Blazing Bailey Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 Sandown 3.40 - Ningaro 8/1 William Hill BOG This is an interesting little race which revolves around the favourite Sadiq who achieved sweet feck all on his last two runs but did win quite nicely at Brighton (11l LTO - 3 runner race) which isnt exactly what I would call a reliable track for form reading. Add that to the fact he has Barzalona on his back and the 6/4 on offer looks an awful price. Ducab has a decent chance with Ryan Moore in the saddle but he is also quite short for what he has achieved and Scottish Star has a squeek if he runs to form but looks to have been flattered by his LTO C&D 4th. With this in mind I am taking a chance on the Balding runner who incidentally has a pretty decent strike rate at this venue. Ningaro ran a race full of promise here over 9f in a C3 (3yo) handicap where he didnt have much room to manoeuvre until he got clear in the final furlong and stayed on nicely in a averagely run race. That form has worked out well in the grand scheme of things and a reproduction of that should see him go very close tomorrow. His LTO run was a little disappointing but it was again ran at a fairly sedate pace and 3 of the horses ahead of him all raced closer to the pace and it was only the 2nd placed horse (who was behind Ningaro the time before) who made up any ground and he made it against the rail which I think can be a big help. On a day when it paid to be out in front and near the rail he did pretty well and was incidentally last of the bridal as well. He has a decent inside draw tomorrow and I can see him tracking the pace and providing he gets the breaks, I think he has strong claims on what we have seen to date, especially as there looks to be much more to come. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
corky Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: BBOTD Thursday 25th July 1815 leopardstown 1pt win sir john hawkinds 11/10 sjames tried in blinkers today for 1st time,after a creditable run at newmarket last time out, step up in distance could help,only concern is that obrien has another horse in the field and as it is unbeaten could give josephs ride most to do Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: BBOTD Thursday 25th July 645 Doncaster: Ypres 4/1 Betfred Lightly raced this season and after a pipe opener at Catterick ran a cracker at Ripon to get up close home. Could be an improving sort and the one with scope in this race and now goes back up to 6f in which he has ran well at before but never quite managed to win. Now a year stronger i reckon he will see this out well and the booking of Fallon is obviously eye-catching. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: BBOTD Thursday 25th July Lets Go Sunshine - Limerick 7:00 - Each Way @ 7/1 Bet365 Won over course and distance two runs back off a mark of 107. Runs off 102 today, so anywhere near the same performance will have him very hard to beat. Had a long break for whatever reason, but made a nice comeback last time out. Finished 3rd of 19 to Miranour at Down Royal to blow the cobwebs away, this is very winnable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
santos_ Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: BBOTD Thursday 25th July Sandown 2.30 - Debdebdeb (1pts win, 11/4 Stan James) Has been a model of consistency in recent times winning two from her last six. Has to cope with another weight rise again is 4lbs higher then her second lto at Haydock but I still feel she could be capable from this mark. Her last few runs have only been narrow defeats and I think she will go close again today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeblitz Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: BBOTD Thursday 25th July 7.20 Leopardstown Mars 8/13 Stan James My rule is never back a 3 year old to beat older horses in pattern races unless in exceptional circumstances. The problem here is that Along Came Casey, the Weld horse loves this ground and trip and is improving. In addition he is an older horse against my 3yo. Howvever Mars having run in 4 consecetive Group 1s now is drpped into a Group 3 for a confidence booster. I have no doubt about his potential or ability and expect him to win a Group 1 before the end of the season before going on to be champion over 10f next year. With that in mind an exception has to be made here. 1 Point win for nap purposes Mars 8/13 Stan James Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markmywords Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: BBOTD Thursday 25th July 16:50 San Charitable Act - I think the drop to class 5 with a loss of rating from 75 to 70 and the booking of son Ryan Moore in this race could be significant for this 4 year old. Back to her lowest handicap mark of 70 with which she won on. Ran a decent race at course over a furlong further in April off a mark of 75 getting past in the final 100 yards. Has won over distance and will go for 1pt win 11/2 Bet365 (I think it will go out later on to ~7/1 on offer) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markmywords Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: BBOTD Thursday 25th July Passed not past Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arsenalpunter Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: BBOTD Thursday 25th July 19:40 Epsom Forcful Appeal - 1PT Win 9/4 Bet365 Amadeus Wolfe Tone and Forceful Appeal currently head the betting in this contest, and it can pay to side with the second favourite Forceful Appeal. It may be due to the fact that our selection hasn’t won on turf yet and all four of his wins have came on the polytrack, however he has shown plenty of promise on his last three starts back on turf where he has been involved in some competitive handicaps at Goodwood, Newmarket and most recently Ascot. The best of those performances came at Newmarket where he finished 3rd, 4 1/2 lengths behind winner Highland Colori in a Class 3 contest over 7f when staying on well inside the final furlong. He ran off the same mark of 81 next time out at Ascot, again over 7f, where he ran on well towards the finish to take 4th just being denied 3rd place. He travelled well throughout that race and is likely to improve on this effort, especially now he’s been lowered 1lb following that race and this race looks slightly easier than his last few efforts. The biggest danger looks set to be the current market leader, Amadeus Wolfe Tone, who was 2nd over course and distance on his last effort. He was beaten inside the final furlong by Magic City and with Forceful Appeal likely to be staying on towards the finish it could be a similar story for connections. He isn’t the most consistent of horses but a lot of his racing this year has come in better company and over 6f. With this looking an easier task he is a big danger, especially off 2lb lower than his most recent victory back in September 2012. