BBOTD Thursday 18th April

[Blazing Bailey]

3.10 Cheltenham - Prima Porta 10/1 Bet365 BOG Following on from the value thread, I am going to add that one of the ways you know you have got value is when you rush onto Punter Lounge to put it up as your BBOTD! :lol I am surprised to see this so big and I would have happily snapped up 6 or 7/1. This horse has ran 3 good races this season, the first in a compeitive early season fillies handicap, only going down by two lengths to a horse than was bang in form at the time. The second she destroyed her field by 7l beating a next time out winner (and now rated 130). Her last race was behind Quevega when getting too far back before staying on nicely up the hill to only finish 8l back. She has the form in the book already and there could easily be more to come. She has also had a fairly light campaign compared to some and I expect her to go very close tomorrow.

[corky]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 18th April 1530 newmarket 1pt win move in time 6/1 betvic won its last 2 starts including an class 2 handicap at the weekend,and sometimes it pays to follow sprinters who turn out within a few days,has the benefit of having a run which could benefit as a few of the market leaders are having there first run,omeara and tudhope have a near 19% strike rate when teaming up,and have another 20% in placed runners

[robertob]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 18th April 17.45 Newmarket: Hillstar @ 13/8 bet365 He was unlucky on his debut at Sandown last season when he got a horror run in the closing stages, but he put that straight with a decent win at the second time of asking, then at Leicester. He had to work for it but won with a bit of authority in the end when the stamina kicked in. He starts in handicap company now for the first time and should improve for the step up in trip, his opening mark of 83 looks also lenient enough as he's nicely bred and has some very impressive entries later the season. He should be good enough to win such a handicap of this mark anyway.

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 18th April 4.30 Ripon Victoire De Lyphar 1pt win @ 12/1 Bet365 Bit of an all or nothing selection with this one as the stable aren’t exactly flying and this one has plenty to prove. I did however think there were better signs from the yards runners today with a well-backed runner going very close and a 50/1 shot from the yard running well. This horse was an extremely useful sprinter in his 3-year-old season winning at York off 90 and then finishing runner up in 2 competitive handicaps off 97 and 101. Since that season this horse has gone backwards and is now rated a lowly 82 but he is still only a 6 year old so it is to soon to right him off. He is now with Ruth Carr and this will be his 5^th start for the yard and I believe the yard may have now got to the bottom of him. He ran his best race for the yard 2 outings ago when finishing 2^nd at Ayr in a first time eye shield. They choose to leave that aid off on his return to action this season, when trying him on the all weather surface at Southwell. He appeared to hate the surface and finished 10^th of 11 but I feel they were just trying to get a run into him. Connections have chosen to reapply the eye shield for his return to turf and I feel he may be ready to take advantage of his drop in ratings. Ruth Carr has a good record at this track and shows a very healthy level stakes profit of +£26.63. This is the type of horse she excels with and no doubt she will get a win or two out of him of which the first will hopefully come tomorrow. Sandy Lane is the short priced favourite for this race tomorrow and looks to hold every chance after a demolition job last time out but I will be taking him on. He is up 6lbs in a higher grade but still looks well ahead of the handicapper. Interestingly enough if you look at the last 2 renewals of this race, David O’Meara has had the short price favourite on both occasions and both times they have been well beaten. Maybe it will be 3^rd time lucky, but at 6/4 I would rather back something else in the race.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 18th April 4.30 Ripon - 1pt win Queens Revenge @ 25/1 (Bet365) Tim Easterby's runner is the outsider of the party but showed plenty of smart form at 2 and I don't think she had the races drop right for her last season. She won here on debut (defying greenness to finish strongly to lead close home) before being an unlucky 4th in the Hilary Needler next time out at Beverley. Seemed not to cope with the soft ground at Newmarket on her final start that year and came back over longer trips last campaign. She ran an eyecatching race over a mile on good to soft on her reappearance effort at Musselburgh considering I still see her as a decent ground sprinter and that bodes well for her return this time around and she ran in much tougher races than this on soft ground after that. Drops markedly in grade here and back into a 6f race on good ground. That will suit and her runs fresh haven't been bad. Has to bounce back a little but I'm sure she's better than a 25/1 shot and therefore we'll side with her today.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 18th April 455 Ch: Kie (11/4 BetVic/PP) Donald McCain is not having the best of times at the moment, especially at the big meetings but hopefully Kie can change his luck here. Ran well when second to Arthurs Pass off a pound higher than today and then lost nothing in defeat when third at Aintree to Oiseau De Nuit. With the ground drying out conditions will be ideal and if he can get the better of Mister Matt for the duel up front then he will be hard to pass. Hopefully they wont cut each others throats and leave the door open to a finisher?

