MPLouis Posted March 6, 2015 Author Share Posted March 6, 2015 Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 84 bets, -5% yield Wrexham v Chester Sat 7th March 13.00 The so-called 'cross-border derby' between Welsh Wrexham and English Chester. Chester have won two and drawn one of the last three meettings, home and away. Chester are in better form overall and have much better recent shots on target stats. Wrexham also have the distraction of being in the FA Trophy. Chester's odds have shortened quite a bit, but I still think they could be good value at 3.0 - Chester 3.0 Bet365 Stake: 2 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted March 7, 2015 Author Share Posted March 7, 2015 Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 84 bets, -5% yield Wrexham v Chester Sat 7th March 13.00 The so-called 'cross-border derby' between Welsh Wrexham and English Chester. Chester have won two and drawn one of the last three meettings, home and away. Chester are in better form overall and have much better recent shots on target stats. Wrexham also have the distraction of being in the FA Trophy. Chester's odds have shortened quite a bit, but I still think they could be good value at 3.0 - Chester 3.0 Bet365 Stake: 2 points Result: Wrexham 1 Chester 0 Bet lost Stake: 2 points Return: nil Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted March 7, 2015 Author Share Posted March 7, 2015 Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 84 bets, -5% yield I think that's 97 bets so far. When I get to 100, I plan to update the performance figures, and at the same time do some analysis of what worked and what didn't so far :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted March 11, 2015 Author Share Posted March 11, 2015 Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 84 bets, -5% yield Championship Blackburn v Bolton Weds 11th March 19.45 Blackburn is within easy reach of Bolton, around 45 minutes journey by car. Bolton are probably the bigger club at the moment, and have a good recent record against Blackburn. Bolton's recent shots on target stats are a bit better than Blackburn's. I think Bolton's odds should be a bit shorter for this game, so am prepared to risk a bet on them - Bolton AH0 3.05 Marathon Stake: 2 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted March 11, 2015 Author Share Posted March 11, 2015 Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 84 bets, -5% yield Championship Blackburn v Bolton Weds 11th March 19.45 Blackburn is within easy reach of Bolton, around 45 minutes journey by car. Bolton are probably the bigger club at the moment, and have a good recent record against Blackburn. Bolton's recent shots on target stats are a bit better than Blackburn's. I think Bolton's odds should be a bit shorter for this game, so am prepared to risk a bet on them - Bolton AH0 3.05 Marathon Stake: 2 points Result: Blackburn 1 Bolton 0 Bet lost Stake: 2 points Return: nil Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted March 12, 2015 Author Share Posted March 12, 2015 Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 84 bets, -5% yield League Two Newport v Cheltenham Friday 13th March 19.45 Not a real 'derby' but … these clubs are close enough to give it a little local flavour. According to Cheltenham fans' forum, around 200 Cheltenham fans will travel to the game (just over 1 hour travelling) - not bad for a club which has crowds of around 3,000. It's Cheltenham's shortest away trip after Oxford. I have found from experience it can pay to back the away club at long odds in a 'near-derby' game like this. Cheltenham's results have picked up a bit since manager Paul Buckle left on 13th February. They are just above the relegation zone. Newport have struggled recently at the other end of the table and are 2 points below the playoffs. Both clubs' recent shots on target stats are similar. Since Newport won promotion back to the Football League, the three meetings between the clubs have been one draw and two away wins. I think Cheltenham are decent value here, and this time I will back them on the handicap - Cheltenham +0.5 1.81 188Bet Stake: 2 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted March 12, 2015 Author Share Posted March 12, 2015 Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 84 bets, -5% yield (I think is bet no 100 on this thread ... ) Ireland First Division Wexford v Waterford Friday 13th March 19.45 Last season, Wexford finished 4th, just outside the playoff placed. Waterford finished 7th, 21 points below Wexford. Both are small clubs, Waterford currently get larger crowds. Last season, Waterford averaged 475 and Wexford 341. The clubs are just under 1 hour apart by road. This game is called the 'South East derby' in Ireland. Waterford have a good record at Wexford over the years, they've won 5 of the last 10 league games there. As it's a derby