MPLouis Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Re: Championship > 29th Jan - 2nd Feb So far this season' date=' Championship underdogs of better than 4.0 are 39-27-70.[/quote'] OK - so I think that means - 39 underdogs won 27 were draws 70 favourites won If you got odds of 4.0 or better and bet 10 points on each underdog, you would have staked 136 x 10 = 1360 points. And if 39 won, your bets would have returned 39 x 40 = 1560 points, a yield of 1560/1360 = 14.7%. Have I got that right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allthethings Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Re: Championship > 29th Jan - 2nd Feb OK - so I think that means - 39 underdogs won 27 were draws 70 favourites won If you got odds of 4.0 or better and bet 10 points on each underdog, you would have staked 136 x 10 = 1360 points. And if 39 won, your bets would have returned 39 x 40 = 1560 points, a yield of 1560/1360 = 14.7%. Have I got that right? Yes, except that I sometimes play the draw rather than the win. This season the division is a bit topsy turvy...normally there are more draws than wins by huge dogs the higher the odds go, but this year there have been more wins than draws. Consequently, I've been losing money in Championship. I'm winning large amounts in Premier, on the other hand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allthethings Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Re: Championship > 29th Jan - 2nd Feb Having said all that, I think I made two terrible picks today! :lol 52' Sako...bets just got a lot better Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Re: Championship > 29th Jan - 2nd Feb Yes' date=' except that I sometimes play the draw rather than the win. This season the division is a bit topsy turvy...normally there are more draws than wins by huge dogs the higher the odds go, but this year there have been more wins than draws. Consequently, I've been losing money in Championship. I'm winning large amounts in Premier, on the other hand.[/quote'] Thanks. Couldn't you just lay the favourite on Betfair? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allthethings Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Re: Championship > 29th Jan - 2nd Feb Thanks. Couldn't you just lay the favourite on Betfair? If I had access to Betfair. But also, what I learned last year as I really started backing underdogs was that what makes it a good bet is the amount of money you can win when you hit. Last year I had a small handful of days where I lost 4 units and a larger number of days where I won 15 units. The upside is much higher than the downside is down over time. This year I did have one Saturday where with five minutes to go I was looking at a 5- to 10-unit win, and all six games where I was leading tanked right at the end. I hadn't experienced a 16-unit loss before doing this...pretty bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allthethings Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Re: Championship > 29th Jan - 2nd Feb To amplify...if I play 20 games on a given Saturday, I need to hit 4 or 5 to profit, or sometimes 4 to record a small loss. The worst weeks I usually hit 3 upsets (around -4 units)...the best, around 8 (+12) or 9 (+16). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allthethings Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Re: Championship > 29th Jan - 2nd Feb I hate that. 90' Sylvan Ebanks-Blake hits a good left footed shot, but it is off target. Outcome: hit post Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Re: Championship > 29th Jan - 2nd Feb To amplify...if I play 20 games on a given Saturday' date=' I need to hit 4 or 5 to profit, or sometimes 4 to record a small loss. The worst weeks I usually hit 3 upsets (around -4 units)...the best, around 8 (+12) or 9 (+16).[/quote'] You mean backing underdogs to win at odds of 4 or more I think. I understand what you mean by backing the straight long-odds win. You won't win so often but when you do, you win big. Regarding backing underdogs generally, I like doing this but find the results highly variable. Sometimes I definitely find it's a losing strategy. You've obviously found ways of making it work for you, so congratulations :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Re: Championship > 29th Jan - 2nd Feb I hate that. 90' Sylvan Ebanks-Blake hits a good left footed shot, but it is off target. Outcome: hit post Listening on the radio, it sounded as though Wolves had the better of the second half and could easily have won. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedDevil92 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Re: Championship > 29th Jan - 2nd Feb Watford-Bolton over 2.5 @1.71 6/10 Pinnacle Watford lost to Bristol City on tuesday 0-2 as coach Zola made six changes in total including the change in the striking department as he left the 30-goal-pair Vydra and Deeney on the bench for one hour. For this match, they are expected to be back and to lead the offense. The Hornets have the best offense with 56 goals made but they do also concede plenty of goals due to their offensive style of play. Bolton have seen 10 out of 14 away matches finishing with at least 3 goals. Furthermore Bolton are the poorest travellers along with Bristol City. Should be goals in this match with Watford winning. Possible score 2-1 or 3-1 GL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
United4prem Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Re: Championship > 29th Jan - 2nd Feb whats up guys 1st post , have palace in a bet for tomorrow ? what yous thinking ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malabgd Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Re: Championship > 29th Jan - 2nd Feb Injuries and suspensions Crystal Palace v Charlton Athletic (South London derby) Crystal Palace: Jedinak (28/2 m), Moritz (21/5 m) (both doubtful), McCarthy (0/0 d), Ward (18/0 d), Garvan (24/4 m), Dikgacoi (24/4 m) Charlton Athletic: Haynes (11/5 f) (doubtful), Hughes (0/0 m) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick92 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Re: Championship > 29th Jan - 2nd Feb Peterborough-Burnley Peterborough-Average goals scored at home – 1.57 Average goals conceded – 2.07 Burnley Average goals scored on the road -1.5 Average goals conceded away – 1.86 Therefore, Peterborough should score 1.715 with Burnley should score 1.785. A total of 3. Borough go overs at home 78% of times. Southampton away go overs 57% of times. There is a 67% chance of overs. With William Hill overs is 1.65 (60% chance). Decent Value BTTS - Peterborough score in the game at home 85% of the time Burnley score away 80%. peterborough keep clean sheet 7% of the time. Burnley 20% clean sheets on travels. peterborough to score – 83% burnely to score – 80%. 