Louis' Local Derbies, 122 bets, -3.9% yield

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies

QPR v Millwall Millwall don't have a bad record at Loftus Road and are sure to bring a lot of fans with them. They've drawn 2 of their last 3 league games there, losing the other. QPR's form has really dropped off recently, whereas Millwall have been on a great run of 6 games without defeat. Millwall's recent shots stats are better than QPR's by some margin, and I think they look too long here. Millwall still need points urgently. They're in better form and I think they might fight harder for the result. Millwall +0.5 1.94 188Bet Stake: 2 points

Result: QPR 1 Millwall 1 Bet won :ok Stake: 2 points Return: 3.88 points

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies

Sat 26th April 14.00 Croatia HNL1 Lokomotiv Zagreb v Dinamo Zagreb This is a city derby in Zagreb today. Dinamo have already won the league with 4 games left to play. Lokomotive are in mid-table. Lokomotiv used to be a feeder club for the much bigger Dinamo. They are still on friendly terms and share a ground. This is one of those Eastern European derbies that tend to go with historical precedent. Dinamo have won the last five 'away' at Lokomotiv. There is a danger that having just won the league, they might slacken off, but looking at last year, they also won the league with some games remaining and their results didn't seem to suffer in the later games. Looking at Dinamo's h2h record in these derbies, I think odds of 1.68 for them to win looks good value Dinamo Zagreb 1.68 MarathonBet Stake: 2 points

Result: Lokomotiv Zagreb 1 Dinamo Zagreb 1 Bet lost

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies

Sat 26th April 18.00 Serbia Partizan Belgrade v Red Star Belgrade The famous Belgrade derby. A change of bet type here - I'm backing unders. Looking back, I've noticed 15 out of the last 20 Belgrade derbies have been under 2.5 goals. So odds of 1.7 for under 2.5 look attractive - Under 2.5 1.7 Bet365 Stake: 2 points

Result: Partizan Belgrade 2 Red Star Belgrade 1 Bet lost

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies

Sun 27th April 12.45 Scottish Premier Hibs v Hearts This is the big Edinburgh derby, and I think there's value in backing Hearts at odds of over 4.0. Hearts are already relegated because they were deducted 15 points at the start of the season. Hibs have been in terrible form recently, whereas Hearts have had some good results. Hearts' recent shots on target stats are much better than Hibs. The 'relegation group' in this league are competing to avoid finishing second from bottom above Hearts. The team that finishes there faces a playoff with the winner of the Championship playoffs - meaning possible relegation. If Hibs' disastrous form continues, there's a good chance it could be them. So Hibs go into this game with more pressure on them. Hearts' odds look too long to me given their better form, shots stats and recent record in these derbies. Hearts 4.4 Marathonbet Stake: 2 points

Result: Hibs 1 Hearts 2 Bet won :ok Stake: 2 points Return: 8.8 points

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies - 84 bets, -5% yield Sun 27th April 2014 So I've done some stats on the bets so far, and worked out the yield. It's -5% after 84 bets. I'll keep the total yield in the thread title from now on. I plan to do some analysis soon (perhaps after 100 bets) to have a look at what's working and what isn't. The Story So Far (up to post #154 27-04-2014) 84 bets @ 2 points Total staked: 168 points Total returned 159.48 points 27 winning bets 57 losing bets Strike Rate = 32% Yield = ((159.48/168) - 1) x 100 = -5% Starting bank: 100 points Current bank: 91.48 points

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 84 bets, -5% yield Greuther Furth v Nurnberg Bundeliga II Monday 11th August 19.15 This is the Nurnberg derby - Furth is the smaller club on the outskirts of Nurnberg. Nurnberg are a much bigger club with bigger support and they have a good record against Furth. Furth's website says the match is a 17,200 sellout, and I expect Nurnberg fans will be there in numbers. The last 5 league games at Furth have all been draws - 0-0 1-1 2-2 0-0 1-1 I am tempted to back the draw or unders, but I know from experience that I do better backing teams than goals, so I am going to oppose Furth at decent odds - Nurnberg or Draw 1.7 Bet 365 Stake: 2 points

