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Calculus' Flat Season 2014

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Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 First one for tomorrow: 2:55 Haydock - Educate (6/1 Paddy Power) 2pts Win Not best pleased to have missed the better prices on this one as I have been meaning to back him all day but will act now before he shortens up any more...

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Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 And the rest... 2.30 Newmarket - Nicholascopernicus (8/1 Paddy Power) 1.25pts Win 5:05 Haydock - Black Schnapps (20/1 Ladbrokes) 1pt Win 7:40 Ayr - Classy Anne (9/2 Bet365) 2pts Win Going to take a look at the Shergar Cup card now but it's unlikely I will be backing anything else

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Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

7:40 Ayr - Classy Anne (9/2 Bet365) 2pts Win
Jim Goldie's filly had a bone fragment surgically removed from her fetlock over the winter and she has returned as a transformed performer this season as she has gone up a whopping 25lbs in the handicap. I backed her last week at Hamilton where she put in a commanding performance to make most after being well backed and it looks unlikely that a 6lb rise will be sufficient to curtail her ascendency even with another step up in class tomorrow. A bit of give in the ground is ideal and she is very uncomplicated ride so I have no concerns with the presence of an apprentice in the plate (she's been apprentice ridden on all bar one start this season and Jack Garritty knows the filly well and has won on her before anyway).
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Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

2:55 Haydock - Educate (6/1 Paddy Power) 2pts Win
I think Educate has a good opportunity to open his account in group class today, his effort last time out when fourth under top weight in the John Smiths Cup was indicative that he is now hitting top gear. The best of his handicap form from this season or last season would give him a realistic chance here and he was campaigned in top class races over in Dubai. Hillstar looks the class act of the race but he is opposable at the prices with the trip possibly on the short side. Slight concern that they might not go much pace early on which would not be ideal for my selection but hopefully Amralah will go forward and make it a true test.
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Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

2:20 Haydock - Busatto (12/1 BetVictor) 1.25pts Win
I think Busatto has a decent chance in a wide open handicap here, he set some very testing fractions when finishing fourth and leading for a lot of the way at Goodwood last time and set the race up nicely for two of his stable mates in the process (finished 1st and 3rd). I think he will be to the fore again here but hopefully will be ridden with a touch more restraint, Fanning is on board today and that was generally a good indicator of Johnston's most fancied runner when he had multiple runners in the same race at Goodwood (although admittedly Michael Murphy does usually ride Salutation).
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Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

2.30 Newmarket - Nicholascopernicus (8/1 Paddy Power) 1.25pts Win
The ground looks to be key to Nicholascopernicus' chances as all his best form is on soft or heavy ground, so hopefully it will not have dried out too much this morning. He has dropped down to the sort of mark he should be able to win off if running to his best and although the trip may be a bit on the sharp side I think he can go very close provided there is no hanging around early on.
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Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 Oh dear. :sad Everything I backed today ran poorly and I feel like I am getting a lot of things wrong in the last few weeks, drying ground probably didn't help the cause of several of my selections (Black Schnapps and Classy Anne in particular). Need to cut back on some of the loose selections and staking and can hopefully get things back on track. -8.5pts on the day

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Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014 So it looks like the ground is going to be on the soft side at Leicester as they have just changed the going to Good to Soft with more rain around during the day, I think this is likely to be a big plus for both my selections...

3:00 Leicester - All Talk N No Do (16/1 BetVictor) 1pt Win
All Talk N No Do has been withdrawn due to quick ground on several occasions in the last few weeks even though his one win to date came on good to firm ground so connections must think he is a better horse with give in the ground. He is unexposed at this distance and the form of the race he ran in last time out looks very strong relative to today's opposition. If he does improve for the softer ground and step up in trip then I think he is potentially very nicely handicapped off 77 as it is only 3lbs higher than the mark he won off on debut this season and 1lb lower than the height of his rating as a juvenile - while it is probably not wise to read too much into his juvenile form he did run in some hot races and finished ahead of horses like Warrior Of Light and Arab Dawn - both those two are rated in the 90s now.
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Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

3:30 Leicester - Piazon (10/1 Bet365) 1pt Win
Now just 3lbs higher than when winning a slightly weaker race in good style at Windsor in May. His run last time out in a much hotter race than this suggested that he is back to his best and the yard are probably in the best form they have been all season. Louis Steward is an apprentice going places imo and he has been on board for 2 of my selections 3 career wins. Ground should suit perfectly and although the trip is a slight concern with all form over 5 furlongs so far this season, he stayed well enough to win over this distance as a juvenile so should not be unduly inconvenienced.
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Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

8:00 Thirsk - Ahoy There (11/1 BetVictor) 1pt Win
Well beaten on last run of 2yo career but that was in a good quality race, form of win in run previous to that looks pretty good in light of the subsequent progression of the 2nd and 3rd placed runners. Was withdrawn last week after being well backed and that is usually a good guide to the chances of Tom Tate runners so it seems that he may well be fit and ready to go tomorrow and the ground should be much more suitable for the son of Captain Rio tomorrow.
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Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