and give Waterford's good record at their neighbours' their odds look too long to me at over 7.0. Waterford AH0 5.3 Marathon Stake: 2 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted March 13, 2015 Author Share Posted March 13, 2015 Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 84 bets, -5% yield League Two Newport v Cheltenham Friday 13th March 19.45 Not a real 'derby' but … these clubs are close enough to give it a little local flavour. According to Cheltenham fans' forum, around 200 Cheltenham fans will travel to the game (just over 1 hour travelling) - not bad for a club which has crowds of around 3,000. It's Cheltenham's shortest away trip after Oxford. I have found from experience it can pay to back the away club at long odds in a 'near-derby' game like this. Cheltenham's results have picked up a bit since manager Paul Buckle left on 13th February. They are just above the relegation zone. Newport have struggled recently at the other end of the table and are 2 points below the playoffs. Both clubs' recent shots on target stats are similar. Since Newport won promotion back to the Football League, the three meetings between the clubs have been one draw and two away wins. I think Cheltenham are decent value here, and this time I will back them on the handicap - Cheltenham +0.5 1.81 188Bet Stake: 2 points Result: Newport 1 Cheltenham 1 Bet won :ok Stake: 2 points Return: 3.62 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted March 13, 2015 Author Share Posted March 13, 2015 Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 84 bets, -5% yield (I think is bet no 100 on this thread ... ) Ireland First Division Wexford v Waterford Friday 13th March 19.45 Last season, Wexford finished 4th, just outside the playoff placed. Waterford finished 7th, 21 points below Wexford. Both are small clubs, Waterford currently get larger crowds. Last season, Waterford averaged 475 and Wexford 341. The clubs are just under 1 hour apart by road. This game is called the 'South East derby' in Ireland. Waterford have a good record at Wexford over the years, they've won 5 of the last 10 league games there. As it's a derby and give Waterford's good record at their neighbours' their odds look too long to me at over 7.0. Waterford AH0 5.3 Marathon Stake: 2 points Result: Wexford 1 Waterford 2 Bet won :ok Stake: 2 points Return: 10.6 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted March 27, 2015 Author Share Posted March 27, 2015 Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 84 bets, -5% yield Ireland Premier Shamrock Rovers v Bohemians Friday 27th March 20.00 Bohs have a good recent record at Shamrock Rovers in the biggest football derby in Ireland, only losing one in their last five. I like the odds for them to get something tonight Bohemians AH0 3.8 Marathon Stake: 2 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted April 3, 2015 Author Share Posted April 3, 2015 Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 84 bets, -5% yield Ireland Premier Shamrock Rovers v Bohemians Friday 27th March 20.00 Bohs have a good recent record at Shamrock Rovers in the biggest football derby in Ireland, only losing one in their last five. I like the odds for them to get something tonight Bohemians AH0 3.8 Marathon Stake: 2 points Result: Shamrock Rovers 0 Bohemians 0 Bet void Stake: 2 points Return: 2 points Bohemians were probably a bit lucky here, as reports say it was mainly one-way traffic ... http://www.irishtimes.com/sport/soccer/national-league/bohs-dean-delany-pulls-out-all-the-stops-to-deny-shamrock-rovers-1.2156671 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted April 3, 2015 Author Share Posted April 3, 2015 Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 84 bets, -5% yield League Two Wycombe v Oxford Friday 3rd April 15.00 This is the kind of derby I like. A promotion contender (Wycombe) at home to a bottom half side (Oxford), with the away side priced at long odds. Oxford are the bigger club and will be taking around 1,600 fans to the game according to their website. Oxford have a good record at Wycombe. Last 5 league results h2h at Wycombe (newest first): 0-1 1-3 0-0 2-1 1-1 Neither side is really under much pressure at the moment. Wycombe are 7 points clear in the top 3 so well placed for automatic promotion. Oxford are 8 points clear of the relegation zone. I see this is as a hard-fought local derby, and I think Oxford's odds are currently too long and worth taking. I'm going for the mid-priced Asian Handicap market here: Oxford +0.5 1.9 Bet365 Stake: 2 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted April 3, 2015 Author Share Posted April 3, 2015 Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 84 bets, -5% yield League Two Wycombe v Oxford Friday 3rd April 15.00 This is the kind of derby I like. A promotion contender (Wycombe) at home to a bottom half side (Oxford), with