French Open 2013

[joeblitz]

Re: French Open 2013 Nadal -8.5 games vs Nishikori 5/6 Bet365 Nadal has not been at his best here this year. Even so he meets a player who doesn't have the weight of shot to hurt him. I think Nadal will win this easily and will back him with high confidence 8/10. Sharapove -6.5 games vs Stephens Evs Stan James. Sharapova wasn't great in her last match but is allowed one off day. Even still she came through easily in the end. I expect her to crush Stephens today. Stephens is playing better now but is still inconsistant. I saw some of her matches here and she will not get away with the errors against Sharapova that she did against Knapp and the others. The key to this match is the first 3 games. If Sharapova wins them Stephens will loose confidence and belief. Maximum Confidence here 10/10.

[CzechPunter]

Re: French Open 2013 Just one for me for tomorrow. Back Agnieszka Radwanska (-2.5) to beat Sara Errani for a 3/10 stake at 2.00 with Paddy Power The H2H is a fairly grim reading for Errani, who nearly lost against Suarez-Navarro after having to receive medical treatment in the first set. She did well to come through that challenge, but Radwanska is one of those players that can take advantage of any limitations their opponents might be suffering from and I think that she will be able to win this one quite easily. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/radwanska-vs-errani-betting-agnieszka-radwanska-should-be-too-strong-for-sara-errani-on-tuesday-20130603

[homunculus]

Re: French Open 2013

Mattek-Sands > Kirilenko @2.53 Pinnacle (2/10) -2 J.Hampton +1,5 sets > Jankovic @1,800 (6/10) -6

-8 u for today, which brings me back to -1.4 u in this tournament. Well, at least it's not big loss, it has been quite a fun :-) Interesting thing - I must make a research whether it is common that the dogs are mostly playing in clown mode in 4th and higher round in slams.

[paul21144]

Re: French Open 2013 I'm kind of perplexed with Tommy Haas at the moment - what on earth is going on!!!! Probably my favourite player left on tour, he absolutely hammered Youzhny today in straight sets. I personally thought he would struggle, and be fatigued! Which brings me on to wonder just what he can do v Novak? Battered him 6-2 6-4 recently, in conditions that really played to his strength. His backhand is in full motion, and fitness I don't think will be an issue. Serve will, and he'll need to serve around the 70% mark/cut down on the double faults to have a prayer v Djokovic. Djokovic has been imperious so far, battering Dimitrov comprehensively. However, Kohlschreiber showed people can get to him. Haas @ 6-1,,,, worth a small punt? Would have to be 3/4 sets, Novak would 100% win in 5. I just wonder if Tommy could do something special here. He isn't going to make this stage of a grand slam very often ( if ever ) again, so I have a feeling he will play with freedom, and really give Novak a lot of questions to answer....!

[joeblitz]

Re: French Open 2013 Completely underestimated Stephens today but not worth dwelling on. Tsonga to beat Federer 6/4 Ladbrokes 5 points Very impressed with Tsonga's play this week and will never forget how close he came to beating Djokovic last year. Has beaten Federer on the big occasion at Wimbledon a few years ago too. Hits a heavier ball than Simon but needs to play as he is. I think the support of the crowd and his power game will put the Fed under pressure which will eventually sink him. Radwanska to beat Errani 2-0 13/8 Paddy Power 1 point Very hard to oppose Errani on form. However, as CzechPunter rightly says the H2H is 3-0 to Radwanska including a 6-0 6-1 drubbing on clay in Madrid last year. The stats don't lie and once a player gets into your head it becomes very hard to beat them. I think whoever wins the first set will win and have to go with the H2H but fear Errani greatly. Therefore minimum stakes

[RuleBritaniaa]

