even talk about Avon Breeze, suffice to say that she finished second to the one I had initially intended to back, beaten by a neck. Cafe Society got the job done with the minimum of fuss as he was entitled to do on all known form, really was a mad decision by someone at 888 to put him up at 7/2 and generally reinforces my feeling that many "bookmakers" are lost these days when they don't have an established market on Betfair to use as a reference point. Small rule 4 on the price but certainly beats the SP of evens. Things are going good but with a bit more luck they could be going really good. +2.85pts on the day

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

6:45 Warwick - Daylight (7/1 Paddy Power) 0.75pts Win 5:20 Newcastle - Seldom ?(12/1 Bet365) 0.75pts Win

Daylight runs in a competitive 6 furlong sprint and you could give realistic chances to at least three quarters of the field. I think my selection is probably more open to improvement than most of these though as he is one of only three 4yos in the line up. He only has a maiden win to his name but has only had seven career starts and has dropped to his lowest mark thus far and is now one pound lower than when beaten a length at Bath last season. While the form of most of his races last season does not look particularly strong I don't think that this looks anything out of the ordinary for the grade and it would be disappointing were he not to have some progression in him this season. If he is ready to go first time up he should be capable of playing a hand here with the step up to 6 furlongs a potential source of improvement. Seldom was well beaten on his return to action at tomorrows venue last time out but he looked to be pulling double in behind the pace setters when they turned into the home straight. He possibly did not get the gaps when he needed them but I also think he could have been given a more proactive ride and is probably better judged on his run three starts ago over a couple of furlongs further when a good 3rd after looking to hold every chance at the furlong pole before tiring close home. He looks far more at home over tomorrows trip of a mile and while you have to go back a long way to find his best form, I think that aforementioned run from last year was a fair indication that he still retains a good bit of ability despite his advancing years. This is a pretty poor race and is unlikely to take a lot of winning, while he is by no means one for large stakes, I think he can go close here and might be a couple of points too big.

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

2:30 Nottingham - Gold Club ?(6/1 Ladbrokes) 1.5pts Win

Put this one in my tracker after a staying on third over a furlong shorter last time out. That looked a decent race for the grade and the first two home look like young sprinters who can win their connections some prize money this season. These big field three year old handicaps are very difficult to work out at the best of times and even more so at this stage of the season, but I think my selection looks guaranteed to run his race with Paul Mulrennan keeping the ride and the McMahon team beginning to look like they may be coming to hand in the last couple of weeks. It would be disappointing if he cannot go close here and I actually think he should be clear favourite.

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

6:45 Warwick - Daylight (7/1 Paddy Power) 0.75pts Win 5:20 Newcastle - Seldom ?(12/1 Bet365) 0.75pts Win

2:30 Nottingham - Gold Club ?(6/1 Ladbrokes) 1.5pts Win

Daylight is a non runner now that they have abandoned racing at Warwick. Seldom was very well backed on course and was ridden a lot more prominently than on his previous start, he held every chance approaching the final furlong but didn't finish his race off as well as a few others and finished 4th beaten around 2 lengths. This was improved form but he will do well to find many better opportunities than this in handicap company. Gold Club was well backed on the early prices but was then weak in the market on course. He finished 5th and looked to be beaten fair and square and there don't look to be any real excuses, he might have seen a bit too much daylight but it was essentially a disappointing run for me and I won't be in a rush to be backing him again. -2.25pts on the day Nothing for tomorrow, apart from a couple of races at Kempton in the evening the quality is pretty dire and best avoided I think.

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Two for tomorrow: 4:25 Goodwood - Marsh Daisy (10/1 Ladbrokes) 1pt Win 5:35 Goodwood - Heartsong (7/1 SkyBet) 1.5pts Win

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 One more for tomorrow: 5:10 Ayr - Le Chat D'Or (11/2 Paddy Power) 0.75pts Win Write ups to follow..

[Sheerluck Holmes]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Some great stuff in here mate, keep up the excellent work.