81.5% chance of Btts Both teams to score is 1.53 with Hills (representing a 65% chance) - value here. 5 points on the BTTS Market - yes . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymboy34 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Re: Championship > 29th Jan - 2nd Feb derby v huddersfield pick derby -1.0 2.47 derby back at home where they have been strong all season and back with their striker robinson who missed their fa cup game which they crashed out. they will be looking to get back to business at home in the championship. huddersfield 6 games without a victory away and only won their first game in 12 v an out of sort c palace team. I think derby will be to strong for them and they've been scoring plenty at home recently so should be able to carry the -1.0 ahcap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymboy34 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Re: Championship > 29th Jan - 2nd Feb posh v burnley pick posh ahcap 0 2.24 the posh were having a good run untill they lost some star players but 2 are back for this one being tomlin and zakuani and they've still got boyd atleast for this game. burnley were also going on a good run until their form dipped on the last game and they have been a lot stronger home then away. I think the return of their star players and holding on till boyd for now will be enuf to boost their return to form and give them a good chance of turning over burnley. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymboy34 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Re: Championship > 29th Jan - 2nd Feb millwall v hull pick under 2.25 1.97 both teams strugggling for form and confidence with the momentum going against them. Millwall struggling or lacking in the striker department and hull even when on winning run were not scoring many goals and they have a very good defence. I can not see where the goals will come from in this game, both struggling for form probaly be a cagey afair also. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Re: Championship > 29th Jan - 2nd Feb Blackpool v Barnsley I know this has already been tipped, but I think Barnsley are very good value even at the new lower odds. Barnsley are in better form than Blackpool and shouldn't be higher than around 3.5 imho. Blackpool have won one in their last five home games and Barnsley seem to have a decent record there. Barnsley DNB 3.75 Coral Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Re: Championship > 29th Jan - 2nd Feb Blackpool v Barnsley I know this has already been tipped, but I think Barnsley are very good value even at the new lower odds. Barnsley are in better form than Blackpool and shouldn't be higher than around 3.5 imho. Blackpool have won one in their last five home games and Barnsley seem to have a decent record there. Barnsley DNB 3.75 Coral FT: 1-2 Bet won :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedDevil92 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Re: Championship > 29th Jan - 2nd Feb Watford-Bolton over 2.5 @1.71 6/10 Pinnacle Watford lost to Bristol City on tuesday 0-2 as coach Zola made six changes in total including the change in the striking department as he left the 30-goal-pair Vydra and Deeney on the bench for one hour. For this match, they are expected to be back and to lead the offense. The Hornets have the best offense with 56 goals made but they do also concede plenty of goals due to their offensive style of play. Bolton have seen 10 out of 14 away matches finishing with at least 3 goals. Furthermore Bolton are the poorest travellers along with Bristol City. Should be goals in this match with Watford winning. Possible score 2-1 or 3-1 GL 2:1 bet won Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AHughes Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Re: Championship > 29th Jan - 2nd Feb 0-1 FT. BET LOST Dont see any value in backing Leicester tonight. They're now as short as 1.45, Wolves are a little mystery under the moment as new manager Dean Saunders tries to get his insight on his team. No Bet for me. Two away teams interest me this Saturday who are possibly a little overpriced. Barnsley at Blackpool: Barnsley are now undefeated in 5 since Keith Hill's sacking and David Flitcroft's appointment. More importantly they are not conceding goals, only concededing one in those 5 games away at Ipswich. Managerless Blackpool got their 1st victory of the year at Wolves last time out. That day they were not the best capatilsing on Roger Johnsons defensive mistakes for their goals. They did not create much else apart from that. Barnsley DNB - 4.4 Coral :ok Bristol City at Blackburn: Sean O'Driscoll has had a good start to life down in the west country with Bristol City. They have lifted themselves off the bottom with 2 straight wins on the bounce defeating two very in-form sides in Ipswich and Watford. Last time out however they defeated Watford comfortably who did not really threat the Robins goal. Blackburn are not the greatest side at home and seem to put in better performances away from Ewood Park, they have put in two disappointing performances at home of late. The attendances at Ewood Park are not great this season with many empty seats and that can give the away side a huge advantage. Colin Kazim-Richards has been re-called by parent club Galatarasay and with Nuno Gomes out injured, Rovers are light upfront. I think Bristol City can take advantage of all of this and nick a possible victory. Bristol City DNB - 4.4 Coral :eek 1 out of 2. However, still gives a nice profit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisey10 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Re: Championship > 29th Jan - 2nd Feb Some great calls in the championship this weekend:ok Great calls on Barnsley and some top work by gym boy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymboy34 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Re: Championship > 29th Jan - 2nd Feb Some great calls in the championship this weekend:ok Great calls on Barnsley and some top work by gym boy. thx buddy. For the top marks. decided to be more agressive and more towards gut instinct and little bit less value. Sometimes you can be sidetracked by this value thing and miss some good plays. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mindfulness Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Re: Championship > 29th Jan - 2nd Feb Sometimes you can be sidetracked by this value thing and miss some good plays. :eek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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