Re: French Open 2013

Completely underestimated Stephens today but not worth dwelling on. Tsonga to beat Federer 6/4 Ladbrokes 5 points Very impressed with Tsonga's play this week and will never forget how close he came to beating Djokovic last year. Has beaten Federer on the big occasion at Wimbledon a few years ago too. Hits a heavier ball than Simon but needs to play as he is. I think the support of the crowd and his power game will put the Fed under pressure which will eventually sink him. Radwanska to beat Errani 2-0 13/8 Paddy Power 1 point Very hard to oppose Errani on form. However, as CzechPunter rightly says the H2H is 3-0 to Radwanska including a 6-0 6-1 drubbing on clay in Madrid last year. The stats don't lie and once a player gets into your head it becomes very hard to beat them. I think whoever wins the first set will win and have to go with the H2H but fear Errani greatly. Therefore minimum stakes

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MOF8sTKdU5g Blue clay. Did you ever know about how different the blue clay is to the red? Errani will outwit her tomorrow, her tricks and flicks will be equalled by Errani.

[RuleBritaniaa]

Re: French Open 2013 It was slippery and you couldn't change direction, those head to head stats are superficial and nothing more.

[RuleBritaniaa]

Re: French Open 2013 Errani +2.5 games Pinnacle 3 points 1.93 Errani will outwit Radwasnak tomorrow, she has nothing in terms of a rally shot does Radwanska, the clay favours players with big backswings, Radwanska has very compact swings, short and snappy. She needs other player's to create power for her. Errani will deal with her tricks and flicks and throw in a few of her own, she is a doubles specialist, let's remember that. Superficial to go on the stats of the head to head, the win in Madrid means nothing as it wasn't proper clay. There's my contribution Czech and watch it win.

[joeblitz]

Re: French Open 2013 RuleBritaniaa it is good to be confident and back up that confidence. I respect Errani on the red clay which is why my stake recommendation is the very minimum based on the H2H. If you choose to ignore the stats, that is fine, I don't. This is a forum where we try to help each other out? Therefore recognize the fact that each and everyone has the right to reply and respect that right. You don't have to agree with anyone here but I am sure everyone would love to hear your views without you being dismissive of everyone else's opinions. Radwanksa leads the H2H 3-0, not 1-0 and yes the blue clay was very different. Errani may well win but my opinion is 2-0 whoever wins the first set. My opinion is Radwanska. This whole idea is to make money. I see your recommended stake on the Errani match is 3 points. If you were that confident why not 10 points? And why not a straight bet at 11/10? Anyway I have no wish to argue, just to make you aware that you are pissing people off by belittling what they write. Now that you are aware I am sure you won't publicly dismiss the opinions of others again. I get it wrong from time to time and own up and berate myself over it every time I do and for future reference I won't entertain anyone trying to lord it over to me when I am wrong either especially when the likelihood is that they have bet a small fraction of the amount I have invested.

[Banner]

Re: French Open 2013

Errani +2.5 games Pinnacle 3 points 1.93 Errani will outwit Radwasnak tomorrow, she has nothing in terms of a rally shot does Radwanska, the clay favours players with big backswings, Radwanska has very compact swings, short and snappy. She needs other player's to create power for her. Errani will deal with her tricks and flicks and throw in a few of her own, she is a doubles specialist, let's remember that. Superficial to go on the stats of the head to head, the win in Madrid means nothing as it wasn't proper clay. There's my contribution Czech and watch it win.

GoodLuck :ok

[RuleBritaniaa]

Re: French Open 2013

RuleBritaniaa it is good to be confident and back up that confidence. I respect Errani on the red clay which is why my stake recommendation is the very minimum based on the H2H. If you choose to ignore the stats, that is fine, I don't. This is a forum where we try to help each other out? Therefore recognize the fact that each and everyone has the right to reply and respect that right. You don't have to agree with anyone here but I am sure everyone would love to hear your views without you being dismissive of everyone else's opinions. Radwanksa leads the H2H 3-0, not 1-0 and yes the blue clay was very different. Errani may well win but my opinion is 2-0 whoever wins the first set. My opinion is Radwanska. This whole idea is to make money. I see your recommended stake on the Errani match is 3 points. If you were that confident why not 10 points? And why not a straight bet at 11/10? Anyway I have no wish to argue, just to make you aware that you are pissing people off by belittling what they write. Now that you are aware I am sure you won't publicly dismiss the opinions of others again. I get it wrong from time to time and own up and berate myself over it every time I do and for future reference I won't entertain anyone trying to lord it over to me when I am wrong either especially when the likelihood is that they have bet a small fraction of the amount I have invested.

