laybackandrelax Posted July 26, 2014 Share Posted July 26, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Patience allways pays out at the end.Congratiulations and thanks for sharing! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted July 26, 2014 Author Share Posted July 26, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Cheers. Real roller coaster of emotions this afternoon after just three races with bets in... Feel a lot better now anyway ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted July 26, 2014 Author Share Posted July 26, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Heavy Metal does me a big favor with a great performance to win the International Handicap at 33/1, Majestic Moon also ran a big race leading for a long way but couldn't keep up the pace, he probably set things up nicely for Heavy Metal in the process though. Zanty ran on well without threatening to snatch a place on the line. Survived and Stealth Missile were both well beaten. +23pts on the day :cow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted July 26, 2014 Author Share Posted July 26, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Totals after 12 weeks Starting Bank = 100pts Bets = 176 Winners = 26 Staked = 240.00pts Returned = 350.08pts P/L = 110.08pts ROI = 45.87% Strike Rate = 14.77% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted July 26, 2014 Author Share Posted July 26, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 One for tomorrow: 3:05 Ascot - Whispering Warrior (10/1 Ladbrokes) 1.5pts Win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted July 26, 2014 Author Share Posted July 26, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Also tomorrow: 3:40 Ascot - Autumns Blush (17/2 BetVictor) 1pt Win And two in the big field sprint handicap: 5:20 Ascot - Barnet Fair (9/1 William Hill) 1.75pts Win 5:20 Ascot - Piazon (16/1 Bet365) 1.25pts Win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted July 27, 2014 Author Share Posted July 27, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 One for tomorrow: 3:05 Ascot - Whispering Warrior (10/1 Ladbrokes) 1.5pts Win NR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted July 27, 2014 Author Share Posted July 27, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Autumns Blush was again friendless in the market and again ran a similar race, it would be no surprise if everything "clicks" for her soon - it would also be no surprise if she is a bit better backed than she has been on her last two starts. Barnet Fair and Piazon both ran big races to finish 2nd and 4th respectively, don't think I would have picked the winner if I had ten picks in the race so probably better not to dwell on it... -4pts on the day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted July 27, 2014 Author Share Posted July 27, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Three I like tomorrow: 7:05 Windsor – Byrons Gold (10/1 Bet365) 1pt Win 3:30 Ayr – Mambo Rhythm (8/1 Bet365) 2pts Win 4:45 Lingfield – Red Runaway (17/2 BetVictor) 2pts Win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted July 28, 2014 Author Share Posted July 28, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Great ride from George Baker there on Red Runaway :clap Still one more to run later on, but I have had my first bet for tomorrow at Goodwood: 1:55 Goodwood - Salutation (10/1 SkyBet) 1.5pts Win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted July 28, 2014 Author Share Posted July 28, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Another one at Goodwood tomorrow: 4:50 Goodwood - Buckstay (10/1 Paddy Power) 1.5pts Win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted July 28, 2014 Author Share Posted July 28, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 And (probably) the last ones for tomorrow with two selections in the big field sprint handicap at Goodwood: 5:20 Goodwood - Tidals Baby (16/1 Paddy Power) 1.25pts Win 5:20 Goodwood - Threes Grand (33/1 Coral) 1pt Win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted July 28, 2014 Author Share Posted July 28, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 And (probably) the last ones for tomorrow with two selections in the big field sprint handicap at Goodwood: 5:20 Goodwood - Tidals Baby (16/1 Paddy Power) 1.25pts Win Tony Carroll and Raul Da Silva have teamed up to win this race for the last two seasons and I see no reason why they cannot repeat the dose again with last year's winner Tidals Baby. My selection is now 8lbs higher than for that win last year but he subsequently ran well when placed at tomorrows venue off a 2lb higher mark than tomorrow and on that evidence I think he is feasibly weighted tomorrow. His run at Windsor last time out was encouraging and this will have been the long term target so reasonable to think there is some more improvement to come on the back of that run. I think 16/1 is definitely too big and he should run a big race. I also quite liked Tony Carroll's other runner, Valmina who is a massive price but a lot of luck in running would be needed for him to win even if he consented to perform to the best of his ability and I will give him a miss. 5:20 Goodwood - Threes Grand (33/1 Coral) 1pt Win Not really too many positives to go on so far this season but has now dropped down to a very lenient looking mark as a result. Any of the pick of her form from last season (when rated a high of 85) or her juvenile days (when rated a high of 91) makes her look very nicely handicapped off 73 tomorrow. She was never put into the race in any meaningful way last time out and trainer went close in this race last year. Both career wins came on soft ground but has run well without winning on firmer ground, Nicky Mackay has won on the filly before and I think they could spring a surprise here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted July 29, 2014 Author Share Posted July 29, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Three I like tomorrow: 7:05 Windsor – Byrons Gold (10/1 Bet365) 1pt Win 3:30 Ayr – Mambo Rhythm (8/1 Bet365) 2pts Win 4:45 Lingfield – Red Runaway (17/2 BetVictor) 2pts Win Red Runaway won, other two were not particularly good... +14pts on the day EDIT: Profit should be 14pts not 16pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted July 29, 2014 Author Share Posted July 29, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 No winners today, Buckstay went very close but was just edged out.. -5.25 points on the day On to tomorrow: Goodwood 2:30 - Red Galileo (11/1 BetVictor) 1.5pts Win Goodwood 1.55 - Presto Volante (18/1 BetVictor) 1pt Win Probably have one more selection later Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted July 29, 2014 Author Share Posted July 29, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Goodwood 5:25 - Gravitational (18/1 Paddy Power) 2.5pts Win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted July 29, 2014 Author Share Posted July 29, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Goodwood 5:25 - Gravitational (18/1 Paddy Power) 2.5pts Win A typically tight handicap with 9lbs separating the 20 runners. Top weight Englishman looks to be coming to hand now and should go close if retaining the ability he showed as a 2yo, he is probably short enough in the betting though and this is no easier than the contests he has finished second in on his two most recent starts. Little Shambles has been well backed for the in form Mark Johnston but this is a tough race for a 3yo and the value may well be gone now anyway. The one that I am keen on is Chris Wall's Gravitational who was very well backed when stepped up to a mile on the AW last time out and I think a return to the specialist trip of 7 furlongs can see him go very close tomorrow. His career form figures over 7 furlongs are 03221 and he looks reasonably handicapped 2lbs higher than when winning at Yarmouth over 6 furlongs towards the end of last season. Ashley Morgan knows the horse well and his 3lb claim may well come in very handy in such a tightly knit handicap. It's quite a trappy race on the face of it but at the 18/1 I think he has a much better chance than his price suggests. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted July 30, 2014 Author Share Posted July 30, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Thought Gravitational was going to go very close when they turned in but there was no response when push came to shove at the two furlong pole. The other two were well beaten with something looking to be amiss with Red Galileo. -5pts on the day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted July 30, 2014 Author Share Posted July 30, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 First one tomorrow: 2:05 Goodwood - Madeed (8/1 William Hill) 3pts Win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted July 30, 2014 Author Share Posted July 30, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Nothing else I really like at Goodwood tomorrow but will take one at Epsom in the evening: 6:55 Epsom - Mime Dance (5/1 Ladbrokes) 2pts Win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted July 30, 2014 Author Share Posted July 30, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Early one for Friday at Goodwood. Betfred Mile - Our Channel (25/1 Bet365) 1.75pts Win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted July 31, 2014 Author Share Posted July 31, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 First one tomorrow: 2:05 Goodwood - Madeed (8/1 William Hill) 3pts Win Some quick reasoning, better late than never... Really like the form of his run at Royal Ascot last time out when second behind American Hope in the far side group and seventh over all. American Hope came out and ran very well at Ascot on the weekend, the third and fourth placed horses in that far side group have also franked the form with First Flight winning off 92 at Newmarket and Table Rock winning twice with the second victory coming in a listed contest. I think he should go very well here and if he runs up to his best it will take a well handicapped horse to beat him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted July 31, 2014 Author Share Posted July 31, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Madeed probably paid the price for being a bit keen early on as he was outstayed after getting to the front a furlong out, Nothing else I really like at Goodwood tomorrow but will take one at Epsom in the evening: 6:55 Epsom - Mime Dance (5/1 Ladbrokes) 2pts Win I think Mime Dance has a great chance dropped back down in class at a course he handles well. His last run at this course was a couple of grades higher than this when he finished sixth, one place ahead of Torchlighter, who has gone on to win twice and finish second once. He also finished sixth at Epsom in the same grade as today on his run prior to that and I think that looks like a really hot race for the grade with many of the horses that finished ahead of him having gone on to win at least once. His two subsequent runs have also not been devoid of promise and came in higher grades than today, this looks a much simpler assignment today and it would be disappointing were he not to run a big race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted July 31, 2014 Author Share Posted July 31, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Early one for Friday at Goodwood. Betfred Mile - Our Channel (25/1 Bet365) 1.75pts Win I was very surprised to see Our Channel available at such a big price for this. His three runs this season have seen him win the Epsom Derby Trial, well beaten in the Derby and finish second in a Group 3 in the USA. I think he could well be suited by a fast gallop at a mile after being campaigned at middle distances thus far in his 3 year old career. 3 year olds have a decent record in this race and he is the only one in the line up. I think he must have a better chance than his price suggests. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted July 31, 2014 Author Share Posted July 31, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Couple more for tomorrow, going to have another bet in Our Channel's race. 3:05 Goodwood - Pastoral Player (25/1 Ladbrokes) 1.25pts Win 4:50 Goodwood - This Time (16/1 Bet365) 1pt Win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted July 31, 2014 Author Share Posted July 31, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 A speculative one: 3:40 - Brown Sugar (33/1 William Hill) 0.75pts Win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted August 1, 2014 Author Share Posted August 1, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Forgot to add total for yesterday.. -5pts on the day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted August 1, 2014 Author Share Posted August 1, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Autumns Blush was again friendless in the market and again ran a similar race, it would be no surprise if everything "clicks" for her soon - it would also be no surprise if she is a bit better backed than she has been on her last two starts. This one is out in the first race at Newmarket this evening and she has been well backed early on, any semblance of value has now gone so I will not be getting involved but looks like today might be the day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted August 1, 2014 Author Share Posted August 1, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 3:05 Goodwood - Pastoral Player (25/1 Ladbrokes) 1.25pts Win A difficult horse to catch right but talented on his day, his run when midfield behind Louis The Pious in the Buckingham Palace Stakes is possibly better form than it looks on the face of it as he raced on the far side and the subsequent performances of many of the horses from that far side group have been very good (e.g. Table Rock, First Flight, American Hope, Madeed). He looks potentially very well weighted on his best form with the young apprentice taking off a handly 7lbs, the jockey has had four rides in public and won twice (both wins for Hughie Morrison). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus Posted August 1, 2014 Author Share Posted August 1, 2014 Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 A speculative one: 3:40 - Brown Sugar (33/1 William Hill) 0.75pts Win She is the second highest rated 3yo in the race on official ratings and the joint fourth highest rated overall, so I think she could have a better chance than the prices suggest. Has won at Goodwood before and Pat Dobbs knows the filly well, if she has trained on from 2yo to 3yo then she could spring a surprise in a race where there are no real standout performers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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