the away side priced at long odds. Oxford are the bigger club and will be taking around 1,600 fans to the game according to their website. Oxford have a good record at Wycombe. Last 5 league results h2h at Wycombe (newest first): 0-1 1-3 0-0 2-1 1-1 Neither side is really under much pressure at the moment. Wycombe are 7 points clear in the top 3 so well placed for automatic promotion. Oxford are 8 points clear of the relegation zone. I see this is as a hard-fought local derby, and I think Oxford's odds are currently too long and worth taking. I'm going for the mid-priced Asian Handicap market here: Oxford +0.5 1.9 Bet365 Stake: 2 points Result: Wycombe 2 Oxford 3 Bet won :ok Stake: 2 points Return: 3.8 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted April 3, 2015 Author Share Posted April 3, 2015 Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 84 bets, -5% yield Sat 4th April 12.15 Dynamo Moscow - Lokomotiv Moscow A minor Moscow derby (the main one is between the two biggest Moscow clubs, CSKA v Spartak). Lokomotiv don't have a great recent record at Dynamo, but I've noticed that Moscow derbies often produce surprise results for the longer priced side (usually the away side). Both sides are valued similarly according to transfermarkt, with a number of high-value foreigners on each side. Both teams are in similar form this season, and I think Lokomotiv are worth backing here at much longer odds of nearly 5.0. Asian Handicap odds look fairly attractive at the moment - Lokomotiv Moscow AH0 3.58 Marathon Stake: 2 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted April 4, 2015 Author Share Posted April 4, 2015 Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 84 bets, -5% yield Sat 4th April 15.00 Sheffield Wednesday v Huddersfield A yorkshire derby where Huddersfield have a good recent record, having won three and drawn one of their last five games h2h at Wednesday's Hillsborough ground. I think they are decent value to get something today. Huddersfield +0.5 1.77 188Bet Stake: 2 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted April 4, 2015 Author Share Posted April 4, 2015 Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 84 bets, -5% yield Sat 4th April 12.15 Dynamo Moscow - Lokomotiv Moscow A minor Moscow derby (the main one is between the two biggest Moscow clubs, CSKA v Spartak). Lokomotiv don't have a great recent record at Dynamo, but I've noticed that Moscow derbies often produce surprise results for the longer priced side (usually the away side). Both sides are valued similarly according to transfermarkt, with a number of high-value foreigners on each side. Both teams are in similar form this season, and I think Lokomotiv are worth backing here at much longer odds of nearly 5.0. Asian Handicap odds look fairly attractive at the moment - Lokomotiv Moscow AH0 3.58 Marathon Stake: 2 points Result: 2-2 Bet void Stake: 2 points Return: 2 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted April 4, 2015 Author Share Posted April 4, 2015 Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 84 bets, -5% yield Sat 4th April 15.00 Sheffield Wednesday v Huddersfield A yorkshire derby where Huddersfield have a good recent record, having won three and drawn one of their last five games h2h at Wednesday's Hillsborough ground. I think they are decent value to get something today. Huddersfield +0.5 1.77 188Bet Stake: 2 points Result: 1-1 Bet won :ok Stake: 2 points Return: 3.54 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted April 5, 2015 Author Share Posted April 5, 2015 Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 84 bets, -5% yield League One Bristol City v Swindon Tuesday 7th April 19.45 A top of the table clash in the West Country. City look virtually certain of promotion, as they are 13 points clear of 3rd-placed MK Dons with 6/7 games to play. Swindon are in 4th place and have one or two games in hand on the other promotion and playoff contenders. They look sure to get at least a playoff place, but also have a chance of beating Preston and MK Dons to second place. Swindon have a fair record at Bristol City and will be taking around 900 fans to the game according the their fans forum. Bristol and Swindon are 40 miles apart and well connected by fast trains and the M4 motorway. As it's a derby-type game and Swindon need the points more than Bristol, I think their odds of 3.6 are worth taking, possibly on the handicap. There are signs that Bristol City may be easing off - they have drawn three of their last five games. Swindon lost at home to promotion rivals MK Dons yesterday, and I imagine they will put up a good fight for a result here. Swindon +0.25 2.03 188Bet Stake: 2 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted April 5, 2015 Author Share Posted April 5, 2015 Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 84 bets, -5% yield League One Sheff Utd