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

5:35 Goodwood - Heartsong (7/1 SkyBet) 1.5pts Win

I’m genuinely very surprised at the price of this one in the betting, while it was by no means a great race that he won last time out at Doncaster it was the manner in which he did it that marked him down as a potentially very well handicapped horse for me. With a quarter of a mile to run he looked to be travelling much better than anything else but he was blocked off when making his challenge on two occasions and must have lost at the very least two lengths as a result. When blocked off on the second occasion there was only around half a furlong left to run and if you had backed him you would have been cursing your luck, however he was switched round horses and flew home to win by half a length; for me that was a seriously impressive performance. It is also worth noting that my selection was running off a mark of 84 this time last year and he is now rated a whole 16lbs lower than that, so he has to be potentially very well handicapped. A good bit of that drop in the weights came on the back of a fruitless spell on the AW over the winter, a surface he has never won on, and he then won on his first run back on turf. When you add into the mix that the Gallagher yard look to be hitting form with 2 wins and 2 places from their last 4 runners his chances look far better than that of a 7/1 shot. The favourite, Perfect Muse, looks way too short for me, as he has had a couple of similar opportunities since qualifying for handicaps and was beaten into second by quite exposed sorts on both of occasions, he has crept up the weights as a result and this is probably a bit tougher than the race he was second in last time out. In summary, I think my selection has outstanding claims and were it not for the fact that it is an apprentice race at Goodwood, where he will undoubtedly need some luck in running, I would have considered having a maximum bet on him.

Two for tomorrow: 4:25 Goodwood - Marsh Daisy (10/1 Ladbrokes) 1pt Win

Looks to have been a very hot race she finished fourth in on her debut as the second place filly has gone on to win in listed company and the winner has gone on to be placed in the Cheshire Oaks. My selection showed a very likeable attitude to win by a short head at Ascot last time out and I think she was possibly caught out by the fact that her rival was brought with a challenge down the middle of the track, but when the two runners came closer together she really knuckled down and was probably value for a little bit more than the slim margin she won by. I also think it is worth noting that she is only 3 years old and was beating a 4 year old filly last time out and given the time of the year and the fact that she readily out battled her elder (with more race experience as well) shows she has a big engine in my opinion. She can only improve from that experience after just two career starts. Hughie Morrsion is not the type of trainer to go tipping at windmills with his horses and I think that he could have found a winnable handicap opportunity for this one off a mark of 87, a mark which could potentially take a big hit tomorrow even were she not to win, as she is up against a couple of 96 rated fillies, so I think the trainer must think she is up to listed class at least. It is a difficult race to call as there is limited form to go on, but I think my selection is a really likeable type and is capable of going close in this company.

5:10 Ayr - Le Chat D'Or (11/2 Paddy Power) 0.75pts Win

Was a very consistent sort last season but only finished with one victory to his name, that win was over tomorrow’s course and distance on soft ground – conditions he is likely to get again tomorrow. I think his last run from last season when third at Nottingham off the same mark as tomorrow, beaten 1 length, was a fair indication that there could still be some races in him despite his raising mark. Particularly keen on the fact that he generally runs a very good race on his seasonal debut with a win and a second (beaten a short head) in the last two seasons. The two horses at the top of the market have question marks over them for me: Busatto, won well on the last two occasions but this is his third run in nine days and I am sceptical whether he can keep it going for much longer; Uncle Dermot, is similarly turned out again quickly after he was mightily impressive at this course just today and I would not be surprised if connections turn him out again under a penalty tomorrow after an 8 length romp, however he has never won off a mark this high and this will be the first time he has raced in Class 3 company in his 47 career starts thus far. The Micheal Dods yard have been firing on all cylinders so far this season and I think my selection is capable of continuing their fine run of form, I had him priced up around 4/1 or 9/2 so he is worth a small interest.

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

Some great stuff in here mate' date=' keep up the excellent work.[/quote'] Thank you sir, hopefully I can keep it going for a bit longer before it all comes tumbling down... :p

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Just thought I'd mention that I was also quite keen on the chances of Cricklewood Green in the 7:35 at Sandown, but 3 bets is already too many for a relatively mediocre Thursday and I will take a watching brief, I do think he has been a bit overlooked in the market and should be winning some races this season.

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Two seconds and a winner today... Will round it all up later, just want to say Marsh Daisy is a serious machine and is definitely a filly with a future Haven't gone through all the cards for tomorrow but have one at Goodwood that has to be backed now: 4:35 Goodwood: Discussiontofollow (10/1 Ladbrokes) 2pts Win

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Heartsong looked to travel best of all but was no match for a relatively easy winner and she just got the better of a bunch finish for second, she might have seen a bit too much daylight and I am not sure if Goodwood is her ideal course, if she is left on her current mark she should be cashing in sooner or later. I thought Marsh Daisy could be a nice filly but it looks like she could be even better than I had thought, she simply oozed class as she effortlessly brushed aside a decent field. She's one to keep close tabs on with the trainer talking of the Yorkshire Oaks as a target. There was a 10% rule 4 on the price but it still beat the SP. On a side note, Hughie Morrision is in exceptional form at the moment and I don't think there are many better trainers for placing their horses intelligently, the fact that they often sneak in under the radar to a certain extent means there is often some value to be had too, although with him firing in a cross card treble today his runners are now likely to be short enough for the next few days at least. Le Chat D'Or was the only one who could get remotely close to the winner, Uncle Dermot, who was again very impressive and looks to have improved massively all of a sudden. I thought my selection was going to make a race of it when making his move after being held up but he was simply beaten by the better horse on the day, there was a good gap back to the rest and he may well be up to winning off this mark but the fact that he generally performs to his best first time out suggests there may not be a lot more in terms of improvement next time up. +6.75pts on the day