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 84 bets, -5% yield

Greuther Furth v Nurnberg Bundeliga II Monday 11th August 19.15 This is the Nurnberg derby - Furth is the smaller club on the outskirts of Nurnberg. Nurnberg are a much bigger club with bigger support and they have a good record against Furth. Furth's website says the match is a 17,200 sellout, and I expect Nurnberg fans will be there in numbers. The last 5 league games at Furth have all been draws - 0-0 1-1 2-2 0-0 1-1 I am tempted to back the draw or unders, but I know from experience that I do better backing teams than goals, so I am going to oppose Furth at decent odds - Nurnberg or Draw 1.7 Bet 365 Stake: 2 points

Result: Greuther Furth 5 Nurnberg 1 Bet lost Stake: 2 points Return: nil points Furth were much the better side here from what I saw

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 84 bets, -5% yield Eastleigh v Aldershot Conference Premier Thursday 14th August 19.45 This is the sort of derby I like. Eastleigh host Hampshire neighbours Aldershot tonight. Aldershot is about 1 hour away by car, and Aldershot should bring a lot of fans, making for a good local derby atmosphere. According to Aldershot's twitter account, they have won all 3 competitive games at Eastleigh. I reckon Aldershot are the bigger club and will be quite happy to show it tonight by winning this 'derby' game. Aldershot DNB 3.5 BetVictor Stake: 2 points

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 84 bets, -5% yield

Eastleigh v Aldershot Conference Premier Thursday 14th August 19.45 This is the sort of derby I like. Eastleigh host Hampshire neighbours Aldershot tonight. Aldershot is about 1 hour away by car, and Aldershot should bring a lot of fans, making for a good local derby atmosphere. According to Aldershot's twitter account, they have won all 3 competitive games at Eastleigh. I reckon Aldershot are the bigger club and will be quite happy to show it tonight by winning this 'derby' game. Aldershot DNB 3.5 BetVictor Stake: 2 points

Result: Eastleigh 1 Aldershot 0 Bet lost Stake: 2 points Return: nil A poor game from what I saw, with both sides looking as though they were more interested in to losing than winning and chances at a premium. Aldershot seemed to have slightly the better of the chances that there were, but Eastleigh got a last minute winner.

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 84 bets, -5% yield Austria Austria Vienna v Rapid Vienna Sunday 24th August 2014 15.30 Austria v Rapid last 10 league results: 0-1 0-1 2-2 2-0 0-0 1-1 0-1 0-1 1-0 1-1 Rapid are the bigger club and tend to do well at local rivals Austria. I am happy to back them at over 2.3 on the 2-way market: Rapid Vienna AH0 2.32 Marathon/Pinnacle Stake: 2 points

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 84 bets, -5% yield

Austria Austria Vienna v Rapid Vienna Sunday 24th August 2014 15.30 Austria v Rapid last 10 league results: 0-1 0-1 2-2 2-0 0-0 1-1 0-1 0-1 1-0 1-1 Rapid are the bigger club and tend to do well at local rivals Austria. I am happy to back them at over 2.3 on the 2-way market: Rapid Vienna AH0 2.32 Marathon/Pinnacle Stake: 2 points

Result: Austria 2 Rapid 2 Bet void Stake: 2 points Return: 2 points

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 84 bets, -5% yield RNK Split v Hajduk Split Sat 20th Sept 18.00 I am trying to focus more on lower league UK derbies, as in general I have found it a bit easier to find value there. Now and then though, I see a foreign derby that looks attractive. Here, Hajduk are one of the largest clubs in Croatia, current average crowd around 11,000. RNK are one of the smallest, average crowd around 1,000. Hajduk have a good record at RNK, they've won 4 of their last 5 games there. I've noticed the bigger club often wins against the smaller one in Eastern Europe, and I'm happy to back Hajduk here at long looking odds. Hajduk Split 2.87 Bet 365 Stake: 2 points

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 84 bets, -5% yield

RNK Split v Hajduk Split Sat 20th Sept 18.00 I am trying to focus more on lower league UK derbies, as in general I have found it a bit easier to find value there. Now and then though, I see a foreign derby that looks attractive. Here, Hajduk are one of the largest clubs in Croatia, current average crowd around 11,000. RNK are one of the smallest, average crowd around 1,000. Hajduk have a good record at RNK, they've won 4 of their last 5 games there. I've noticed the bigger club often wins against the smaller one in Eastern Europe, and I'm happy to back Hajduk here at long looking odds. Hajduk Split 2.87 Bet 365 Stake: 2 points

Result: RNK Split 1 Hajduk Split 1 Bet lost Stake: 2 points Return: nil From what I saw, Hajduk were slightly the better side overall but neither side really convinced.

