Grex Posted April 25, 2014 Author Share Posted April 25, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO HOMES back/lay: 150 bets: +8.4% yield This weekend's selections..... one of them this evening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted April 29, 2014 Author Share Posted April 29, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO HOMES back/lay: 158 bets: +6.3% yield One for this evening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted May 1, 2014 Author Share Posted May 1, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO HOMES back/lay: 164 bets: +7.7% yield A late goal by Sheffield Utd lost the bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted May 2, 2014 Author Share Posted May 2, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO HOMES back/lay: 165 bets: +6.9% yield A few for the weekend..... including one tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted May 6, 2014 Author Share Posted May 6, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO HOMES back/lay: 165 bets: +6.9% yield Two nice home-lay winners - Shrewsbury & Granada.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted May 9, 2014 Author Share Posted May 9, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO HOMES back/lay: 169 bets: +6.6% yield Three homes for Sunday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted May 11, 2014 Author Share Posted May 11, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO HOMES back/lay: 169 bets: +6.6% yield Only one winner..... but at odds of 3.75 ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecurlyone1 Posted May 15, 2014 Share Posted May 15, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO HOMES back/lay: 172 bets: +7.0% yield Grex how do you convert ELO ratings into odds ? and then how do you make a selection ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted May 15, 2014 Author Share Posted May 15, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO HOMES back/lay: 172 bets: +7.0% yield how do you convert ELO ratings into odds ?........ The Ratings for a team are based on weighted past performance, taking into account (amongst others) goals scored, strength of opposition etc. The game rating is then (H Team rating) - (A Team rating). For each league, I then did an analysis of results vs game rating over the past 7 seasons, which produced a straight-line probability equation for H win and A win. This gives the "value" of odds being offered for a particular game. ....... and then how do you make a selection ? A further analytical comparison of odds value vs return identified a range of odds value (normally between 100% and 120%) gave the best historical return. So, selections are based on this range of odds value. Hope this is clear (as mud) :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted May 16, 2014 Author Share Posted May 16, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO HOMES back/lay: 172 bets: +7.0% yield Last selections of the season..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted May 18, 2014 Author Share Posted May 18, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO HOMES back/lay: 172 bets: +7.0% yield The end of the season was a bit of an anti-climax, with two losers. The end-of-season performance is 174 bets, 5.5% yield. It's worth noting that, if the system had stopped with 6 rounds to play (as is the case with "Grex's HOMES"), then the performance would have been 143 bets, 10.9% yield...... a lesson to learn for next season ;) Until September/October...... enjoy Brazil 2014 :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted July 30, 2014 Author Share Posted July 30, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO HOMES back/lay: 174 bets: +5.5% yield The new season is nearly upon us :clap I have looked at the results from last season, and decided to concentrate solely on the "Home backs" and "Home lays". This will eliminate the other under-performing options and simplify matters. Also, the theoretical stake will be 10 units for both Backs and Lays. So, the new-look selection table will look like the example below. By the way, I found a formula error in my previous Excel sheet..... the performance of the system for last season was, in fact...... 173 bets - yield 6.2%. Unfortunately, the system doesn't kick-in until after 6 rounds of games, so the first selections will not be until 13 September (English League 1). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO HOMES back/lay: 174 bets: +5.5% yield Good luck mate ...:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted July 31, 2014 Author Share Posted July 31, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO HOMES back/lay: 143 bets: +10.9% yield It was based on a system explained on a website. Unfortunately, I recently had to buy a new laptop (my old one crashed), and I cannot find the link. I will keep looking and let you know when I find it. I eventually came across the site..... http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/applying-elo-ratings-to-football-part-one It is rather basic, but at least it gives you some pointers as to the principles. Hope it helps :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted August 1, 2014 Author Share Posted August 1, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO HOMES back/lay: 173 bets: +6.2% yield When I open this thread, all the tables in my previous posts have disappeared and have been replaced by a message from my image hosting site (imagefra.me) that my "bandwidth has been exceeded". It was a free site..... now they are asking for a subscription :loon Can other visitors see the tables?