v Doncaster Tuesday 7th April 19.45 Another Yorkshire derby. Sheffield United look set for the playoffs and Doncaster are likely to miss out. Neither club is under much pressure for points from this game, so the fact that it's a derby is the main point of interest. I think Doncaster are decent value to get something from the game. They haven't lost at Sheffield Utd in five games, drawing three and winning two. Doncaster +0.5 2.01 188Bet Stake: 2 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted April 7, 2015 Author Share Posted April 7, 2015 Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 84 bets, -5% yield League One Bristol City v Swindon Tuesday 7th April 19.45 A top of the table clash in the West Country. City look virtually certain of promotion, as they are 13 points clear of 3rd-placed MK Dons with 6/7 games to play. Swindon are in 4th place and have one or two games in hand on the other promotion and playoff contenders. They look sure to get at least a playoff place, but also have a chance of beating Preston and MK Dons to second place. Swindon have a fair record at Bristol City and will be taking around 900 fans to the game according the their fans forum. Bristol and Swindon are 40 miles apart and well connected by fast trains and the M4 motorway. As it's a derby-type game and Swindon need the points more than Bristol, I think their odds of 3.6 are worth taking, possibly on the handicap. There are signs that Bristol City may be easing off - they have drawn three of their last five games. Swindon lost at home to promotion rivals MK Dons yesterday, and I imagine they will put up a good fight for a result here. Swindon +0.25 2.03 188Bet Stake: 2 points Result: 3-0 Bet lost Stake: 2 points Return: nil The BBC report suggests Swindon were unlucky here despite the scoreline - http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/32126391 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted April 7, 2015 Author Share Posted April 7, 2015 Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 84 bets, -5% yield League One Sheff Utd v Doncaster Tuesday 7th April 19.45 Another Yorkshire derby. Sheffield United look set for the playoffs and Doncaster are likely to miss out. Neither club is under much pressure for points from this game, so the fact that it's a derby is the main point of interest. I think Doncaster are decent value to get something from the game. They haven't lost at Sheffield Utd in five games, drawing three and winning two. Doncaster +0.5 2.01 188Bet Stake: 2 points Result: 3-2 Bet lost Stake: 2 points Return: nil Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted April 10, 2015 Author Share Posted April 10, 2015 Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 104 bets, -8.5% yield Ireland Premier Dundalk v Drogheda Friday 10th April 19.45 This is called the 'Louth derby', both sides being from County Louth between Dublin and Belfast. Dundalk are the title holders and lead the table at the moment. I think they are likely to win tonight, but experience has taught me the odds of 17.0 on Drogheda could well be too long and are worth taking in some form. The last time these two played at Dundalk, Dundalk won 7-0. But looking back, most games are fairly tight and historically, 7-0 was out of line with the pattern. Drogheda win a lot of the home games, and have won one and drawn one of their last five games at Dundalk. http://extratime.ie/fixtures/detail/27243/0/ Drogheda AH0 12.0 Stake: 1 point Drogheda +1AH 3.24 Stake: 2 points Drogheda +2AH 1.67 Stake: 5 points All with Marathon Total stake: 8 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted April 10, 2015 Author Share Posted April 10, 2015 Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 104 bets, -8.5% yield I've realised I broke my own staking standard with the above bet - total 8 points instead of 2 points per bet. If I'd thought about it, I think I would have made the bet the +1AH one at 2 points. But I'm going to leave it for now - and I will try to make all bets 2 points in future for consistency, and lower risk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted April 10, 2015 Author Share Posted April 10, 2015 Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 104 bets, -8.5% yield Ireland Premier Dundalk v Drogheda Friday 10th April 19.45 This is called the 'Louth derby', both sides being from County Louth between Dublin and Belfast. Dundalk are the title holders and lead the table at the moment. I think they are likely to win tonight, but experience has taught me the odds of 17.0 on Drogheda could well be too long and are worth taking in some form. The last time these two played at Dundalk, Dundalk won 7-0. But looking back, most games are fairly tight and historically, 7-0 was out of line with the pattern. Drogheda win a lot of the home games, and have won one and drawn one of their last five games at