Louis' Local Derbies, 122 bets, -3.9% yield

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Result Cheltenham 1 Hereford 1 A draw was a fair result from what I saw. If anything, Hereford had the better chances, but Cheltenham had more possession. Bet lost Return: 0 points

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies I've just found out how to edit the thread title (you have to click 'Go Advanced' when you edit the first post in a thread that you started). I'll be adding performance stats to the title after the first 50 bets (I think 50 is a reasonable size to start measuring performance). In the meantime, I'll summarise in the thread after every 10 or so bets ...

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Summary of Bets 11-20 6 bets won, 4 bets lost All bets were 2 points Winning bets: Chorley v FC United of Manchester FC United 2.4 BetVictor Return: 4.8 points Spartak Moscow v Dinamo Moscow Dinamo 4.0 Paddy Power Return: 8 points Admira v Rapid Vienna Rapid 2.4 William Hill Return: 4.8 points Huddersfield v Leeds Leeds 3.04 Pinnacle Return: 6.08 points Fulham v Spurs Tottenham 2.53 Pinnacle Return: 5.06 points Panionios v Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 2.38 William Hill Return: 4.76 points At 2 points per bet, we've staked 10 x 2 = 20 points And we've returned the following from winning bets: 4.8 8 4.8 6.08 5.06 4.76 ===== 33.5 Summary bets 1-20 ============= Starting bank: 100 Current bank: 108.32 Total staked: 40 Number of bets: 20 @ 2 points Winning bets: 8 Losing bets: 12 Strike rate: 40% Total staked: 40 points Total return: 48.32 points Profit (or Loss) = +8.32 points Yield: +8.32/40 = +20.8% Results are calculated like this : Strike rate = Winning bets / Total bets ( written as a percentage ) Yield = Profit (or Loss) / Total staked ( written as a percentage )

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Just two games for this weekend, both on Sunday - Scottish Premier League Dundee v Dundee Utd Sunday 9th December 12.45 The Dundee derby on Sunday. In recent decades Dundee United have been the more successful club. This season, Dundee were promoted to the Scottish Premier League to replace the demoted Rangers. Their form has improved in the last few games after a terrible start. They are currently bottom and United are 9 points ahead in 7th place. Although they haven't played each other recently, Dundee's head to head record against United is good. This combined with Dundee's recent improvement makes me think that odds of over 5.0 on Dundee are worth taking. For a change, I'm backing the home team here - Dundee 5.07 Pinnacle Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points) France Ligue 1 St Etienne v Lyon Sunday 9th December 20.00 Top of the table derby between 3rd-placed St Etienne and leaders Lyon. St Etienne are strong at home, but Lyon have a good record at St Etienne's ground, having won 4 and drawn 1 of their last 5 league visits there. I think Lyon are too long here at 3.76 Lyon 3.76 Pinnacle Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points)

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Results Dundee 0 Dundee Utd 3 Bet lost I saw a bit of the game. After a good start by Dundee, Dundee United stepped it up and dominated the game. There seemed to be a gap in class. Return: 0 points St Etienne 0 Lyon 1 Bet won I saw some of the game. It was a tight very competitive match, with each side having a man sent off. I though Lyon deserved the win as they had a bit more penetration in attack. Return: 7.52 points

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Derbies/near-derbies this weekend Friday 14th December to Sunday 16th December Another interesting selection of games this weekend. Eight matches I'm looking at, selections to follow. Sat 15th Dec Australia Sydney v Western Sydney New Sydney derby involving the new Western Sydney club. Sydney the bigger club I think. Premiership QPR v Fulham West London derby. Both clubs similar size. Premiership Stoke v Everton Near-derby. Everton less than 1 hour away on the motorway. Everton the bigger club. Championship Barnsley v Sheff Weds Yorkshire derby League 2 Exeter v Plymouth Devon derby. Plymouth the bigger club Austria Wiener Neustadt v Rapid Wien Vienna area derby - Neustadt just outside Vienna. Rapid the bigger club. Greece Panionios v Olympiakos Piraeus Athens derby. Olympiakos the bigger club. Sun 16th Dec Turkey Galatasaray v Fenerbahce Istanbul derby. Both clubs around the same size I believe.