How was I dismissive? You said she had a drubbing on clay in Madrid, that is misleading to the forum readers as most wouldn't have realised it was on blue clay, she complained about the blue clay, everyone did. All the natural claycourters lost in last year's Madrid masters. Nadal, Djokovic, Errani. Why do you think the final was contested between two big servers in the form of Federer and Berdych? Why do you think Hrdecka did so well too? It was virtually impossible to change direction on that surface. It was basically a fast hardcourt, as greata movement wasn't possible really. Sorry if you think I was being dismissive. It will be close but I think the head to head is drawing a wrong assumption about how they would fare on red clay. Didn't Errani only recently in the last 2/3 years pick up a new racquet and become a different player? That makes her results against Radwasnka between 2006 and 2010 pretty inconclusive if you ask me. The babolat racquet she picked up transformed her game, she became a different player. So the two matches I am looking at are Madrid and Istanbul as that's when they played when Errani was the player she is now, Madrid's conditions favoured Radwanska as movement wasn't possible, but if you look to their Istanbul match, where the conditions clearly suited Radwanska who has the shorter backswings and jerky shots and flicks, it was very close. 6-7, 7-5, 6-4 on an indoor hardcourt, with tones of breaks of serve and now they compete on clay. Most player's problem against Radwasnka is they can't put the ball away as they choose the wrong shot after getting themselves into a strong position in the rally, Errani has the oncourt smarts to choose the right series of shots once she gets into the driving seat. Good luck though.

[joeblitz]

Re: French Open 2013 Don't get me wrong RuleBritaniaa, in my post I said I feared Errani greatly and am well aware of her form on clay. As a matter of fact I have won a fair few quid on her over the past year or so. I like people to inspire confidence in that if they think they are certainties, say so. Sure it can leave you with egg on your face but that goes with the territory. And if people go against what you think is a certainty let them off - it is their funeral. I was just wondering why your recommendation of 3 points considering you are so keen on Errani? If I am confident for Horses or Tennis I will recommend 10. Just trying to understand other people's train of thought? I'll be happy with sincerity to congratulate you if she wins. If it were their first meeting I would be on Errani given her far superior record to Radwanska on clay but I cannot ignore the h2h on this one. If I'm wrong I'll take it on the chin and move on.

[fishy25]

Re: French Open 2013 Nothing much happening today, slight loss but tomorrow will make or break my tournament as you will see... Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to beat Roger Federer- 6/4 Bet365- (4/10) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (+3.5 games) vs Roger Federer- 20/23 BetVictor- (7/10) Over 39.5 games- 9/10 BetVictor- (4/10) Taking quite a few bets in this one in a match which I really think is Tsonga's to lose more than anything else. He's playing some really good stuff stuff at the minute, and he has completely dismantled Chardy and Troicki in his two previous games. His serve is working well whilst his forehand is lethal right now and he very seldom fails to trouble Federer these days. Quite what happened in Federer's match against Simon I don't know, as he was cruising in the first set before he went missing which is something the great one doesn't do. I know the crowd love him, but they will firmly be on the Frenchman's side tomorrow, something which he isn't too used to. Ultimately despite reputation, it's Tsonga who has looked the more impressive in the past couple of matches and provided he stays strong I think he'll come through this one in all honesty. In saying that, this could well go the distance or at least have 4 tight sets minimum one would think, so the overs looks a decent call to me as well. David Ferrer (-8.5 games) vs Tommy Robredo- 11/10 BetVictor- (7/10) One can only admire what Robredo has done in his past 3 matches, coming back from 2 sets down in all 3 games. Almagro probably should have beaten him in 3 sets in all honesty but that's history. The truth of the matter is I can't see any way possible how Robredo is anywhere near 100% here. It was evident at the end of that Almagro victory how physically and mentally drained he looked and the prospect of playing Ferrer is probably the worst match up possible. Ferrer will simply make him run all day and sooner or later, I expect that to take it's toll. It's draining playing the Spaniard when fully fit, let alone after 3 epic matches and I really do think Ferrer will come through this comfortably in the end. He dominates the H2H and has comfortably beaten Robredo this season, and although many hope for a fairy tale, I fear it may be somewhat of the opposite really. One for the women. Agnieszka Radwanska (-2.5 games) vs Sara Errani- 10/11 Bet365- (4/10) Can't add too much to what's been said. The H2H is grim reading for Errani, and my main fear is the breathing problems she suffered in the last round. She was slightly fortunate to come out of that game in the end and Suarez Navarro let her off the hook; Radwanska won't. The Pole dominated the match against Ivanovic in all areas, albeit with the Serb self destructing on serve but Agy was still looking good. As I've mentioned, the fitness concerns with Errani worry me really, especially as she's not going to get many free points against Radwanska and in the end I expect the Pole to pull through with a bit to spare.