Dundalk. http://extratime.ie/fixtures/detail/27243/0/ Drogheda AH0 12.0 Stake: 1 point Drogheda +1AH 3.24 Stake: 2 points Drogheda +2AH 1.67 Stake: 5 points All with Marathon Total stake: 8 points Result: Dundalk 1 Drogheda 0 Bet 1 lost Bet 2 void, returns 2 points Bet 3 won, returns 8.35 points Total stake: 8 points Total return: 10.35 points Profit/loss = +2.35 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted April 14, 2015 Author Share Posted April 14, 2015 Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 104 bets, -8.5% yield Southern League Paulton v Frome Tuesday 14th April 19.45 A West Country derby in the Southern League Premier tonight. The clubs are both south of Bath, about 12 miles apart. Paulton are in 10th place, just above mid-table. Frome are just 3 points above the relegation zone with 5 games to play, so they need points more from this game. Frome have won one and drawn one of their last two games at Paulton. I'm happy to take Frome at long odds tonight. Frome DNB 3.88 Marathon Stake: 2 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted April 14, 2015 Author Share Posted April 14, 2015 Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 104 bets, -8.5% yield Southern League Paulton v Frome Tuesday 14th April 19.45 A West Country derby in the Southern League Premier tonight. The clubs are both south of Bath, about 12 miles apart. Paulton are in 10th place, just above mid-table. Frome are just 3 points above the relegation zone with 5 games to play, so they need points more from this game. Frome have won one and drawn one of their last two games at Paulton. I'm happy to take Frome at long odds tonight. Frome DNB 3.88 Marathon Stake: 2 points Result: Paulton 1 Frome 0 Bet lost Stake: 2 points Return: nil Profit/loss = -2 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted April 17, 2015 Author Share Posted April 17, 2015 Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 104 bets, -8.5% yield France Ligue 1 Lyon v St Etienne Sunday 19th April 20.00 This is a big derby in France. St Etienne tend to well at Lyon, having won two and drawn two of their last five games there. Both sides are doing well this season. Lyon lead the table at the moment, and St Etienne are fifth (the last Europa League place), but could make the top three for a place in the Champions League. I think St Etienne are worth backing at current odds, and will take the 2-way handicap price here - St Etienne +0.5 1.99 188Bet Stake: 2 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted April 19, 2015 Author Share Posted April 19, 2015 Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 104 bets, -8.5% yield France Ligue 1 Lyon v St Etienne Sunday 19th April 20.00 This is a big derby in France. St Etienne tend to well at Lyon, having won two and drawn two of their last five games there. Both sides are doing well this season. Lyon lead the table at the moment, and St Etienne are fifth (the last Europa League place), but could make the top three for a place in the Champions League. I think St Etienne are worth backing at current odds, and will take the 2-way handicap price here - St Etienne +0.5 1.99 188Bet Stake: 2 points Result: Lyon 2 St Etienne 2 Bet won :ok Stake: 2 points Return: 3.98 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted April 24, 2015 Author Share Posted April 24, 2015 Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 104 bets, -8.5% yield ================ Sun 19th April 2015 22.30 Summary so far stake: 108 bets @ 2 points = 216 1 bet @ 8 points Total stake: 224 points Return: 216.19 points 109 bets Yield = -3.5% ================ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted April 30, 2015 Author Share Posted April 30, 2015 Re: Louis' Local Derbies, 109 bets, -3.5% yield ============ Ireland First Shelbourne v UCD Friday 1st May 20.00 A Dublin derby in the Irish First Division. I believe Shelbourne are the bigger club, but UCD have a good recent record at Shelbourne's ground, regularly picking up draws or wins. UCD have won three and drawn one of their last five games there. I think UCD are worth backing here on the 2-way Asian Handicap at decent looking odds. UCD +0.25 1.92 188Bet Stake: 2 points ============= League Two Luton v Stevenage Sat 2nd May 15.00 1.98 4.33 h2h 0/0/1 These two clubs are 15 miles apart. Realistically, there is nothing to play for here except local pride on the last day of the season. (Luton could theoretically overtake Plymouth for the last playoff place if they win and Plymouth lose, but they also need an 8-goal swing to do this). Stevenage are in better form than their rivals. Stevenage won their only recent league game at Luton in 2009. I think they are good value to get something here. Stevenage or draw 1.95 365 Stake: 2 points ============= Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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