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Three recommendations for this weekend. Two from England and one from Turkey Championship Barnsley v Sheffield Wednesday Saturday 15th December 17.20 Yorkshire derby H2H record at this ground last 5 league games 1/2/2 Latest win odds 2.6 3.0 Both sides are struggling near the foot of the table and haven't won for ages. Wednesday are easier the bigger club and have a good record at Barnsley's ground, so I think odds of 3.0 are worth taking. Sheffield Wednesday 3.0 BetVictor Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points) League 2 Exeter v Plymouth Saturday 15th December 12.00 Devon derby. Plymouth the bigger club H2H record at this ground last 5 league games 1/2/2 Latest win odds 2.1 3.75 Exeter are doing better than their larger neighbours this season, but their home record is noticeably poorer than their away record and Plymouth have a good record at Exeter, so I think Plymouth are worth backing at 3.75. Plymouth 3.75 Ladbrokes Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points) Turkey Galatasaray v Fenerbahce Sunday 16th December 18.00 Istanbul derby. Both clubs around the same size I believe. H2H record at this ground last 5 league games 1/1/3 Latest win odds 2.0 3.85 Top of the table clash between these two big Istanbul rivals. As far as I kniow, both clubs are similar in size, and Fenerbahce have a good record at Galatasary's ground, so I think they are good value at 3.85 Fenerbahce 3.85 Pinnacle Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points) Stats source: soccerway

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Results Barnsley 0 Sheffield Wednesday 1 Bet won Return: 6 points Exeter 1 Plymouth 1 Bet lost Return: 0 points Galatasaray 2 Fenerbahce 1 Bet lost I saw some of the game, and I thought Galatasary probably deserved to win. They appeared to control most of the game. Return: 0 points

[pg_yid]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Have you looked at the Osaka derby on Sunday? It looks quite interesting. Gamba Osaka are relegated (J-League season is over) and they play Cerezo Osaska in the Emperor's Cup. I was researching the game for a bet, the head to head shows a lot of goals in past encounters.

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies

Have you looked at the Osaka derby on Sunday? It looks quite interesting. Gamba Osaka are relegated (J-League season is over) and they play Cerezo Osaska in the Emperor's Cup. I was researching the game for a bet' date=' the head to head shows a lot of goals in past encounters.[/quote'] Thanks for the suggestion. I am trying to stick to European games, as I find them a bit easier to judge. Also, I prefer to back teams than goals. From a quick glance, I couldn't see any clear value on the game. If Gamba were the bigger club and had won 4 out of the last 5 games at Cerezo, I might be interested in backing them, but it's not the case ... http://uk.soccerway.com/matches/2012/12/23/japan/emperor-cup/cerezo-osaka/gamba-osaka/1421689/head2head/

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Friday 21st December to Sunday 23rd December No recommendations for this weekend

[playeru]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Hey, I'm a follower of your thread since when you started. Here's an idea: Turkish team playing in Germany in European cups. In terms of spectators will this be a derby? There will be a lot of Turks in attendance.

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies

Hey' date=' I'm a follower of your thread since when you started. Here's an idea: Turkish team playing in Germany in European cups. In terms of spectators will this be a derby? There will be a lot of Turks in attendance.[/quote'] Hi playeru, Thanks for the comment. I know what you mean about Turkish fans. They seem to make a great atmosphere when their team is playing away. I think Turkish sides generally do poorly away from home in Europe though, don't they? I think I would want to see evidence of some good away form in Europe before considering backing a Turkish side away. Please feel free to post up any match suggestions in future, and I will have a look.

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Wednesday 26th December Two tips for Wednesday 26th (Boxing Day). If odds on Southend improve (as I expect), I'll re-post the improved odds. Championship Forest v Leeds Wednesday 26th December 12.15 Not a derby, but Leeds is about 1 hour 20 minutes by motorway, and Leeds will bring a lot of fans to this game. Leeds are the bigger club and haven't lost in their last 5 league games at Forest. Leeds are also in better form, and I think they are good value at 3.38. Leeds 3.38 Betfair Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points) League 2 Dagenham v Southend Wednesday 26th December 13.00 Essex derby. Southend are the bigger club and have won their last 2 games at Dagenham. Both sides are in similar form. I think perhaps Southend should be favourites, so they are slight value at the longer odds. Southend 2.75 (NB: don't bet yet - see below) Boylesports Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points) (I am writing this a few days before Christmas, and I am putting up these early odds here, but odds on this game may improve between now and Wednesday 26th - if they do, I will post the improved odds in a separate post below. If you want to back Southend, I suggest waiting until 25th or early on 26th to see if the odds have improved). If I post improved odds before the game, I will base my records on the improved odds - I think that's fair.