[Sm0k3rZ]

Re: French Open 2013 rulebritaniaa : if it doesnt win then u should leave this forum. no need to be so arrogant like u know it all n the rest are just chatting ****. show some respect to senior punters like Czech..they have contributed alot to this forum over the years so be nice!

[CzechPunter]

Re: French Open 2013

Did you say earlier that the head-to-head was 3-0 or am I mistaken? If so' date=' I can't understand your comment of 'I cannot ignore the h2h (head-to-head) on this one.' Fair enough if it was 11-0 or 9-1, but 3-0 is surely a much of a nothingness, especially if that record is across several different surfaces.[/quote'] You apparently don't care about H2H records at all, which is fine if it works for you obviously (only a tiny minority of the players have played ten times or so against each other). However, I would actually say that 3-0 across different surfaces means a bit more than, say, 5-0 on the same one.

[RuleBritaniaa]

Re: French Open 2013 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QTPp8zzmJl4 Watch them at the end of season championships in 2012, how close was this? In the end it came down to one or two points and who was serving first, would Radwanska be able to move laterally as well as this on a claycourt? I am not saying it's 100% going to win but there's no reason she should be a 2.5 underdog as she is now. A lot of exageration is going into the blocked diaphram she had.

[RuleBritaniaa]

Re: French Open 2013 I expect a bundle of... "you should leave the forum" if she loses though, I'm sure. +2.5 is a cool handicap though because she can only narrowly lose IMO.

[TopJimmy]

Re: French Open 2013 I think it's more informative to consider set, game or even point superiority rather than simple match outcome when considering head to heads. For example in their last match, which on paper was very close, Radwanska won 53% of points on her serve compared to Errani's 46% which is quite significant and in line with the pre-match odds on the day (Radwanska was a 1/5 fav). Added to the other more dominant wins and Errani's possible health problems I think you have to make Radwanska a firm favourite.

[RuleBritaniaa]

Re: French Open 2013

I think it's more informative to consider set' date=' game or even point superiority rather than simple match outcome when considering head to heads. For example in their last match, which on paper was very close, Radwanska won 53% of points on her serve compared to Errani's 46% which is quite significant and in line with the pre-match odds on the day (Radwanska was a 1/5 fav). Added to the other more dominant wins and Errani's possible health problems I think you have to make Radwanska a firm favourite.[/quote'] I agree Radwasnka's serve is considerably better than Errani's, that is the only thing I am concerned with. A hold of serve is literally a break of serve for these two when coming up against each other. Errani on her injury during the Navarro match "I started to feel a stabbing pain when breathing," she said pointing under her ribs. "I knew it wasn't muscular, but I couldn't stand up. So I called the physio and she told me that my diaphragm was totally blocked. She tried to release it a bit and afterwards it was much better. "It was very strange and has never happened to me. I couldn't breathe and it also made me nervous." My gut says she's over the issue and she would have had medical assistance to ensure it doesn't return during the 2 days breaks. It's good to debate though, thanks for not attacking me for disagreeing with the majority here and instead discussing the match.

