July 15 - July 21

[Fader]

Re: July 15 - July 21 3pts J.Monaco to beat N.Almagro 2.62 Bet365 1pt J.Monaco to win 2-1 5.50 Bet365 These 2 have played 8 times. Almagro leads 5-3. However, 1 of those was on grass and 3 of the other 7 were before 2008. In their last 3 encounters, all on clay Monaco leads 2-1 and more importantly Monaco is in some serious form right now. He always plays well in Germany and has points to protect before the next big slam. He don't want to be drifting down in the rankings. He beat both Monfils and Paire in straight sets and that takes some doing. Almagro beat Lopez 2-0 also but Lopez isn't a big clay courter. Almagro is a very good clay courter but he is still a mind-bomb and always gives his opponent opportunities. 2pts F.Fognini to beat T.Haas 2.37 Bet365 Fognini is one of the most in-form players there is at the moment on the clay. He has now won 7 in a row on the clay and won an event along the way. He hasn't just won though, he has demolished players. He beat Tommy Haas in the last event he played in 6-2 / 6-4 !!! thats an incredible result. He then went on to beat Kohlschreiber who was in some hot form himself in the final. This tournament he has beat both Ramos (another player in form) and Granollers in straight sets too. He has won 6/7 of those matches in straight sets. He is riding a wave right now and Haas will need to be bang on form to match it.

[Alfie White]

Re: July 15 - July 21 Fognini Fabio - Haas Tommy, 19/07/2013 It's ATP Hamburg, QF match between these two fellas and I think bookies got it wrong this time around. I've backed Haas to win yesterday in some accumulator, but I can't see him past Fognini today. Italian fella has been playing some very nice tennis recently. Winning the tournament at the Stuttgart couple of days ago and it was the finals when he dropped his first set. On the way to the title, he managed to beat Haas in straight sets (6:2, 6:4) and show that he has upper hand at the moment. Haas is in ok form, I can't say he isn't since he had very nice clay season up till now, but I somehow feel that Fabio will win this one too and the odds are too good to ignore. 2.4 @ Pinnacle

[its255]

Re: July 15 - July 21

I think you're just looking for an argument Atko. This seems to be a regular thing on this tennis threads people attacking me about nonsense.

You says that "Anderson has been away from the hard for much of the year and he much prefers the clay" So yes you wrong ,Anderson plays Clay bye default and he prefers Hard For me Anderson 2-0 at odds 2.25 Watching Anderson vs Gomez and i was surprising how gomez play He serves something like 70 % first serv and move very well for a man who only play 26 match in his carrer Giraldo face a poor Guccione and the win came only after 3 set Giraldo got a poor second serv 125 km!!! Home crowd will not enough tonigh There is a big gap between these player and i really don t understand these odds Giraldo favourite surface is Clay guys sry for my english which is not my first language but i love this forum that why i post here :p in my country these is only kid on these kind of forum :\

[Fader]

Re: July 15 - July 21 3pts Over 20.5 games R.Federer Vs F.Mayer 1.72 Bet365 2pts F.Mayer to beat R.Federer 5.00 Bet365 I really don't understand these odds!? Federer had a disappointing Wimbledon going out to Stakhovsky. He then comes onto the clay and loses the first set to Brands regroups and wins that match 2-1. He then beats Hajek ranked 140th, but again I wouldn't say convincingly. He had break points and did not take them. I think Federer, on the clay and with his reason form is there to be taken on. Added to this though Mayer is in some good form right now,he has won 9 out of his last 10 matches on the clay. he is slowly improving his ranking. He knows that he will gain some points also if he wins here and he is in his home country. All these points add up to Mayer providing an upset here but one thing there should be is alot of games. If Hajek can take 7 games off of Federer then I'm sure Mayer can take 8.