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Friday 14th December to Sunday 16th December I've changed my mind and found one recommendation for this weekend. League Two Torquay v Exeter Saturday 23rd December 15.00 Devon derby, Exeter the bigger club. Head to head last 5 games at Torquay, Torquay won 3, Exeter won 2. I think Exeter should be favourites tomorrow because they are in better form than Torquay, and have been performing better (in terms of shots on target). I think they are reasonable value at odds of 3.0 Exeter 3.0 BlueSq Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points)

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Here's another game for Wednesday 26th ... Blue Square Conference Hereford v Kidderminster Wednesday 26th December 13.00 These clubs are just over 1 hour apart, and currently get similar sized crowds. Kidderminster are in better form, and have been have been performing a lot better in terms of shots on target. I think they are reasonable value at 2.5. Kidderminster 2.5 (NB: don't bet yet - see below) Coral Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points) (I am writing this a few days before Christmas, and I am putting up these early odds here, but odds on this game should improve between now and Wednesday 26th - if they do, I will post the improved odds in a separate post below. If you want to back Southend, I suggest waiting until 25th or early on 26th to see if the odds have improved).

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies

Friday 14th December to Sunday 16th December I've changed my mind and found one recommendation for this weekend. League Two Torquay v Exeter Saturday 23rd December 15.00 Devon derby, Exeter the bigger club. Head to head last 5 games at Torquay, Torquay won 3, Exeter won 2. I think Exeter should be favourites tomorrow because they are in better form than Torquay, and have been performing better (in terms of shots on target). I think they are reasonable value at odds of 3.0 Exeter 3.0 BlueSq Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points)

VOID Match postponed (weather conditions)

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Wednesday 26th December AM I've just checked the latest prices on Southend and Kidderminster. The best price on Southend has shortened from 2.75 to 2.6 and the best price on Kidderminster has lengthened from 2.5 to 2.56. Overall the odds have got worse instead of better, so I'm going to leave the original recommendations. (In future, I'll try not to put odds up with "Don't bet yet" because it just confuses things. I did it this time because of the Christmas break).

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Results Forest 4 Leeds 2 Bet lost Return: 0 points Dagenham 0 Southend 3 Bet won Return: 5.2 points ** ** I originally tipped Southend when the best odds were 2.75, but I suggested "waiting until 25th or early on 26th to see if the odds have improved". Early on 26th the odds were worse instead of better - best odds were 2.6. As I advised waiting, I think it's fair to base the win on the later, lower odds of 2.6 Hereford 0 Kidderminster 1 Bet won Return: 5.0 points

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Friday 28th December to Sunday 30th December One recommendation for this weekend Blue Square South Tonbridge v Bromley Saturday 29th December 15.00 These two clubs are around 20 miles apart. Bromley is perhaps the slightly larger club. Tonbridge are several places above Bromley in the table, but recent form has been similar. Bromley have a good record at Tonbridge, having won 2 and drawn 1 of their last 3 matches there in all competitions. I think odds of nearly 5.0 are too long and worth taking - Bromley 4.75 Bet 365 Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points)

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Results Tonbridge 0 Bromley 3 Bet won Return: 9.5 points

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies One game for New Years Day ... Blue Square Conference Alfreton v Mansfield Tuesday Jan 1st 2013 13.00 Mansfield is just under 10 miles from Alferton and easily the bigger club. Both clubs are in similar form. Alfreton won 2-1 at Mansfield on Boxing Day, but results are often reversed in the return fixture in this sort of derby. Mansfield have won their last 2 games at Alfreton. I think they are reasonable value at 2.63 Mansfield 2.63 Bet 365 Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points)

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Results Alfreton 0 Mansfield 3 Bet won Return: 5.26 points

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Summary of Bets 21-30 As far as I can see, these are the results of Bets 21-30. When I get to 50 bets, I'll try and publish a spreadsheet (possibly in the first post of the thread for simplicity). 6 bets won 4 bets lost All bets were 2 points Details of the six winning bets: St Etienne 0 Lyon 1 Bet won Return: 7.52 points Barnsley 0 Sheffield Wednesday 1 Bet won Return: 6 points Dagenham 0 Southend 3 Bet won Return: 5.2 points Hereford 0 Kidderminster 1 Bet won Return: 5.0 points Tonbridge 0 Bromley 3 Bet won Return: 9.5 points Alfreton 0 Mansfield 3 Bet won Return: 5.26 points Staked 10 bets @ 2 points/bet = 20 points Returns from 6 winning bets = 38.48 points, detailed here: 7.52 6 5.2 5 9.5 5.26 ==== 38.48 /////////////////////////////////////////////////// Summary bets 1-30 ============= Starting bank: 100 Current bank: 126.8 Total staked: 60 Number of bets: 30 @ 2 points Winning bets: 14 Losing bets: 16 Strike rate: 46.7% Total staked: 60 points Total return: 86.8 points Profit (or Loss) = +26.8 points Yield: +26.8/60 = +44.7% Results are calculated like this : Strike rate = Winning bets / Total bets ( written as a percentage ) Yield = Profit (or Loss) / Total staked ( written as a percentage )