[Ross1303]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 18th April Acording to Trev - Cheltenham - 4.20 - 25/1 BOG Was looking good to a point last year before placing a class one round here at slightly shorter in November. Prior to that had won c3 here over slightly longer on good to soft and two lower grade wins on better ground. The Twiston-Davies can get Trev geared up to erase the latest memory here and with 3miles bang between previous winning distances could go close to at least a place here. Down in the weights having run in c1's latest also a bonus 0.5pts ew

[santos_]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 18th April Newmarket 2.55 - Fehaydi E/W 11/1 BetVictor A wide open contest as you would expect in the 3 yo trophy but I've sided with William Haggas charge Fehaydi. Whilst his overall form may not look as strong as some of the others here his win lto at Wolves on the AW ten days ago was pretty impressive notching up a 3 length victory. It's a wide open race but he should have a sporting each way chance.

[Smarty72]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 18th April 15.30 Newmarket - Pandar - EW @ 50\1 PP BOG Wide open race for me and this outsider could spring a surprise. 2 races in this country been last on debut in the UK on the All Weather but may be better than that. Been running In Italy prior to that with mixed results in mainly listed and 1 group 3 race over 5/6f. Timeform has this as running well on Good to Firm ground but the Racing Post has the same races as Good or Good to soft. Not sure which would be most accurate. Worth a gamble as this group sprint races can be won by any horse.

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 18th April *Bonfire > Newmarket 4:40 > WIN @ 5/2 Paddy Power BOG* Highly talented gelding. Won the Dante at York last year which was a Group 2, today is a Group 3. Finished 6th in the Derby behind Camelot, and was a disappointing 6th in the Coral-Eclipse. However, has since been gelded which can bring out major improvement. Always goes well fresh, has won on both of it's first seasonal outings. Balding yard in good nick.

[Irishbugger]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 18th April 3.30pm @ Newmarket 'Hawkeyethenoon' 11/2 (Ladbrokes / BOG) Some very good form last year in seemingly better races than todays. Moveintime won well the other day but this looks stronger than that race and I think Hawkeyethenoon has the stronger all round form. The Cheka should be the bigger danger but Hawkeye's form is marginally better and stable should have him ready to roll first time up. 1 point win

[Lodge]

20.25 - Wolverhampton - Prince Of Passion EW @ 14/1 StanJames Looks a big price for a horse that won off this mark over C&D a couple of starts ago. That race wasn't quite as competitive as this and he didn't have too much in hand that day but I think that he still has a decent chance if running his race. He has struggled since that win but didn't run all that badly last time out over 6f at this course. I'm hoping the return to 7f will be in his favour and that he can score again off the same mark as his last 2 wins

[Primevil]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 18th April 2.20 new SHE'S LATE 13/2 Hills bog Went to 120k at the sales, was supposed to run at newmarket and goodwood last back end. Gosden has always mentioned about it, and ill go with something of a quiet reputation at home.

[egg]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 18th April 4.05 Newm ~ Tawhid ~ 8/1(ladbrokes) Looks overpriced to me and given that Hannon's horses are still needing a run to put them right and the Godolphin horses are looking ready to go he may well outrun his odds in what could be a tactical affair. 1pt win

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 18th April Newm 4.40 - Premio loco - win at 8/1 bog wm hill With doubts around the overnight fave, Bonfire - he's drifting and connections say he might need the run - I'm taking a chance on the old timer, the 9 year old premio loco He's still capable of as good form as any of these, winning 3 group races last season, he's had an outing in the Winter Derby and should well suited if this turns into a tactical race. He might even make the running as he has in the past

[Boulder5111]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 18th April R5.05 Nellie Bly 1pt Win 14/1 Bet365 This one has a fitnes advantage over many of its rivals having raced just 2 weeks ago. The key here though is that the horse is making its turf debut after 4 runs on the all weather and on breeding should much prefer this surface and this track. Franny Norton is also a good booking and he's particularly good in sprint races - he's also got the best strike rate at the track of all the jockeys in the race.

[smith17]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 18th April 16.40 Newmarket: Bonfire, 5/2 Bet365, win Bonfire is having his first run of the season today. He won his debut race and won the group 2 Dante Stakes at York on his reappearance last season. Today's ground and distance will suit. Andrew Balding is in decent form and Jimmy Fortune is in the saddle.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 18th April The Wheels have fell off! One runner tonight so far;

20.25 - Wolverhampton - Prince Of Passion EW @ 14/1 StanJames Looks a big price for a horse that won off this mark over C&D a couple of starts ago. That race wasn't quite as competitive as this and he didn't have too much in hand that day but I think that he still has a decent chance if running his race. He has struggled since that win but didn't run all that badly last time out over 6f at this course. I'm hoping the return to 7f will be in his favour and that he can score again off the same mark as his last 2 wins

[DC]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 18th April 8:55 Wolverhampton JONNIE SKULL 4-1 BOG Graham Lee (rides Jonnie Skull tonight and hopefully he can add to this horses decent tally. Going for his 10th win over 7f (5f was too short last time out) and his 4th win at Wolverhampton this horse should be involved in the finish based on his last two runs at this course. Favourite Rise To Glory is up 7lbs for his recent win yet is drawn wider and half the price of my selection.