[brecki]

Re: July 15 - July 21 Well, Fader I like your tips. You do a great work - Thank You for that !!! But I think you counted wrong as if Federer wins 6-4 6-4 Mayer will win 8 games but the handicap is still not covered. Besides we should pay attention to a 4-0 H2H lead of Federer never dropping any set against Mayer. These meetings -to be fair- were 2 times on grass and 2 times on hard court. On these surfaces Federer should have a big advantage. Mayer is 18-8 on clay in 2013 and surely a clay-player, so may be the H2H leads us the wrong way here, but I just wanted to spot on the facts. And Mayer hasn´t dropped a set at Hamburg so far winning against Lopez, Dolgopolov and Davidenko. There can easily be an upset as Mayer is playing well at the moment and Federer seems to have difficulties. The Handicap instead would lead to al least one Tie-Break. Possible but you never know. What if Mayer wins 6-4 6-4 ? I like the odds on Mayer and a Handicap of +4.5 should be more easy to cover than an over 20.5 I think. Best of luck with your tips !!!

[Fader]

Re: July 15 - July 21 lol, I'm the only one in our IT Dpt today so I'm rushing things. I meant 9. The 4-0 head to head mean very little mate because none of those where played on clay. Added to this they were played in 2005/2006/2010/2012 and 2 or 3 of those was when Federer was the man. He is on poor form recently and so you can discount these head-2-heads in my opinion.

[WWWYKI!]

Re: July 15 - July 21

3pts J.Monaco to beat N.Almagro 2.62 Bet365 1pt J.Monaco to win 2-1 5.50 Bet365 These 2 have played 8 times. Almagro leads 5-3. However, 1 of those was on grass and 3 of the other 7 were before 2008. In their last 3 encounters, all on clay Monaco leads 2-1 and more importantly Monaco is in some serious form right now. He always plays well in Germany and has points to protect before the next big slam. He don't want to be drifting down in the rankings. He beat both Monfils and Paire in straight sets and that takes some doing. Almagro beat Lopez 2-0 also but Lopez isn't a big clay courter. Almagro is a very good clay courter but he is still a mind-bomb and always gives his opponent opportunities.

Going well so far here Fader but just to correct you on a minor point Monaco and Paire was 2-1 not 2-0.

[Fader]

Re: July 15 - July 21

Going well so far here Fader but just to correct you on a minor point Monaco and Paire was 2-1 not 2-0.

I'm an idiot this morning mate. I'm running around like a headless chicken at work and that's the 3rd/4th mistake I've made today. :( Sigh, had so many chances in this match. Should of won that. double fault at 30-15. What are you doing Monaco!?

[brecki]

Re: July 15 - July 21 Monaco --- Bull Sh** !!! Could have easy rebreaked Almagro when 3-3 final set 0-40 but dropped 5 points in a row. And then another breakball when 3-5 down. I was on Monaco winning 2-1 with odds of 6.00 at youwin. Shame on him !!!

[Fader]

Re: July 15 - July 21 Such fine lines in games like that. He really should of done it he had the break and was 3-1 up he lost 5 in a row... can't predict such failure i guess.

[WWWYKI!]

Re: July 15 - July 21 Maybe a trade on Almagro when he's 40-0 down at 3-3?I know it's hard to get on price's in the middle of a game and if you're trying to work as well it's near impossible.

[InfectedBoy]

Re: July 15 - July 21 You guys need to move on, Monaco is a clown and he can't be trusted and this is not the first time he has choked on a lead. He screwed my muliples in last years US and this years French open after having a two set lead and since then I have decided to avoid him. I know it stings losing a bet like this but you have been doing some excellent work for last few weeks and I am sure you can put this behind you.

[Emiliano]

Re: July 15 - July 21

You says that "Anderson has been away from the hard for much of the year and he much prefers the clay" So yes you wrong ,Anderson plays Clay bye default and he prefers Hard For me Anderson 2-0 at odds 2.25 Watching Anderson vs Gomez and i was surprising how gomez play He serves something like 70 % first serv and move very well for a man who only play 26 match in his carrer Giraldo face a poor Guccione and the win came only after 3 set Giraldo got a poor second serv 125 km!!! Home crowd will not enough tonigh There is a big gap between these player and i really don t understand these odds Giraldo favourite surface is Clay guys sry for my english which is not my first language but i love this forum that why i post here :p in my country these is only kid on these kind of forum :\

which is your country?