Fantastic results Calculus I really enjoy your in depth analysis on each selection Just can't understand why bookmakers haven't closed your accounts Keep up the good work
Thanks. Results aren't great at the moment though... I've had a few accounts restricted/closed in the past, I now bet to much smaller stakes than I did about 2 or 3 years ago and I take a few other measures to keep accounts open but it's always just a matter of time once you show them your not a complete mug punter and bet bigger than a tenner a point. Although my current run of losers and mindless selections is probably helping a bit! It would want to because I am running out of family members and friends who will let me open accounts in their name ;)
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Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

5:30 Carlisle - Thackeray (4/1 William Hill) 1pt Win
Lightly raced 7 year old who is running off the same mark as when a close second over this course and distance last time out. As with his previous start, when also second at Ayr, he was staying on very well late in the day there. Does have the look of a perennial eye catcher and it often can be dangerous to get too involved with such types, but he is now weighted lower than for either of his two career victories and looks potentially well handicapped. Slight concern that he has never won over this trip but the manner he was staying on the last twice suggests that stamina is not an issue, also disconcerting that the Fairhurst yard are yet to have a winner this season but they have very limited ammunition to work with and they did have a 33/1 shot, who was possibly a tad unlucky in running, finish second on Saturday.
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Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

2:40 Newmarket - Gworn (10/1 BetVictor) 1pt Win
Not a whole lot has gone to plan for Gworn so far this season, he was among the ante-post favs for the Lincoln but ended up missing the cut and then ran no sort of race when well beaten in the Spring Mile. He's been a mixed bag since then with a couple of half decent efforts and two less inspiring efforts but his run two starts back when 4th at Epsom looks like good form in relation to the opposition tomorrow with the 1st and 3rd having come out and won on their next runs. I suspect that the nature of the course probably was not particularly suitable there and I also think that may have been the case when well beaten last time out at Goodwood - interestingly the two Johnston horses that were well behind at Epsom turned the form around in no uncertain terms in that race at Goodwood. It is probably worth noting that his one previous run at Goodwood also resulted in him being well beaten and that run was preceded and proceeded by much better runs so it seems that he may not be suited by the more idiosyncratic courses - a view that is backed up by the fact that all his best form is on more conventional galloping tracks. He's now down to a mark 3lbs lower than his last winning mark and runs in a class 4 handicap for the first time since victorious at Leicester last season, Graham Lee was on board on that occasion and rides again tomorrow - he has ridden the horse to 2 of his 3 career wins. He should get the bit of cut in the ground that he needs to be seen to his best tomorrow and I think he makes a good bit of appeal at the prices with the top two in the market very short on what they have actually achieved to date.
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Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

Not a whole lot has gone to plan for Gworn so far this season' date=' he was among the ante-post favs for the Lincoln but ended up missing the cut and then ran no sort of race when well beaten in the Spring Mile. He's been a mixed bag since then with a couple of half decent efforts and two less inspiring efforts but his run two starts back when 4th at Epsom looks like good form in relation to the opposition tomorrow with the 1st and 3rd having come out and won on their next runs. I suspect that the nature of the course probably was not particularly suitable there and I also think that may have been the case when well beaten last time out at Goodwood - interestingly the two Johnston horses that were well behind at Epsom turned the form around in no uncertain terms in that race at Goodwood. It is probably worth noting that his one previous run at Goodwood also resulted in him being well beaten and that run was preceded and proceeded by much better runs so it seems that he may not be suited by the more idiosyncratic courses - a view that is backed up by the fact that all his best form is on more conventional galloping tracks. He's now down to a mark 3lbs lower than his last winning mark and runs in a class 4 handicap for the first time since victorious at Leicester last season, Graham Lee was on board on that occasion and rides again tomorrow - he has ridden the horse to 2 of his 3 career wins. He should get the bit of cut in the ground that he needs to be seen to his best tomorrow and I think he makes a good bit of appeal at the prices with the top two in the market very short on what they have actually achieved to date.[/quote'] Cam Hardie is riding this not Graham Lee, I got confused somehow
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Re: Calculus' Flat Season 2014

Got a serious alcohol induced headache today but have managed to have one bet: 5:40 Catterick - Tropical Bachelor (7/2 Paddy Power) 1.5pts Win
Has gone up 7lbs for winning last time out but still looks well weighted on best of his historic form, the manner of victory last time was also pretty impressive as he won by 5 lengths and the rise in the weights looks fully justified on that basis and may not be enough to stop him going in again today. Looks to have optimal conditions today and has the best jockey in the race in the plate. Think I'll go back to bed now...
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