The Saint Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 Re: Bent AW Racing..... 330 Lingfield - Neige Detan - Never seems to be out of first 2 - just gone from 3s to 13/2 in ten minutes and still climbing? Apologies if it's bolted or got lose - am not next to TV at present Finishes last. Never travelled and managed to take the widest route all the way round from stall 3. And another thing that stinks about this is the commentator reporting on course bookmakers shoving the horse back in to 9/4 from 5/1 on course when it was still trading between 6 and 7 on the exchanges. Will any of this get looked into?! Will it balls!!! It's a complete farce - genuine question - why don't the Jockey Club do anything about it?!!! Seems I was beaten to the punchline! What did Ennis say? JOCKEY CLUB???!?!?!? HHHHHHHEEEEEEEELLLLLLLLOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!????????????????? :wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
south_eastern_ram Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Re: Bent AW Racing..... It's becoming increasingly frustrating. I reckon i've spotted one for tomorrow, pretty sure im gunna be on, Mary's Pet in the 2.35 Lingfield. Has to lead to win with no other clear pace angle in the race. Has been held up last couple of starts. Drawn 1 with Kirby booked. Very well handicapped now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nickf88 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Re: Bent AW Racing..... It's becoming increasingly frustrating. I reckon i've spotted one for tomorrow, pretty sure im gunna be on, Mary's Pet in the 2.35 Lingfield. Has to lead to win with no other clear pace angle in the race. Has been held up last couple of starts. Drawn 1 with Kirby booked. Very well handicapped now. Probably gonna sound like bullsh*t here but genuinely have a friend who's mates with a close contact to the trainer for that horse. They were all on huge when it lost at Chepstow last year by a nose, money is usually the best guide so you're probably on the right track. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 Re: Bent AW Racing..... We'll soon see SER when we have a butchers at the market. Fair play if you can anticipate them before they tumble. Do More Business certainyl has the ability to win but is a complete dodgepot of Harchibald proportions so I will be avoiding.... AM so cross about how blatent some of this is I found the Jockey Club website to see what 'jobs' they had going - to be honest I'd help for free if I thought anything would get done! Betfair do a better job than they do reporting strange betting patterns. Chopra, Heffernon et al - why the hell aren't The Police involved?!? It's a joke - no detterent not to cheat. Oh - the Jockey Club, 'Please note: we only recruit new employees when we have vacancies, so please do not send us your CV on a speculative basis. They don't have any vacancies....! Bunch of useless waste of time idiots. Do they even care about the reputation of Racing?! WHO are they answerable to? Noone as far as I can see! Oh well.... Best learn to live with it then! WRONG TREE - apparently the BHA are in charge of the integrity of Racing - I am going to offer my services for free!!! :nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
south_eastern_ram Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Re: Bent AW Racing..... Probably gonna sound like bullsh*t here but genuinely have a friend who's mates with a close contact to the trainer for that horse. They were all on huge when it lost at Chepstow last year by a nose' date=' money is usually the best guide so you're probably on the right track.[/quote'] I remember seeing one of theres run in the 'Lowther' colours at Folkestone, owned by a 'Marsh'. I presumed it was him and his mates who were the owners who were on course, they all looked 'geezerish' and as if they in it for the gambling, more than the love of horse racing. Only first impressions so could be way off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nickf88 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Re: Bent AW Racing..... PM'd you SER :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted February 1, 2013 Author Share Posted February 1, 2013 Re: Bent AW Racing..... It's becoming increasingly frustrating. I reckon i've spotted one for tomorrow, pretty sure im gunna be on, Mary's Pet in the 2.35 Lingfield. Has to lead to win with no other clear pace angle in the race. Has been held up last couple of starts. Drawn 1 with Kirby booked. Very well handicapped now. A great shout Price Wise - in from 6.0 to a low of 3.15 on Betfair to any sort of money - as high as 8.6 for some money... Hope it goes in for you. With BSPs of 34 and 113 in her last 2 runs, the form student is once again left bemused by the current price!! Best from the front I know and has around 30lbs to make up on the top rated today on last few runs.... Nothing on the AW....:lol Good Luck!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bartrum Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Re: Bent AW Racing..... overnight paper fav is out aswell.....actually looking forward to watching this one, no financial interest but intregued!!!! A great shout Price Wise - in from 6.0 to a low of 3.15 on Betfair to any sort of money - as high as 8.6 for some money... Hope it goes in for you. With BSPs of 34 and 113 in her last 2 runs, the form student is once again left bemused by the current price!! Best from the front I know and has around 30lbs to make up on the top rated today on last few runs.... Nothing on the AW....:lol Good Luck!