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kolaberry Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: BBOTD Thursday 25th July Had a nice double up with debdebdeb and ningaro. Thanks to Santos and blazing B!! :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boulder5111 Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: BBOTD Thursday 25th July Had a nice double up with debdebdeb and ningaro. Thanks to Santos and blazing B!! :) Well done Santos and BB - well done Kola too, nice double to land :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boulder5111 Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: BBOTD Thursday 25th July S4.50 Sheikh The Reins 1pt Win 8/1 Ladbrokes This horse won nicely last time out and now might be the time to strike again off what could still be a decent mark. The horse finished 3rd beaten a length on its only effort over c&d last year off a 5lb higher mark and indeed has won off a 10lb higher mark previously. The win last time out might ust mean that it's clicked into some kind of form and the horse looks overpriced to go in again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: BBOTD Thursday 25th July 5.35 Doncaster - China Creek 1pt win @ 20/1 Bet365 Quite happy to take on the more fancied runners in this with an outsider. The one that appeals most is the Mark Johnston trained China Creek. The yard have their fair share of first time out winners and this horse looks a big price at 20/1. She is well bred and is related to some useful horses. She should have no problem with the ground and should know her job first time out. The yard are in cracking form and they do very well at this track. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: BBOTD Thursday 25th July 6.35 Epsom - 1pt win Sandfrankskipsgo @ 7/2 (Bet365) Peter Crate's runner seems to enjoy downhill tracks with form at Goodwood, Epsom and Brighton including a recent win at the latter. He also needs a quick surface over the minimum trip and his wins tend to come in smaller fields so this should suit ideally. He couldn't match the Brighton form when last seen but that came in a better race at Windsor and he took a keen hold. Should be able to freewheel down the hill better here and back down into an easier race I fancy him to go very close under ideal conditions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: BBOTD Thursday 25th July BALLS!! Just missed the deadline for one.... 720 Leops - Scintilla - 7/1 - Boylesports Mars should win but I don't trust the AOB stable at the moment! Improving filly that didn't strike me as needing a drop in distance in the Irish Oaks. Is overpriced on my ratings alone though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: BBOTD Thursday 25th July BALLS!! Just missed the deadline for one.... 720 Leops - Scintilla - 7/1 - Boylesports Mars should win but I don't trust the AOB stable at the moment! Improving filly that didn't strike me as needing a drop in distance in the Irish Oaks. Is overpriced on my ratings alone though. Well done mate. We had to take on that favourite. Shocking price! I backed Along Came Casey at 8/1, ended up 7/2, and a lay on the favourite. Your selection showed great determination, well done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertob Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: BBOTD Thursday 25th July BALLS!! Just missed the deadline for one.... 720 Leops - Scintilla - 7/1 - Boylesports Mars should win but I don't trust the AOB stable at the moment! Improving filly that didn't strike me as needing a drop in distance in the Irish Oaks. Is overpriced on my ratings alone though. Nice one mate! :ok Mars was simply not good enough. All hype this horse. Found nothing under pressure. Plenty of people will make plenty of excuses for this horse again, as the rain was lashing down before the off they might say, but well, at some point it's enough for excuses. This was the chance for the horse to show with a good performance that he belongs in to Group 1 class. That's obviously not the case... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Thanks both - not sure I deserve much credit with my current tipping record on here but it's appreciated all the same :) - a case of picking the wrong ones to put up! Fortunately, things aren't quite as bad as they might appear!! Cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: BBOTD Thursday 25th July Nice one mate! :ok Mars was simply not good enough. All hype this horse. Found nothing under pressure. Plenty of people will make plenty of excuses for this horse again, as the rain was lashing down before the off they might say, but well, at some point it's enough for excuses. This was the chance for the horse to show with a good performance that he belongs in to Group 1 class. That's obviously not the case... To my eyes, Mars is a maiden winner. I don't ever class a horse as a group horse until it wins a group race. He is a Group 2 horse at his best, but he might pick up some rubbish Group 1 at the Curragh sometime. There was great value on that lay today at 1.7 earlier Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: BBOTD Thursday 25th July Well done to; Blazing Bailey 8/1 The Saint 7/1 Santos 11/4 Aidy EW 7/1 :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertob Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: BBOTD Thursday 25th July Well done to; Blazing Bailey 8/1 The Saint 7/1 Santos 11/4 Aidy EW 7/1 :clap Well done the winners. Good day for the thread! :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertob Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: BBOTD Thursday 25th July To my eyes' date=' Mars is a maiden winner. I don't ever class a horse as a group horse until it wins a group race. He is a Group 2 horse at his best, but he might pick up some rubbish Group 1 at the Curragh sometime. There was great value on that lay today at 1.7 earlier[/quote'] That's the correct attitude towards things, in my mind. Many people see that different though. I had just to look through my Twitter feed to see oh so many people making excuses for Mars because of him being wrongly campaigned, had to run in too many top class races, soft ground etc.... Fact is this horse was hyped to be the next Derby winner after a maiden win at Dundalk. A visually impressive performance that day surely, but how many of AOB's maiden winners look exactly the same? This year Mars only confirmed that he's no Derby winner, as the distance is probably too far, and he is no miler, as he lacks the speed and tun of foot, which applies to 10f as well. I agree, he could pick up at some point a poor Group race at the Curragh but I really doubt it'll be a G1... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeblitz Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Re: BBOTD Thursday 25th July You are right about Mars at least for this year. He is just a maiden winner until he wins again. The fact is he didn't win and those of us who backed him, lost. He was outstayed by a smart filly. Maybe they should make the running? Then they must find his trip. People can keep making excuses but good horses handle most ground so to be beaten tonight was a major disappointment! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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