[trph79]

Re: French Open 2013 As someone who doesn't contribute but visits daily to see which way you guys on here are going, Id like to say something, no offence is meant to anyone. I don't think anyone on here is insulting Rulebritanna, nor do I think he think he/she is better than anyone else here, But its obvious he thinks he is correct and who's to say otherwise until the match is finished. I come here to view Chezhpunter and Aitko along with the others for good opinions and all on here provide them in spades, BUT they don't blow their own horns, they don't give promises, nor do they mention other punters names in their tipping posts. I like your addition to this Forum Britanna as i'm sure everyone else does. , I think you put some thought into your picks and give good reasons, but please respect the other posters on here, your pick is your pick, but when you mention others in your TIPPING post it reeks of arrogance which in betting can sometimes be great but most times ends up being a fault. No ones a physic on sports, you'll either be right or wrong at the end of the match, wait till then to make statements. But keep giving an opinion please. Thank you to all the posters on here great work guys. By the way i'm going Kuznetzova to win the first set - Mainly because I think Serena has got to drop one eventually and it could be today (fingers crossed) I'm going over in the Tsonga match, if Jo Wilfred can keep up his form he's going to go alright against Roger, I don't know who will win but I think we could see a first set tie break maybe Fed winning it, but I don't see Tsonga getting blasted in 3. I've got my fingers crossed for the overs in the Robredo/Ferer match, I think that Tommy can turn up with a good first set and maybe take it, I know its a long shot, H2H doesn't back that bet up at all either, but I've been on the under's and Ferer all the way through this Tournament so far and im breaking that trend today. It's been kind to me but Tommys coming close to the end now and I hope he go's out of this Tournament with a bang not a whimper.He's been a great competitor over the years. And in the match everyone has an opinion on ... I'm on Radwanska in 2, Sara has been playing great , but I just think Radwanska will have the answers. God Luck all and Keep up the great posts guys its much appreciated.

[joeblitz]

Re: French Open 2013 RuleBritaniaa, I want you to contribute and to be confident about your selections whether Errani wins or loses. By all means disagree with other people's selections but mentioning people by name and then belittling their reasoning is a little disrespectful to them, thats all.

[joeblitz]

Re: French Open 2013 Well done RuleBritaniaa, Errani will win easily now barring accidents. She has just won the first set. Radwanska has no answer. It is my own fault for ignoring how good she is on clay.

[RuleBritaniaa]

Re: French Open 2013 I think it's an appropriate time to let you all into a little secret, I actually happen to be a tennis coach and I only noticed this forum during the French Open. I was willing to be a good contributer to this forum and debate stuff with fellow posters but the sort of reception I have recieved has made me think I should just stick to being an observer of Czech and Fishy, who let me say are very good tipsters.

[MikeTonmmo]

Re: French Open 2013 Afternoon guys.. only my second post here. Interesting to read the discussions and arguments regarding the Radwanska vs Errani match. I have to admit on first viewing i had Radwanska a decent favourite, taking into account H2H

[MikeTonmmo]

Re: French Open 2013 Afternoon guys .. only my second post here. Interesting to read the discussions and arguements regarding the Radwanska vs Errani match. I have to admit on first viewing I had Radwanska as a fair favorite, taking into account the H2H and previous on clay. After reading all the comments on here last night, i thought i would double check my original decision. Errani was never a player prior to 2010, here rise up the rankings was pretty prominent, with the only clay court meeting being on the blue clay since 2010.. I feel you can almost dis-regard the two matches prior to 2010 and the dreadful blue clay. I am aware i'm typing this in match and people may think this is an obvious post with Errani taking the first set. I have gone 2-1 either way.. hoping for plenty of breaks of serve. Radwanska missed several break points in the first and i'm hoping she takes the second. Good luck to everyone with their bets though. Lastly, I have backed Tsonga at 6/4 .. can't really fathom after the 4th round matches how these two aren't 10/11 each. Tsonga mentally has the beating of Federer, (even on grass) .. in his home country on Roger's least favourite surface.. just screams value at 6/4 for me! This may well be decided in 5, with plenty of tie-breaks, I believe this is a HUGE opportunity for Jo-Wilf, he can hit his way through Ferrer in the semi, and set-up a magical final where France will pretty much stop to watch. What a Sunday that would be :)

