Grex Posted November 11, 2013 Author Share Posted November 11, 2013 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings A weekend to forget :\ The overall results are still positive (15 bets, profit 9 units, yield +6.9%)...... but this is mainly due to the Genoa win on 03 November. Perhaps the international break comes at the right time ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 16, 2013 Author Share Posted November 16, 2013 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings I am posting one selection very early....... Roma on 25 November. I can't believe the 1.46 odds available :loon Probably be back with more before the weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 22, 2013 Author Share Posted November 22, 2013 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings No selections from Serie A..... but 2 homes and 1 away from La Liga - and one starts in 30 minutes (sorry) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 23, 2013 Author Share Posted November 23, 2013 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings After yet another failure in La Liga, I have decided to add English League 1...... two away selections for today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 29, 2013 Author Share Posted November 29, 2013 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings Not doing very well at the moment :\.... anyway some losers for the weekend :p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings Despite a crap set of results two weeks ago (there were no selections last week), I will continue.... probably in vain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings After another spate of draws at the weekend, I think laying the opposing team is the way to go with this one. Therefore, the tables will continue to show the Home and Away performance but, the AH(0) has been changed to AH(+0.5), which is the same as laying the opposing team. You will see that for the "Homes", there is a dramatic improvement for AH(+0.5) compared with backing the home win. The "Aways" yield reduces slightly, but nothing significant. Anyway, let's see how it pans out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings Selections for the weekend.... and the first (Elche - Malaga) starts in 55 minutes :loon (I wish leagues would stop having Friday evening games - I like to relax ;)) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings Hello there young fella, it's Merlin from the old 3-0 thread popping in to see how you are doing. Long time no speak, and a lot of water flown under the bridge since we last conversed. I hope you are keeping well and making some money out of the gambling game. Me, I'm still chasing that pot of Gold at the end of the rainbow with one foot forward and two backwards. I note that you are still as busy as ever beavering away with your systems, the neatness is still there and deserves compliments, but my oh my what's happened to the size? One needs a magnifying glass to see just what is happening. What has happened to this thread it appears to be falling behind, and it's a great pity because it is a useful method? Must be time consuming keeping abreast of this type of rating, and I don't know whether or not you have looked at clubelo.com/All/Ranking/html which is very neat and tidy and gives much detail. Do you base your calculations on percentages or on the somewhat confused formula which is on many similar sites? Anyway good to converse, I wish you well and hope to pop in more often in future. Best Regards. Merlin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings Hey, Merlin, glad to hear from you and see you're still around! :) Hope you'll be back one day with your systems, too! :ok the neatness is still there and deserves compliments Neatness is Grex's trademark! ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings Thanks Froment for those kind words. Not really been away too far, just inactive from a Forum point of view. As a matter of fact I have been tinkering around with a system recently and may give it a trial run shortly. Also been tinkering around with Trading systems, I really am a systemite at heart. Trust you are well. Regards. Merlin.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings Welcome home! See my comments above.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings Hello there young fella' date=' it's Merlin from the old 3-0 thread popping in to see how you are doing. Long time no speak, and a lot of water flown under the bridge since we last conversed. I hope you are keeping well and making some money out of the gambling game. Me, I'm still chasing that pot of Gold at the end of the rainbow with one foot forward and two backwards. I note that you are still as busy as ever beavering away with your systems, the neatness is still there and deserves compliments, but my oh my what's happened to the size? One needs a magnifying glass to see just what is happening. What has happened to this thread it appears to be falling behind, and it's a great pity because it is a useful method? Must be time consuming keeping abreast of this type of rating, and I don't know whether or not you have looked at clubelo.com/All/Ranking/html which is very neat and tidy and gives much detail. Do you base your calculations on percentages or on the somewhat confused formula which is on many similar sites? Anyway good to converse, I wish you well and hope to pop in more often in future. Best Regards. Merlin.[/quote'] Nice to hear from you again, Merlin.... shame that Michael Wray's website went "off air", otherwise I am sure the thread would still be alive. The ELO system is quite complex, and I have managed to package everything in an Excel file that automatically produces the ratings for the teams and the 1-X-2 probability. The selections are then based on odds "value". I haven't posted for a while due to internet access problems in Latin America, but I will try to start it up again for this weekend's fixtures. Apologies for the text size..... perhaps it's old-age creeping in..... is this big enough for you ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings Yes, much better thanks, I'll stop looking through my glass eye and put my glasses away in the case.:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings Picking this one up again. Let's see if we can continue where we left off in December..... losing ;) The first one is later this evening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings ...... now just where have I put that magnifying glass? ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings ...... now just where have I put that magnifying glass? ;) We will have to start calling you Mr Magoo ;) Some selections for the weekend. It looks as though AH(+0.5) is going to be the one to go for..... at least it has a +ve return for both homes and aways. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings Both Coventry and Crawley were postponed. Two nice long-odds home wins (Malaga and Atalanta) put the straight Home Wins into positive territory.... but the Homes AH(+0.5) continues to be the better option. The aways are on a bad run but, again, the Away AH(+0.5) is performing better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 7, 2014 Author Share Posted February 7, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings This weekend's selections....... one starts in 90 minutes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings Weekend results below. Still the AH(+0.5) are out-performing the straight "back". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings This weekend's selections...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 18, 2014 Author Share Posted February 18, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings A good weekend for the AH(+0.5)s (the Crawley match was postponed)..... unfortunately, Monday night's selections (Verona and Malaga) both failed :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 18, 2014 Author Share Posted February 18, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings One "away" selection for tonight (Preston). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 19, 2014 Author Share Posted February 19, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings Another draw..... so, AH(+0.5) (or "Lay") is definitely the future for this one (me thinks) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecurlyone1 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings Another draw..... so, AH(+0.5) (or "Lay") is definitely the future for this one (me thinks) Yes Grex , going very well how long does it take to update your records ive looked at messing with ELO but seem like a lot of hard work Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tycobb667 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings Another draw..... so, AH(+0.5) (or "Lay") is definitely the future for this one (me thinks) I think it's WAAY to early to draw any such conclusions. You've only placed 27 away bets which is nothing really, and at pretty high odds as well. Your yield jumps like crazy after every single match. Just keep going. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 20, 2014 Author Share Posted February 20, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings Thanks for your comment, Tycobb. I agree that it is early days..... but being a conservative sort of guy, I prefer a nice steady "drip-drip" rather than a roller-coaster ride ;) However, I will keep both approaches going until the end of the season at least, and review the situation then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 21, 2014 Author Share Posted February 21, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings Loads this weekend :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 25, 2014 Author Share Posted February 25, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings A reasonably good weekend for the Aways.... not so good for the Homes. Four Away selections from League 1 for tonight.... let's hope the away teams have their scoring boots on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 26, 2014 Author Share Posted February 26, 2014 Re: Grex's ELO Ratings A reasonably good night for the "Home lays"..... [Away AH(+0.5)] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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