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stat man Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Re: Bent AW Racing..... Spellmaker to lose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stat man Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Re: Bent AW Racing..... Oh well, can't win em all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted February 1, 2013 Author Share Posted February 1, 2013 Re: Bent AW Racing..... overnight paper fav is out aswell.....actually looking forward to watching this one' date=' no financial interest but intregued!!!![/quote'] What to make of it now?? Massive drift on course as far out as 8.6 I believe - and this with the commentators talking it up... I took this to show that the horse wouldn't be breaking particularly well and how wrong that proved to be!! Previous race, Artful Lady went 6/4 late on course yet never deviated from around 3.5 on the exchanges. Same with Neige yesterday. On Course books are artificially shortening horses and SP punters are being ripped off in no uncertain terms. ATR pointing it out - tis not just me - BSP should become industry standard imho. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FedericoBTH Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Re: Bent AW Racing..... I was on Domorebusiness and I really love Adam Kirby as a jockey but I absolutely didn't understand his ride today... Top stuff by Spellmaker though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted February 1, 2013 Author Share Posted February 1, 2013 Re: Bent AW Racing..... I was on Domorebusiness and I really love Adam Kirby as a jockey but I absolutely didn't understand his ride today... Top stuff by Spellmaker though. In what respect? You thought he went off too fast or to wide into the straight? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FedericoBTH Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Re: Bent AW Racing..... In what respect? You thought he went off too fast or to wide into the straight? Too fast and too soon imho. And the fact the horse didn't run out of gas finishing behind the winner just by less than 2l after such a run made me think it was a poor choice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stat man Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Re: Bent AW Racing..... Spellmaker to lose. At least I got some money back by trading out on the SE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted February 1, 2013 Author Share Posted February 1, 2013 Too fast and too soon imho. And the fact the horse didn't run out of gas finishing behind the winner just by less than 2l after such a run made me think it was a poor choice. Am more than happy to take that on board as given the on course drift I assumed and gamble was off!!! Because so much/some of it is bent, I'm getting to suspicious/cynical of everything!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Primevil Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Re: Bent AW Racing..... Am more than happy to take that on board as given the on course drift I assumed and gamble was off!!! Because so much/some of it is bent' date=' I'm getting to suspicious/cynical of everything!![/quote'] M8 I am very suspicious and cynical about this sport, but occasionaly you get races that are 100% straight. If anyone did not put the two winners(nose in it) down for later on///// for early spring Ling Derby, Doncaster, or even Ireland...They have not got a clue about the game. That was just about the sweetest run race I have seen on the AW all season. 2min 4s, outstanding time for the day, and probably in a long time. Infinate Magic King George River Big money to be made following these two.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted February 1, 2013 Author Share Posted February 1, 2013 M8 I am very suspicious and cynical about this sport, but occasionaly you get races that are 100% straight. If anyone did not put the two winners(nose in it) down for later on///// for early spring Ling Derby, Doncaster, or even Ireland...They have not got a clue about the game. That was just about the sweetest run race I have seen on the AW all season. 2min 4s, outstanding time for the day, and probably in a long time. Infinate Magic King George River Big money to be made following these two.:ok Beat of Luck with those. Just in case it's not clear - I was discussing the ride on Mary's Pet - just in case things got muddled! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Primevil Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Re: Bent AW Racing..... Beat of Luck with those. Just in case it's not clear - I was discussing the ride on Mary's Pet - just in case things got muddled! No probs M8...my fault...now were did i put those tablets! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Re: Bent AW Racing..... Tony Carroll could be planning to chop it right off at Lingfield tomorrow. Secret Millionaire in the first leg of the sprint series (7/2) and Time Medicean has plot job written all over it in the second division. 13/2 still available, could go off 11/4 tomorrow. EW double on the pair pays nice........ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowan Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Re: Bent AW Racing..... I've looked at some of the horses/races people have posted up to prove one point or another and I've noticed something. These are Class 6 races! - Stop looking at Class 6 races! Winter racing only exists to give punters a horse to bet on. The types of animal racing at this time WILL NOT be as good as those racing in the prestigious Flat Season. It follows that a Class 6 race on the AW consists of degenerate animals which compete in race after race simply to provide a market for the Bookmaker to take his overround. Look at the Cards on a typical All Weather weekday - Maidens, sellers, claimers, Class 6 handicaps - You're lucky to find a good race! Also remember that only the All Weather has a Class 7 - can you believe it?! Horses that wouldn't get a race anywhere else - They are just there so that