[joeblitz]

Re: French Open 2013 Nadal vs Wawrinka under 31.5 games 5/6 BetVictor. Even with Nadal not playing at his best he has Wawrinka's number. Wawrinka has never won a set from Nadal in the 9 matches they have played. I expect a similar result here 7-5 6-3 6-4 or something along those lines would do. Maximum Bet 8 points. Djokovic vs Haas - total Haas games over 13.5 Evs Paddy Power. Not convinced by Djokovic's form yesterday. Kohlschreiber had loads of chances but couldn't convert. Haas has beaten Djokovic 3 times and has a strong game. A lot depends on whether Djokovic brings his A game. If he does, the match could be over in straight sets. Even allowing for that I think that Haas will cover this line. If the Djokovic that turned up yesterday turns up tomorrow he will drop a set or 2. I still expect the Djoker to come through. Bet 2 points. Jankovic vs Sharapova - Jankovic +5.5games 9/10 BetVictor Jankovic is playing great tennis lately and hasn't dropped a set. Sharapova leads the head to head 5-1 and crushed Jankovic on a hard court last time. However I give Jankovic a chance in this on her favouite surface clay and I think she will easily cover this line. Bet 2 points. Azarenka vs Kirilenko - Azarenka 2-0 8/15 Bet365 Azarenka is playing well and dispatched Schiavone easily yesterday. Kirilenko, struggled against Mattek-Sands early on yesterday and also had a MT for a shoulder injury. Although Azarenka leads the H2H 3-2, Kirilenko's victories were in 06 before Azarenka improved dramatically. With doubts over her fitness and Azarenka's recent supremecy in their matches this is the maximum bet, 10 points.

[tk2wndw]

Re: French Open 2013 This discussion is amusing to me. I think one thing we can agree on, Errani might be the most annoying "woman's" player I have ever seen and heard play. Woman is definitely in quotation marks, cause that is disputable.

[RuleBritaniaa]

Re: French Open 2013

Well done RuleBritaniaa' date=' Errani will win easily now barring accidents. She has just won the first set. Radwanska has no answer. It is my own fault for ignoring how good she is on clay.[/quote'] Well yeah, all those tricks and flicks on clay against Errani won't work cause Errani is an intelligent player herself and knows how to use the whole circumference of a claycourt. Thanks for congratulating. Just know I never dismissed your view, I just didn't think it was right you were giving readers a blinkered view of the head to head when Errani became a 50 thousand times better player after 2011 and in 2012 in Madrid, on clay, it was that very slippery blue clay, so it was very misleading in a way.

[RuleBritaniaa]

Re: French Open 2013

Djokovic vs Haas - total Haas games over 13.5 Evs Paddy Power. Not convinced by Djokovic's form yesterday. Kohlschreiber had loads of chances but couldn't convert. Haas has beaten Djokovic 3 times and has a strong game. A lot depends on whether Djokovic brings his A game. If he does, the match could be over in straight sets. Even allowing for that I think that Haas will cover this line. If the Djokovic that turned up yesterday turns up tomorrow he will drop a set or 2. I still expect the Djoker to come through. Bet 2 points.

I agree with this one :ok It's great value too. The rest are tough calls tbh, I have always had Kirelenko down as an underrated claycourter and she may very well keep with Victoria from the baseline for a while, it's not out of the question. Sharapova gives 110% every point and Jankovic can be a little up and down. Wawrinka pushed Nadal on clay in last year's Monte Carlo masters and he's playing better this year and with nothing to lose and I haven't been impressed with Nadal thus far this tournament, so who knows. Do you not feel Wawrinka will get it right and serve impecably, striking winners for atleast one set and get to a tie break or even 5 games once? Djokovic vs Haas overs games is a very good bet IMO, I had already taken it myself.

[TopJimmy]

Re: French Open 2013 Well done, RB. Meant to post this before the match but I would back tiebreaks in the Tsonga/Federer game. Either in each set or just for there to be a tiebreak in the match. Betfair/Stan James and COral offering odds in play. Tsonga has a much higher tiebreak rate than average and matches between these two have featured many tiebreaks.