[Fader]

Re: July 15 - July 21

Maybe a trade on Almagro when he's 40-0 down at 3-3?I know it's hard to get on price's in the middle of a game and if you're trying to work as well it's near impossible.

Personally i did lay him at 3-1. But I don't like to after-event with lays on here. There was many chances to lay though so hopefully anyone following also did.

[Atko]

Re: July 15 - July 21 Think InfectedBoy's post is a good one. You will get some sore losses in this business from time to time ... Monaco today, Federer handicap yesterday, there is always one lurking around. However, in saying that, we all get our fair share of 'flukey' wins, so these things even themselves out. Best thing to do is take it on the chin and move on. You will never get every bet right. Losses are inevitable - you just have to make sure the wins outweigh them. If you are placing five bets per day and you are winning three of them with average odds of 1.75 or above, then you are doing okay.

[The Charming One]

Re: July 15 - July 21 Didn't follow on this because I wasn't 100% sure but you were incredibly right, well done :ok

WTA Bad-Gastein guard! Odds are not out yet, but next round Annika Beck should play with Karin Knapp. Annika won their only meeting this year, was the fav in that match, and is higher seed at Bad Gastein. Therefore I assume Knapp is going to be the underdog. However, Annika did not play Bad-Gastein so far, while Karin played semifinal here at 2007. Bad-Gastein is in high altitude, and some players have troubles to cope with that. Annika had MT in both R1 and R2 matches, probably because of bleeding nose. In addition to this, she is serving really bad, and Mandy Minella should have won their today's match. All in for Karin Knapp to bt Annika Beck once the odds are out!

[partio]

Re: July 15 - July 21

ATP Bogota

Giraldo - Anderson, 2 @ 1.43 (Unibet) 8/10 WON

Giraldo - Anderson -1.5 sets, 2 @ 2.10 (Unibet) 3/10 WON

Don't know why they're giving chances for Giraldo. Personally I think Anderson would be rated about 1.20 or like that for straight win. South-African has been solid player lately extremely on hard court and beaten many tough players top of the world. Giraldo is 96 ranked Columbian and I only see the reason they're giving chances to him because his playing at home. But I don't see "home-advantage" take any difference here. Two years ago Anderson took over Giraldo 2-1 but now I see South-African growing up some level and at least straight win for Anderson is rated too high. I believe 2-0 is also more likely final score but I wouldn't contribute too many stakes for that.

Anderson took it with solid serving and few break points. Sets 2-0 (6-3 , 6-3) for Anderson. Giraldo hadn't chances at all.

Waiting for odds to Karlovic - Anderson game. Both players are big servers but "the doctor's" court game-playing against Mannarino wasn't very good at all. He just took both sets at tie breaks, serve worked pretty well all time of the game but Karlo actually played pretty lame in basic game. Shots over the lines and easy errors. Moving was awful. Wanna see what they will give for Anderson win against Karlovic, because I see him most likely to take over Croatian.

Any have thoughts about Tipsa - Falla game today? I can see Tipsarevic taking that, maybe he is going to back in form day-by-day but not, did recent win against Bemelmans even thought it wasn't so peace of cake. You think Falla could be beaten 2-0 by Serbian?

[Fader]

Re: July 15 - July 21 3pts F.Fognini to beat N.Almagro 2.20 Bet365 8 in 8 now for Fognini and 7 in 8 straight sets. He is flying right now and I don't think Almagro can stop him. Almagro when he is in the mood is fantastic, but it takes him to be down a few games for him to wake up. It might be alittle different this time around when it's a player who can put games to bed like Fog showed he can do winning his last ATP event.

[The Charming One]

Re: July 15 - July 21 @partio: I'm honestly not sure, I think Falla has played against two players who he should have beat in the conditions. Malisse is out-of-form and Ebden is horrible against left-handers. I think Tipsarevic looked pretty comfortable against Bemelmans despite the scoreline and I'm wondering about taking the 2-0 Tipsarevic bet but I'm honestly unsure whether it's value or not around 2.23 with Pinnacle. Tipsarevic looked pretty pumped against Bemelmans and he's really going to want to win this tournament given his year. I'm a bit undecided currently, might decide to go with the -1.5 sets/2-0.