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Two recommendations for this weekend from England - Championship Nottingham Forest v Peterborough Saturday 12th Jan 2013 15.00 Not a strict derby, but Peterborough isn't that far away - less than 1 hour and a half by road or train. Forest are easily the bigger club. Peterborough will take around 1,500 fans - a good away following considering their home games average 7,500. Peterborough have won 2 or their last 5 games at Forest, a decent record. Peterborough are in better form. Forest have yet to win under new manager Alex McLeish. I think Peterborough are fairly good value at odds of nearly 5.0 Peterborough 4.78 Pinnacle Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points) FA Trophy Dartford v Bromley Saturday 12th Jan 2013 15.00 Conference Dartford play Conference South Bromley in this cup competition. Dartford is the bigger club. Bromley is a miles away. Bromley have lost one, drawn one and won one on their last three trips to Dartford. Dartford are higher in their league, but Bromley are in better form. I think Bromley's odds look too high here at 6.5 Bromley 6.51 Pinnacle Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points)

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Results: Nottingham Forest 2 Peterborough 1 A deserved win for Forest according to the BBC report Bet lost Return: 0 points Dartford 4 Bromley 2 More even than the scoreline suggests according to a report I read Bet lost Return: 0 points

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies One re-arranged game for tonight ... League Two Torquay v Exeter Tuesday 15th January 20.00 Devon derby, Exeter the bigger club. Head to head last 5 games at Torquay, Torquay won 3, Exeter won 2. I tipped this game when it was originally scheduled on 23rd December (it was postponed because of bad weather). Since then, Exeter have been in much better form than their neighbours. Although the odds have gone down from 3.0 to 2.75, I think they are still good value ... Exeter 2.76 Pinnacle Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points)

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Result: Torquay 1 Exeter 1 Exeter had the better of the game from the stats I saw Bet lost Return: 0 points

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Friday 18th Jan to Sunday 20th Jan Four games for this weekend, one on Friday, two on Saturday and one on Sunday. Fri 18th Jan Turkish Super League Kasımpaşa v Galatasaray Friday 18th Jan 18.00 Galatasaray are playing at Istanbul neighbours Kasimpasa. Galatasaray are a much bigger club and have won their last three games at Kasimpasa. Galatasaray are below evens for this game, which is quite short odds for an away win, but bearing in mind their record at Kasimpasa I think the odds are worth taking. Galatasaray 1.76 Pinnacle Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points) Sat 19th Jan Premier League West Brom v Aston Villa Saturday 19th Jan 17.30 A big Midlands derby. Aston Villa are the bigger club. They have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 league games at West Brom. Villa are struggling badly in the league and their manager is under pressure. West Brom had a good start to the season, but have tailed off recently and seem to be struggling at the moment. I think Villa's odds are too long here at 5.5 taking into account their good record at West Brom. Aston Villa 5.5 Pinnacle Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points) League One Notts County v Sheffield Utd Saturday 19th Jan 15.00 Nottingham is around 1 hour from Sheffield on the motorway. Not strictly a derby but Sheffield United normally take a lot of fans to this sort of away game. Bpth these sides have been struggling in League One recently after good starts to the season. Sheffield United are the bigger club and have won 2 of their last 3 games at County. I think Sheffield Utd are reasonable value at 2.8 Sheffield Utd 2.8 Bet 365 Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points) Sun 20th Jan Belgium Jupiter League Cercle Brugge v Club Brugge Sunday 20th Jan 13.30 Club Brugge play 'away' at their smaller neighbours. Both teams share the same ground in Bruges, and Club Brugge have won 4 out of the last 5 'away' games. Club Brugge are in much better form. Although odds of under 1.8 are quite low for an away win, Club Brugge's excellent record at Cercle makes me think they still offer some value. Club Brugge 1.73 Pinnacle Stake: 2 points (from starting bank of 100 points) source for stats: soccerway

[MPLouis]

Re: Louis' Local Derbies Results Kasımpaşa 2 Galatasaray 1 From what I saw, Kasimpasa deserved to win. Bet lost Return: 0 points West Brom 2 Aston Villa 2 From what I heard, a draw was probably a fair result. Bet lost Return: 0 points Notts County 1 Sheffield Utd 1 Bet lost Return: 0 points Cercle Brugge v Club Brugge Postponed due to bad weather