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO HOMES back/lay: 173 bets: +6.2% yield When I open this thread' date= all the tables in my previous posts have disappeared and have been replaced by a message from my image hosting site (imagefra.me) that my "bandwidth has been exceeded". It was a free site..... now they are asking for a subscription :loon Can other visitors see the tables?? Yes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vilamoura04 Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO HOMES back/lay: 173 bets: +6.2% yield Nope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted August 19, 2014 Author Share Posted August 19, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO HOMES back/lay: 174 bets: +5.5% yield The new season is nearly upon us :clap I have looked at the results from last season, and decided to concentrate solely on the "Home backs" and "Home lays". This will eliminate the other under-performing options and simplify matters. Also, the theoretical stake will be 10 units for both Backs and Lays. So, the new-look selection table will look like the example below. By the way, I found a formula error in my previous Excel sheet..... the performance of the system for last season was, in fact...... 173 bets - yield 6.2%. Unfortunately, the system doesn't kick-in until after 6 rounds of games, so the first selections will not be until 13 September (English League 1). This is a repeat of my previous post...... using a new free image hosting site. Let's hope it doesn't decide to go "commercial" ;) http://s26.postimg.org/b4cgxeyc9/ELO_2014_15_sample.png' alt='ELO_2014_15_sample.png'> Now the tables in previous posts have re-appeared :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted September 12, 2014 Author Share Posted September 12, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO HOMES back/lay: 173 bets: +6.2% yield The season's selections start tomorrow, with one for English League 1: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted September 13, 2014 Author Share Posted September 13, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO HOMES back/lay: 173 bets: +6.2% yield Knew I should have gone for over 7.5 ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO HOMES back/lay: 174 bets: +6.8% yield Sadly pinnicles going from UK for now till it sorts licence / decides if worthwhile, could this hurt the system grex? Sent from my XT1032 using PL Forum Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted September 14, 2014 Author Share Posted September 14, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO HOMES back/lay: 174 bets: +6.8% yield Sadly pinnicles going from UK for now till it sorts licence / decides if worthwhile' date=' could this hurt the system grex?[/quote'] I Know Pinnacle has pulled out of Spain, but I didn't realise they were considering abandoning UK. I know Pinnacle is mainly a Far East outfit, but I would have thought UK was also a major market for them. The odds I quote for Pinnacle "home lay" are, in fact Away AH(+0.5) - if they pull out of UK, I shall have to start using another website offering AH, or DC. The odds will obviously be less competitive. :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO HOMES back/lay: 174 bets: +6.8% yield I would have thought UK was also a major market for them. They don't leave because they don't like the UK market, but because of a bunch of parasites that somehow got the rights to decide about and distribute the commodities and assets they didn't help to create, and are known as government in each country. So, the ones of UK decided to introduce additional 15% tax to bookmakers profit as of 1. October. As a result, likes of Pinnacle and SBOBet decided not to continue their operations in UK. You can read the discussions here: http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/153028-ATTENTION-ALL-UK-PUNTERS-BETTING-EXCHANGE-INFO http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/153180-Pinnacle-closing-UK-accounts http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/153025-SBOBet-Closing-UK-Accounts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anaconda69 Posted September 14, 2014 Share Posted September 14, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO HOMES back/lay: 174 bets: +6.8% yield Pinnicle tell me they will come back but gambling commission haven't granted operating licence as they gave up Alderney licence needed for this due to possible USA customers betting illegally. Hopefully they'll sort in future. Paying 15% is better than loss of customers and liquidity and creates a level playing field for UK betting operators and generates money for UK PLC so not a bad thing like everyone says as long as odds not reduced and Asians come back eventually... Sent from my XT1032 using PL Forum Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted September 16, 2014 Author Share Posted September 16, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO HOMES back/lay: 174 bets: +6.8% yield Two selection for tonight and tomorrow evening.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted September 18, 2014 Author Share Posted September 18, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO HOMES back/lay: 174 bets: +6.8% yield One loser, one winner..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted September 19, 2014 Author Share Posted September 19, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO HOMES back/lay: 176 bets: +6.5% yield Three home lays for Saturday..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldebaran Posted September 19, 2014 Share Posted September 19, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO HOMES back/lay: 176 bets: +6.5% yield Three home lays for Saturday..... Hi Grex. Nice to see this back. However, your link doesn't seem to work, just takes me to the file upload page. Any chance you can check it please as we can't see you picks. Cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted September 26, 2014 Author Share Posted September 26, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO HOMES back/lay: 176 bets: +6.5% yield I still haven't had time to sort out this image hosting service issue. So, until I do, I will just post basic info on selections. I hope normal service will be resumed soon ;) Tomorrow.... Coventry v Preston - Home Lay @ 1.35 (Bet365) Crewe v Colchester - Home Lay @ 1.38 (Bet365) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 3, 2014 Author Share Posted October 3, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO HOMES back/lay: 176 bets: +6.5% yield Saturday...... E1 Peterboro v Oldham (home lay @ 1.75 - Bet365) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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