people have something to bet on! I have made a profit on the AW for 3 consecutive seasons and do you know how many class 6 races I've bet on? None! Not a one. I look for a minimum of Class 5 All Age Handicap and I get about 5 a week. Thats it - just 5 decent races a week. But at least the form works out ok. I'm not going to tell you that everything is hunky-dory if you avoid Class 6 - but it's A LOT BETTER! Taking into account what I've said about the quality of AW racing - by betting AW Class 6 you open yourself up to all the crazy sh!t that people mention here. EDIT Also, ask youself how many Class 6 races you would bet on in a typical week during the Flat Season? ...not many. You'd likely look for better quality races. Therefore don't throw those values out the window and then bet on Class 6 day after day during the winter! You need to do better than that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erhaab1965 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Re: Bent AW Racing..... There is a point to this - it's not just a moan... Secret Millionaire has just won at 6/4 having been backed all night and all day. A gambling stable and I'm prepared to accept that this happens, it's part of the game etc etc etc. 50s, 50s and 66/1 last 3 starts.... 56 days off, 6/4 - bang!!!! Ok - apparently this is acceptable and nothing will be done about it - so I'll accept it. I mean the whole sport is gonna doe on it's arse soon because Trainers have to do this to make money so I am told - because Prize Money is rubbish n all that... Tony Caroll practically pisses himself in the pre race interview and in he goes - ah well - just eat **** and get on with it.... What was also remarkable about the betting market was Beach Candy drifting from 4.5 to 14.5!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Obviously some horses will drift because of the favourite being backed but that was ridiculous. Galvanised by front running tactics last 2 runs, the Jockey is well drawn in 3 or 4 (can't recall) and practically gets his arms pulled out restraining the animal before taking him out wide and finishing plum last.... I know the game is corrupt (MY OPINON - NOT THAT OF PUNTER'S LOUNGE), it's just come throught that the BHA are having yet another investigation into corruption etc but my point is this..... Can you make money following the market? I don't have a big enough sample size of my bets (and the way they moved in the market) to draw conclusions but it's sickening when it's clearly as bent as it is and nothing is being done about it.... Not all drifters lose, not all backed horses win.... We know that - but there is a disproportionate amount of horses that are winning after 'smart' money. My gut feel is that I would be better off waiting until the off and assessing the positivity in my selections before punting them... Obviously I will miss out on decent early prices on occassion but I fell I will save bets that in effect have no chance whatsoever.... Anyone care to discuss this?! Which is kind of my point I guess!! Dunno - just about in front for the month..... Was just about in front last month.... Either I'm off form or the game is getting harder and harder... Perhaps it's just the AW but nearly every significant drifter I back loses and these dodgy gambles are gettin beyond a joke.... :( Secret Millionaire is currently owned by Terry Ramsden a flamboyant guy who had over 100 horses in the 80s. He was / maybe still is a degenerate gambler who used to have million pound bets, he eventually ended up owing millions to Ladbrokes and lost his £100,000,000 business and ended up in prison. He bought the horse last summer with the intention of handbraking his OR down to eventually land a gamble. Now the cat is out of the bag,expect some more losing runs.Might be worth laying. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dboth Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Re: Bent AW Racing..... I think Cowan is spot on Can I share my experience? Last year my son created a spreadsheet to record our bets including an historical record. It proved really valuable in helping identify the areas where our method worked best and by concentrating on those areas we have been able to improve our margins. One jaw dropping stat that analysis of the results revealed was the massive difference between the ROI on our class 5 and higher selections and the ROI on class 6 and 7 bets.The former was 21% and the latter 6.5% both achieved using the same method both in terms of selection and price benchmarking.I should add that the class 6 ROI was boosted by a 66/1 winner at Southwell(backed EW) .Without this the class 6 ROI would have been barely positive. Our sample size might be too small (925 selections class 5 and higher , 702 class 6 and 7)maybe a mathematician could advise but assuming the figures are representative the conclusion is clear. Avoid Class 6 and 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted February 2, 2013 Author Share Posted February 2, 2013 Re: Bent AW Racing..... I think Cowan is spot on Can I share my experience? Last year my son created a spreadsheet to record our bets including an historical record. It proved really valuable in helping identify the areas where our method worked best and by concentrating on those areas we have been able to improve our margins. One jaw dropping stat that analysis of the results revealed was the massive difference between the ROI on our class 5 and higher selections and the ROI on class 6 and 7 bets.The former was 21% and the latter 6.5% both achieved using the same method both in terms of selection and price benchmarking.I should add that the class 6 ROI was boosted by a 66/1 winner at Southwell(backed EW) .Without this the class 6 ROI would have been barely positive. Our sample size might be too small (925 selections