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 84 bets, -5% yield FA Cup Portsmouth v Aldershot Sunday 9th Nov 14.00 This is almost a derby, the two club are well connected by road and rail, less than 1 hour's distance. Portsmouth are very well supported, but Aldershot will also have around 2,500 fans there according to their local news site. Aldershot from the Conference are one level below Portsmouth, and bearing in mind the derby nature of the game, I think odds of over 6.0 look a bit high. According to Portsmouth's website, Aldershot have won 2 and drawn 1 of their 6 games at Portsmouth over the years (although none of these were recent games). Aldershot AH0 4.35 Marathon Stake: 2 points

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 84 bets, -5% yield Rapid Vienna v Austria Vienna Sun 9th Nov 13.30 Austria have won two and drawn two of their last five games at Rapid. I think the odds on Austria are worth taking here. Austria Vienna AH0 2.66 Marathon Stake: 2 points

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 84 bets, -5% yield

FA Cup Portsmouth v Aldershot Sunday 9th Nov 14.00 This is almost a derby, the two club are well connected by road and rail, less than 1 hour's distance. Portsmouth are very well supported, but Aldershot will also have around 2,500 fans there according to their local news site. Aldershot from the Conference are one level below Portsmouth, and bearing in mind the derby nature of the game, I think odds of over 6.0 look a bit high. According to Portsmouth's website, Aldershot have won 2 and drawn 1 of their 6 games at Portsmouth over the years (although none of these were recent games). Aldershot AH0 4.35 Marathon Stake: 2 points

Result: 2-2 Bet void Stake: 2 points Return: 2 points

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 84 bets, -5% yield

Rapid Vienna v Austria Vienna Sun 9th Nov 13.30 Austria have won two and drawn two of their last five games at Rapid. I think the odds on Austria are worth taking here. Austria Vienna AH0 2.66 Marathon Stake: 2 points

Result: Rapid 2 Austria 3 Bet won :ok Stake: 2 points Return: 5.32 points

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 84 bets, -5% yield St Etienne v Lyon Sun 30th Nov 20.00 I'm trying to focus mainly on UK derbies, but sometimes European ones seem to be worth backing. I think I've backed Lyon on this thread before, and they've still got the same superb record at St Etienne - at the moment, they've won their last five games there. They are also the bigger club, and in better form. And St Etienne played in Europe last week (which can sometimes affect results the following weekend). It all seems too easy, but I just have to back Lyon at a long looking price - Lyon AH0 2.8 Marathon Stake: 2 points

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 84 bets, -5% yield

St Etienne v Lyon Sun 30th Nov 20.00 I'm trying to focus mainly on UK derbies, but sometimes European ones seem to be worth backing. I think I've backed Lyon on this thread before, and they've still got the same superb record at St Etienne - at the moment, they've won their last five games there. They are also the bigger club, and in better form. And St Etienne played in Europe last week (which can sometimes affect results the following weekend). It all seems too easy, but I just have to back Lyon at a long looking price - Lyon AH0 2.8 Marathon Stake: 2 points

Result: St Etienne 3 Lyon 0 Bet lost Stake: 2 points Return: nil

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 84 bets, -5% yield West Brom v Aston Villa Sat 13th Dec 3pm Both managers are under some pressure, but Villa have improved recently. Villa are the bigger club and in better form. Last 5 games h2h at West Brom - 2-2 2-2 0-0 2-1 1-2 I would make both clubs about the same price here, so I think Villa are good value at nearly 4.0. Aston Villa +0.5 1.81 188Bet Stake: 2 points

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 84 bets, -5% yield

West Brom v Aston Villa Sat 13th Dec 3pm Both managers are under some pressure, but Villa have improved recently. Villa are the bigger club and in better form. Last 5 games h2h at West Brom - 2-2 2-2 0-0 2-1 1-2 I would make both clubs about the same price here, so I think Villa are good value at nearly 4.0. Aston Villa +0.5 1.81 188Bet Stake: 2 points