[The Charming One]

Re: July 15 - July 21 Okay a few for tomorrow: N. Almagro vs F. Fognini for Match @ 2.29 with Pinnacle (4 units) Fognini has been absolutely brutal in the last two weeks, like Fader's said he's won a lot of his matches in straight sets and he's been playing the tennis of his life and has been showing some mental resolve. Almagro on the other hand isn't in particularly great form for him. His second serve is very attackable, Monaco won over 50% of points on it and other in-form claycourters have targeted this very area. I see a very even battle but with Fognini edging this battle at crucial moments. I. Karlovic vs K. Anderson for Match @ 1.455 with Pinnacle (4 units) Anderson was pretty strong against Giraldo and won as expected. His baseline game is pretty strong for someone of his size. There are two main reasons for this bet: (1) Karlovic threw in a lot of errors against Mannarino and relied on his serve to save him on numerous occasions. Anderson has a strong serve and baseline game so he'll be able to outrally Karlovic and protect his serve very well. Overall he's just that bit stronger. (2) Anderson is amazing at these types of odds, he's won the last 11 matches where he's been rated between 1.2 and 1.5 (or 43-7 over the last 50 matches). Basically he's a big + ROI in this range. R. Federer (-5.5) vs F. Delbonis for Match @ 2.57 with Pinnacle (3 units) Federer was decent against Mayer today despite the tight scoreline, Mayer's been on a bit of a roll taking out Lopez and Dolgopolov in this very tournament. I was impressed with Federer's ground strokes and feel like he's playing solid stuff. Delbonis has been on court for a long time in the last week (over 10 hours), he's had some impressive wins (and I've always rated him) but this is a new challenge for him entirely. First ATP semi-final and former world number 1 on the other side of the court. Verdasco was apparently quite shoddy in their encounter and I feel like it's Fed's time to step it up a gear. He's reliable (still) and has an amazing record against left-handers (who aren't Nadal) - 83/91 (91.2%). He's only lost to one left-hander who isn't Nadal (Jurgen Melzer - Monte Carlo 2011) since January 2003 :eek Y. Meusburger vs K. Knapp for Match @ 1.82 with Pinnacle (3 units) Knapp beat Beck comfortably in the last round, which was (I presume) down to some of Beck's struggles accommodating the altitude. I feel this is inflating Knapp's price. Meusburger has been playing some absolutely incredible tennis recently; she reached the final of Budapest last week beating Larsson, Beck and Scheepers on the way to the final, eventually losing in three sets to Halep who's heading for big things. This week she's beaten Begu and Rus who both can be dangerous. Knapp on the other hand has beaten Cadantu, who's also strong. Overall this should be a close match but from my first hand experience of watching Meusburger, I give her the edge.

[homunculus]

Re: July 15 - July 21 WTA Bastad Zako vs Fat Serena OVER 17.5 games (Slightly above evens in most of the bookies) (5/10) Another line influenced by the "celebrity factor". Zako is streaky player and she is on the run. She is pretty dangerous on clay, and she already did beat Serena on clay in 2009. They played 3 matches on clay so far and two were three-setters and one Serena won 6-4 6-4. I am not saying that Zako will win most of her service games, but the way Serena hands out her own serves, she should be able to get couple of breaks. Add 4 hold serves and we're home. Fully in her capabilities considering Serena probably does not care much about Bastad tournament. edit: also following Foggy to bt Mugro, GL

[Atko]

