Cheltenham up or down?

[bowles10]

so did you finish up or down? were you eating steak today or a ready meal from tescos? i always hear after cheltenham that people say its too hard i prefer a c5 chase from carlisle, well for me you have to do WORK, its all about the WORK you put in. I was out with a few lads yesterday and they were looking at the race 2 mins before the off which is madness. I do my work from October onwards and in the lead up to the festival, i possibly do 6hrs sat, 6 hrs sun, 6hs monday then about 4hrs for each day to finish off the final bets for the next day. Perhaps that is just me but i do push the limits over cheltenham.

[Primevil]

Re: Cheltenham up or down? Any race your betting on, should take a min, of 30 mins, dependinding on the field size, obviousley longer if its bigger. Its harder because they are all trying(mostly), a 8 runner race at Carlise, may have 4 no hopers or triers IYO..so i can see that point. A good week for me, especially Friday, The King "Bobs worth", put the iceing on the cake, However The war is never won, Only battles.:ok

[The Saint]

Re: Cheltenham up or down? Judging by some Facebook pages around 80% of participants will claim to be up!!! Muppets! ;) A fair festival for me, largely down to Hurricane Fly on the Tuesday who was my only real bet, and some silly EW terms on the Gold Cup. Bob was fine but Long Run or Sir Des Champs would have been better. Got alot out of the Hurricane and for me it was complete vindication that the horse could and should have won last year despite connections subsequent comments. The 'new account' offers were not as good as in years gone by which goes to show how much the betting landscape has changed but the vast majority of the best ones were available through PL. The days of £250 matched or 4*£50 bets across the 4 days are long gone and have been replaced by Headline Acts such as SS at even money.... Shame :( Hurricane Fly the highlight for me with JT obvioulsy being a massive low.

[egg]

Re: Cheltenham up or down? won overall. mainly because of a couple of lucky 15s up and a Friday trixie. I'm not a big bettor by any stretch and my bets for the whole meeting revolved these which I combined in various bets , namely, Bob's Worth, Our Connor, Back In Focus, The New One, Champagne Fever, Reve De Sivola, My Tent Or Yours, Binocular. Couldn't decide between Champagne Fever or MTOY so combined the pair although MTOY would have seen more bets landed. Wish I'd left Binocular out as it was a heart instead of head selection. Once The New One won I had Fishers Cross in the final day trixie especially when the rain come. Was slightly concerned about the rain for Bob's Worth but with virgin ground to race on I thought he'd get away with it. Handicaps on the day cost me a few small bets and also chose the 'wrong' Mullins one in the bumper. Gave the wife a few quid to go towards Holiday, paid the share in my racehorse for a good few months and still got quadruple what i started the festival with.

[Aidymac]

Re: Cheltenham up or down? Was at Cheltenham on day 1. Had an e/w bet on Countrywide Flame @ 18/1, apart from that I drew a blank until the last day. Would have backed Champagne Fever only for the price.. In the last race I had £20 e/w on Rajdhani Express @ 20/1 on track and got back £520, that saved me bacon. I had a large bet on Salsify which made my festival, so up a few bob this year, but you do have to be selective with your picks.

[bowles10]

Re: Cheltenham up or down?

Was at Cheltenham on day 1. Had an e/w bet on Countrywide Flame @ 18/1' date=' apart from that I drew a blank until the last day. Would have backed Champagne Fever only for the price.. In the last race I had £20 e/w on Rajdhani Express @ 20/1 on track and got back £520, that saved me bacon. I had a large bet on Salsify which made my festival, so up a few bob this year, but you do have to be selective with your picks.[/quote'] lucky on Salsify then aidy, that was beaten until oscar made the mistake and unseated Champagne fever was 14s when i put it up last friday and i couldnt believe the price. My mistake was not having more on at that price as i backed it again with double stakes at 6/1 !! I also backed MTOY in the 1st as a cover and got money back on one of the specials. My L15's only returned a slight profit on once day and the others all returned lower than stake. I wanted to back Radjhani express and didnt, that was one that got away as did CArrick boy which was on my list to back and i went with the trends in the end and left it out of my bets sadly. Medinas was my biggest winner at 33s but i had to back 4 in the race at level stakes to find that one. The New One was a decent winner for me also as i took 11/2 i the morning. On the Friday i had a treble with Farwest, At Fishers crss and Bobs worth, that would have made my festival. In hindsight, i think a few covers are needed in future as i could have had 2 in the triumph and 2 in the gold cup to land the treble, At fishers cross was the banker for me and available at 3/1 the night before which i should have had a single on at that price (SP 11/8). On reflection, i landed a big handicap winner and won the 3 grade 1 novice hurdles. I didn't have a chase winner all week with bets on bobs worth not coming to fruition due to multipels and also my nap of the meeting Our Mick finishing 2nd. Trends finished up for the week so i could not lose really and i trust those so tend to keep other bets to a minimum. I love the meeting, it is the best festival in my opinion and the ultimate for jockeys / trainers etc Great to see the young lads Cooper, Twiston Davies and Powell Jnr getting winners at an early age

[Smarty72]

Re: Cheltenham up or down? Down for me! 35 pts anti-post for 19 pt return and although had a few winners on the day betting lost it all and more in the handicaps! First real year of Cheltenham betting for me, a few lessons learnt and hope for a better 2014!