class 5 and higher , 702 class 6 and 7)maybe a mathematician could advise but assuming the figures are representative the conclusion is clear. Avoid Class 6 and 7 Excellent first post!! :welcome Cowan and yourself are probably right. I will just say though, in the past, Class 6 races have been just as profitable to me as Class 1 races. More frustrating but at least as profitable. I'm not betting on them through some compulsion or need to bet. This AW season, I am marginally ahead and my interpreatation is that the game has become more corrupt than ever as opposed to my game being completely off - hance the thread!! I don't know - perhaps one season (that hasn't finished!) is not a big enough sample size to draw conclusions. Look forward to reading some more posts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Re: Bent AW Racing..... Agree with the comments about class 6 racing and have mentioned previously that due to the prize money there is always going to be more chance of corruption at that level. Your average class 6 race might be worth about 1k-3k to the winner. When that is divided between trainer, owners, jockey and then also accounts for petrol etc there are only peanuts left. If they wanted to clean up racing then I'd say get rid of class 6 racing full stop. As Cowan says it's just there to provide a betting opportunity, the same way FOBT's and Virtual Racing are. When you start looking at class 3 and above there are less dodgy looking races, less handbraking (although it still happens obviously to influence OR) and better prize money. If the jockey stands to get about £100 from a ride at Wolverhampton and someone is offering him £500+ to stop the horse he's going to be tempted. It's about risk-reward, the same reason prison officers that earn about 19k will bring in a mobile phone for a prisoner and get 1k in their back pocket. The consistency of form at class 6 level seems to be all over the place, horses reversing form week in week out, some unfathomable results and some crooked gambles. If class 6 racing is often some kind of lottery you might as well just throw your money on the next at Thunder Valley or whatever it's called. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bartrum Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Re: Bent AW Racing..... i would lay secret millionaire all day long today due to to many things including what was mentioned above about ramsden aswell as the trip etc.... Haddeeth has halved in price over night for evans, makes me not so confident about rich again!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Re: Bent AW Racing..... I think some guys just get a thrill out of trying to pinpoint 'possible' plots, backing them the night before in the hope they are on at a good price. For me it beggars belief why you should waste your valuable time in this practice when you have absolutely no evidence to back up this theory and then scream from the rooftops when you miss out on one or are thwarted by another gamble elsewhere in the race. Many good judges on here have in the past stated that discipline in betting is key, the very same people seem to completely forget this when it comes to betting on the AW or so it seems to me anyhow or maybe i'm missing the point of this thread which shouts constantly that lower grade racing on sand is both unreliable and fodder to the mug punters in which they are obviously aimed at. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted February 2, 2013 Author Share Posted February 2, 2013 Re: Bent AW Racing..... Well that was an informative morning!! In light of some of the above I have gone through every single bet I've had on the AW for the last 2 years and found the following; [ATTACH]4127[/ATTACH] The Strike Rate and ROI were almost identical in CLASS 5 and above as they were in CLASS 6 and below... It was only when I broke the results down into 2012 and 2013 that I was somewhat alarmed by what I found; [ATTACH]4128[/ATTACH] The SRs for 2012 and 2013 were almost identical concerning the Higher Class of Racing. Most alarming was the abject failure to make any in roads in CLASS 6 and below during 2013. These results include a 14/1 winner amongst the 4 and without that the figures would be even more catastrophic. It's a small sample but what can I conclude? The easiest and probably most accurate conclusions are that it is now impossible to make it pay through form analysis in Class 6 and below races. My technique, form reading/analysis has not changed a bit so it's plain to see (to me anyway) that corruption at these levels has increased dramatically. Overall, form is not the most important thing at this low level - nowhere near. I will continue to bet on some Class 6 events but they will be few and far between and involve horses that are proven to be consistent at the level and not just put in a 'flash in the pan' performance. Tricky, tricky times. Not looking forward to going through turf results with relation to Class later!!!! :eyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 How can you look at 2013 when there's only been a month of it! Class 6 works out well for me. Granted, form reading is largely irrelevant at the low end, but there are other ways of looking at these races. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted February 2, 2013 Author Share Posted February 2, 2013 Re: Bent AW Racing..... How can you look at 2013 when there's only been a month of it! Class 6 works out well for me. Granted' date=' form reading is largely irrelevant at the low end, but there are other ways of looking at these races.[/quote'] Should have been clearer - 2011/12 AW Season and 2012/13 AW Season. So 2013 includes November, Decemeber and January just gone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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