Re: July 15 - July 21 A couple for me today: - ROGER FEDERER -4.5 GAMES (v Federico Del Bonis) @ 1.85 with sbobet Federer has not been at his best this week, but he won't have to be to take care of Delbonis. The young Argentine has done brilliantly well to get this far in Hamburg, but his marathon match with Verdasco yesterday is going to take a lot out of him. Federer will be scenting blood now, the chance to take another title. I fear Delbonis will be fatigued and Federer could well have him on a string for a lot of this match. - KEVIN ANDERSON -2.5 GAMES (v Ivo Karlovic) @ 2.08 with sbobet I watched the whole Karlovic match yesterday and he was dire. He won because he held his nerve better in the breakers. Mannarino got so much joy attacking his backhand, but didn't stay tight at the crucial moment. With Tipsarevic out, Anderson will really fancy his chances in Bogota. He's the consummate professional, wants to win as many titles and money as he can, and generally takes care of weaker opponents. Karlovic does cough up chances, especially on his second serve, and I'd expect Anderson to get a break somewhere along the line and end Ivo's good run. :hope

[WWWYKI!]

Re: July 15 - July 21

WTA Bastad Zako vs Fat Serena OVER 17.5 games (Slightly above evens in most of the bookies) (5/10) Another line influenced by the "celebrity factor". Zako is streaky player and she is on the run. She is pretty dangerous on clay, and she already did beat Serena on clay in 2009. They played 3 matches on clay so far and two were three-setters and one Serena won 6-4 6-4. I am not saying that Zako will win most of her service games, but the way Serena hands out her own serves, she should be able to get couple of breaks. Add 4 hold serves and we're home. Fully in her capabilities considering Serena probably does not care much about Bastad tournament. edit: also following Foggy to bt Mugro, GL

Good price's around a Zak performance today but Williams has been ploughing through opponent's so far.Very hard to see past her winning this and the final.I hope you're right though because I followed CzechPunter on the Zak outright and wouldn't mind a run for our money!:hope

[InfectedBoy]

Re: July 15 - July 21 Federer is done and should retire for good. It's time to oppose him from now on since bookies are still overrating him with ridiculous short odds.

[homunculus]

Re: July 15 - July 21 Not the best day today. Foggy won, but Zako was disappointment in the first set and Fedex, whom I had to be beaten tomorow by Foggy at good price, was ousted today by the qualifier outside the 1st hundred. I thought that when Stakhovski is not around he may make it to the finals :-(

[Fader]

Re: July 15 - July 21

Federer is done and should retire for good. It's time to oppose him from now on since bookies are still overrating him with ridiculous short odds.

You're right about opposing him. I did it with Mayer but not with Del Bonis. But he is still winning games. Ultimately before today he had only lost on the clay to Del Potro and Nadal in his last 13.

[InfectedBoy]

Re: July 15 - July 21

You're right about opposing him. I did it with Mayer but not with Del Bonis. But he is still winning games. Ultimately before today he had only lost on the clay to Del Potro and Nadal in his last 13.

That might be the case but I think he is on a stage where you can't back him anymore judging by his past results. On clay, he is vulnerable to solid baseliners. Even though he is still winning matches you can clearly see that he has to labor for every victory. I think you missed his losses to Tsonga and Nishikori on clay.

[Fader]

Re: July 15 - July 21 past 13 only lost to Tsonga and Nadal i meant. Not Del Potro and Nadal.

[Fader]

Re: July 15 - July 21 3pts K.Anderson -2.5 games to beat I.Karlovic 1.90 Bet365 Would prefer evens really on this as it's hard to beat Karlovic with a handicap with that big arse serve. The main reason I'm backing this is because Karlovic, recently back from a serious injury has played alot of games and you can see he is getting tired. When he first come back he had the effort to return well (31% Vs Vasselin & Vs Pospisil) before going out to Isner. This tournament straight after it's going downhill (25% Vs Londero, 26% Vs Sijsling & 26% Mannarino) and he will need a good return to win this without the need to once again go 76 76. Anderson has been serving OK in the late 70s, early 80s and he has been returning decent too (average 41% return rate) and I think that will be the difference here. They played 2yrs ago and it ended 6-4 7-6 Anderson and that's a realistic target for this game to which will cover the handicap.

[Nes*]

Re: July 15 - July 21 how foginini stands with left handers? does delbonis have any chance? cheers.