[trips]

Re: Cheltenham up or down? Yeah i agree Aidy you have to be selective with your main bets otherwise you will have to be very lucky to win at Cheltenham,just too many races. Thought Hollywell was a excellent EW bet but put off my price drifting on Betfair and Mccoy riding another horse, so had a little ew bet on it, mixed feelings when it cantered in, had a decent anti post bet months ago at evens on Sprinte Sacre,also had him in a double with Silvianaco Conti at 7/1,convinced he would have won if staying up, wonder what price he was in running on Betfair before he fell, cant complain though had a 2 lucky winners destined for 2nd or 3rd place who sneaked in because of horses falling . broke even first day, won the other days so my best Cheltenham ever and ive backed in many Cheltenhams.

[Elchubb]

Re: Cheltenham up or down? Another successful festival, was looking at a small profit after Thursday and also looking like going two years without a handicap winner and then 2 pop up on the Friday in Ted Veale and Salubrious! Had backed At Fishers Cross a.p @ 7's, took the price boost on Bobs Worth in the morning and had the tricast up for the Gold Cup for what was an absolutely amazing end to the festival! Roll on Cheltenham 2014!!

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Cheltenham up or down? Down for me, done my b*llocks on my huge, only bet of the week Had £5 on Sir Des Champs Gutted

[Aykay1]

Re: Cheltenham up or down? I got off to a good start withg betvictor's free bet on the Supreme Novices - that went on Champagen Fever at 7/1 so it was hard to lose after that. I got Cue Card, which was my banker of the festival and got a few big prices placed which helped. I bottled backing Lord Windermere, which came out top on my trends for the race and went for Unioniste instead. Cursing after that :loon

[The Saint]

8 of 10 up!! Ha ha! Ho Hum.... :)

[Aidymac]

Re: Cheltenham up or down?

8 of 10 up!! Ha ha! Ho Hum.... :)

That is because most people that lose would prefer not to say so.

[The Saint]

That is because most people that lose would prefer not to say so.

You're probably right! All part it though imho. Any successful punter will have way more losing days than winning ones... If I lose, I lose - move on and learn from it! Well Done to anyone else that did end up in front on a very difficult meeting :ok

[Cashew]

Re: Cheltenham up or down? Down. Had a decent first two days thanks to Champagne Fever at 8/1 and Coral effectively giving me £20 for absolutely nothing on Sprinter Sacre. Unfortunately my loyalty to Zarkandar cost me in the Champion Hurdle and on Gold cup day I opted to place win singles rather than ew's and ended up with 3 second places! Far West, African Gold and Sir des Champs.

[Stakes n chips]

Re: Cheltenham up or down? Holywell (30/1 - Sp 25/1) on friday was a handy cover bet in the Pertemps for me which stemmed my outflows from the thursday which i personally felt was the toughest day to find winners on. I also got success on Sametegal to place in the JCB despite him being 17l behind Our Conor at the finish. Overall i made back my losses on the anteposte markets on the first two days and ended up roughly evens over the four days. Not bad for 4 solid days of high class entertainment i reckon. :)

[bowles10]

Re: Cheltenham up or down?

Overall i made back my losses on the anteposte markets on the first two days and ended up roughly evens over the four days. Not bad for 4 solid days of high class entertainment i reckon. :)

exactly, although i started the thread with that title up or down, it doesnt really matter as its not about who won the most or who was the best tipster. Its about learning as well, for me, i got so much right IMO and still missed some obvious ones. I dont back ew at Cheltenham and again that seemed to pay off for me, although one i forgot above was the horse 2nd to Quevega that Steve and I backed (i got 45.0), that was unlucky. Already cant wait for next year, it never fails to deliver.