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Some running totals (always easier after a winner :D) Not including the bet already placed for tomorrow Starting Bank = 100pts Bets = 45 Winners = 6 Staked = 50.50pts Returned = 81.80pts P/L = +31.30pts ROI = +61.98% Strike Rate = 13.33%

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Just going to leave it as the one selection tomorrow, nothing else really appeals massively on the afternoon cards and I cannot be bothered trawling a load of low grade handicaps at Musselburgh and Pontefract at this hour of the evening...

4:35 Goodwood: Discussiontofollow (10/1 Ladbrokes) 2pts Win

This looks a very hot race with a good few unexposed sorts and last time winners. I am really keen on the chances of the Micheal Murphy trained Discussiontofollow who I think looks every inch a group class sprinter in the making. My selection was a revelation over the winter on the AW and I think his defeat of Absolutely So at Kempton in January reads very well in the context of this race. It's hard to know how much he actually had in hand on that occasion, but one thing is certain it was definitely a lot more than the neck margin he won by (probably a lot, lot more) as Shane Kelly did not move a muscle in winning very cheekily. The second place horse from that race has run well several times since, most recently when winning well off a 9lb higher mark than when second to my selection. Discussiontofollow races off a mark of 88 tomorrow and I think that is definitely within the range of his ability on what we have seen so far and after only 6 career starts there may well be more improvement to come. He was a tad disappointing back on the turf at Windsor last time out but he never really looked at home at the course and I am willing to forgive that run for whatever reason. Also he was very well backed before being taken out of a race at Ascot a couple of weeks ago, suggesting that connections believe there are races to be won with him on turf. He's likely to face soft ground for the first time in his career tomorrow but being out of an Intikhab mare there is definitely reason to believe he should handle it on breeding. I think he could possibly be a bit better than a hanidcapper and should be a lot closer to the top of the market here.

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

Just going to leave it as the one selection tomorrow, nothing else really appeals massively on the afternoon cards and I cannot be bothered trawling a load of low grade handicaps at Musselburgh and Pontefract at this hour of the evening... This looks a very hot race with a good few unexposed sorts and last time winners. I am really keen on the chances of the Micheal Murphy trained Discussiontofollow who I think looks every inch a group class sprinter in the making. My selection was a revelation over the winter on the AW and I think his defeat of Absolutely So at Kempton in January reads very well in the context of this race. It's hard to know how much he actually had in hand on that occasion, but one thing is certain it was definitely a lot more than the neck margin he won by (probably a lot, lot more) as Shane Kelly did not move a muscle in winning very cheekily. The second place horse from that race has run well several times since, most recently when winning well off a 9lb higher mark than when second to my selection. Discussiontofollow races off a mark of 88 tomorrow and I think that is definitely within the range of his ability on what we have seen so far and after only 6 career starts there may well be more improvement to come. He was a tad disappointing back on the turf at Windsor last time out but he never really looked at home at the course and I am willing to forgive that run for whatever reason. Also he was very well backed before being taken out of a race at Ascot a couple of weeks ago, suggesting that connections believe there are races to be won with him on turf. He's likely to face soft ground for the first time in his career tomorrow but being out of an Intikhab mare there is definitely reason to believe he should handle it on breeding. I think he could possibly be a bit better than a hanidcapper and should be a lot closer to the top of the market here.

Non-runner First one for tomorrow is easy though :p: 2:05 Haydock - Discussiontofollow (8/1 Coral) 2.5pts Win

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Going to have a small saver on another one in the same race: 2:05 - Go Far (20/1 Ladbrokes) 0.5pts Win Be back with reasoning and a couple more selections in a few hours...

[calculus]

Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Ok, so the "couple more selections" has ballooned a little bit: 2:50 Catterick – Hadaj (6/1 BetVictor) 2pts Win 4:20 Haydock – Black Schnapps (9/1 Coral) 1.5pts Win 4:40 Goodwood – Slip Sliding Away (8/1 Bet365) 1.5pts Win 3:40 Beverley – Sea Wolf (15/2 Bet365) 1pt Win 3:55 Curragh – Princess Loulou (14/1 Coral) 1pt Win Reasoning to follow once I get myself motivated with a beer or two :loon