Result: West Brom 1 Aston Villa 0 Bet lost Stake: 2 points Return: nil

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 84 bets, -5% yield Maidstone v Tonbridge I like Tonbridge's price here. It's a Kent derby, and the local kentonline news site says the match is a 2,226 sell-out. Tonbridge have won two and drawn one of their last four games at Maidstone. Looking at Tonbridge's record in this derby and the general levelling factor of derby games, I think Tonbridge should be backed at current odds of over 6.0. Tonbridge or Draw 2.75 Bet365 Stake: 2 points

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 84 bets, -5% yield

Maidstone v Tonbridge I like Tonbridge's price here. It's a Kent derby, and the local kentonline news site says the match is a 2,226 sell-out. Tonbridge have won two and drawn one of their last four games at Maidstone. Looking at Tonbridge's record in this derby and the general levelling factor of derby games, I think Tonbridge should be backed at current odds of over 6.0. Tonbridge or Draw 2.75 Bet365 Stake: 2 points

Result: Maidstone 1 Tonbridge 1 Bet won :ok Stake: 2 points Return: 5.5 points

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 84 bets, -5% yield Southern League Premier Slough v Burnham Tues 20th Jan 19.45 I like Burnham's odds of 8.5 here. Although Burnham are currently near the bottom of the table and Slough mid-table, this is a local derby and Burnham have a very good record at Slough, having won three and drawn one of their last five games there. The odds are too high I think, and are worth taking. Burnham DNB 7.0 Bet365 Stake: 2 points

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 84 bets, -5% yield

Southern League Premier Slough v Burnham Tues 20th Jan 19.45 I like Burnham's odds of 8.5 here. Although Burnham are currently near the bottom of the table and Slough mid-table, this is a local derby and Burnham have a very good record at Slough, having won three and drawn one of their last five games there. The odds are too high I think, and are worth taking. Burnham DNB 7.0 Bet365 Stake: 2 points

Result: Slough 2 Burnham 2 Bet void Stake: 2 points Return: 2 points Profit/loss = nil

[harry_rag]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 84 bets, -5% yield Very unlucky, Slough equalised with the last touch virtually I believe. Great spot though. In attempting to back Burnham >0.5 for a small interest I mistakenly backed Slough

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 84 bets, -5% yield Championship Norwich v Ipswich Sunday 1st March 14.05 The big East Anglia regional derby, which is always keenly contested. Ipswich look good value to me at current odds of 4.5. I think those odds should be a bit lower. Ipswich have won 1 and drawn 2 of their last 5 league games at Norwich. The clubs' recents shots on target stats are similar. I think it's worth backing the away side here. Ipswich AH0 3.4 Marathon Stake: 2 points

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 84 bets, -5% yield Dortmund v Schalke Sat 28th Feb 14.30 This is called the Revierderby, between two of the biggest German clubs in the Ruhr area. It has its' own wiki page .. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revierderby Schalke have a good record at Dortmund. Last 10 league derbies at Dortmund: Home win - 2 Draw - 3 Away win - 5 Considering also that Schalke are above Dortmund in the league, and Dortmund played at Juventus this week in the Champions League, I think Schalke's odds look too long at 8.0 Schalke AH0 5.6 Marathon Stake: 2 points

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 84 bets, -5% yield

Championship Norwich v Ipswich Sunday 1st March 14.05 The big East Anglia regional derby, which is always keenly contested. Ipswich look good value to me at current odds of 4.5. I think those odds should be a bit lower. Ipswich have won 1 and drawn 2 of their last 5 league games at Norwich. The clubs' recents shots on target stats are similar. I think it's worth backing the away side here. Ipswich AH0 3.4 Marathon Stake: 2 points

Result: Norwich 2 Ipswich 0 Bet lost Stake: 2 points Return: nil

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 84 bets, -5% yield

Dortmund v Schalke Sat 28th Feb 14.30 This is called the Revierderby, between two of the biggest German clubs in the Ruhr area. It has its' own wiki page .. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revierderby Schalke have a good record at Dortmund. Last 10 league derbies at Dortmund: Home win - 2 Draw - 3 Away win - 5 Considering also that Schalke are above Dortmund in the league, and Dortmund played at Juventus this week in the Champions League, I think Schalke's odds look too long at 8.0 Schalke AH0 5.6 Marathon Stake: 2 points

Result: Dortmund 6 Schalke 0 Bet lost Stake: 2 points Return: nil