[mowgli77]

Re: Cheltenham up or down? Worst Cheltenham ever (financially), lost absolutely loads. I usually only go small stakes in handicaps and more on the championship races and graded races. My 2 biggest bets of the week were on Long Run and First Lieutenant so I wasn't far away but I was chasing by then and was hoping Long Run could really pull me out of the brown stuff. The Saint has a point, whenever anyone asks me if I've had a winner or I mention one they say "You don't tell us about the losers" but I actually do.Most people seem to forget to mention losses, the accumulator lads who do the football coupons on a weekend are the worst for it, tell us about their £5 acca that returned £300 but don't tell us about the other 51 weeks of the year when they lost. Last Sunday I had £70 on Sixty Something via Coral and Bet365, I got £381 back and made £311 profit on the day. All that and more has gone this week at Cheltenham and I have had to look at that and ask myself why I have allowed myself to lose that profit over the space of 4 days plus much more. In the National Hunt season it all revolves around that week in March but betting wise it can't be like that, it has to be long term over the season. I'd started March really well and 4 days has wiped out anything I had made, gutted and kicking myself for being such a dick. If I hadn't spent time studying form and putting in the hourse then it would only be my own fault but I was up until 1am/2am most nights going through pieces of form but probably took in too much information. I was really keen on Our Conor for the Triumph and then read too much into the "No Irish winner since 2002" and fancied Rolling Star or Far West, going for the Henderson one in the end. That's what hurts the most, all that time studying and nothing to show for it except a string of losses on the spreadsheet. Backed 2 yesterday, one just didn't seem to go on the ground (My Boy Paddy) and the other (Gallox Bridge) had Tricky Dicky Johnson on and he fell off when about 3-4 lengths clear and not yet asked the horse for an effort, bloody typical. In the past I've taken the week off for Cheltenham and made £200, £400 and the best year around £800 based on £10-£20 average bets, the odd £40 here and there. This year I've lost hundreds, sometimes because I've gone with the price over the horse I felt would win and at other times just made a wrong decision based on A or B and gone with the wrong horse. I am recording all my bets though so I know exactly how much I've lost, what types of races I've lost on (not even close to the first 4) and those that weren't far away and I can't ignore losses when I have figures to depress me even more. This is the first year I haven't really gone into a festival with an idea of which horses I'd be backing. I've got a small list of horses that included Bobs Worth, Simonsig and Sprinter Sacre but of course 2 of them were odds on and I went against Bobs Worth due to the break and opted for a sharper Long Run. If I knew it would effectively be used as a pacemaker I'd never have backed it. I'll be aiming to win some of it back at Aintree and Punchestown and then on to the flat season. I've got some decent ante post bets for that and this year was different at Cheltenham because I had no strong ante post fancies and had no idea where horses were heading so didn't get stuck in. Well done to those in profit who had a finacially good festival, wish I could say the same but then I'd be lying to you and myself and that would get me nowhere.

[bowles10]

Re: Cheltenham up or down? one point i made to someone on friday night although well pissed by then, i think it was vlaid. If you had a £200 bank say for Cheltenham, would you rather back all the horses hoping to pull off a big win OR simply do a £200 win double on Simonsig and SS which paid £428 a profit of £228 and then sit back and enjoy the rest???? Looks simple doesn't it! i recorded all my cheltenham bets also phil, good to look back on and see what happened i for one am one of those people that invest far more during cheltenham week, 100% more than a normal saturday on each day

[The Saint]

Great Post Mowgli.... I don't want to doubt that we have so many winners on here - not for a second. I just don't think the Maths dictate that we can!! I can tell u now that the start of 2013 has been my worst in the last 6 years (easily) as far as backing goes. My ROI is less than 3% so that basically means one false step and I'm showing a loss! Lays are ok but few and far between and are still a new venture for me. I'm putting this downturn in fortune to me not paying enough attention to the on course market on the AW and alot of bent racing! I'd rather blame that than bad luck. My placed efforts are through the roof but that's no consolation although it does give me reassurance that I'm still in the right ball park... As for Cheltenham in isolation, I think that as a rule there is too much hype. That won't be a popular opinion and as a spectacle it's amazing. It's well documented that I know nothing (not enough) about jumpers but even from my lowly standing I'd possibly recommend sticking to non handicap races... I'd say its a fair bet that most would improve SR and ROI if they did that. I reverse this logic on the flat to be fair and as I say - am no expert over the sticks.... An amazing occasion but I feel it's important to point out the obvious. A 3/1 winner at Cheltenham pays exactly the same as a 3/1 winner at Wolves.... I had many bets over Cheltenham but the only ones I piled into were the ones where Bookmakers terms made it almost difficult for me to lose... Evens SS(impossible to pile into!), 1/3 odds EW Champion Hurdle, 1/4 Odds Gold Cup and Powers money back if Hurricane didn't win was easy to exploit through trades. This meeting cannot be beat as an occasion but there are better betting opportunities throughout the year - for me anyway. Continued Good Luck to all of Cheltenham's winners and stay in control to all those who didn't end up in front this time :)

[egg]

Re: Cheltenham up or down? It is a very hard meet to beat Saint, no doubt. Think this year is one of the few in over 20 years that I have won big. I used to save all my money for Cheltenham and go roaring in all guns blazing and come out with nowt. This year I set a small bank aside and I set a few rules: 1. Dont listen to or read trainers/pundits or jockeys comments. 2. Trust my own judgement 3. MINIMUM stakes in the handicaps 4. Don't change my mind 5. Don't chase any losses Too many times I've done at least one of the above before and it's proved costly. Maybe I got lucky this year and maybe it was the rules I set myself, I dunno. I still made a couple of mistakes but overall I was pretty disciplined. I have deposit limits set on my accounts too to avoid tilting chases as in the past I have done so. I have found that in the past if you bet too big or with money you can't afford to lose then there is zero enjoyment in what is the greatest show in racing.

[cpo]

Re: Cheltenham up or down? Got off a to a great start with Champagne Fever but after that it was pretty much downhill! Came out of Tuesday with a small profit but had a tough time of it Wednesday and ended up chasing losses on Thursday which was probably the toughest day in terms of finding winners. Backed Our Connor and Bob's Worth on the Friday with smaller bets than I would hoped for and my whole week could have been saved had Oscar Delta not jinked and unshipped his jockey. Still loved almost every second of the festival and I am preparing a Bobs Worth tin which I will fill with ante-post bets for next years Gold Cup. Plan to back this horse every week from now until next year so fingers crossed.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Cheltenham up or down? Down for me pulled a bit back with Salubrious on the last Day but first three days were total crap for me. A bit gutted i didn't follow NTD runners as i usually do i thought they had a virus of some sort in the yard! Looking forward to the flat fed up with the jumps now to be honest. Well done to all that made profit but be careful there's 52 weeks punting a year not just the one!

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Cheltenham up or down? For the 3rd time in 3 years I drew a blank on the first day, before clawing it all back and more with a very profitable last two days. I dont know why that is, maybe something to do with the characteristics of the different course or maybe because I start bricking it and put in more hours! The races I enjoy most are them big handicaps which I am pretty sure are not everyone's cup of tea, but there is nothing better than knowing you solved the 24+ piece puzzle, especially considering the price is normally pretty good too! Roll on Aintree... Although I was crap there last year!

[Cnhptl]

Re: Cheltenham up or down? I had a good festival to be fair. Had Champagne Fever, Simonsig, HF and Quevega which was 350 off a fiver. Up 250 for Tuesday Lost 80 on Wednesday and 40 on Thursday Friday was sick. Reverse FC on Our Connor and Far West, went big on Bobs Worth which paid off, then went even bigger on Salsify where I got lucky. Ended up around 4 ton.

[Karijini]

Re: Cheltenham up or down? Was almost a total wipeout for me, sad to say. In fact those few days wiped out 66% of all my profit from the last 4 months! Argh... hurts just thinking about it.

[bowles10]

Re: Cheltenham up or down?

Was almost a total wipeout for me, sad to say. In fact those few days wiped out 66% of all my profit from the last 4 months! Argh... hurts just thinking about it.

no criticism intended but with the likes of Simonsig, Sprintre Sacre, H Run, Quevega, Bobs worth, At fishers cross all winning, i assume you backed against them or got too heavily involved in the tricky hcaps? my view of having £200 on the simonsig / SS double stacks up a bit with profit from 2 races where one was unbeatable and the other close to being unbeatable.

[Karijini]

Re: Cheltenham up or down?

no criticism intended but with the likes of Simonsig' date=' Sprintre Sacre, H Run, Quevega, Bobs worth, At fishers cross all winning, i assume you backed against them or got too heavily involved in the tricky hcaps? [/quote'] Was pretty much all said and done on the large fields. Opted for some value on some you mentioned with no result. In any case, back to normal operation now and recovered 25% of the loss. Just a bump in the road is all.

[Aidymac]

Re: Cheltenham up or down?

no criticism intended but with the likes of Simonsig, Sprintre Sacre, H Run, Quevega, Bobs worth, At fishers cross all winning, i assume you backed against them or got too heavily involved in the tricky hcaps? my view of having £200 on the simonsig / SS double stacks up a bit with profit from 2 races where one was unbeatable and the other close to being unbeatable.

All fine and dandy when they win Bowles, but Hurricane Fly was everyone's banker last year at 8/11 and he got mullered. Not so pretty if you had £200 on him doubled up with Quevega the year previous. There is no value putting that sort of money on shorties at Cheltenham, only the week before Chelters you were saying you were staying away from all the short priced favourite's.

[Lodge]

Re: Cheltenham up or down? Cheltenham was disappointing for me. Was hoping to make a decent profit but didn't back a winner (bar Sprinter Sacre) till the Friday. Then had Salsify and At Fisher Cross which pulled it back so I broke even. The majority of my selections ran poorly which made it even more disappointing to be honest. Had abit of a break in the last week, have hardly watched a race. I often find having abit of time out helps me sometimes. Roll on the flat season!